NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Territorial Intelligence of Vulnerability Systems 2- Sustainable Modelling of Globalization Challenge

Globalization as progress of economic development has increased population socioeconomical vulnerability when unequal wealth distribution within economic development process constitutes the main rule, with widening the gap between rich and poors by environmental pricing. Econological vulnerability is therefore increasing too, as dangerous substance and techniques should produce polluted effluents and industrial or climatic risk increasing (Woloszyn, Quenault, Faburel, 2012). To illustrate and model this process, we propose to introduce an analogical induction-model to describe both vulnerability situations and associated resilience procedures. At this aim, we first develop a well-known late 80?s model of socio-economic crack-up, known as 'Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars', which presents economics as a social extension of natural energy systems. This last, also named 'E-model', is constituted by three passive components, potential energy, kinetic energy, and energy dissipation, thus allowing economical data to be treated as a thermodynamical system. To extend this model to social and ecological sustainability pillars, we propose to built an extended E(Economic)-S(Social)-O(Organic) model, based on the three previous components, as an open model considering feedbacks as evolution sources. An applicative illustration of this model will then be described, through this summer's american severe drought event analysis

Territorial Intelligence of Vulnerability Systems 2- Sustainable Modelling of Globalization Challenge

Globalization as progress of economic development has increased population socioeconomical vulnerability when unequal wealth distribution within economic development process constitutes the main rule, with widening the gap between rich and poors by environmental pricing. Econological vulnerability is therefore increasing too, as dangerous substance and techniques should produce polluted effluents and industrial or climatic risk increasing (Woloszyn, Quenault, Faburel, 2012). To illustrate and model this process, we propose to introduce an analogical induction-model to describe both vulnerability situations and associated resilience procedures. At this aim, we first develop a well-known late 80?s model of socio-economic crack-up, known as 'Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars', which presents economics as a social extension of natural energy systems. This last, also named 'E-model', is constituted by three passive components, potential energy, kinetic energy, and energy dissipation, thus allowing economical data to be treated as a thermodynamical system. To extend this model to social and ecological sustainability pillars, we propose to built an extended E(Economic)-S(Social)-O(Organic) model, based on the three previous components, as an open model considering feedbacks as evolution sources. An applicative illustration of this model will then be described, through this summer's american severe drought event analysis

Territorial Intelligence of Vulnerability Systems 2- Sustainable Modelling of Globalization Challenge

Globalization as progress of economic development has increased population socioeconomical vulnerability when unequal wealth distribution within economic development process constitutes the main rule, with widening the gap between rich and poors by environmental pricing. Econological vulnerability is therefore increasing too, as dangerous substance and techniques should produce polluted effluents and industrial or climatic risk increasing (Woloszyn, Quenault, Faburel, 2012). To illustrate and model this process, we propose to introduce an analogical induction-model to describe both vulnerability situations and associated resilience procedures. At this aim, we first develop a well-known late 80?s model of socio-economic crack-up, known as 'Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars', which presents economics as a social extension of natural energy systems. This last, also named 'E-model', is constituted by three passive components, potential energy, kinetic energy, and energy dissipation, thus allowing economical data to be treated as a thermodynamical system. To extend this model to social and ecological sustainability pillars, we propose to built an extended E(Economic)-S(Social)-O(Organic) model, based on the three previous components, as an open model considering feedbacks as evolution sources. An applicative illustration of this model will then be described, through this summer's american severe drought event analysis

Atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological polar motion excitation mechanisms based on a combination of geometric and gravimetric space observations

The goal of our study is to determine accurate time series of geophysical Earth rotation excitations to learn more about global dynamic processes in the Earth system. For this purpose, we developed an adjustment model which allows to combine precise observations from space geodetic observation systems, such as Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Doppler Orbit determination and Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite (DORIS), satellite altimetry and satellite gravimetry in order to separate geophysical excitation mechanisms of Earth rotation. Three polar motion time series are applied to derive the polar motion excitation functions (integral effect). Furthermore we use five time variable gravity field solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine not only the integral mass effect but also the oceanic and hydrological mass effects by applying suitable filter techniques and a land-ocean mask. For comparison the integral mass effect is also derived from degree 2 potential coefficients that are estimated from SLR observations. The oceanic mass effect is also determined from sea level anomalies observed by satellite altimetry by reducing the steric sea level anomalies derived from temperature and salinity fields of the oceans. Due to the combination of all geodetic estimated excitations the weaknesses of the individual processing strategies can be reduced and the technique-specific strengths can be accounted for. The formal errors of the adjusted geodetic solutions are smaller than the RMS differences of the geophysical model solutions. The improved excitation time series can be used to improve the geophysical modeling.

