Influência de elementos climáticos na mortalidade de cidades brasileiras

In this paper, preliminary to a series of investigations that the A. has the purpose to make about the influence of climatic factors particularly upon the prevalence of the most important acute infectious diseases in Brazil, he raises the question whether such factors do affect in this country the total death rates, as it is reasonable to suppose, according to what has been observed in temperate zones of northern and southern hemispheres. The inclusion of absolute humidity among other climatic factors to be dealt with seems justifiable according to Rogers and Stallybrass. Owing to scarcety of reliable data the A. was obliged to limit to a five-years period (1940-1944) the complete proposed investigation, which includes seven of the most important cities, scattered throughout the brazilian territory, from north to south - Belém, recife, Salvador, Rio, S. Paulo, Curitiba and Porto Alegre. Reference is made to their normal climatic conditions and monthly death-rates variations with their mean values and standard deviations. In a first part dealing with seasonal variations only for purposes of comparison, he points out that in there tropical cities of Brazil, without very clear seasonal differentiation, the curve of general mortality reached its highest point in austral autumn season and the remaining four (including Rio near the tropic) in the spring, with the exception of Curitiba, where the peak coincided with the summer season. He shows how such important causes of deaths, as diarrheas, common respiratory diseases and tuberculosis, whose seasonal distribution for each one of the seven cities is referred, may explain such seasonal variations. On a second part, a study is made of the general mortality distribution by four-months periods selected in accordance respectively with the highest or lowest values of rainfall and of mean temperature and humidity during period 1940-1944. Finally he compares the monthly waves of such climatic factors and the corresponding waves of total death - rates and finds through correlation coefficients 17 significant values with respect to their standard errors. Variations in the death - rates seemed to be perhaps more closely and uniformly associated with variations of mean humidity, as is indicated by coefficients ranging from + 0.3 to 0.6.

Asymmetries in the capacity-inflation trade-off

This paper analyzes the joint dynamics of two key macroeconomic variables for the conduct of monetary policy: inflation and the aggregate capacity utilization rate. An econometric procedure useful for estimating dynamic rational expectation models with unobserved components is developed and applied in this context. The method combines the flexibility of the unobserved components approach, based on the Kalman recursion, with the power of the general method of moments estimation procedure. A 'hyb id' Phillips curve relating inflation to the capacity utilization gap and incorporating forward and backward looking components is estimated. The results show that such a relationship in non-linear: the slope of the Phillips curve depends significantly on the magnitude of the capacity gap. These findings provide support for studying the implications of asymmetricmonetary policy rules.

Valuations, intersections et fonctions de Belyi

We present in this article several possibilities to approach the height of an algebraic curve defined over a number field : as an intersection number via the Arakelov theory, as a limit point of the heights of its algebraic points and, finally, using the minimal degree of Belyi functions.

Income growth and atmospheric pollution in Spain: an input-output approach

The relationships between economic growth and environmental pressures are complex. Since the early nineties, the debate on these relationships has been strongly influenced by the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which states that during the first stage of economic development environmental pressures increase as per capita income increases, but once a critical turning-point has been reached these pressures diminish as income levels continue to increase. However, to date such a delinking between economic growth and emission levels has not happened for most atmospheric pollutants in Spain. The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between income growth and nine atmospheric pollutants in Spain. In order to obtain empirical outcomes for this analysis, we adopt an input-output approach and use NAMEA data for the nine pollutants. First, we undertake a structural decomposition analysis for the period 1995-2000 to estimate the contribution of various factors to changes in the levels of atmospheric emissions. And second, we estimate the emissions associated with the consumption patterns of different groups of households classified according to their level of expenditure

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model (sine model, SIN) to describe fat oxidation kinetics as a function of the relative exercise intensity [% of maximal oxygen uptake (%VO2max)] during graded exercise and to determine the exercise intensity (Fatmax) that elicits maximal fat oxidation (MFO) and the intensity at which the fat oxidation becomes negligible (Fatmin). This model included three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, and translation) that incorporated primary expected modulations of the curve because of training level or body composition. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy volunteers (17 women and 15 men) performed a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer, with 3-min stages and 20-W increments. Substrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. SIN was compared with measured values (MV) and with other methods currently used [i.e., the RER method (MRER) and third polynomial curves (P3)]. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the fitting accuracy between SIN and P3 (P = 0.157), whereas MRER was less precise than SIN (P < 0.001). Fatmax (44 +/- 10% VO2max) and MFO (0.37 +/- 0.16 g x min(-1)) determined using SIN were significantly correlated with MV, P3, and MRER (P < 0.001). The variable of dilatation was correlated with Fatmax, Fatmin, and MFO (r = 0.79, r = 0.67, and r = 0.60, respectively, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SIN model presents the same precision as other methods currently used in the determination of Fatmax and MFO but in addition allows calculation of Fatmin. Moreover, the three independent variables are directly related to the main expected modulations of the fat oxidation curve. SIN, therefore, seems to be an appropriate tool in analyzing fat oxidation kinetics obtained during graded exercise.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacogenomics of once-daily raltegravir and atazanavir in healthy volunteers.

