Feasibility platform for stroke studies: an online tool to improve eligibility criteria for clinical trials

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Eligibility criteria are a key factor for the feasibility and validity of clinical trials. We aimed to develop an online tool to assess the potential effect of inclusion and exclusion criteria on the proportion of patients eligible for an acute stroke trial. METHODS We identified relevant inclusion and exclusion criteria of acute stroke trials. Based on these criteria and using a cohort of 1537 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke from 3 stroke centers, we developed a web portal feasibility platform for stroke studies (FePASS) to estimate proportions of eligible patients for acute stroke trials. We applied the FePASS resource to calculate the proportion of patients eligible for 4 recent stroke studies. RESULTS Sixty-one eligibility criteria were derived from 30 trials on acute ischemic stroke. FePASS, publicly available at http://fepass.uni-muenster.de, displays the proportion of patients in percent to assess the effect of varying values of relevant eligibility criteria, for example, age, symptom onset time, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and prestroke modified Rankin Scale, on this proportion. The proportion of eligible patients for 4 recent stroke studies ranged from 2.1% to 11.3%. Slight variations of the inclusion criteria could substantially increase the proportion of eligible patients. CONCLUSIONS FePASS is an open access online resource to assess the effect of inclusion and exclusion criteria on the proportion of eligible patients for a stroke trial. FePASS can help to design stroke studies, optimize eligibility criteria, and to estimate the potential recruitment rate.

Quality control for retinal OCT in multiple sclerosis: validation of the OSCAR-IB criteria.

BACKGROUND Retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) permits quantification of retinal layer atrophy relevant to assessment of neurodegeneration in multiple sclerosis (MS). Measurement artefacts may limit the use of OCT to MS research. OBJECTIVE An expert task force convened with the aim to provide guidance on the use of validated quality control (QC) criteria for the use of OCT in MS research and clinical trials. METHODS A prospective multi-centre (n = 13) study. Peripapillary ring scan QC rating of an OCT training set (n = 50) was followed by a test set (n = 50). Inter-rater agreement was calculated using kappa statistics. Results were discussed at a round table after the assessment had taken place. RESULTS The inter-rater QC agreement was substantial (kappa = 0.7). Disagreement was found highest for judging signal strength (kappa = 0.40). Future steps to resolve these issues were discussed. CONCLUSION Substantial agreement for QC assessment was achieved with aid of the OSCAR-IB criteria. The task force has developed a website for free online training and QC certification. The criteria may prove useful for future research and trials in MS using OCT as a secondary outcome measure in a multi-centre setting.

Implications of Imaging Criteria for the Management and Treatment of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms - Benign versus Malignant Findings

OBJECTIVES Evaluation of computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for differentiation of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) subtypes based on objective imaging criteria. METHODS Fifty-eight patients with 60 histologically confirmed IPMNs were included in this retrospective study. Eighty-three imaging studies (CT,n = 42; MRI,n = 41) were analysed by three independent blinded observers (O1-O3), using established imaging criteria to assess likelihood of malignancy (-5, very likely benign; 5, very likely malignant) and histological subtype (i.e., low-grade (LGD), moderate-grade (MGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), early invasive carcinoma (IPMC), solid carcinoma (CA) arising from IPMN). RESULTS Forty-one benign (LGD IPMN,n = 20; MGD IPMN,n = 21) and 19 malignant (HGD IPMN,n = 3; IPMC,n = 6; solid CA,n = 10) IPMNs located in the main duct (n = 6), branch duct (n = 37), or both (n = 17) were evaluated. Overall accuracy of differentiation between benign and malignant IPMNs was 86/92 % (CT/MRI). Exclusion of overtly malignant cases (solid CA) resulted in overall accuracy of 83/90 % (CT/MRI). The presence of mural nodules and ductal lesion size ≥30 mm were significant indicators of malignancy (p = 0.02 and p < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Invasive IPMN can be identified with high confidence and sensitivity using CT and MRI. The diagnostic problem that remains is the accurate radiological differentiation of premalignant and non-invasive subtypes. KEY POINTS • CT and MRI can differentiate benign from malignant forms of IPMN. • Identifying (pre)malignant histological IPMN subtypes by CT and MRI is difficult. • Overall, diagnostic performance with MRI was slightly (not significantly) superior to CT.

