Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

Vision under mesopic and scotopic illumination

Evidence has accumulated that rod activation under mesopic and scotopic light levels alters visual perception and performance. Here we review the most recent developments in the measurement of rod and cone contributions to mesopic color perception and temporal processing, with a focus on data measured using the four-primary photostimulator method that independently controls rod and cone excitations. We discuss the findings in the context of rod inputs to the three primary retinogeniculate pathways to understand rod contributions to mesopic vision. Additionally, we present evidence that hue perception is possible under scotopic, pure rod-mediated conditions that involves cortical mechanisms.

Conformational studies of phynyl and isoxazolyl penicillins

Conformational energy calculations have been carried out on a few representative b-lactamase resistant and susceptible, phenyl and isoxazolyl penicillins. These studies, in agreement with those of earlier workers, show that the 6b-side chains of resistants penicillins are highly rigid as compared to those of susceptible penicillins. The present studies also suggest that the degree of resistant to b-lactamases depends not only on the rigidity of the side chain but also on the nature and orientation of the substituent, beyond the amide carbonyl group in the side chain. The overall shapes of these penicillins correlate well with their antibacterial properties.

Water-ethanol mixtures by molecular dynamics and x-ray Compton scattering

Water-ethanol mixtures are commonly used in industry and house holds. However, quite surprisingly their molecular-level structure is still not completely understood. In particular, there is evidence that the local intermolecular geometries depend significantly on the concentration. The aim of this study was to gain information on the molecular-level structures of water-ethanol mixtures by two computational methods. The methods are classical molecular dynamics (MD), where the movement of molecules can be studied, and x-ray Compton scattering, in which the scattering cross section is sensitive to the electron momentum density. Firstly, the water-ethanol mixtures were studied with MD simulations, with the mixture concentration ranging from 0 to 100%. For the simulations well-established force fields were used for the water and ethanol molecules (TIP4P and OPLS-AA, respectively). Moreover, two models were used for ethanol, rigid and non-rigid. In the rigid model the intramolecular bond lengths are fixed, whereas in the non-rigid model the lengths are determined by harmonic potentials. Secondly, mixtures with three different concentrations employing both ethanol models were studied by calculating the experimentally observable x-ray quantity, the Compton profile. In the MD simulations a slight underestimation in the density was observed as compared to experiment. Furthermore, a positive excess of hydrogen bonding with water molecules and a negative one with ethanol was quantified. Also, the mixture was found more structured when the ethanol concentration was higher. Negligible differences in the results were found between the two ethanol models. In contrast, in the Compton scattering results a notable difference between the ethanol models was observed. For the rigid model the Compton profiles were similar for all the concentrations, but for the non-rigid model they were distinct. This leads to two possibilities of how the mixing occurs. Either the mixing is similar in all concentrations (as suggested by the rigid model) or the mixing changes for different concentrations (as suggested by the non-rigid model). Either way, this study shows that the choice of the force field is essential in the microscopic structure formation in the MD simulations. When the sources of uncertainty in the calculated Compton profiles were analyzed, it was found that more statistics needs to be collected to reduce the statistical uncertainty in the final results. The obtained Compton scattering results can be considered somewhat preliminary, but clearly indicative of the behaviour of the water-ethanol mixtures when the force field is modified. The next step is to collect more statistics and compare the results with experimental data to decide which ethanol model describes the mixture better. This way, valuable information on the microscopic structure of water-ethanol mixtures can be found. In addition, information on the force fields in the MD simulations and on the ability of the MD simulations to reproduce the microscopic structure of binary liquids is obtained.

Plot size matters: interference from intergenotypic competition in plant phenotyping studies

Genetic and physiological studies often comprise genotypes diverse in vigour, size and flowering time. This can make the phenotyping of complex traits challenging, particularly those associated with canopy development, biomass and yield, as the environment of one genotype can be influenced by a neighbouring genotype. Limited seed and space may encourage field assessment in single, spaced rows or in small, unbordered plots, whereas the convenience of a controlled environment or greenhouse makes pot studies tempting. However, the relevance of such growing conditions to commercial field-grown crops is unclear and often doubtful. Competition for water, light and nutrients necessary for canopy growth will be variable where immediate neighbours are genetically different, particularly under stress conditions, where competition for resources and influence on productivity is greatest. Small hills and rod-rows maximise the potential for intergenotypic competition that is not relevant to a crop’s performance in monocultures. Response to resource availability will typically vary among diverse genotypes to alter genotype ranking and reduce heritability for all growth-related traits, with the possible exception of harvest index. Validation of pot experiments to performance in canopies in the field is essential, whereas the planting of multirow plots and the simple exclusion of plot borders at harvest will increase experimental precision and confidence in genotype performance in target environments.

