Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Pre-anthesis ovary development determines genotypic differences in potential kernel weight in sorghum

Kernel weight is an important factor determining grain yield and nutritional quality in sorghum, yet the developmental processes underlying the genotypic differences in potential kernel weight remain unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the stage in development at which genetic effects on potential kernel weight were realized, and to investigate the developmental mechanisms by which potential kernel weight is controlled in sorghum. Kernel development was studied in two field experiments with five genotypes known to differ in kernel weight at maturity. Pre-fertilization floret and ovary development was examined and post-fertilization kernel-filling characteristics were analysed. Large kernels had a higher rate of kernel filling and contained more endosperm cells and starch granules than normal-sized kernels. Genotypic differences in kernel development appeared before stamen primordia initiation in the developing florets, with sessile spikelets of large-seeded genotypes having larger floret apical meristems than normal-seeded genotypes. At anthesis, the ovaries for large-sized kernels were larger in volume, with more cells per layer and more vascular bundles in the ovary wall. Across experiments and genotypes, there was a significant positive correlation between kernel dry weight at maturity and ovary volume at anthesis. Genotypic effects on meristem size, ovary volume, and kernel weight were all consistent with additive genetic control, suggesting that they were causally related. The pre-fertilization genetic control of kernel weight probably operated through the developing pericarp, which is derived from the ovary wall and potentially constrains kernel expansion.

Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Neighbourliness and Australia’s contribution to regional migration strategies for climate displacement in the Pacific

The prospect of widespread displacement in the Pacific as a result of climate change is becoming increasingly likely and it is possible that many will eventually need to relocate to other countries. Regional migration strategies not only offer the potential to minimise the harms of relocation, while acknowledging existing relationships of friendship and regional cooperation. This article examines the use of the language of ‘neighbourliness’ in Australia’s regional climate change strategies and argues that, while it expresses friendship, such language can also be employed to avoid the creation of stronger obligations. The article considers the international doctrine of good neighbourliness and concludes that, while international legal obligations may not yet exist, Australia should nonetheless begin planning for regional migration within the Pacific to allow people to migrate with dignity.

Differences between the in vitro digestibility of extrusa collected from oesophageal fistulated steers and the forage consumed.

In a study that included C-4 tropical grasses, C-3 temperate grasses and C-3 pasture legumes, in vitro dry matter digestibility of extrusa, measured as in vitro dry matter loss (IVDML) during incubation, compared with that of the forage consumed, was greater for grass extrusa but not for legume extrusa. The increase in digestibility was not caused by mastication or by the freezing of extrusa samples during storage but by the action of saliva. Comparable increases in IVDML were achieved merely by mixing bovine saliva with ground forage samples. Differences were greater than could be explained by increases due to completely digestible salivary DM. There was no significant difference between animals in relation to the saliva effect on IVDML and, except for some minor differences, similar saliva effects on IVDML were measured using either the pepsin-cellulase or rumen fluid-pepsin in vitro techniques. For both C-4 and C-3 grasses the magnitude of the differences were inversely related to IVDML of the feed and there was little or no difference between extrusa and feed at high digestibilities (>70%) whereas differences of more than 10 percentage units were measured on low quality grass forages. The data did not suggest that the extrusa or saliva effect on digestibility was different for C-3 grasses than for C-4 grasses but data on C-3 grasses were limited to few species and to high digestibility samples. For legume forages there was no saliva effect when the pepsin-cellulase method was used but there was a small but significant positive effect using the rumen fluid-pepsin method. It was concluded that when samples of extrusa are analysed using in vitro techniques, predicted in vivo digestibility of the feed consumed will often be overestimated, especially for low quality grass diets. The implications of overestimating in vivo digestibility and suggestions for overcoming such errors are discussed.

Social Influence and Blood Donation: Cultural Differences Between Scotland and Australia

People can be motivated to carryout behaviours which contribute to improvement of quality of life for reasons driven by cultural norms. There is a common perception that people within a cultural cluster, particularly one with a common language such as English, will exhibit similar consumer behaviours. However there is an emerging field of research investigating intra-cultural differences in marketing that challenges this perception. In particular, the role of peers and norms as drivers of altruistic behaviours that benefit society may differ between these countries. Altruism is an important motivation for pro-social behaviours such as blood donation, water conservation and peer counselling for health problems. Understanding the social influences for these behaviours assists marketers to develop programs that meet the needs of donors and potential donors. An ongoing foundation of altruistic consumers is essential for delivering services that improve quality of life for people. Without blood donors, there would be no blood products for cancer sufferers or accident victims, without a sufficient water supply the quality of life for residents would be compromised and without breastfeeding peer counselling, new mothers and their babies would have reduced quality of life. This chapter reports the findings of two online surveys with Scottish and Australian blood donors and demonstrates differences in the way social norms influence donation behaviour, and importantly different impacts of cultural factors in the two populations.

Playing alone, playing with others: Differences in player experience and indicators of wellbeing

Video game play is becoming an increasingly social experience, yet we have little understanding of how social and solitary modes of play differ in terms of the player experience or interact with player wellbeing. An online survey (n = 446) collected data on players' current mode of play, their game play experience, social capital gained from game play and wellbeing. The results indicate that social and solitary players differ in terms of degree of autonomy, presence and relatedness experienced, while the different types of social play are associated with differences in relatedness and social capital experienced. Different predictors of wellbeing were also present across solitary and social player samples. People who play games on their own experience greater wellbeing when experiencing in-game autonomy. Social players experience greater wellbeing when playing with strangers, and when experiencing in-game bridging social capital. All players experienced increased wellbeing with age and decreased wellbeing with greater amounts of play.

