Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

A practical approach to execute and test a lean startup

This paper practically applies the “Lean Startup Approach” by identifying, analyzing and executing a newly developed web-based business idea. Hypotheses were designed and tested with the construction of a minimum viable product – i.e. a landing page. In-depth interviews allowed deciding either to pivot or persevere the initial launch strategy. Overall, the aim was to collect as much valuable response as possible from customers and ultimately decide for a superior strategy while devoting the smallest amount of time and money.

A Wireless Mesh Network NS-3 Simulation Model: Implementation and Performance Comparison With a Real Test-Bed

Wireless mesh networks present an attractive communication solution for various research and industrial projects. However, in many cases, the appropriate preliminary calculations which allow predicting the network behavior have to be made before the actual deployment. For such purposes, network simulation environments emulating the real network operation are often used. Within this paper, a behavior comparison of real wireless mesh network (based on 802.11s amendment) and the simulated one has been performed. The main objective of this work is to measure performance parameters of a real 802.11s wireless mesh network (average UDP throughput and average one-way delay) and compare the derived results with characteristics of a simulated wireless mesh network created with the NS-3 network simulation tool. Then, the results from both networks are compared and the corresponding conclusion is made. The corresponding results were derived from simulation model and real-worldtest-bed, showing that the behavior of both networks is similar. It confirms that the NS-3 simulation model is accurate and can be used in further research studies.

Desensitization of thermal hyperemia in the skin is reproducible.

OBJECTIVE: Local heating increases skin blood flow SkBF (thermal hyperemia). In a previous study, we reported that a first local thermal stimulus could attenuate the hyperemic response to a second one applied later on the same skin spot, a phenomenon that we termed desensitization. However, other studies found no evidence for desensitization in similar conditions. The aim of the present work was to test whether it was related to differences in instrumentation. METHODS: Twenty-eight healthy young males were studied. Two pairs of heating chambers, one custom-made (our study) and one commercial (other groups), were affixed to forearm skin. SkBF was measured with single-point laser-Doppler flowmetry (LDF) (780nm) in one pair, and laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) (633nm) in the other. A temperature step from 34 to 41°C, was applied for 30minutes and repeated after two hours. RESULTS: During the second thermal challenge, the plateau SkBF was lower than during the first thermal and was observed with each of the four combinations of SkBF measurement techniques and heating equipment (p<0.05 for all conditions, range -9% to -16% of the initial value). CONCLUSION: Desensitization of thermal hyperemia is not specific to peculiar operating conditions.

Results of An International Study of Quantitative BCR/ABL Assays Using Defined RNA Samples