Memoirs.

The material forms only one part of Marianne Lieberman's memoirs. It covers her time in Vienna and Maribor, Slovenia, between the years of 1939 and 1942, with individual chapter headings. Marianne Lieberman remembers her rigid father who would not see her creative talent. She describes early recollections from school, right after the Anschluss in 1938. Her father, being Jewish, had to flee Austria immediately, Marianne Lieberman and her mother went to Slovenia where they stayed with an aunt in 1939. She describes her problems of being baptized. She believed her mother went back to Vienna in 1941, that is why she headed in the same direction. Her first stop was in Graz at a relative's house. Back in Vienna, she was considered a "Mischling" and therefore in danger.

Nonparametric traversability estimation in partially occluded and deformable terrain

Terrain traversability estimation is a fundamental requirement to ensure the safety of autonomous planetary rovers and their ability to conduct long-term missions. This paper addresses two fundamental challenges for terrain traversability estimation techniques. First, representations of terrain data, which are typically built by the rover’s onboard exteroceptive sensors, are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Second, during terrain traversal, the rover-terrain interaction can cause terrain deformation, which may significantly alter the difficulty of traversal. We propose a novel approach built on Gaussian process (GP) regression to learn, and consequently to predict, the rover’s attitude and chassis configuration on unstructured terrain using terrain geometry information only. First, given incomplete terrain data, we make an initial prediction under the assumption that the terrain is rigid, using a learnt kernel function. Then, we refine this initial estimate to account for the effects of potential terrain deformation, using a near-to-far learning approach based on multitask GP regression. We present an extensive experimental validation of the proposed approach on terrain that is mostly rocky and whose geometry changes as a result of loads from rover traversals. This demonstrates the ability of the proposed approach to accurately predict the rover’s attitude and configuration in partially occluded and deformable terrain.

Parity violation in molecular magnetic resonance properties

The Standard Model of particle physics consists of the quantum electrodynamics (QED) and the weak and strong nuclear interactions. The QED is the basis for molecular properties, and thus it defines much of the world we see. The weak nuclear interaction is responsible for decays of nuclei, among other things, and in principle, it should also effects at the molecular scale. The strong nuclear interaction is hidden in interactions inside nuclei. From the high-energy and atomic experiments it is known that the weak interaction does not conserve parity. Consequently, the weak interaction and specifically the exchange of the Z^0 boson between a nucleon and an electron induces small energy shifts of different sign for mirror image molecules. This in turn will make the other enantiomer of a molecule energetically favorable than the other and also shifts the spectral lines of the mirror image pair of molecules into different directions creating a split. Parity violation (PV) in molecules, however, has not been observed. The topic of this thesis is how the weak interaction affects certain molecular magnetic properties, namely certain parameters of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopies. The thesis consists of numerical estimates of NMR and ESR spectral parameters and investigations of the effects of different aspects of quantum chemical computations to them. PV contributions to the NMR shielding and spin-spin coupling constants are investigated from the computational point of view. All the aspects of quantum chemical electronic structure computations are found to be very important, which makes accurate computations challenging. Effects of molecular geometry are also investigated using a model system of polysilyene chains. PV contribution to the NMR shielding constant is found to saturate after the chain reaches a certain length, but the effects of local geometry can be large. Rigorous vibrational averaging is also performed for a relatively small and rigid molecule. Vibrational corrections to the PV contribution are found to be only a couple of per cents. PV contributions to the ESR g-tensor are also evaluated using a series of molecules. Unfortunately, all the estimates are below the experimental limits, but PV in some of the heavier molecules comes close to the present day experimental resolution.

