Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Influence of a narrow depth gradient and season on the morphology, phenology, and epibiosis of the brown alga Sargassum cymosum

Temporal and spatial fluctuations of environmental parameters are normally assigned as causes of variations in morpho-phenological characters of seaweeds and in their epibionts, but formal tests of such hypotheses are lacking, especially in narrow gradients. The present study evaluated the influence of a very small depth gradient (1 to 3 m) and of subtle seasonality characteristic of tropical areas on morpho-phenological traits and on the occurrence of sessile epiphytic organisms using a controlled orthogonal sampling design in a sublittoral population of the tropical brown alga Sargassum cymosum. Four temporal samples were obtained over a one-year period at three depths using nine replicates. The wet weight, maximum length, number of primary and secondary branches, and proportion of secondary branches with receptacles were recorded. Epibiosis was estimated by visual evaluation of percentage cover on secondary branches. Algal morphology varied as a function of the period of the year (weaker effect) and depth (stronger effect) but in different ways for each variable analysed. In general, fronds tended to be shorter, heavier, and more ramified in shallower areas. In relation to time, the morphological characters tended mostly to present higher values in January (summer) and/or April (autumn). Frequency of receptacles did not depend on algal morphology and depth at all but varied in time, although only in the deepest area. Epibiosis also did not depend on algal morphology but varied in relation to time (stronger effect) and, to a lesser extent, depth (weaker effect). The effect of time upon epibiosis also depended on the biological group analysed. These data support the hypothesis that algal morphology varies in relation to period of the year and depth, even under small temporal and spatial environmenal gradients.

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf, Brazil, to synoptic winds

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf (SPCS) to synoptic wind forcing has been analyzed. Two different methods are used for this purpose, one based on hydrographic data, bottom topography, and geographical characteristics, and a second on analyzing currentmeter data directly and using empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods show similar results for an essentially barotropic shelf. The SPCS response in the subinertial frequency band appears to be trapped on the continental shelf. Numerical experiments have also been carried out showing results that qualitatively agree with the observations, including the velocity component parallel to the coastline.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Design of a Comb Generator for High Capacity Coherent-WDM Systems

This paper presents a theoretical model developed for estimating the power, the optical signal to noise ratio and the number of generated carriers in a comb generator, having as a reference the minimum optical signal do noise ratio at the receiver input, for a given fiber link. Based on the recirculating frequency shifting technique, the generator relies on the use of coherent and orthogonal multi-carriers (Coherent-WDM) that makes use of a single laser source (seed) for feeding high capacity (above 100 Gb/s) systems. The theoretical model has been validated by an experimental demonstration, where 23 comb lines with an optical signal to noise ratio ranging from 25 to 33 dB, in a spectral window of similar to 3.5 nm, are obtained.

A note on the local power of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests

This paper examines the local power of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient tests under the presence of a scalar parameter, phi say, that is orthogonal to the remaining parameters. We show that some of the coefficients that define the local powers remain unchanged regardless of whether phi is known or needs to be estimated, where as the others can be written as the sum of two terms, the first of which being the corresponding term obtained as if phi were known, and the second, an additional term yielded by the fact that phi is unknown. The contribution of each set of parameters on the local powers of the tests can then be examined. Various implications of our main result are stated and discussed. Several examples are presented for illustrative purposes

Bourgin-Yang version of the Borsuk-Ulam theorem for Z(pk)-equivariant maps

Let G = Z(pk) be a cyclic group of prime power order and let V and W be orthogonal representations of G with V-G = W-G = W-G = {0}. Let S(V) be the sphere of V and suppose f: S(V) -> W is a G-equivariant mapping. We give an estimate for the dimension of the set f(-1){0} in terms of V and W. This extends the Bourgin-Yang version of the Borsuk-Ulam theorem to this class of groups. Using this estimate, we also estimate the size of the G-coincidences set of a continuous map from S(V) into a real vector space W'.

Kleiner's theorem for unitary representations of posets

A subspace representation of a poset S = {s(1), ..., S-t} is given by a system (V; V-1, ..., V-t) consisting of a vector space V and its sub-spaces V-i such that V-i subset of V-j if s(i) (sic) S-j. For each real-valued vector chi = (chi(1), ..., chi(t)) with positive components, we define a unitary chi-representation of S as a system (U: U-1, ..., U-t) that consists of a unitary space U and its subspaces U-i such that U-i subset of U-j if S-i (sic) S-j and satisfies chi 1 P-1 + ... + chi P-t(t) = 1, in which P-i is the orthogonal projection onto U-i. We prove that S has a finite number of unitarily nonequivalent indecomposable chi-representations for each weight chi if and only if S has a finite number of nonequivalent indecomposable subspace representations; that is, if and only if S contains any of Kleiner's critical posets. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust and optimal adjustment of Power System Stabilizers through Linear Matrix Inequalities

This work presents the application of Linear Matrix Inequalities to the robust and optimal adjustment of Power System Stabilizers with pre-defined structure. Results of some tests show that gain and zeros adjustments are sufficient to guarantee robust stability and performance with respect to various operating points. Making use of the flexible structure of LMI's, we propose an algorithm that minimizes the norm of the controllers gain matrix while it guarantees the damping factor specified for the closed loop system, always using a controller with flexible structure. The technique used here is the pole placement, whose objective is to place the poles of the closed loop system in a specific region of the complex plane. Results of tests with a nine-machine system are presented and discussed, in order to validate the algorithm proposed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stripe-tetragonal phase transition in the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions: Partition function zeros approach

We have performed multicanonical simulations to study the critical behavior of the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions. This study concerns the thermodynamic phase transitions in the range of the interaction delta where the phase characterized by striped configurations of width h = 1 is observed. Controversial results obtained from local update algorithms have been reported for this region, including the claimed existence of a second-order phase transition line that becomes first order above a tricritical point located somewhere between delta = 0.85 and 1. Our analysis relies on the complex partition function zeros obtained with high statistics from multicanonical simulations. Finite size scaling relations for the leading partition function zeros yield critical exponents. that are clearly consistent with a single second-order phase transition line, thus excluding such a tricritical point in that region of the phase diagram. This conclusion is further supported by analysis of the specific heat and susceptibility of the orientational order parameter.

