An investigation of location effect on trip production using artificial neural networks

As traffic congestion exuberates and new roadway construction is severely constrained because of limited availability of land, high cost of land acquisition, and communities' opposition to the building of major roads, new solutions have to be sought to either make roadway use more efficient or reduce travel demand. There is a general agreement that travel demand is affected by land use patterns. However, traditional aggregate four-step models, which are the prevailing modeling approach presently, assume that traffic condition will not affect people's decision on whether to make a trip or not when trip generation is estimated. Existing survey data indicate, however, that differences exist in trip rates for different geographic areas. The reasons for such differences have not been carefully studied, and the success of quantifying the influence of land use on travel demand beyond employment, households, and their characteristics has been limited to be useful to the traditional four-step models. There may be a number of reasons, such as that the representation of influence of land use on travel demand is aggregated and is not explicit and that land use variables such as density and mix and accessibility as measured by travel time and congestion have not been adequately considered. This research employs the artificial neural network technique to investigate the potential effects of land use and accessibility on trip productions. Sixty two variables that may potentially influence trip production are studied. These variables include demographic, socioeconomic, land use and accessibility variables. Different architectures of ANN models are tested. Sensitivity analysis of the models shows that land use does have an effect on trip production, so does traffic condition. The ANN models are compared with linear regression models and cross-classification models using the same data. The results show that ANN models are better than the linear regression models and cross-classification models in terms of RMSE. Future work may focus on finding a representation of traffic condition with existing network data and population data which might be available when the variables are needed to in prediction.

Estimation of ravine sediment production and sediment dynamics in the lower Le Sueur River watershed, Minnesota

This study focuses on quantifying explicitly the sediment budget of deeply incised ravines in the lower Le Sueur River watershed, in southern Minnesota. High-rate-gully-erosion equations along with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were implemented in a numerical modeling approach that is based on a time-integration of the sediment balance equations. The model estimates the rates of ravine width and depth change and the amount of sediment periodically flushing from the ravines. Components of the sediment budget of the ravines were simulated with the model and results suggest that the ravine walls are the major sediment source in the ravines. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the erodibility coefficients of the gully bed and wall, the local slope angle and the Manning’s coefficient are the key parameters controlling the rate of sediment production. Recommendations to guide further monitoring efforts in the watershed and increased detail modeling approaches are highlighted as a result of this modeling effort.

Estimation of Ravine Sediment Production and Sediment Dynamics in the Lower Le Sueur River Watershed, Minnesota

This study focuses on quantifying explicitly the sediment budget of deeply incised ravines in the lower Le Sueur River watershed, in southern Minnesota. High-rate-gully-erosion equations along with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were implemented in a numerical modeling approach that is based on a time-integration of the sediment balance equations. The model estimates the rates of ravine width and depth change and the amount of sediment periodically flushing from the ravines. Components of the sediment budget of the ravines were simulated with the model and results suggest that the ravine walls are the major sediment source in the ravines. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the erodibility coefficients of the gully bed and wall, the local slope angle and the Manning’s coefficient are the key parameters controlling the rate of sediment production. Recommendations to guide further monitoring efforts in the watershed and increased detail modeling approaches are highlighted as a result of this modeling effort.

Physiological response measures (respiration, clearance, byssus production, survival) of Perna viridis during a 91 day exposure experiment to microplastics in Bogor, Indonesia, 2014

Perna viridis from the Bay of Jakarta was exposed to different concentrations (0, 21.6, 216 and 2160 mg/l) of PVC microplastic particles for 91 days in a controlled laboratory experiment. Particles were negatively buoyant, but were regularly resuspended from the sediment, mimicking tidal events. The particles were contaminated with the organic pollutant fluoranthene, except for one control group, which was exposed to the highest plastic concentration (2160 mg/l) but with clean particles. Within the 91 days survival was monitored. After 40 - 44 days of the exposure, physiological responses of all mussel individuals were measured. Respiration rates were measured as the decrease of oxygen in a sealed container in 20 minutes. Clearance rates were determined by measuring the depletion of algal cells in the water in 30 minutes. Byssus production was assessed by counting the number of newly formed byssus discs within 24 hours.

KOSMOS Finland 2012 mesocosm study: primary production and respiration

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are reducing the pH in the world's oceans. The plankton community is a key component driving biogeochemical fluxes, and the effect of increased CO2 on plankton is critical for understanding the ramifications of ocean acidification on global carbon fluxes. We determined the plankton community composition and measured primary production, respiration rates and carbon export (defined here as carbon sinking out of a shallow, coastal area) during an ocean acidification experiment. Mesocosms (~ 55 m3) were set up in the Baltic Sea with a gradient of CO2 levels initially ranging from ambient (~ 240 µatm), used as control, to high CO2 (up to ~ 1330 µatm). The phytoplankton community was dominated by dinoflagellates, diatoms, cyanobacteria and chlorophytes, and the zooplankton community by protozoans, heterotrophic dinoflagellates and cladocerans. The plankton community composition was relatively homogenous between treatments. Community respiration rates were lower at high CO2 levels. The carbon-normalized respiration was approximately 40 % lower in the high CO2 environment compared with the controls during the latter phase of the experiment. We did not, however, detect any effect of increased CO2 on primary production. This could be due to measurement uncertainty, as the measured total particular carbon (TPC) and combined results presented in this special issue suggest that the reduced respiration rate translated into higher net carbon fixation. The percent carbon derived from microscopy counts (both phyto- and zooplankton), of the measured total particular carbon (TPC) decreased from ~ 26 % at t0 to ~ 8 % at t31, probably driven by a shift towards smaller plankton (< 4 µm) not enumerated by microscopy. Our results suggest that reduced respiration lead to increased net carbon fixation at high CO2. However, the increased primary production did not translate into increased carbon export, and did consequently not work as a negative feedback mechanism for increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Half-degree gridded nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for global agriculture production during 1900-2013