Enabling people to ‘see what they can be’… The Community Aspirations Program (CAP-ED)

The Community Aspirations Program in Education (CAP-ED) was delivered by CQUniversity’s Office of Indigenous Engagement to increase Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander student participation in higher education. CAP-ED was developed through scoping studies of six individual communities within the CQuniversity footprint, including a designated Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community and rural and regional communities. The scoping process included developing community profiles and extensive consultation with Traditional Owners, Elders, community members and key stakeholders. This process proved to be an essential component of CAP-ED’s success, resulting in Indigenous participation in the program’s networking lunches, through to the delivery of information and workshop sessions. Moreover, it witnessed engagement with people in communities as partners in the program’s delivery and co-presenters in workshops and other events. The CAP-ED workshops focus on identity, culture, aspirations and assist participants to see that they have the potential to participate in higher education. The other essential components of the program’s success have included enabling people to ‘see what they can be’, offering opportunities for people to ask questions, voice honest concerns, and build confidence. The flexibility of delivery was paramount in accommodating the varying needs of each community and the differences in cultural protocols and community approaches, while the face to face engagement between knowledgeable and skilled staff and community members proved to be vital. Over the life of the project, CAP-ED has developed into a broad based strategy that has successfully matched community needs and university based responses through the process of community engagement.

Enabling Indigenous education success beyond regional borders

Higher education is a powerful tool for reducing social and economic disadvantage. But access to higher education can be difficult, particularly for Indigenous Australians who face multiple levels of social, economic and geographical isolation. While enabling programs can support Indigenous students to gain university entry, the experience at Central Queensland University (CQUniversity) suggests that their past success has been limited. In this paper, the authors describe the enabling program available to Indigenous students at CQUniversity. They suggest that the newly developed, flexible, online version of the program is helping to address geographical and social isolation and improve successful outcomes for Indigenous Australians.

Path+Ways. Towards best practice bridging and Indigenous participation through regional dual-sector universities

Regional and remote Indigenous students are underrepresented in both higher education and vocational education and training. Enabling education courses are important in lifting participation rates and potentially in encouraging mobility between the sectors, yet there is a clear lack of evidence underpinning their development. This report provides an overview of the data collection and analysis activities undertaken via a research project funded by the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education. The project purpose was to explore current practices dealing with Indigenous enabling courses, particularly in the context of regional, dual-sector universities. In particular, the project examined how these programs vary by institution (and region) in terms of structure, mode and ethos of offering; and direct and indirect impacts of these initiatives on Indigenous student participation and attainment; with a view to designing a best practice framework and implementation statement. Through its focus on students accessing Indigenous and mainstream enabling education, the project focussed on range of equity groups including those of low socio-economic status (both school leaver and mature-age categories), regional and/or remote students, Indigenous students and students with disability.

WHIPPET: a novel tool for prioritizing invasive plant populations for regional eradication

Large geographic areas can have numerous incipient invasive plant populations that necessitate eradication. However, resources are often deficient to address every infestation. Within the United States, weed lists (either state-level or smaller unit) generally guide the prioritization of eradication of each listed species uniformly across the focus region. This strategy has several limitations that can compromise overall effectiveness, which include spending limited resources on 1) low impact populations, 2) difficult to access populations, or 3) missing high impact populations of low priority species. Therefore, we developed a novel science-based, transparent, analytical ranking tool to prioritize weed populations, instead of species, for eradication and tested it on a group of noxious weeds in California. For outreach purposes, we named the tool WHIPPET (Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool). Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process that included expert opinion, we developed three major criteria, four sub-criteria, and four sub-sub-criteria, taking into account both species and population characteristics. Subject matter experts weighted and scored these criteria to assess the relative impact, potential spread, and feasibility of eradication (major criteria) for 100 total populations of 19 species. Species-wide population scores indicated that conspecific populations do not necessarily group together in the final ranked output. Thus, priority lists based solely on species-level characteristics are less effective compared to a blended prioritization based on both species attributes and individual population and site parameters. WHIPPET should facilitate a more efficacious decision-making process allocating limited resources to target invasive plant infestations with the greatest predicted impacts to the region under consideration.

Negligible evidence for regional genetic population structure for two shark species Rhizoprionodon acutus (Rüppell, 1837) and Sphyrna lewini (Griffith & Smith, 1834) with contrasting biology

Biodiversity of sharks in the tropical Indo-Pacific is high, but species-specific information to assist sustainable resource exploitation is scarce. The null hypothesis of population genetic homogeneity was tested for scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini, n = 237) and the milk shark (Rhizoprionodon acutus, n = 207) from northern and eastern Australia, using nuclear (S. lewini, eight microsatellite loci; R. acutus, six loci) and mitochondrial gene markers (873 base pairs of NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4). We were unable to reject genetic homogeneity for S. lewini, which was as expected based on previous studies of this species. Less expected were similar results for R. acutus, which is more benthic and less vagile than S. lewini. These features are probably driving the genetic break found between Australian and central Indonesian R. acutus (F-statistics; mtDNA, 0.751–0.903, respectively; microsatellite loci, 0.038–0.047 respectively). Our results support the spatially homogeneous monitoring and management plan for shark species in Queensland, Australia.