Coaches` subjective talent criteria in top-level soccer

Introduction: In professional soccer, talent selection relies on the subjective judgment of scouts and coaches. To date, little is known about coaches´ “eye for talent” (Christensen, 2009, p. 379) and the nature of the subjective criteria they use to identify those players with the greatest potential to achieve peak performance in adulthood (Williams & Reilly, 2000). Drawing on a constructivist approach (Kelly, 1991), this study explores coaches´ subjective talent criteria. It is assumed that coaches are able to verbalise and specify their talent criteria, and that these are related to their talent selection decisions based on instinct. Methods: Participants and generation of data. Five national youth soccer coaches (Mage = 55.6; SD = 5.03) were investigated at three appointments: (1) talent selection decision based on instinct, (2) semi-structured inductive interview to elicit each coaches´ talent criteria in detail, (3) communicative validation and evaluation of the players by each coach using the repertory grid technique (Fromm, 2004). Data Analysis: Interviews were transcribed and summarized with regard to each specified talent criterion. Each talent criterion was categorized using a bottom-up-approach (meaning categorization, Kvale, 1996). The repertory grid data was analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Results and Discussion: For each coach, six to nine talent criteria were elicited and specified. The subjective talent criteria include aspects of personality, cognitive perceptual skills, motor abilities, development, technique, social environment and physical constitution, which shows that the coaches use a multi-dimensional concept of talent. However, more than half of all criteria describe personality characteristics, in particular achievement motivation, volition and self-confidence. In contrast to Morris (2000), this result shows that coaches have a differentiated view of the personality characteristics required to achieve peak performance. As an indication of criterion validity, moderate to high correlations (.57 ≤ r ≤ .81) are found between the evaluations of the players according to the coaches´ talent criteria and their talent selection decision. The study shows that coaches are able to specify their subject talent criteria and that those criteria are strongly related to their instinctive selection decisions. References: Christensen, M. K. (2009). "An Eye for Talent": Talent Identification and the "Practical Sense" of Top-Level Soccer Coaches. Sociology of Sport Journal, 26, 365–382. Fromm, M. (2004). Introduction to the Repertory Grid Interview. Münster: Waxmann. Kelly, G. A. (1991). The Psychology of Personal Constructs: Volume One: Theory and personality. London: Routledge. Kvale, S. (1996). InterViews: An introduction to Qualitative Research Interviewing. Thousand Oaks: Sage. Morris, T. (2000). Psychological characteristics and talent identification in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 715–726. Williams, A. M., & Reilly, T. (2000). Talent identification and development in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 657–667.

Of mice, macaques and men: scaling of virus dynamics and immune responses

In this Opinion piece, I argue that the dynamics of viruses and the cellular immune response depend on the body size of the host. I use allometric scaling theory to interpret observed quantitative differences in the infection dynamics of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) in mice (Mus musculus), simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in humans.

Age matters in the prevalence and clinical significance of ultra-high-risk for psychosis symptoms and criteria in the general population: Findings from the BEAR and BEARS-kid studies

Early detection of psychosis is an important topic in psychiatry. Yet, there is limited information on the prevalence and clinical significance of high-risk symptoms in children and adolescents as compared to adults. We examined ultra-high-risk (UHR) symptoms and criteria in a sample of individuals aged 8-40 years from the general population of Canton Bern, Switzerland, enrolled from June 2011 to May 2014. The current presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) and the fulfillment of onset/worsening and frequency requirements for these symptoms in UHR criteria were assessed using the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes. Additionally, perceptive and non-perceptive APS were differentiated. Psychosocial functioning and current non-psychotic DSM-IV axis I disorders were also surveyed. Well-trained psychologists performed assessments. Altogether, 9.9% of subjects reported APS and none BLIPS, and 1.3% met all the UHR requirements for APS. APS were related to more current axis I disorders and impaired psychosocial functioning, indicating some clinical significance. A strong age effect was detected around age 16: compared to older individuals, 8-15-year olds reported more perceptive APS, that is, unusual perceptual experiences and attenuated hallucinations. Perceptive APS were generally less related to functional impairment, regardless of age. Conversely, non-perceptive APS were related to low functioning, although this relationship was weaker in those below age 16. Future studies should address the differential effects of perceptive and non-perceptive APS, and their interaction with age, also in terms of conversion to psychosis.