PaleoTools - extended software package for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions

The Imbrie and Kipp transfer function method (IKM) and the modern analog technique (MAT) are accepted tools for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions. However, no uncomplicated, flexible software has been available to apply these methods on modern computer devices. For this reason the software packages PaleoToolBox, MacTransfer, WinTransfer, MacMAT, and PanPlot have been developed. The PaleoToolBox package provides a flexible tool for the preprocessing of microfossil reference and downcore data as well as hydrographic reference parameters. It includes procedures to randomize the raw databases; to switch specific species in or out of the total species list; to establish individual ranking systems and their application on the reference and downcore databasessemi; and to convert the prepared databases into the file formats of IKM and MAT software for estimation of paleohydrographic parameters.

Communication: Transition State Theory for dissipative systems without a dividing surface

Transition state theory is a central cornerstone in reaction dynamics. Its key step is the identification of a dividing surface that is crossed only once by all reactive trajectories. This assumption is often badly violated, especially when the reactive system is coupled to an environment. The calculations made in this way then overestimate the reaction rate and the results depend critically on the choice of the dividing surface. In this Communication, we study the phase space of a stochastically driven system close to an energetic barrier in order to identify the geometric structure unambiguously determining the reactive trajectories, which is then incorporated in a simple rate formula for reactions in condensed phase that is both independent of the dividing surface and exact.

Learning an L1-regularized Gaussian Bayesian Network in the Equivalence Class Space

Learning the structure of a graphical model from data is a common task in a wide range of practical applications. In this paper, we focus on Gaussian Bayesian networks, i.e., on continuous data and directed acyclic graphs with a joint probability density of all variables given by a Gaussian. We propose to work in an equivalence class search space, specifically using the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm. This, combined with regularization techniques to guide the structure search, can learn sparse networks close to the one that generated the data. We provide results on some synthetic networks and on modeling the gene network of the two biological pathways regulating the biosynthesis of isoprenoids for the Arabidopsis thaliana plant

Extended Triple-Junction Solar Cell 3D Distributed Model: Application to Chromatic Aberration-Related Losses

An extended 3D distributed model based on distributed circuit units for the simulation of triple‐junction solar cells under realistic conditions for the light distribution has been developed. A special emphasis has been put in the capability of the model to accurately account for current mismatch and chromatic aberration effects. This model has been validated, as shown by the good agreement between experimental and simulation results, for different light spot characteristics including spectral mismatch and irradiance non‐uniformities. This model is then used for the prediction of the performance of a triple‐junction solar cell for a light spot corresponding to a real optical architecture in order to illustrate its suitability in assisting concentrator system analysis and design process.

Imaging systems application of multichannel configurations

While multichannel configurations are well established for non-imaging applications, they have not been used yet for imaging applications. In this paper we present for the first time some of multichannel designs for imaging systems. The multichannel comprises discontinuous optical sections which are called channels. The phase-space representation of the bundle of rays going from the object to the image is discontinuous between channels. This phase-space ray-bundle flow is divided in as many paths as channels there are but it is a single wavefront both at the source and the target. Typically, these multichannel systems are at least formed by three optical surfaces: two of them have discontinuities (either in the shape or in the shape derivative) while the last is a smooth one. Optical surfaces discontinuities cause at the phase space the wave front split in separate paths. The number of discontinuities is the same in the two first surfaces: Each channel is defined by the smooth surfaces in between discontinuities, so the surfaces forming each separate channel are all smooth. Aplanatic multichannel designs are also shown and used to explain the design procedure.

Bio-inspired FPGA Architecture for Self-Calibration of an Image Compression Core based on Wavelet Transforms in Embedded Systems

A generic bio-inspired adaptive architecture for image compression suitable to be implemented in embedded systems is presented. The architecture allows the system to be tuned during its calibration phase. An evolutionary algorithm is responsible of making the system evolve towards the required performance. A prototype has been implemented in a Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGA featuring an adaptive wavelet transform core directed at improving image compression for specific types of images. An Evolution Strategy has been chosen as the search algorithm and its typical genetic operators adapted to allow for a hardware friendly implementation. HW/SW partitioning issues are also considered after a high level description of the algorithm is profiled which validates the proposed resource allocation in the device fabric. To check the robustness of the system and its adaptation capabilities, different types of images have been selected as validation patterns. A direct application of such a system is its deployment in an unknown environment during design time, letting the calibration phase adjust the system parameters so that it performs efcient image compression. Also, this prototype implementation may serve as an accelerator for the automatic design of evolved transform coefficients which are later on synthesized and implemented in a non-adaptive system in the final implementation device, whether it is a HW or SW based computing device. The architecture has been built in a modular way so that it can be easily extended to adapt other types of image processing cores. Details on this pluggable component point of view are also given in the paper.