Atazanavir inhibits UDP-glucuronyl-transferase-1A1 (UGT1A1), which metabolizes raltegravir, but the magnitude of steady-state inhibition and role of the UGT1A1 genotype are unknown. Sufficient inhibition could lead to reduced-dose and -cost raltegravir regimens. Nineteen healthy volunteers, age 24 to 51 years, took raltegravir 400 mg twice daily (arm A) and 400 mg plus atazanavir 400 mg once daily (arm B), separated by ?3 days, in a crossover design. After 1 week on each regimen, raltegravir and raltegravir-glucuronide plasma and urine concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in multiple samples obtained over 12 h (arm A) or 24 h (arm B) and analyzed by noncompartmental methods. UGT1A1 promoter variants were detected with a commercially available kit and published primers. The primary outcome was the ratio of plasma raltegravir C(tau), or concentration at the end of the dosing interval, for arm B (24 h) versus arm A (12 h). The arm B-to-arm A geometric mean ratios (95% confidence interval, P value) for plasma raltegravir C(tau), area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 12 h (AUC(0-12)), and raltegravir-glucuronide/raltegravir AUC(0-12) were 0.38 (0.22 to 0.65, 0.001), 1.32 (0.62 to 2.81, 0.45), and 0.47 (0.38 to 0.59, <0.001), respectively. Nine volunteers were heterozygous and one was homozygous for a UGT1A1 reduction-of-function allele, but these were not associated with metabolite formation. Although atazanavir significantly reduced the formation of the glucuronide metabolite, its steady-state boosting of plasma raltegravir did not render the C(tau) with a once-daily raltegravir dose of 400 mg similar to the C(tau) with the standard twice-daily dose. UGT1A1 promoter variants did not significantly influence this interaction.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Long-term citalopram administration reduces responsiveness of HPA axis in patients with major depression: relationship with S-citalopram concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and clinical response.

RATIONALE: A dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is a well-documented neurobiological finding in major depression. Moreover, clinically effective therapy with antidepressant drugs may normalize the HPA axis activity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to test whether citalopram (R/S-CIT) affects the function of the HPA axis in patients with major depression (DSM IV). METHODS: Twenty depressed patients (11 women and 9 men) were challenged with a combined dexamethasone (DEX) suppression and corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) stimulation test (DEX/CRH test) following a placebo week and after 2, 4, and 16 weeks of 40 mg/day R/S-CIT treatment. RESULTS: The results show a time-dependent reduction of adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol response during the DEX/CRH test both in treatment responders and nonresponders within 16 weeks. There was a significant relationship between post-DEX baseline cortisol levels (measured before administration of CRH) and severity of depression at pretreatment baseline. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of psychopathology and hormonal stress responsiveness and R/S-CIT concentrations in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The magnitude of decrease in cortisol responsivity from pretreatment baseline to week 4 on drug [delta-area under the curve (AUC) cortisol] was a significant predictor (p<0.0001) of the degree of symptom improvement following 16 weeks on drug (i.e., decrease in HAM-D21 total score). The model demonstrated that the interaction of CSF S-CIT concentrations and clinical improvement was the most powerful predictor of AUC cortisol responsiveness. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that decreased AUC cortisol was highly associated with S-CIT concentrations in plasma and CSF. Therefore, our data suggest that the CSF or plasma S-CIT concentrations rather than the R/S-CIT dose should be considered as an indicator of the selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) effect on HPA axis responsiveness as measured by AUC cortisol response.

Inverse problems for invariant algebraic curves: explicit computations

Given an algebraic curve in the complex affine plane, we describe how to determine all planar polynomial vector fields which leave this curve invariant. If all (finite) singular points of the curve are nondegenerate, we give an explicit expression for these vector fields. In the general setting we provide an algorithmic approach, and as an alternative we discuss sigma processes.

Characterizations of Lojasiewicz inequalities and applications

The classical Lojasiewicz inequality and its extensions for partial differential equation problems (Simon) and to o-minimal structures (Kurdyka) have a considerable impact on the analysis of gradient-like methods and related problems: minimization methods, complexity theory, asymptotic analysis of dissipative partial differential equations, tame geometry. This paper provides alternative characterizations of this type of inequalities for nonsmooth lower semicontinuous functions defined on a metric or a real Hilbert space. In a metric context, we show that a generalized form of the Lojasiewicz inequality (hereby called the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality) relates to metric regularity and to the Lipschitz continuity of the sublevel mapping, yielding applications to discrete methods (strong convergence of the proximal algorithm). In a Hilbert setting we further establish that asymptotic properties of the semiflow generated by -∂f are strongly linked to this inequality. This is done by introducing the notion of a piecewise subgradient curve: such curves have uniformly bounded lengths if and only if the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality is satisfied. Further characterizations in terms of talweg lines -a concept linked to the location of the less steepest points at the level sets of f- and integrability conditions are given. In the convex case these results are significantly reinforced, allowing in particular to establish the asymptotic equivalence of discrete gradient methods and continuous gradient curves. On the other hand, a counterexample of a convex C2 function in R2 is constructed to illustrate the fact that, contrary to our intuition, and unless a specific growth condition is satisfied, convex functions may fail to fulfill the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality.