Tall cell papillary thyroid carcinoma: new diagnostic criteria and mutations in BRAF and TERT

The tall cell (TC) variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has an unfavorable prognosis. The diagnostic criteria remain inconsistent, and the role of a minor TC component is unclear. Molecular diagnostic markers are not available; however, there are two potential candidates: BRAF V600E and telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations. Using a novel approach, we enriched a collective with PTCs that harbored an adverse outcome, which overcame the limited statistical power of most studies. This enabled us to review 125 PTC patients, 57 of which had an adverse outcome. The proportion of TCs that constituted a poor prognosis was assessed. All of the tumors underwent sequencing for TERT promoter and BRAF V600E mutational status and were stained with an antibody to detect the BRAF V600E mutation. A 10% cutoff for TCs was significantly associated with advanced tumor stage and lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis showed that TCs above 10% were the only significant factor for overall, tumor-specific, and relapse-free survival. Seven percent of the cases had a TERT promoter mutation, whereas 61% demonstrated a BRAF mutation. The presence of TC was significantly associated with TERT promoter and BRAF mutations. TERT predicted highly significant tumor relapse (P<0.001). PTCs comprised of at least 10% TCs are associated with an adverse clinical outcome and should be reported accordingly. BRAF did not influence patient outcome. Nevertheless, a positive status should encourage the search for TCs. TERT promoter mutations are a strong predictor of tumor relapse, but their role as a surrogate marker for TCs is limited.

Predictive modelling of mineral scaling, corrosion and the performance of solute geothermometers in a granitoid-hosted, enhanced geothermal system

Experience is lacking with mineral scaling and corrosion in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in which surface water is circulated through hydraulically stimulated crystalline rocks. As an aid in designing EGS projects we have conducted multicomponent reactive-transport simulations to predict the likely characteristics of scales and corrosion that may form when exploiting heat from granitoid reservoir rocks at ∼200 °C and 5 km depth. The specifications of an EGS project at Basel, Switzerland, are used to constrain the model. The main water–rock reactions in the reservoir during hydraulic stimulation and the subsequent doublet operation were identified in a separate paper (Alt-Epping et al., 2013b). Here we use the computed composition of the reservoir fluid to (1) predict mineral scaling in the injection and production wells, (2) evaluate methods of chemical geothermometry and (3) identify geochemical indicators of incipient corrosion. The envisaged heat extraction scheme ensures that even if the reservoir fluid is in equilibrium with quartz, cooling of the fluid will not induce saturation with respect to amorphous silica, thus eliminating the risk of silica scaling. However, the ascending fluid attains saturation with respect to crystalline aluminosilicates such as albite, microcline and chlorite, and possibly with respect to amorphous aluminosilicates. If no silica-bearing minerals precipitate upon ascent, reservoir temperatures can be predicted by classical formulations of silica geothermometry. In contrast, Na/K concentration ratios in the production fluid reflect steady-state conditions in the reservoir rather than albite–microcline equilibrium. Thus, even though igneous orthoclase is abundant in the reservoir and albite precipitates as a secondary phase, Na/K geothermometers fail to yield accurate temperatures. Anhydrite, which is present in fractures in the Basel reservoir, is predicted to dissolve during operation. This may lead to precipitation of pyrite and, at high exposure of anhydrite to the circulating fluid, of hematite scaling in the geothermal installation. In general, incipient corrosion of the casing can be detected at the production wellhead through an increase in H2(aq) and the enhanced precipitation of Fe-bearing aluminosilicates. The appearance of magnetite in scales indicates high corrosion rates.

The scaling of genetic diversity in a changing and fragmented world

Most species do not live in a constant environment over space or time. Their environment is often heterogeneous with a huge variability in resource availability and exposure to pathogens or predators, which may affect the local densities of the species. Moreover, the habitat might be fragmented, preventing free and isotropic migrations between local sub-populations (demes) of a species, making some demes more isolated than others. For example, during the last ice age populations of many species migrated towards refuge areas from which re-colonization originated when conditions improved. However, populations that could not move fast enough or could not adapt to the new environmental conditions faced extinctions. Populations living in these types of dynamic environments are often referred to as metapopulations and modeled as an array of subdivisions (or demes) that exchange migrants with their neighbors. Several studies have focused on the description of their demography, probability of extinction and expected patterns of diversity at different scales. Importantly, all these evolutionary processes may affect genetic diversity, which can affect the chance of populations to persist. In this chapter we provide an overview on the consequences of fragmentation, long-distance dispersal, range contractions and range shifts on genetic diversity. In addition, we describe new methods to detect and quantify underlying evolutionary processes from sampled genetic data.

