An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Controle de sistemas lineares incertos via realimentação derivativa utilizando Funções de Lyapunov dependentes de parâmetros

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cálculos de integrais de Feynman em teorias de campos

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

Um estudo exploratório sobre a imagem conceitual de estudantes universitários acerca do conceito de limite de função

Esta é uma pesquisa de caráter exploratório, cujo objetivo foi investigar os elementos que compõem a imagem conceitual de estudantes universitários sobre o conceito de limite de uma função de uma variável real. O estudo envolveu 25 estudantes do curso de licenciatura em matemática de duas universidades públicas no estado do Pará (Brasil) e constituiu-se de duas etapas. Primeiramente, aplicamos um questionário que continha tarefas relacionadas aos aspectos conceituais de limite de uma função de uma variável. A segunda etapa consistiu na realização de entrevistas com seis sujeitos que foram selecionados devido às imagens conceituais evocadas por eles na etapa anterior, e que por sua vez, encontravam-se em conformidade com os quatro Temas de Discussão (TD) que nortearam essas entrevistas. A análise dos resultados baseou-se, sobretudo, na teoria de Tall e Vinner (1981) e Vinner (1991), bem como nos estudos realizados por Cottril et al (1996), Jordaan (2005), Juter (2006), Nair (2009), dentre outros, que compuseram a fundamentação teórica do presente estudo. Dentre os resultados obtidos, ressaltamos que os estudantes relacionam o conceito de limite de uma função de uma variável real com interpretações estáticas e/ou dinâmicas que, em alguns momentos, constituíram-se como fatores de conflito potencial, conforme destacado por Vinner (1991). Além disso, evidenciamos que algumas das imagens conceituais evocadas pelos sujeitos investigados não se fizeram coerentes, fato que os influenciou a construir uma definição conceitual pessoal diferente da definição conceitual formal de limite de uma função de uma variável real.

Investigação da impulsividade pela Prova de Rorschach em policiais militares do Comando de Missões Especiais da Polícia Militar do Pará

O presente trabalho surgiu do desejo em compreender o aparecimento da variável impulsividade que no projeto de pesquisa trouxemos como hipótese, que policias militares de Missões Especiais apresentariam respostas de impulsividade mediante resultados em avaliações anteriores com outros testes como o Palográfico e o Wartegg. A impulsividade nos inquietou pelo fato de fazer parte dos critérios de corte em seleção para o exercício das funções policiais militares. A proposta de nossa pesquisa em utilizar a Prova de Rorschach como instrumento de investigação consolidou-se pela propriedade do teste em avaliar a dinâmica da personalidade e por ser uma técnica projetiva. O método escolhido teve um delineamento quantitativo e qualitativo e foram destacados do instrumento os fatores relevantes à investigação dos indícios de impulsividade. Os sujeitos correspondem a 20% do efetivo operacional da tropa pesquisada e foram selecionados segundo critérios baseados na função que exercem, permanência na unidade, dentre outros. Com a pesquisa, refutamos a hipótese inicial e constatamos que a impulsividade interpretada anteriormente apresentou-se como prontidão e imediatismo de atitudes, e que mesmo com índice Imp elevado, o grupo apresentou recursos de controle interno satisfatórios para que a impulsividade não se torne prejudicial ou mesmo interfira em suas funções operacionais. Discuti-se sobre a possibilidade de investigação de um escore específico para o tipo de atividade policial especial desenvolvida por esse grupo ou por outros de atividades semelhantes, pois, no caso em questão, mesmo que 80% do grupo não tenha correspondido ao resultado esperado na fórmula de impulsividade, em nenhum dos sujeitos os outros elementos relacionados às respostas de Cor e Forma confirmaram a fórmula, o que leva a conclusão de que a impulsividade está presente no grupo, porém, não se apresenta de forma prejudicial e sim contida.

Analogia entre propriedades de alguns polinômios ortogonais em uma e em várias variáveis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Correspondence between the one-loop three-point vertex and the Y and Delta electric resistor networks

Different mathematical methods have been applied to obtain the analytic result for the massless triangle Feynman diagram yielding a sum of four linearly independent (LI) hypergeometric functions of two variables F-4. This result is not physically acceptable when it is embedded in higher loops, because all four hypergeometric functions in the triangle result have the same region of convergence and further integration means going outside those regions of convergence. We could go outside those regions by using the well-known analytic continuation formulas obeyed by the F-4, but there are at least two ways we can do this. Which is the correct one? Whichever continuation one uses, it reduces a number of F-4 from four to three. This reduction in the number of hypergeometric functions can be understood by taking into account the fundamental physical constraint imposed by the conservation of momenta flowing along the three legs of the diagram. With this, the number of overall LI functions that enter the most general solution must reduce accordingly. It remains to determine which set of three LI solutions needs to be taken. To determine the exact structure and content of the analytic solution for the three-point function that can be embedded in higher loops, we use the analogy that exists between Feynman diagrams and electric circuit networks, in which the electric current flowing in the network plays the role of the momentum flowing in the lines of a Feynman diagram. This analogy is employed to define exactly which three out of the four hypergeometric functions are relevant to the analytic solution for the Feynman diagram. The analogy is built based on the equivalence between electric resistance circuit networks of types Y and Delta in which flows a conserved current. The equivalence is established via the theorem of minimum energy dissipation within circuits having these structures.

Three-point functions and su(1 vertical bar 1) spin chains

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Optimized design of substrate-integrated hollow waveguides for mid-infrared gas analyzers

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Schur-Szegö composition of entire functions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chauliocheilos saxatilis, a new genus and species of Hypoptopomatinae from rio Jequitinhonha basin, with a unique labial appendix (Teleostei: Loricariidae)

Chauliocheilos saxatilis, new genus and species, is described from headwater streams of the rio Itamarandiba, upper rio Jequitinhonha basin, southeastern Brazil. The new genus is diagnosed from all other Loricariidae members by having a unique labial appendix at laterodorsal portion of lower lip, associated to the proximal region of insertion of the maxillary barbel. From all Hypoptopomatinae genera, Chauliocheilos can be distinguished by having two additional series of lateral plates, one between the dorsal and mid-dorsal series, and the other between the mid-ventral and ventral series. In addition, the great number of lateral plates, the absence of the iris operculum, and the posterior dorsal-fin insertion contacting the neural spine of eighth vertebra, are other useful features to recognize the genus. The phylogenetic position of Chauliocheilos among the Hypoptopomatinae, as well as the morphology and possible functions of the labial appendix, are discussed.

Funções convexas e desigualdades: uma abordagem no ensino médio

Pós-graduação em Matemática - IBILCE

Measurements of jet multiplicity and differential production cross sections of Z plus jets events in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Short communication: Variable number of tandem repeat polymorphisms in DGAT1 gene of buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) is associated with milk constituents

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Constraints on parton distribution functions and extraction of the strong coupling constant from the inclusive jet cross section in pp collisions at root s=7TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)