Multivariate Appoximations to Portfolio Return Distribution

This article proposes a three-step procedure to estimate portfolio return distributions under the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC) distribution. The method combines quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for conditional means and variances and the method of moments (MM) estimation for the rest of the density parameters, including the correlation coefficients. The procedure involves consistent estimates even under density misspecification and solves the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’ of multivariate modelling. Furthermore, the use of a MGC distribution represents a flexible and general approximation to the true distribution of portfolio returns and accounts for all its empirical regularities. An application of such procedure is performed for a portfolio composed of three European indices as an illustration. The MM estimation of the MGC (MGC-MM) is compared with the traditional maximum likelihood of both the MGC and multivariate Student’s t (benchmark) densities. A simulation on Value-at-Risk (VaR) performance for an equally weighted portfolio at 1% and 5% confidence indicates that the MGC-MM method provides reasonable approximations to the true empirical VaR. Therefore, the procedure seems to be a useful tool for risk managers and practitioners.

Return Migration in the Ecuadorian and Bolivian population: motivations, strategies and discourses

This article analyses the motivations for return migration among the Ecuadorians and Bolivians who, after living in Spain, returned to their countries of origin during the economic crisis that started in 2008. From the analysis of 22 interviews in-depth which took place in Ecuador and 38 in Bolivia to women, men and young people from migrant families, this decision-making process is shown to be embedded into a gendered dynamics of relationships. Particular detail is given to affective and economic elements that had an influence on the decision to return, as well as to the strategies deployed to project their readjustment back in origin. Males and females occupy differential positions within the family, work and social circle, their expectations being built in a gendered manner. Despite the fact migration has brought women greater economic power within the family group, their reintegration upon return redefines their role as main managers in the household and the dynamics that allow their social reproduction. Men, for their part, aspire to refresh their role as providers in spite of their frail labour position upon return. Social mobility for females is passed on through generations by a strong investment on education for their daughters and sons, while for males this mobility revolves around setting up family businesses and around their demonstrative abilities.

Gendered Responses to Global Crisis: Circular Migration and Return among Ecuadorian Families in Spain and Ecuador

This paper analyzes the impact of Spain’s economic crisis on social reproduction strategies of Ecuadorian migrant families in Madrid and Quito. The paper analyzes circular migration experiences and more permanent returns to Ecuador. I argue that these strategies and migrants' greater or lesser capabilities to move between different migration destinations show significant gender differences. On the one hand, men and women make a differential use of their migratory status to deploy transnational strategies and expand their mobility. On the other hand, migrants’ degree of mobility and flexibility with regard to the labor market and transnational social reproduction are derivative of a specific gendered order and sexual division of labor.

To Madagascar and back: long-distance, return migration across open ocean by a pregnant female bull shark Carcharhinus leucas

A large, pregnant, female bull shark Carcharhinus leucas was tracked migrating from Seychelles across open ocean to south-east Madagascar, c. 2000 km away, and back again. In Madagascar, the shark spent a prolonged period shallower than 5 m, consistent with entering estuarine habitat to pup, and upon return to Seychelles the shark was slender and no longer gravid. This represents an unprecedented return migration across the open ocean for a C. leucas and highlights the need for international collaboration to manage the regional C. leucas population sustainably.

To Madagascar and back: long-distance, return migration across open ocean by a pregnant female bull shark Carcharhinus leucas

A large, pregnant, female bull shark Carcharhinus leucas was tracked migrating from Seychelles across open ocean to south-east Madagascar, c. 2000 km away, and back again. In Madagascar, the shark spent a prolonged period shallower than 5 m, consistent with entering estuarine habitat to pup, and upon return to Seychelles the shark was slender and no longer gravid. This represents an unprecedented return migration across the open ocean for a C. leucas and highlights the need for international collaboration to manage the regional C. leucas population sustainably.

Japan´s energy future: Between a return to nuclear energy and a turn to renewables

After the triple disaster of 11 March 2011, Japan is at an energy crossroad. In the short and medium run it depends on fossil fuel imports to ensure its energy security, but the long term will be determined by the decisions taken at present. For Japan energy security is a national security challenge, as stated in its National Security Strategy. The article reviews the Japanese nuclear path, studies the factors shaping the Japanese electricity market and analyzes the current energy situation. Moreover, it also assesses the principles that have marked Japan’s energy policy and the two last Strategic Energy Plans -one prior to Fukushima and the other after it- before tackling the debate on the optimal future energy mix that Japan should adopt to meet its energy security trilemma, marked by its environmental commitment.