Molecular monitoring of BCR/ABL transcripts by real time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) is an essential technique for clinical management of patients with BCR/ABL-positive CML and ALL. Though quantitative BCR/ABL assays are performed in hundreds of laboratories worldwide, results among these laboratories cannot be reliably compared due to heterogeneity in test methods, data analysis, reporting, and lack of quantitative standards. Recent efforts towards standardization have been limited in scope. Aliquots of RNA were sent to clinical test centers worldwide in order to evaluate methods and reporting for e1a2, b2a2, and b3a2 transcript levels using their own qRT-PCR assays. Total RNA was isolated from tissue culture cells that expressed each of the different BCR/ABL transcripts. Serial log dilutions were prepared, ranging from 100 to 10-5, in RNA isolated from HL60 cells. Laboratories performed 5 independent qRT-PCR reactions for each sample type at each dilution. In addition, 15 qRT-PCR reactions of the 10-3 b3a2 RNA dilution were run to assess reproducibility within and between laboratories. Participants were asked to run the samples following their standard protocols and to report cycle threshold (Ct), quantitative values for BCR/ABL and housekeeping genes, and ratios of BCR/ABL to housekeeping genes for each sample RNA. Thirty-seven (n=37) participants have submitted qRT-PCR results for analysis (36, 37, and 34 labs generated data for b2a2, b3a2, and e1a2, respectively). The limit of detection for this study was defined as the lowest dilution that a Ct value could be detected for all 5 replicates. For b2a2, 15, 16, 4, and 1 lab(s) showed a limit of detection at the 10-5, 10-4, 10-3, and 10-2 dilutions, respectively. For b3a2, 20, 13, and 4 labs showed a limit of detection at the 10-5, 10-4, and 10-3 dilutions, respectively. For e1a2, 10, 21, 2, and 1 lab(s) showed a limit of detection at the 10-5, 10-4, 10-3, and 10-2 dilutions, respectively. Log %BCR/ABL ratio values provided a method for comparing results between the different laboratories for each BCR/ABL dilution series. Linear regression analysis revealed concordance among the majority of participant data over the 10-1 to 10-4 dilutions. The overall slope values showed comparable results among the majority of b2a2 (mean=0.939; median=0.9627; range (0.399 - 1.1872)), b3a2 (mean=0.925; median=0.922; range (0.625 - 1.140)), and e1a2 (mean=0.897; median=0.909; range (0.5174 - 1.138)) laboratory results (Fig. 1-3)). Thirty-four (n=34) out of the 37 laboratories reported Ct values for all 15 replicates and only those with a complete data set were included in the inter-lab calculations. Eleven laboratories either did not report their copy number data or used other reporting units such as nanograms or cell numbers; therefore, only 26 laboratories were included in the overall analysis of copy numbers. The median copy number was 348.4, with a range from 15.6 to 547,000 copies (approximately a 4.5 log difference); the median intra-lab %CV was 19.2% with a range from 4.2% to 82.6%. While our international performance evaluation using serially diluted RNA samples has reinforced the fact that heterogeneity exists among clinical laboratories, it has also demonstrated that performance within a laboratory is overall very consistent. Accordingly, the availability of defined BCR/ABL RNAs may facilitate the validation of all phases of quantitative BCR/ABL analysis and may be extremely useful as a tool for monitoring assay performance. Ongoing analyses of these materials, along with the development of additional control materials, may solidify consensus around their application in routine laboratory testing and possible integration in worldwide efforts to standardize quantitative BCR/ABL testing.

Stepwise evaluation of unexplained syncope in a large ambulatory population.

BACKGROUND: Up to 60% of syncopal episodes remain unexplained. We report the results of a standardized, stepwise evaluation of patients referred to an ambulatory clinic for unexplained syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 939 consecutive patients referred for unexplained syncope, who underwent a standardized evaluation, including history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, head-up tilt testing (HUTT), carotid sinus massage (CSM) and hyperventilation testing (HYV). Echocardiogram and stress test were performed when underlying heart disease was initially suspected. Electrophysiological study (EPS) and implantable loop recorder (ILR) were used only in patients with underlying structural heart disease or major unexplained syncope. We identified a cause of syncope in 66% of patients, including 27% vasovagal, 14% psychogenic, 6% arrhythmias, and 6% hypotension. Noninvasive testing identified 92% and invasive testing an additional 8% of the causes. HUTT yielded 38%, CSM 28%, HYV 49%, EPS 22%, and ILR 56% of diagnoses. On average, patients with arrhythmic causes were older, had a lower functional capacity, longer P-wave duration, and presented with fewer prodromes than patients with vasovagal or psychogenic syncope. CONCLUSIONS: A standardized stepwise evaluation emphasizing noninvasive tests yielded 2/3 of causes in patients referred to an ambulatory clinic for unexplained syncope. Neurally mediated and psychogenic mechanisms were behind >50% of episodes, while cardiac arrhythmias were uncommon. Sudden syncope, particularly in older patients with functional limitations or a prolonged P-wave, suggests an arrhythmic cause.

Octopus Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry, Moorfields Motion Displacement Test and Heidelberg Retinal Tomography in Glaucoma Detection - A Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracy

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4 clinical instruments in the detection of glaucomatous damage. Methods: 102 eyes of 55 test subjects (Age mean = 66.5yrs, range = [39; 89]) underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII), (disc area<2.43); and standard automated perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic); Pulsar (TOP); and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (ESTA strategy). Eyes were separated into three groups 1) Healthy (H): IOP<21mmHg and healthy discs (clinical examination), 39 subjects, 78 eyes; 2) Glaucoma suspect (GS): Suspicious discs (clinical examination), 12 subjects, 15 eyes; 3) Glaucoma (G): progressive structural or functional loss, 14 subjects, 20 eyes. Clinical diagnostic precision was examined using the cut-off associated with the p<5% normative limit of MD (Octopus/Pulsar), PTD (MDT) and MRA (HRT) analysis. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated for each instrument. Results: See table Conclusions: Despite the advantage of defining glaucoma suspects using clinical optic disc examination, the HRT did not yield significantly higher accuracy than functional measures. HRT, MDT and Octopus SAP yielded higher accuracy than Pulsar perimetry, although results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies are required to investigate the structure-function correlations between these instruments.

