Opções reais em projetos de investimentos: o caso de uma planta de liquefação de gás natural com flexibilidade de troca de mercado e de troca de produto

O objetivo deste trabalho é revisar os principais aspectos teóricos para a aplicação de Opções Reais em avaliação de projetos de investimento e analisar, sob esta metodologia, um caso real de projeto para investir na construção de uma Planta de Liquefação de gás natural. O estudo do caso real considerou a Opção de Troca de Mercado, ao avaliar a possibilidade de colocação de cargas spot de GNL em diferentes mercados internacionais e a Opção de Troca de Produto, devido à flexibilidade gerencial de não liquefazer o gás natural, deixando de comercializar GNL no mercado internacional e passando a vender gás natural seco no mercado doméstico. Para a valoração das Opções Reais foi verificado, através da série histórica dos preços de gás natural, que o Movimento Geométrico Browniano não é rejeitado e foram utilizadas simulações de Monte Carlo do processo estocástico neutro ao risco dos preços. O valor da Opção de Troca de Mercado fez o projeto estudado mais que dobrar de valor, sendo reduzido com o aumento da correlação dos preços. Por outro lado, o valor da Opção de Troca de Produto é menos relevante, mas também pode atingir valores significativos com o incremento de sua volatilidade. Ao combinar as duas opções simultaneamente, foi verificado que as mesmas não são diretamente aditivas e que o efeito do incremento da correlação dos preços, ao contrário do que ocorre na Opção de Troca de Mercado, é inverso na Opção de Troca de Produto, ou seja, o derivativo aumenta de valor com uma maior correlação, apesar do valor total das opções integradas diminuir.

General equilibrium model with restricted participation in financial markets

The paper analyses a general equilibrium model with financiaI markets in which households may face restrictions in trading financiaI assets such as borrowing constraints and collateral (restricted participation model). However, markets are not assumed to be incomplete. We consider a standard general equilibrium model with H > 1 households, 2 periods and S states of nature in the second period. We show that generically the set of equilibrium allocations ia indeterminate, provided the existence of at least one nominal asset and one household for who some restriction is binding. Suppose there are C > 1 commodities in each state of nature and assets pays in units of some commodity. In this case for each household with binding restrictions it is possible to reduce the set of feasible assets trading and obtain a new equilibrium that utility improve alI those households. There is however an upper bound on the number of households to be improved related to the number of states of nature and the number of commodities. In particular, if the number of households ia smaller than the number of states of nature it is possible to Pareto improve any equilibrium by reducing the feasible choice set for each household.

Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements

Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

Optimal Mirrleesian taxation in non-competitive labor markets

We study optimal labor income taxation in non-competitive labor markets. Firms offer screening contracts to workers who have private information about their productivity. A planner endowed with a Paretian social welfare function tries to induce allocations that maximize its objective. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for implementation of constrained efficient allocations using tax schedules. All allocations that are implementable by a tax schedule display negative marginal tax rates for almost all workers. Not all allocations that are implementable in a competitive setting are implementable in this noncompetitive environment.

Revisiting modern portfolio theory

This paper revisits Modern Portfolio Theory and derives eleven properties of Efficient Allocations and Portfolios in the presence of leverage. With different degrees of leverage, an Efficient Portfolio is a linear combination of two portfolios that lie in different efficient frontiers - which allows for an attractive reinterpretation of the Separation Theorem. In particular a change in the investor risk-return preferences will leave the allocation between the Minimum Risk and Risk Portfolios completely unaltered - but will change the magnitudes of the tactical risk allocations within the Risk Portfolio. The paper also discusses the role of diversification in an Efficient Portfolio, emphasizing its more tactical, rather than strategic character

The bacterial chromosome segregation protein Spo0J spreads along DNA from parS nucleation sites

Regulation of chromosome inheritance is essential to ensure proper transmission of genetic information. To accomplish accurate genome segregation, cells organize their chromosomes and actively separate them prior to cytokinesis. In Bacillus subtilis the Spo0J protein is required for accurate chromosome segregation and it regulates the developmental switch from vegetative growth to sporulation. Spo0J is a DNA-binding protein that recognizes at least eight identified parS sites located near the origin of replication. As judged by fluorescence microscopy, Spo0J forms discrete foci associated with the oriC region of the chromosome throughout the cell cycle. In an attempt to determine the mechanisms utilized by Spo0J to facilitate productive chromosome segregation, we have investigated the DNA binding activity of Spo0J. In vivo we find Spo0J associates with several kilobases of DNA flanking its specific binding sites (parS) through a parS-dependent nucleation event that promotes lateral spreading of Spo0J along the chromosome. Using purified components we find that Spo0J has the ability to coat non-specific DNA substrates. These 'Spo0J domains' provide large structures near oriC that could potentially demark, organize or localize the origin region of the chromosome.

