Cognitive Predictors and Risk Factors of PTSD Following Stillbirth: A Short-Term Longitudinal Study.

This short-term longitudinal study investigated cognitive predictors and risk factors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in mothers following stillbirth. After a stillbirth at ≥ 24 weeks gestational age, 65 women completed structured clinical interviews and questionnaires assessing PTSD symptoms, cognitive predictors (appraisals, dysfunctional strategies), and risk factors (perceived social support, trauma history, obstetric history) at 3 and 6 months. PTSD symptoms decreased between 3 and 6 months (Cohen's d ranged .34-.52). Regression analyses also revealed a specific positive relationship between Rumination and concurrent frequency of PTSD symptoms (β = .45). Negative Self-View and Negative World-View related positively and Self-Blame related negatively to concurrent number of PTSD symptoms (β = .48, .44, -.45, respectively). Suppression and Distraction predicted a decrease and Numbing predicted an increase in time-lagged number of PTSD symptoms (β = -.33, -.28, .30, respectively). Risk factors for PTSD symptoms were younger age (β = -.25), lower income (β = -.29), fewer previous pregnancies (β = -.31), and poorer perceived social support (β = -.26). Interventions addressing negative appraisals, dysfunctional strategies, and social support are recommended for mothers with PTSD following stillbirth. Knowledge of cognitive predictors and risk factors of PTSD may inform the development of a screening instrument.

Statins are associated with decreased mortality risk after status epilepticus.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statins display anti-inflammatory and anti-epileptogenic properties in animal models, and may reduce the epilepsy risk in elderly humans; however, a possible modulating role on outcome in patients with status epilepticus (SE) has not been assessed. METHODS: This cohort study was based on a prospective registry including all consecutive adults with incident SE treated in our center between April 2006 and September 2012. SE outcome was categorized at hospital discharge into 'return to baseline', 'new disability' and 'mortality'. The role of potential predictors, including statins treatment on admission, was evaluated using a multinomial logistic regression model. RESULTS: Amongst 427 patients identified, information on statins was available in 413 (97%). Mean age was 60.9 (±17.8) years; 201 (49%) were women; 211 (51%) had a potentially fatal SE etiology; and 191 (46%) experienced generalized-convulsive or non-convulsive SE in coma. Statins (simvastatin, atorvastatin or pravastatin) were prescribed prior to admission in 76 (18%) subjects, mostly elderly. Whilst 208 (50.4%) patients returned to baseline, 58 (14%) died. After adjustment for established SE outcome predictors (age, etiology, SE severity score), statins correlated significantly with lower mortality (relative risk ratio 0.38, P = 0.046). CONCLUSION: This study suggests for the first time that exposure to statins before an SE episode is related to its outcome, involving a possible anti-epileptogenic role. Other studies are needed to confirm this intriguing finding.

Mediterranean diet and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis of three italian case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Some components of the Mediterranean diet have favourable effects on endometrial cancer, and the Mediterranean diet as a whole has been shown to have a beneficial role on various neoplasms. METHODS: We analysed this issue pooling data from three case-control studies carried out between 1983 and 2006 in various Italian areas and in the Swiss Canton of Vaud. Cases were 1411 women with incident, histologically confirmed endometrial cancer, and controls were 3668 patients in hospital for acute diseases. We measured the adherence to the Mediterranean diet using a Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), based on the nine dietary components characteristics of this diet, that is, high intake of vegetables, fruits/nuts, cereals, legumes, fish; low intake of dairy products and meat; high monounsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratio; and moderate alcohol intake. We estimated the odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for increasing levels of the MDS (varying from 0, no adherence, to 9, maximum adherence) using multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major confounding factors. RESULTS: The adjusted OR for a 6-9 components of the MDS (high adherence) compared with 0-3 (low adherence) was 0.43 (95% CI 0.34-0.56). The OR for an increment of one component of MDS diet was 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88). The association was consistent in strata of various covariates, although somewhat stronger in older women, in never oral contraceptive users and in hormone-replacement therapy users. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence for a beneficial role of the Mediterranean diet on endometrial cancer risk, suggesting a favourable effect of a combination of foods rich in antioxidants, fibres, phytochemicals, and unsaturated fatty acids.