Effects of selection and drift on G matrix evolution in a heterogeneous environment: a multivariate Qst-Fst Test with the freshwater snail Galba truncatula.

Unraveling the effect of selection vs. drift on the evolution of quantitative traits is commonly achieved by one of two methods. Either one contrasts population differentiation estimates for genetic markers and quantitative traits (the Q(st)-F(st) contrast) or multivariate methods are used to study the covariance between sets of traits. In particular, many studies have focused on the genetic variance-covariance matrix (the G matrix). However, both drift and selection can cause changes in G. To understand their joint effects, we recently combined the two methods into a single test (accompanying article by Martin et al.), which we apply here to a network of 16 natural populations of the freshwater snail Galba truncatula. Using this new neutrality test, extended to hierarchical population structures, we studied the multivariate equivalent of the Q(st)-F(st) contrast for several life-history traits of G. truncatula. We found strong evidence of selection acting on multivariate phenotypes. Selection was homogeneous among populations within each habitat and heterogeneous between habitats. We found that the G matrices were relatively stable within each habitat, with proportionality between the among-populations (D) and the within-populations (G) covariance matrices. The effect of habitat heterogeneity is to break this proportionality because of selection for habitat-dependent optima. Individual-based simulations mimicking our empirical system confirmed that these patterns are expected under the selective regime inferred. We show that homogenizing selection can mimic some effect of drift on the G matrix (G and D almost proportional), but that incorporating information from molecular markers (multivariate Q(st)-F(st)) allows disentangling the two effects.

Reproducibility of free-breathing cardiovascular magnetic resonance coronary angiography.

OBJECTIVE: Contemporary free-breathing non contrast enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance angiography (CMRA) was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated to ascertain the reproducibility of the method for coronary artery luminal dimension measurements. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Twenty-two healthy volunteers (mean age 32 +/- 7 years, 12 males) without coronary artery disease were imaged at 2 centers (1 each in Europe and North America) using navigator-gated and corrected SSFP CMRA on a commercial whole body 1.5T System. Repeat images of right (RCA, n = 21), left anterior descending (LAD, n = 14) and left circumflex (LCX, n = 14) coronary arteries were obtained in separate sessions using identical scan protocol and imaging parameters. True visible vessel length, signal-to-noise (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR) and the average luminal diameter over the first 4 cm of the vessel were measured. Intra-observer, inter-observer and inter-scan reproducibility of coronary artery luminal diameter were determined using Pearson's correlation, Bland-Altman analysis and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). RESULTS: CNR, SNR and the mean length of the RCA, LAD and LCX imaged for original and repeat scans were not significantly different (all p > 0.30). There was a high degree of intra-observer, inter-observer and inter-scan agreements for RCA, LAD and LCX luminal diameter respectively on Bland-Altman and ICC analysis (ICC's for RCA: 0.98. 0.98 and 0.86; LAD: 0.89, 0.89 and 0.63; LCX: 0.95, 0.94 and 0.79). CONCLUSION: In a 2-center study, we demonstrate that free-breathing 3D SSFP CMRA can visualize long continuous segments of coronary vessels with highly reproducible measurements of luminal diameter.

Atrial natriuretic peptides: reproducibility of renal effects and response of liver blood flow.

To assess the variability of the response to exogenous atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), it was infused at the rate of 1 microgram/min for 2 h in 6 salt-loaded normal volunteers under controlled conditions on 2 occasions at an interval of 1 week. The effect on solute excretion and the haemodynamic and endocrine actions were highly reproducible. The constant ANP infusion caused a delayed and prolonged excretion of sodium, chloride and calcium, no change in potassium or phosphate excretion or in glomerular filtration rate but a marked decrease in renal plasma flow. Blood pressure, heart rate and the plasma levels of angiotensin II, aldosterone, arginine vasopressin and plasma renin activity were unaltered. The effect of a 2-h infusion of ANP 0.5 microgram/min or its vehicle on apparent hepatic blood flow (HBF) was also studied in 14 normal volunteers by measuring the indocyanine green clearance. A 21% decrease in HBF was observed in subjects who received the ANP infusion (p less than 0.01 vs vehicle). Thus, ANP infused at a dose that did not lower blood pressure decreased both renal and liver blood flow in normotensive volunteers. The renal and endocrine responses to ANP were reproducible over a 1-week interval.