Preparation of Industrially Important Hydroxy Acids and Diacids from 2,2-Disubstituted Propane-1,3-Diols and Linear Primary Diols by Green Chemistry Methods

Environmentally benign and economical methods for the preparation of industrially important hydroxy acids and diacids were developed. The carboxylic acids, used in polyesters, alkyd resins, and polyamides, were obtained by the oxidation of the corresponding alcohols with hydrogen peroxide or air catalyzed by sodium tungstate or supported noble metals. These oxidations were carried out using water as a solvent. The alcohols are also a useful alternative to the conventional reactants, hydroxyaldehydes and cycloalkanes. The oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols with hydrogen peroxide catalyzed by sodium tungstate afforded 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanoic acids and 1,1-disubstituted ethane-1,2-diols as products. A computational study of the Baeyer-Villiger rearrangement of the intermediate 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanals gave in-depth data of the mechanism of the reaction. Linear primary diols having chain length of at least six carbons were easily oxidized with hydrogen peroxide to linear dicarboxylic acids catalyzed by sodium tungstate. The Pt/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols and linear primary diols afforded the highest yield of the corresponding hydroxy acids, while the Pt, Bi/C catalyzed oxidation of the diols afforded the highest yield of the corresponding diacids. The mechanism of the promoted oxidation was best described by the ensemble effect, and by the formation of a complex of the hydroxy and the carboxy groups of the hydroxy acids with bismuth atoms. The Pt, Bi/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2-substituted 2-hydroxymethylpropane-1,3-diols gave 2-substituted malonic acids by the decarboxylation of the corresponding triacids. Activated carbon was the best support and bismuth the most efficient promoter in the air oxidation of 2,2-dialkylpropane-1,3-diols to diacids. In oxidations carried out in organic solvents barium sulfate could be a valuable alternative to activated carbon as a non-flammable support. In the Pt/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols to 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanoic acids the small size of the 2-substituents enhanced the rate of the oxidation. When the potential of platinum of the catalyst was not controlled, the highest yield of the diacids in the Pt, Bi/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-dialkylpropane-1,3-diols was obtained in the regime of mass transfer. The most favorable pH of the reaction mixture of the promoted oxidation was 10. The reaction temperature of 40°C prevented the decarboxylation of the diacids.

Stabilization of Phospholipid Coatings in Capillary Electrophoresis

The development of a simple method of coating a semi-permanent phospholipid layer onto a capillary for electrochromatography use was the focus of this study. The work involved finding good coating conditions, stabilizing the phospholipid coating, and examining the effect of adding divalent cations, cetyltrimethylammonium bromide, and polyethylene glycol (PEG)-lipids on the stability of the coating. Since a further purpose was to move toward more biological membrane coatings, the capillaries were also coated with cholesterol-containing liposomes and liposomes of red blood cell ghost lipids. Liposomes were prepared by extrusion, and large unilamellar vesicles with a diameter of about 100 nm were obtained. Zwitterionic phosphatidylcholine (PC) was used as a basic component, mainly 1-palmitoyl-2-oleyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (POPC) but also eggPC and 1,2-dipalmitoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DPPC). Different amounts of sphingomyelin, bovine brain phosphatidylserine, and cholesterol were added to the PC. The stability of the coating in 40 mM N-(2-hydroxyethyl)piperazine-N’-(2-ethanesulfonic acid) (HEPES) solution at pH 7.4 was studied by measuring the electroosmotic flow and by separating neutral steroids, basic proteins, and low-molar-mass drugs. The presence of PC in the coating solution was found to be essential to achieving a coating. The stability of the coating was improved by the addition of negative phosphatidylserine, cholesterol, divalent cations, or PEGylated lipids, and by working in the gel-state region of the phospholipid. Study of the effect on the PC coating of divalent metal ions calcium, magnesium, and zinc showed a molar ratio of 1:3 PC/Ca2+ or PC/Mg2+ to give increased rigidity to the membrane and the best coating stability. The PEGylated lipids used in the study were sterically stabilized commercial lipids with covalently attached PEG chains. The vesicle size generally decreased when PEGylated lipids of higher molar mass were present in the vesicle. The predominance of discoidal micelles over liposomes increased PEG chain length and the average size of the vesicles thus decreased. In the capillary electrophoresis (CE) measurements a highly stable electroosmotic flow was achieved with 20% PEGylated lipid in the POPC coating dispersion, the best results being obtained for disteroyl PEG (3000) conjugates. The results suggest that smaller particles (discoidal micelles) result in tighter packing and better shielding of silanol groups on the silica wall. The effect of temperature on the coating stability was investigated by using DPPC liposomes at temperatures above (45 C) and below (25 C) the main phase transition temperature. Better results were obtained with DPPC in the more rigid gel state than in the fluid state: the electroosmotic flow was heavily suppressed and the PC coating was stabilized. Also dispersions of DPPC with 0−30 mol% of cholesterol and sphingomyelin in different ratios, which more closely resemble natural membranes, resulted in stable coatings. Finally, the CE measurements revealed that a stable coating is formed when capillaries are coated with liposomes of red blood cell ghost lipids.