Identifying observable criteria defining a critical situation involving football fans: an expert focus group study

Critical situations (CSs) involving football fans is a well-researched phenomenon with most studies examining factors leading to an escalation of violence (e.g. Braun & Vliegenthart, 2008). However, research so far has fallen short of analysing CSs that do not escalate (e.g. Hylander & Guvå, 2010) as well as establishing observable criteria that constitute such CSs. Granström et al. (2009), for instance, put forward a definition of a CS describing such situations as characterised by a discrepancy between peace and war-making behaviours between police and demonstrators. Still, this definition remains vague and does not provide concrete, defining criteria that can be identified on site. The present study looks beyond fans’ violent acts per se and focuses on these situations with a potentially – but not necessarily - violent outcome. The aim of this preliminary study is to identify observable criteria defining such a CS involving football fans. This focus group comprised of five experts working with football fans in the German-speaking area of Switzerland who discussed observable characteristics of a CS. Inductive content analysis led to the identification of specific criteria such as, “arrest of a fan”, “insufficient distance (<30m) between fans and police” and “fans mask themselves”. These criteria were then assigned to four phases of a CS highlighting the dynamic aspect of this phenomenon: Antecedents, Causes, Reactions, Consequence. Specifically, Causes, Reactions and Consequences are observable on site, while Antecedents include relevant, background information directly influencing a CS. This study puts forward a working definition of a CS that can facilitate the assessment of actual situations in the football context as well as for further research on fan violence prevention and control. These results also highlight similarities with studies investigating fan violence in other European countries while acknowledging unique characteristics of the Swiss German fan culture.

Service level agreements-driven management of distributed applications in cloud computing environments

Advancements in cloud computing have enabled the proliferation of distributed applications, which require management and control of multiple services. However, without an efficient mechanism for scaling services in response to changing workload conditions, such as number of connected users, application performance might suffer, leading to violations of Service Level Agreements (SLA) and possible inefficient use of hardware resources. Combining dynamic application requirements with the increased use of virtualised computing resources creates a challenging resource Management context for application and cloud-infrastructure owners. In such complex environments, business entities use SLAs as a means for specifying quantitative and qualitative requirements of services. There are several challenges in running distributed enterprise applications in cloud environments, ranging from the instantiation of service VMs in the correct order using an adequate quantity of computing resources, to adapting the number of running services in response to varying external loads, such as number of users. The application owner is interested in finding the optimum amount of computing and network resources to use for ensuring that the performance requirements of all her/his applications are met. She/he is also interested in appropriately scaling the distributed services so that application performance guarantees are maintained even under dynamic workload conditions. Similarly, the infrastructure Providers are interested in optimally provisioning the virtual resources onto the available physical infrastructure so that her/his operational costs are minimized, while maximizing the performance of tenants’ applications. Motivated by the complexities associated with the management and scaling of distributed applications, while satisfying multiple objectives (related to both consumers and providers of cloud resources), this thesis proposes a cloud resource management platform able to dynamically provision and coordinate the various lifecycle actions on both virtual and physical cloud resources using semantically enriched SLAs. The system focuses on dynamic sizing (scaling) of virtual infrastructures composed of virtual machines (VM) bounded application services. We describe several algorithms for adapting the number of VMs allocated to the distributed application in response to changing workload conditions, based on SLA-defined performance guarantees. We also present a framework for dynamic composition of scaling rules for distributed service, which used benchmark-generated application Monitoring traces. We show how these scaling rules can be combined and included into semantic SLAs for controlling allocation of services. We also provide a detailed description of the multi-objective infrastructure resource allocation problem and various approaches to satisfying this problem. We present a resource management system based on a genetic algorithm, which performs allocation of virtual resources, while considering the optimization of multiple criteria. We prove that our approach significantly outperforms reactive VM-scaling algorithms as well as heuristic-based VM-allocation approaches.