How reliable is the monitoring of permanent vegetation plots? A test with multiple observers

Questions: A multiple plot design was developed for permanent vegetation plots. How reliable are the different methods used in this design and which changes can we measure? Location: Alpine meadows (2430 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps. Methods: Four inventories were obtained from 40 m(2) plots: four subplots (0.4 m(2)) with a list of species, two 10m transects with the point method (50 points on each), one subplot (4 m2) with a list of species and visual cover estimates as a percentage and the complete plot (40 m(2)) with a list of species and visual estimates in classes. This design was tested by five to seven experienced botanists in three plots. Results: Whatever the sampling size, only 45-63% of the species were seen by all the observers. However, the majority of the overlooked species had cover < 0.1%. Pairs of observers overlooked 10-20% less species than single observers. The point method was the best method for cover estimate, but it took much longer than visual cover estimates, and 100 points allowed for the monitoring of only a very limited number of species. The visual estimate as a percentage was more precise than classes. Working in pairs did not improve the estimates, but one botanist repeating the survey is more reliable than a succession of different observers. Conclusion: Lists of species are insufficient for monitoring. It is necessary to add cover estimates to allow for subsequent interpretations in spite of the overlooked species. The choice of the method depends on the available resources: the point method is time consuming but gives precise data for a limited number of species, while visual estimates are quick but allow for recording only large changes in cover. Constant pairs of observers improve the reliability of the records.

The P450 oxidoreductase genotype is associated with CYP3A activity in vivo as measured by the midazolam phenotyping test.

CYP3A4, CYP3A5 and CYP3A7 are hepatic enzymes that metabolize about 50% of drugs on the market, with a large overlap in their specificities. We investigated the genetic bases that contribute to the variation of CYP3A activity. We phenotyped 251 individuals from two independent studies (182 patients treated with methadone and 69 patients with clozapine) for CYP3A activity using the midazolam phenotyping test and genotyped them for CYP3A4, CYP3A5, and CYP3A7 genetic variants, including the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs4646437C>T in intron 7 of CYP3A4. Owing to the fact that CYP enzymes require electron transfer through the P450 oxidoreductase (POR), and functional impairment has been shown for the POR*28 SNP, this polymorphism was also analysed. We show that CYP3A4, CYP3A5 and CYP3A7 genotypes, including the SNP rs4646437C>T, do not reflect the inter-individual variability of CYP3A activity (P>0.1). In contrast, POR*28 TT genotype presents a 1.6-fold increase in CYP3A activity compared with POR*28C carriers (n = 182, P = 0.004). This finding was replicated in the second independent dataset (n = 69, P = 0.04). The SNP POR*28 seems to be a better genetic marker of the variability of total CYP3A activity in vivo than CYP3A4, CYP3A5 and CYP3A7 genetic variants.

Endocrine response and perceived stress test during an experimental challenge task in adult survivors of a childhood cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although long-term implications of cancer in childhood or adolescence with regard to medical conditions are well documented, the impact on mental health and on response to stress, which may be an indicator of psychological vulnerability, is not yet well understood. In this study, psychological and physiological responses to stress were examined.¦PROCEDURE: Fifty-three participants aged 18-39 years (n = 25 survivors of childhood or adolescence cancer, n = 28 controls) underwent an experimental stress test, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Participants were asked to provide repeated evaluations of perceived stress on visual-analogical scales and blood samples were collected before and after the TSST to measure plasma cortisol.¦RESULTS: The psychological perception of stress was not different between the two groups. However, the cancer survivors group showed a higher global plasma cortisol level as well as higher amplitude in the response to the TSST. The global cortisol level in cancer survivors was increased when depression symptoms were present. The subjective perception of stress and the plasma cortisol levels were only marginally correlated in both groups.¦CONCLUSIONS: It is suggested that the exposure to a life-threatening experience in childhood/adolescence increases the endocrine response to stress, and that the presence of depressive symptoms is associated with an elevation of plasma cortisol levels. A better knowledge of these mechanisms is important given that the dysregulations of the stress responses may cause psychological vulnerability. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2012; 59: 138-143. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.