Association study of lipoprotein(a) genetic markers, traditional risk factors, and coronary heart disease in HIV-1-infected patients.

Objectives: General population studies have shown associations between copy number variation (CNV) of the LPA gene Kringle-IV type-2 (KIV-2) coding region, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6415084 in LPA and coronary heart disease (CHD). Because risk factors for HIV-infected patients may differ from the general population, we aimed to assess whether these potential associations also occur in HIV-infected patients. Methods: A unicenter, retrospective, case-control (1:3) study. Eighteen HIV-patients with confirmed diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were adjusted for age, gender, and time since HIV diagnosis to 54 HIV-patients without CHD. After gDNA extraction from frozen blood, both CNV and SNP genotyping were performed using real-time quantitative PCR. All genetic and non-genetic variables for AMI were assessed in a logistic regression analysis. Results: Our results did not confirm any association in terms of lipoprotein(a) LPA structural genetic variants when comparing KIV-2 CNV (p = 0.67) and SNP genotypes (p = 0.44) between AMI cases and controls. However, traditional risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and CD4(+) T cell count showed association (p < 0.05) with CHD. Conclusion: Although significant associations of AMI with diabetes, hypertension and CD4(+) T cell count in HIV-patients were found, this study could not confirm the feasibility neither of KIV-2 CNV nor rs6415084 in LPA as genetic markers of CHD in HIV-infected patients.Highlights:● Individuals with HIV infection are at higher risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) than the non-infected population.● Our results showed no evidence of LPA structural genetic variants associated with CHD in HIV-1-infected patients.● Associations were found between diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, CD4(+) T cell count, and CHD.● The clinical usefulness of these biomarkers to predict CHD in HIV-1-infected population remains unproven.● Further studies are needed to assess the contribution of common genetic variations to CHD in HIV-infected individuals.

Prevalence and risk factors for therapy escalation in ulcerative colitis in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Physicians traditionally treat ulcerative colitis (UC) using a step-up approach. Given the paucity of data, we aimed to assess the cumulative probability of UC-related need for step-up therapy and to identify escalation-associated risk factors. METHODS: Patients with UC enrolled into the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analyzed. The following steps from the bottom to the top of the therapeutic pyramid were examined: (1) 5-aminosalicylic acid and/or rectal corticosteroids, (2) systemic corticosteroids, (3) immunomodulators (IM) (azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine, methotrexate), (4) TNF antagonists, (5) calcineurin inhibitors, and (6) colectomy. RESULTS: Data on 996 patients with UC with a median disease duration of 9 years were examined. The point estimates of cumulative use of different treatments at years 1, 5, 10, and 20 after UC diagnosis were 91%, 96%, 96%, and 97%, respectively, for 5-ASA and/or rectal corticosteroids, 63%, 69%, 72%, and 79%, respectively, for systemic corticosteroids, 43%, 57%, 59%, and 64%, respectively, for IM, 15%, 28%, and 35% (up to year 10 only), respectively, for TNF antagonists, 5%, 9%, 11%, and 12%, respectively, for calcineurin inhibitors, 1%, 5%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, for colectomy. The presence of extraintestinal manifestations and extended disease location (at least left-sided colitis) were identified as risk factors for step-up in therapy with systemic corticosteroids, IM, TNF antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, and surgery. Cigarette smoking at diagnosis was protective against surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of extraintestinal manifestations, left-sided colitis, and extensive colitis/pancolitis at the time of diagnosis were associated with use of systemic corticosteroids, IM, TNF antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, and colectomy during the disease course.

Cardiovascular mechanisms of death in severe COPD exacerbation: time to think and act beyond guidelines.

Three important studies on acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD)have been published in Thorax. Two of them, by Chang et al1(see page 764) and Hoiset et al2 (see page 775), show the importance of the cardiac biomarkers troponin T and NT-BNP (Nterminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) as strong predictors of the increased risk of death of patients hospitalised because of ECOPD.1 2.....

Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Is diabetes a risk factor for a severe clinical presentation of dengue?--review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The mean age of acute dengue has undergone a shift towards older ages. This fact points towards the relevance of assessing the influence of age-related comorbidities, such as diabetes, on the clinical presentation of dengue episodes. Identification of factors associated with a severe presentation is of high relevance, because timely treatment is the most important intervention to avert complications and death. This review summarizes and evaluates the published evidence on the association between diabetes and the risk of a severe clinical presentation of dengue. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: A systematic literature review was conducted using the MEDLINE database to access any relevant association between dengue and diabetes. Five case-control studies (4 hospital-based, 1 population-based) compared the prevalence of diabetes (self-reported or abstracted from medical records) of persons with dengue (acute or past; controls) and patients with severe clinical manifestations. All except one study were conducted before 2009 and all studies collected information towards WHO 1997 classification system. The reported odds ratios were formally summarized by random-effects meta-analyses. A diagnosis of diabetes was associated with an increased risk for a severe clinical presentation of dengue (OR 1.75; 95% CI: 1.08-2.84, p = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Large prospective studies that systematically and objectively obtain relevant signs and symptoms of dengue fever episodes as well as of hyperglycemia in the past, and at the time of dengue diagnosis, are needed to properly address the effect of diabetes on the clinical presentation of an acute dengue fever episode. The currently available epidemiological evidence is very limited and only suggestive. The increasing global prevalence of both dengue and diabetes justifies further studies. At this point, confirmation of dengue infection as early as possible in diabetes patients with fever if living in dengue endemic regions seems justified. The presence of this co-morbidity may warrant closer observation for glycemic control and adapted fluid management to diminish the risk for a severe clinical presentation of dengue.

External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.

A common BACE1 polymorphism is a risk factor for sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

The β site APP cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1) is the rate-limiting β-secretase enzyme in the amyloidogenic processing of APP and Aβ formation, and therefore it has a prominent role in Alzheimer"s disease (AD) pathology. Recent evidence suggests that the prion protein (PrP) interacts directly with BACE1 regulating its β-secretase activity. Moreover, PrP has been proposed as the cellular receptor involved in the impairment of synaptic plasticity and toxicity caused by Aβ oligomers. Provided that common pathophysiologic mechanisms are shared by Alzheimer"s and Creutzfeldt-Jakob (CJD) diseases, we investigated for the first time to the best of our knowledge a possible association of a common synonymous BACE1 polymorphism (rs638405) with sporadic CJD (sCJD). Our results indicate that BACE1 C-allele is associated with an increased risk for developing sCJD, mainly in PRNP M129M homozygous subjects with early onset. These results extend the very short list of genes (other than PRNP) involved in the development of human prion diseases; and support the notion that similar to AD, in sCJD several loci may contribute with modest overall effects to disease risk. These findings underscore the interplay in both pathologies of APP, Aβ oligomers, ApoE, PrP and BACE1, and suggest that aging and perhaps vascular risk factors may modulate disease pathologies in part through these key players

Prevalence of Ischemic Heart Disease and Management of Coronary Risk in Daily Clinical Practice: Results from a Mediterranean Cohort of HIV-Infected Patients

There are conflicting data on the prevalence of coronary events and the quality of the management of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) inHIV-infected patients. Methods.We performed a retrospective descriptive study to determine the prevalence of coronary events and to evaluate the management of CVRF in a Mediterranean cohort of 3760 HIV-1-infected patients from April 1983 through June 2011. Results.We identified 81 patients with a history of a coronary event (prevalence 2.15%); 83% of them suffered an acute myocardial infarction. At the time of the coronary event, CVRF were highly prevalent (60.5% hypertension, 48% dyslipidemia, and 16% diabetes mellitus).OtherCVRF, such as smoking, hypertension, lack of exercise, and body mass index, were not routinely assessed. After the coronary event, a significant decrease in total cholesterol ( � = 0.025) and LDLcholesterol ( � = 0.004) was observed. However, the percentage of patients whomaintained LDL-cholesterol > 100mg/dL remained stable (from 46% to 41%, � = 0.103). Patients using protease inhibitors associated with a favorable lipid profile increased over time ( � = 0.028). Conclusions.The prevalence of coronary events in our cohort is low. CVRF prevalence is high and theirmanagement is far from optimal. More aggressive interventions should be implemented to diminish cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected patients.