Pharmacokinetics and safety of panobacumab: specific adjunctive immunotherapy in critical patients with nosocomial Pseudomonas aeruginosa O11 pneumonia.

Objectives Nosocomial Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia remains a major concern in critically ill patients. We explored the potential impact of microorganism-targeted adjunctive immunotherapy in such patients. Patients and methods This multicentre, open pilot Phase 2a clinical trial (NCT00851435) prospectively evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics and potential efficacy of three doses of 1.2 mg/kg panobacumab, a fully human monoclonal anti-lipopolysaccharide IgM, given every 72 h in 18 patients developing nosocomial P. aeruginosa (serotype O11) pneumonia. Results Seventeen out of 18 patients were included in the pharmacokinetic analysis. In 13 patients receiving three doses, the maximal concentration after the third infusion was 33.9 ± 8.0 μg/mL, total area under the serum concentration-time curve was 5397 ± 1993 μg h/mL and elimination half-life was 102.3 ± 47.8 h. Panobacumab was well tolerated, induced no immunogenicity and was detected in respiratory samples. In contrast to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) prediction, all 13 patients receiving three doses survived, with a mean clinical resolution in 9.0 ± 2.7 days. Two patients suffered a recurrence at days 17 and 20. Conclusions These data suggest that panobacumab is safe, with a pharmacokinetic profile similar to that in healthy volunteers. It was associated with high clinical cure and survival rates in patients developing nosocomial P. aeruginosa O11 pneumonia. We concluded that these promising results warrant further trials.

Relationships between imatinib plasma levels and efficacy

Purpose: While imatinib has revolutionized the treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), its pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships have been poorly studied. This study aimed to explore the issue in oncologic patients, and to evaluate the specific influence of the target genotype in a GIST subpopulation. Patients and methods: Data from 59 patients (321 plasma samples) were collected during a previous pharmacokinetic study. Based on a population model purposely developed, individual post-hoc Bayesian estimates of pharmacokinetic parameters were derived, and used to estimate drug exposure (AUC; area under curve). Free fraction parameters were deduced from a model incorporating plasma alpha1-acid glycoprotein levels. Associations between AUC (or clearance) and therapeutic response (coded on a 3-point scale), or tolerability (4-point scale), were explored by ordered logistic regression. Influence of KIT genotype on response was also assessed in GIST patients. Results: Total and free drug exposure correlated with the number of side effects (p < 0.005). A relationship with response was not evident in the whole patient set (with good-responders tending to receive lower doses and bad-responders higher doses). In GIST patients however, higher free drug exposure predicted better responses. A strong association was notably observed in patients harboring an exon 9 mutation or a wild type KIT, known to decrease tumor sensitivity towards imatinib (p < 0.005). Conclusions: Our results are arguments to further evaluate the potential benefit of a therapeutic monitoring program for imatinib. Our data also suggest that stratification by genotype will be important in future trials.

Immuno-reactive proteins from Mycobacterium immunogenum useful for serodiagnosis of metalworking fluid hypersensitivity pneumonitis.

Metalworking fluid-associated hypersensitivity pneumonitis (MWF-HP) is a pulmonary disease caused by inhaling microorganisms present in the metalworking fluids used in the industrial sector. Mycobacterium immunogenum is the main etiological agent. Among the clinical, radiological and biological tools used for diagnosis, serological tests are important. The aim of this study was to identify immunogenic proteins in M. immunogenum and to use recombinant antigens for serological diagnosis of MWF-HP. Immunogenic proteins were detected by two-dimensional Western blot and candidate proteins were identified by mass spectrometry. Recombinant antigens were expressed in Escherichia coli and tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with the sera of 14 subjects with MWF-HP and 12 asymptomatic controls exposed to M. immunogenum. From the 350 spots visualized by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis with M. immunogenum extract, 6 immunogenic proteins were selected to be expressed as recombinant antigens. Acyl-CoA dehydrogenase antigen allowed for the best discrimination of MWF-HP cases against controls with an area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.930 (95% CI=0.820-1), a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 83% for the optimum threshold. Other recombinant antigens correspond to acyl-CoA dehydrogenase FadE, cytosol aminopeptidase, dihydrolipoyl dehydrogenase, serine hydroxymethyltransferase and superoxide dismutase. This is the first time that recombinant antigens have been used for the serodiagnosis of hypersensitivity pneumonitis. The availability of recombinant antigens makes it possible to develop standardized serological tests which in turn could simplify diagnosis, thus making it less invasive.