Integrating different approaches in the definition of biological stocks: A northern Australian multi-jurisdictional fisheries example using grey mackerel, Scomberomorus semifasciatus

A holistic approach to stock structure studies utilises multiple different techniques on the same individuals sampled from selected populations and combines results across spatial and temporal scales to produce a weight of evidence conclusion. It is the most powerful and reliable source of information to use in formulating resource management and monitoring plans. Few examples of the use of a holistic approach in stock structure studies exist, although more recently this is changing. Using such an approach makes integration of results from each technique challenging. An integrated stock definition (ISD) approach for holistic stock structure studies was developed in this study to aid in the appropriate interpretation of stock structure results to guide the determination of fishery management units. The ISD approach is applied herein to a study of the northern Australian endemic grey mackerel, Scomberomorus semifasciatus (Scombridae). Analyses of genetic (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites), parasite, otolith stable isotope, and growth data are synthesised to determine the stock structure of S. semifasciatus across northern Australia. Integration of the results from all techniques identified at least six S. semifasciatus stocks for management purposes. Further, the use of the ISD approach provided a simple basis for integrating multiple techniques and for their interpretation. The use of this holistic approach was a powerful tool in providing greater certainty about the appropriate management units for S. semifasciatus. Future stock structure studies investigating spatial management questions in the fisheries context should adopt a holistic approach and apply the ISD approach for a more accurate definition of biological stocks to improve fisheries management.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Engine wear and used oil analysis - comparative study in high speed diesel engines

The operational life and reliability of I.C. engines are limited to a certain extent by the break down of the engine components due to wear. It is advantageous to know the condition of an engine and its components without disassembling for detailed measurements. This paper describes the possibility of employing chemical analysis of the used crank case oil to predict the wear of engine components. It is concluded that the acidity and carbon contents of the crank case oil play a significant role in assessing the wear of copper-lead bearings used for the big end of the connecting rod.

Response of Circular Footings to Vertical Vibrations

In this paper, analog solutions are presented for the response of a circular footing resting on an elastic half-space with uniform and parabolic contact pressure distributions and subjected to frequency dependent and frequency independent excitations. In addition, an analog solution to a rigid circular footing subjected to frequency dependent excitation is also presented. The results have been compared with the rigorous solution of Sung and the agreement is found to be good.

Dynamic Instabilities in Slender Space Launch Vehicles under Propulsive Thrust and Aerodynamic Forces

A mechanics based linear analysis of the problem of dynamic instabilities in slender space launch vehicles is undertaken. The flexible body dynamics of the moving vehicle is studied in an inertial frame of reference, including velocity induced curvature effects, which have not been considered so far in the published literature. Coupling among the rigid-body modes, the longitudinal vibrational modes and the transverse vibrational modes due to asymmetric lifting-body cross-section are considered. The model also incorporates the effects of aerodynamic forces and the propulsive thrust of the vehicle. The effects of the coupling between the combustion process (mass variation, developed thrust etc.) and the variables involved in the flexible body dynamics (displacements and velocities) are clearly brought out. The model is one-dimensional, and it can be employed to idealised slender vehicles with complex shapes. Computer simulations are carried out using a standard eigenvalue problem within h-p finite element modelling framework. Stability regimes for a vehicle subjected to propulsive thrust are validated by comparing the results from published literature. Numerical simulations are carried out for a representative vehicle to determine the instability regimes with vehicle speed and propulsive thrust as the parameters. The phenomena of static instability (divergence) and dynamic instability (flutter) are observed. The results at low Mach number match closely with the results obtained from previous models published in the literature.