Acute stroke chameleons in a university hospital : Risk factors, circumstances, and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors, circumstances, and outcomes for individuals with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) chameleons (AIS-C) arriving in the emergency department of a university hospital. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all patients with AIS from the prospectively constructed Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne during 8.25 years. AIS-C were defined as a failure to suspect stroke or as incorrect exclusion of stroke diagnosis. They were compared with patients diagnosed correctly at the time of admission. RESULTS: Forty-seven of 2,200 AIS were missed (2.1%). These AIS-C were either very mild or very severe strokes. Multivariate analysis showed a younger age in patients with AIS-C (odds ratio [OR] per year 0.98, p < 0.01), less prestroke statin treatment (OR 0.29, p = 0.04), and lower diastolic admission blood pressure (OR 0.98 p = 0.04). They showed less eye deviation (OR 0.21, p = 0.04) and more cerebellar strokes (OR 3.78, p < 0.01). AIS-C were misdiagnosed as other neurologic (42.6% of cases) or nonneurologic (17.0%) disease, as unexplained decreased level of consciousness (21.3%), and as concomitantly present disease (19.1%). At 12 months, patients with AIS-C had less favorable outcomes (adjusted OR 0.21, p < 0.01) and higher mortality (adjusted OR 4.37, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: AIS are missed in patients with younger age with a lower cerebrovascular risk profile and may be masked by other acute conditions. Patients with chameleons present more often with milder strokes or coma, fewer focal signs and cerebellar strokes, and have higher disability and mortality rates at 12 months. These findings may be used to raise awareness in emergency departments to recognize and treat such patients appropriately.

Risk assessment tool for radical technologies – Case Technology A and Technology B

Työssä testataan radikaalien teknologioiden liiketoimintariskien evaluointityökalua. Työn teoreettinen tausta koostuu teknologia- ja innovaatioteorioista hyödyntäen myös resurssipohjaista yritysteoriaa täydennettynä evolutionäärisellä teorialla. Teoreettisessa osuudessa rakennetaan viitekehys, jolla liiketoimintariskejä voidaan arvioida ja muodostaa riskiprofiili. Liiketoimintariskien muuttujina ovat markkina-, teknologia- ja organisaatioriskit. Primäärisenä tietolähteenä käytettiin teema- ja strukturoituja haastatteluita. Ensimmäinen haastattelu käsitti evaluointityökalun käytettävyyttä ja riskienhallintaa yleensä. Loput haastattelut liittyivät teknologian A ja teknologian B liiketoimintariskien arvioimiseen. Tulokset osoittavat molemmat teknologiat sisältävän radikaaleille teknologioille ominaisia epävarmuustekijöitä. Riskiprofiilin hyödyllisyys liittyy liiketoimintariskien samanaikaiseen havaitsemiseen auttaen näin päätöksenteossa. Tärkeää evaluoinnissa on kiinnittää huomiota näkökulmaan, josta riskejä tarkastellaan riskiprofiilin validiteetin parantamiseksi.

Risk Behavior and Reciprocity of Organ Donation Attitudes in Young Men.

BACKGROUND: Lack of donor organs remains a major obstacle in organ transplantation. Our aim was to evaluate (1) the association between engaging in high-risk recreational activities and attitudes toward organ donation and (2) the degree of reciprocity between organ acceptance and donation willingness in young men. METHODS: A 17-item, close-ended survey was offered to male conscripts ages 18 to 26 years in all Swiss military conscription centers. Predictors of organ donation attitudes were assessed in bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regression. Reciprocity of the intentions to accept and to donate organs was assessed by means of donor card status. RESULTS: In 1559 responses analyzed, neither motorcycling nor practicing extreme sports reached significant association with donor card holder status. Family communication about organ donation, student, or academic profession and living in a Latin linguistic region were predictors of positive organ donation attitudes, whereas residence in a German-speaking region and practicing any religion predicted reluctance. Significantly more respondents were willing to accept than to donate organs, especially among those without family communication concerning organ donation. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, it was shown that high-risk recreational activities do not influence organ donation attitudes. Second, a considerable discrepancy in organ donation reciprocity was identified. We propose that increasing this reciprocity could eventually increase organ donation rates.

Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.