Uma contribuição à avaliação dos impactos da gestão de estoque na satisfação e fidelização pós-vendas de clientes de concessionárias de automóveis : um estudo empírico em Natal-RN

This paper aims to conduct a study to evaluate and measure the possible impact that the unavailability of spare parts can have on customer satisfaction for car dealerships in the post-sales. A theoretical-conceptual review on the subject of satisfaction and loyalty, on the backdrop of the reality of the automobile market, allowed the construction of a research tool dedicated to collect opinions of car owners, to allow an analysis empirical relationship between the availability of parts, repairs or scheduled service possible, and change or stay on the mark on the occasion of change of vehicle. 236 forms were applied to car owners in the city of Natal / RN. The results obtained in this survey allowed the identification of the unavailability of parts as a significant factor, among others, the motivation for the customer to switch brands. Collaterally, we could also conclude that the dynamics of change in marks, whatever its motivation, is reflected in the perceived positions of the different brands as the market share both in strictly quantitative terms and in terms of relative positioning, with significant changes in the ranking of consumer preferences for different brands available

Uso de técnicas de otimização baseadas em derivadas como suporte do planejamento operacional de redes de distribuição de energia elétrica

The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developing the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. It s important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformer s secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity

Uso de técnicas de otimização baseadas em derivadas como suporte do planejamento operacional de redes de distribuição de energia elétrica

The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developping the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. Its important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformers secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity

Metodologia para adaptação de microarquiteturas microprogramadas soft-core à uma ISA padrão: estudo do impacto sobre a complexidade de hardware para o padrão MIPS

In academia, it is common to create didactic processors, facing practical disciplines in the area of Hardware Computer and can be used as subjects in software platforms, operating systems and compilers. Often, these processors are described without ISA standard, which requires the creation of compilers and other basic software to provide the hardware / software interface and hinder their integration with other processors and devices. Using reconfigurable devices described in a HDL language allows the creation or modification of any microarchitecture component, leading to alteration of the functional units of data path processor as well as the state machine that implements the control unit even as new needs arise. In particular, processors RISP enable modification of machine instructions, allowing entering or modifying instructions, and may even adapt to a new architecture. This work, as the object of study addressing educational soft-core processors described in VHDL, from a proposed methodology and its application on two processors with different complexity levels, shows that it s possible to tailor processors for a standard ISA without causing an increase in the level hardware complexity, ie without significant increase in chip area, while its level of performance in the application execution remains unchanged or is enhanced. The implementations also allow us to say that besides being possible to replace the architecture of a processor without changing its organization, RISP processor can switch between different instruction sets, which can be expanded to toggle between different ISAs, allowing a single processor become adaptive hybrid architecture, which can be used in embedded systems and heterogeneous multiprocessor environments

Trendtv : uma arquitetura para mudança automática de canais de TV baseada em redes sociais virtuais com graus de amizade e suporte a múltiplos dispositivos no cenário da TV digital brasileira

Due to the large amount of television content, which emerged from the Digital TV, viewers are facing a new challenge, how to find interesting content intuitively and efficiently. The Personalized Electronic Programming Guides (pEPG) arise as an answer to this complex challenge. We propose TrendTV a layered architecture that allows the formation of social networks among viewers of Interactive Digital TV based on online microblogging. Associated with a pEPG, this social network allows the viewer to perform content filtering on a particular subject from the indications made by other viewers of his network. Allowing the viewer to create his own indications for a particular content when it is displayed, or to analyze the importance of a particular program online, based on these indications. This allows any user to perform filtering on content and generate or exchange information with other users in a flexible and transparent way, using several different devices (TVs, Smartphones, Tablets or PCs). Moreover, this architecture defines a mechanism to perform the automatic exchange of channels based on the best program that is showing at the moment, suggesting new components to be added to the middleware of the Brazilian Digital TV System (Ginga). The result is a constructed and dynamic database containing the classification of several TV programs as well as an application to automatically switch to the best channel of the moment