Abnormal Pedestrian Trajectory analysis based on arbitrary-length clustering

This papers examines the use of trajectory distance measures and clustering techniques to define normal
and abnormal trajectories in the context of pedestrian tracking in public spaces. In order to detect abnormal
trajectories, what is meant by a normal trajectory in a given scene is firstly defined. Then every trajectory
that deviates from this normality is classified as abnormal. By combining Dynamic Time Warping and a
modified K-Means algorithms for arbitrary-length data series, we have developed an algorithm for trajectory
clustering and abnormality detection. The final system performs with an overall accuracy of 83% and 75%
when tested in two different standard datasets.

The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns

We study the impact of S&P index membership on REIT stock returns. Given the hybrid nature of REITs, their returns may become more like those of other indexed stocks and less like those of their underlying properties. The existing literature does not offer clear predictions on these potential outcomes. Taking advantage of the inclusion of REITs in major S&P indexes starting in 2001, we find that shared index membership significantly increases the correlation between REIT returns after controlling for the stock characteristics that determine index membership. We also document that index membership enhances the link between REIT stock returns and the performance of the underlying real estate, consistent with improved pricing efficiency. REIT investors appear to be able to enjoy the benefits of improved visibility and liquidity associated with index membership as well as the exposure to underlying real estate markets and the related benefits of diversification.

Omega-3 Fatty Acids are Related to Abnormal Emotion Processing in Adolescent Boys with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Background In addition to the core symptoms, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with poor emotion regulation. There is some evidence that children and young adults with ADHD have lower omega-3 levels and that supplementation with omega-3 can improve both ADHD and affective symptoms. We therefore investigated differences between ADHD and non-ADHD children in omega-3/6 fatty acid plasma levels and the relationship between those indices and emotion-elicited event-related potentials (ERPs). Methods Children/adolescents with (n=31) and without ADHD (n=32) were compared in their plasma omega-3/6 indices and corresponding ERPs during an emotion processing task. Results Children with ADHD had lower mean omega-3/6 and ERP abnormalities in emotion processing, independent of emotional valence relative to control children. ERP abnormalities were significantly associated with lower omega-3 levels in the ADHD group. Conclusions The findings reveal for the first time that lower omega-3 fatty acids are associated with impaired emotion processing in ADHD children.

Return to Hanging Rock: Lost Children in a Gothic Landscape

Using the philosophical position of phenomenology this article examines the ways in which ideas of wildness combine with Australian Gothic tropes such as the white colonial lost child and the bush as a haunted locale to compose key features of an Australian Ecogothic. Joan Lindsay’s enigmatic novel Picnic at Hanging Rock (1967) has prompted scholars such as Lesley Kathryn Hawkes to describe how in Australian literature for both adults and children ‘the environment is far more than a setting or backdrop against which the plot takes place’ (Hawkes, 2011,67). On St Valentine’s Day in 1900 three young Australian girls and their teacher disappear from a school picnic at the ancient site of Mount Macedon in Victoria. The analysis, which focuses on Lindsay’s posthumously published chapter eighteen (1987) examines how elements of the material, sensing world combine with the mythological or sacred to connect the human protagonists with the gothic landscape they inhabit. The resulting intersubjectivity problematizes colonial ideology and unsettles notions of national identity. Using the philosophical position of phenomenology this article examines the ways in which ideas of wildness combine with Australian Gothic tropes such as the white colonial lost child and the bush as a haunted locale to compose key features of an Australian Ecogothic. Joan Lindsay’s enigmatic novel Picnic at Hanging Rock (1967) has prompted scholars such as Lesley Kathryn Hawkes to describe how in Australian literature for both adults and children ‘the environment is far more than a setting or backdrop against which the plot takes place’ (Hawkes, 2011,67). On St Valentine’s Day in 1900 three young Australian girls and their teacher disappear from a school picnic at the ancient site of Mount Macedon in Victoria. The analysis, which focuses on Lindsay’s posthumously published chapter eighteen (1987) examines how elements of the material, sensing world combine with the mythological or sacred to connect the human protagonists with the gothic landscape they inhabit. The resulting intersubjectivity problematizes colonial ideology and unsettles notions of national identity.

Social Return on Investment: Valuing Health Outcomes or Promoting Economic Values?

Interventions and activities that influence health are often concerned with intangible outcomes that are difficult to value despite their potential significance. Social Return on Investment is an evaluation framework that explores all aspects of change and expresses these in comparable terms. It combines qualitative narratives and quantitative measurements with a financial approach to enable outcomes that can otherwise be overlooked or undervalued to be incorporated appropriately. This article presents Social Return on Investment as an effective tool for supporting the development of a holistic appreciation of how interventions impact on the health and well-being of individuals, communities and societies.

Minimum Data Set (MDS) Section Q Education: Helping People Return to the Community, February 12, 2014

Explanation of Minimum Data Set (MDS), implementation of Section Q, overview of the program, local contacts and functions, Referral Agency information, role and assistance provided by Long-Term care Ombudsman