Gi2MO: Interoperability, Linking and Filtering in Idea Management Systems

This thesis proposes how to apply the Semantic Web tech- nologies for the Idea Management Systems to deliver a solution to knowl- edge management and information over ow problems. Firstly, the aim is to present a model that introduces rich metadata annotations and their usage in the domain of Idea Management Systems. Furthermore, the the- sis shall investigate how to link innovation data with information from other systems and use it to categorize and lter out the most valuable elements. In addition, the thesis presents a Generic Idea and Innovation Management Ontology (Gi2MO) and aims to back its creation with a set of case studies followed by evaluations that prove how Semantic Web can work as tool to create new opportunities and leverage the contemporary Idea Management legacy systems into the next level.

Self-reference Scrubber for TMR Systems Based on Xilinx Virtex FPGAs

SRAM-based FPGAs are sensitive to radiation effects. Soft errors can appear and accumulate, potentially defeating mitigation strategies deployed at the Application Layer. Therefore, Configuration Memory scrubbing is required to improve radiation tolerance of such FPGAs in space applications. Virtex FPGAs allow runtime scrubbing by means of dynamic partial reconfiguration. Even with scrubbing, intra-FPGA TMR systems are subjected to common-mode errors affecting more than one design domain. This is solved in inter-FPGA TMR systems at the expense of a higher cost, power and mass. In this context, a self-reference scrubber for device-level TMR system based on Xilinx Virtex FPGAs is presented. This scrubber allows for a fast SEU/MBU detection and correction by peer frame comparison without needing to access a golden configuration memory

A comparative study on unconstrained hand biometrics

Biometrics applied to mobile devices are of great interest for security applications. Daily scenarios can benefit of a combination of both the most secure systems and most simple and extended devices. This document presents a hand biometric system oriented to mobile devices, proposing a non-intrusive, contact-less acquisition process where final users should take a picture of their hand in free-space with a mobile device without removals of rings, bracelets or watches. The main contribution of this paper is threefold: firstly, a feature extraction method is proposed, providing invariant hand measurements to previous changes; second contribution consists of providing a template creation based on hand geometric distances, requiring information from only one individual, without considering data from the rest of individuals within the database; finally, a proposal for template matching is proposed, minimizing the intra-class similarity and maximizing the inter-class likeliness. The proposed method is evaluated using three publicly available contact-less, platform-free databases. In addition, the results obtained with these databases will be compared to the results provided by two competitive pattern recognition techniques, namely Support Vector Machines (SVM) and k-Nearest Neighbour, often employed within the literature. Therefore, this approach provides an appropriate solution to adapt hand biometrics to mobile devices, with an accurate results and a non-intrusive acquisition procedure which increases the overall acceptance from the final user.

On the monitoring of surface displacement in connection with volcano reactivation in Tenerife, Canary Islands, using space techniques

Geodetic volcano monitoring in Tenerife has mainly focused on the Las Cañadas Caldera, where a geodetic micronetwork and a levelling profile are located. A sensitivity test of this geodetic network showed that it should be extended to cover the whole island for volcano monitoring purposes. Furthermore, InSAR allowed detecting two unexpected movements that were beyond the scope of the traditional geodetic network. These two facts prompted us to design and observe a GPS network covering the whole of Tenerife that was monitored in August 2000. The results obtained were accurate to one centimetre, and confirm one of the deformations, although they were not definitive enough to confirm the second one. Furthermore, new cases of possible subsidence have been detected in areas where InSAR could not be used to measure deformation due to low coherence. A first modelling attempt has been made using a very simple model and its results seem to indicate that the deformation observed and the groundwater level variation in the island may be related. Future observations will be necessary for further validation and to study the time evolution of the displacements, carry out interpretation work using different types of data (gravity, gases, etc) and develop models that represent the island more closely. The results obtained are important because they might affect the geodetic volcano monitoring on the island, which will only be really useful if it is capable of distinguishing between displacements that might be linked to volcanic activity and those produced by other causes. One important result in this work is that a new geodetic monitoring system based on two complementary techniques, InSAR and GPS, has been set up on Tenerife island. This the first time that the whole surface of any of the volcanic Canary Islands has been covered with a single network for this purpose. This research has displayed the need for further similar studies in the Canary Islands, at least on the islands which pose a greater risk of volcanic reactivation, such as Lanzarote and La Palma, where InSAR techniques have been used already.