Superação da dormência de sementes de carrapicho-beiço-de-boi

Visando a obtenção de um tratamento para acelerar a germinação de sementes de Desmodium tortuosum (Sw.) DC., foram realizados dois experimentos, nos quais, segmentos unisseminados de lomentos (testemunha) foram submetidos a debulha manual; debulha manual seguida por escarificação manual empregando-se lixa n. 220; debulha mecânica (processador doméstico ); escarificação química com H2SO4 (95%) por 1,5 e 8 mim pré-aquecimento à 53°C por 4,10 e 16h em estufa com circulação forçada de ar; embebição, utilizando-se H,0 à 80°C por 1,3,5 e 10 min; H20 à 27°C por 2h e embebição com alternância térmica (H,0 à 80°C/ 5min e H20 à 13 °C / 1min) . Para a avaliação dos tratamentos foram empregados os testes de germinação, de emergência de plântulas em solo (E), de primeira contagem de germinação (PG) e de emergência (PE), índices de velocidade de germinação (I.V.G.) e de emergência (I.V.E.), e o comprimento de plântulas (CP). 0 delineamento estatístico adotado foi o inteiramente casualizado com 4 repetições de 100 (G, PG, I.V.G.) ou 20 sementes (C P) por tratamento no primeiro experimento e 4 repetições de 50 (G, PG, I.V.G.) ou 100 sementes (E, PE, I.V.E.) no segundo experimento. No primeiro experimento, os tratamentos que provocaram significativa redução da dormência (D) e, conseqüente elevação da germinação (G), em comparação à testemunha (D=82%; G=15%) foram, em ordem decrescente de eficácia: debulha e escarificação manuais (D=3%; G= 92%), debu lha mecânica (D=13%; G= 81%), embebição em H20 à 80°C por 1min (D=68%; G= 29%) e por 3 min (D=65%; G=32%). No segundo experimento, (testemunha com D=93% e G=3%) destacaram-se: debulha e escarificação manuais (D=2%; G= 93%), debulha mecânica (D = 2%; G = 87%), embebição em H20 à 80°C por 5min e alternância térmica (ambos com D=85% e G= 11%). 0s testes de vigor PC, I.V. G., I.V. E., CP, e E corroboraram esses resultados. 0s métodos de escarificação manual com lixa 220 e debulha mecânica, empregando-se processa dor, podem ser recomendados para a superação da dormência e promoção da germinação de sementes de D. tortuosum.

Global dynamics of the Rikitake system

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Differential antibody isotype expression to the major Paracoccidioides brasiliensis antigen in juvenile and adult form paracoccidioidomycosis

We investigated the relationship between antibody response to the major Paracoccidioides brasiliensis antigen, a 43-kDa glycoprotein, and the two paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) clinical presentations, the juvenile and the adult forms. Total immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgG isotypes, and IgA anti-gp43 antibodies were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in patients' sera. Juvenile PCM patients had higher (P =.003) IgG anti-gp43 levels than adult form patients. IgG1 subclass levels, however, were comparable between the two clinical forms. Patients with the juvenile form had higher (P <.001) IgG4, but lower(P =.03) IgG2 levels than patients with the adult form. The IgG4 isotype, regulated by interleukin 4, was found in all juvenile form patients but in only 12% of the adult form patients. In contrast, high levels of the IgG2 isotype, regulated by interferon-gamma, were found in 41% of the adult PCM patients, mainly those with a more benign disease, but in only 12% of the juvenile patients. IgG3 was either absent or detected at low levels. These results demonstrate, for the first time, specific IgG4 antibodies in the humoral immune response of patients with an endemic deep mycosis and suggest that the switch to the IgG subclasses in PCM is regulated by the patients' T-helper subset (Th-l or Th-2) dominant cytokine profile. A possible role for IgG4 in the immunopathogenesis of the juvenile, more severe form of the disease is discussed. Finally, IgA was found mainly in adult form patients, probably as a result of the chronic mucosal antigenic stimulation characteristic of this form. (C) Elsevier, Paris.