Spectral fluctuation and 1/f(alpha) noise in the energy level statistics of interacting trapped bosons

It has been recently shown numerically that the transition from integrability to chaos in quantum systems and the corresponding spectral fluctuations are characterized by 1/f(alpha) noise with 1 <= alpha <= 2. The system of interacting trapped bosons is inhomogeneous and complex. The presence of an external harmonic trap makes it more interesting as, in the atomic trap, the bosons occupy partly degenerate single-particle states. Earlier theoretical and experimental results show that at zero temperature the low-lying levels are of a collective nature and high-lying excitations are of a single-particle nature. We observe that for few bosons, the P(s) distribution shows the Shnirelman peak, which exhibits a large number of quasidegenerate states. For a large number of bosons the low-lying levels are strongly affected by the interatomic interaction, and the corresponding level fluctuation shows a transition to a Wigner distribution with an increase in particle number. It does not follow Gaussian orthogonal ensemble random matrix predictions. For high-lying levels we observe the uncorrelated Poisson distribution. Thus it may be a very realistic system to prove that 1/f(alpha) noise is ubiquitous in nature.

Understanding the correlates of adolescents' dietary intake patterns. A multivariate analysis

We investigated dietary intake patterns (DIP) in adolescents (14-18 year-olds) and the association with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and lifestyle variables. This school-based survey was carried out among high school students from the city of Maringa in the state of Parana (PR), Brazil (2007). The sample included 991 students (54.5% girls) from high schools. DIPs were investigated by the frequency of weekly consumption of each food group: vegetables, fruit, rice, beans, fried food, sweet food, milk, soda, meat, eggs, alcoholic drinks. Independent variables were: demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and lifestyle variables. DIPS were identified using principal component analysis with orthogonal rotation (varimax). Three components were extracted. Component 1 (fried foods, sweets and soft drinks) was positively associated with not having breakfast for girls and dinner for boys. Moreover, component 2 (consumption of fruit and vegetables) was positively associated with having breakfast at home for boys and number of meals for girls. Component 3 (beans, eggs and meat) was positively associated with having lunch, employment and sedentary behavior level for girls. However, it was negatively associated with having lunch and dinner for boys. Adolescents who have healthier eating patterns also had other healthier behaviors regardless of gender. However, factors associated with dietary patterns differ between boys and girls. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of tributyltin exposure in hermit crabs: Clibanarius vittatus as a model

Tributyltin (TBT) contamination affects the reproductive system of many species of invertebrates worldwide. The present study was designed to evaluate the effects of exposure to TBT pollution on the reproduction of the hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus. An orthogonal experiment was designed with two treatments: contamination (with or without TBT in the food) and crab sex (males and females). The animals were reared in the laboratory for nine months, and macroscopic and histological analyses of reproductive organs were carried out after the end of the experiment. Tributyltin was recorded in exposed crabs, but no morphological alterations were detected in the gonads of males, regardless of whether they were exposed to TBT. In contrast, females exposed to TBT displayed disorganization and atrophy of their ovaries, thus directly affecting reproduction in this hermit crab species. This effect observed in female hermit crabs may harm populations located in harbor regions, where TBT concentration is high, even after the worldwide TBT ban.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy-level statistics of interacting trapped bosons

It is a well-established fact that statistical properties of energy-level spectra are the most efficient tool to characterize nonintegrable quantum systems. The statistical behavior of different systems such as complex atoms, atomic nuclei, two-dimensional Hamiltonians, quantum billiards, and noninteracting many bosons has been studied. The study of statistical properties and spectral fluctuations in interacting many-boson systems has developed interest in this direction. We are especially interested in weakly interacting trapped bosons in the context of Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC) as the energy spectrum shows a transition from a collective nature to a single-particle nature with an increase in the number of levels. However this has received less attention as it is believed that the system may exhibit Poisson-like fluctuations due to the existence of an external harmonic trap. Here we compute numerically the energy levels of the zero-temperature many-boson systems which are weakly interacting through the van der Waals potential and are confined in the three-dimensional harmonic potential. We study the nearest-neighbor spacing distribution and the spectral rigidity by unfolding the spectrum. It is found that an increase in the number of energy levels for repulsive BEC induces a transition from a Wigner-like form displaying level repulsion to the Poisson distribution for P(s). It does not follow the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble prediction. For repulsive interaction, the lower levels are correlated and manifest level-repulsion. For intermediate levels P(s) shows mixed statistics, which clearly signifies the existence of two energy scales: external trap and interatomic interaction, whereas for very high levels the trapping potential dominates, generating a Poisson distribution. Comparison with mean-field results for lower levels are also presented. For attractive BEC near the critical point we observe the Shnirelman-like peak near s = 0, which signifies the presence of a large number of quasidegenerate states.