In addition to enhance agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically altered global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedbacks to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system/land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use over-simplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long period. We therefore develop a global time-series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in croplands, matched with HYDE 3,2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5º latitude by longitude during 1900-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961, when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) survey of country-level fertilizer input were available. Considering cropland expansion, increase of total fertilizer consumption amount is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer use shifted from the U.S. and Western Europe in the 1960s to East Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input show the similar pattern with additional hotspot in Brazil. We find a global increase of fertilizer N/P ratio by 0.8 g N/g P per decade (p< 0.05) during 1961-2013, which may have important global implication of human impacts on agroecosystem functions in the long run. Our data can serve as one of critical input drivers for regional and global assessment on agricultural productivity, crop yield, agriculture-derived greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, land-to-aquatic nutrient loss, and ecosystem feedback to the climate system.

(Table 3) Barium barite and excess comparison, accumulation rates and productivity from surface sediments

Since Dymond et al. (1992, doi:10.1029/92PA00181) proposed the paleoproductivity algorithm based on "Bio-Ba", which relies on a strong correlation between Ba and organic carbon fluxes in sediment traps, this proxy has been applied in many paleoproductivity studies. Barite, the main carrier of particulate barium in the water column and the phase associated with carbon export, has also been suggested as a reliable paleoproductivity proxy in some locations. We demonstrate that Ba(excess) (total barium minus the fraction associated with terrigenous material) frequently overestimates Ba(barite) (barium associated with the mineral barite), most likely due to the inclusion of barium from phases other than barite and terrigenous silicates (e.g., carbonate, organic matter, opal, Fe-Mn oxides, and hydroxides). A comparison between overlying oceanic carbon export and carbon export derived from Ba(excess) shows that the Dymond et al. (1992) algorithm frequently underestimates carbon export but is still a useful carbon export indicator if all caveats are considered before the algorithm is applied. Ba(barite) accumulation rates from a wide range of core top sediments from different oceanic settings are highly correlated to surface ocean 14C and Chlorophyll a measurements of primary production. This relationship varies by ocean basin, but with the application of the appropriate f ratio to 14C and Chlorophyll a primary production estimates, the plot of Ba(barite) accumulation and carbon export for the equatorial Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern Ocean converges to a global relationship that can be used to reconstruct paleo carbon export.

Radionuclide analyses, and sedimentation and accumulation rates of sediment core PS2319-1

There is increasing evidence indicating that syndepositional redistribution of sediment on the seafloor by bottom currents is common and can significantly affect sediment mass accumulation rates. Notwithstanding its common incidence, this process (generally referred to as sediment focusing) is often difficult to recognize. If redistribution is near synchronous to deposition, the stratigraphy of the sediment is not disturbed and sediment focusing can easily be overlooked. Ignoring it, however, can lead to serious misinterpretations of sedimentary fluxes, particularly when past changes in export flux from the overlying water are inferred. In many instances, this problem can be resolved, at least for sediments deposited during the late Quaternary, by normalizing to the flux of 230Th scavenged from seawater, which is nearly constant and equivalent to the known rate of production of 230Th from the decay of dissolved 234U. We review the principle, advantages and limitations of this method. Notwithstanding its limitations, it is clear that 230Th normalization does provide a means of achieving more accurate interpretations of sedimentary fluxes and eliminates the risk of serious misinterpretations of sediment mass accumulation rates.

Barite Accumulation rates across Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

Barite accumulation rates (BAR) have been measured from 12 DSDP/ODP site globally (DSDP site 525, 549 and ODP site 690, 738, 1051, 1209, 1215, 1220, 1221, 1263,1265 and 1266A) to reconstruct the export production across Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) around 55.9 million year ago. Our results suggesting a general increase in export productivity. We propose that changes in marine ecosystems, resulting from high atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and ocean acidification, led to enhanced carbon export from the photic zone to depth, thereby increasing the efficiency of the biological pump. We estimate that an annual carbon export flux out of the euphotic zone and into the deep ocean waters could have amounted to about 15 Gt during the PETM. About 0.4% of this carbon is expected to have entered the refractory dissolved organic pool, where it could be sequestered from the atmosphere for tens of thousands of years. Our estimates are consistent with the amount of carbon redistribution expected for the recovery from the PETM.

Barite accumulation rates throughout Pliocene-Pleistocene in Eastern Equatorial Pacific at ODP Site 138-849

Export production is an important component of the carbon cycle, modulating the climate system by transferring CO2 from the atmosphere to the deep ocean via the biological pump. Here we use barite accumulation rates to reconstruct export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 4.3 Ma. We find that export production fluctuated considerably on multiple time scales. Export production was on average higher (51 g C/m**2/yr) during the Pliocene than the Pleistocene (40 g C/m**2/yr), decreasing between 3 and 1 Ma (from more than 60 to 20 g C/m**2/yr) followed by an increase over the last million years. These trends likely reflect basin-scale changes in nutrient inventory and ocean circulation. Our record reveals decoupling between export production and temperatures on these long (million years) time scale. On orbital time scales, export production was generally higher during cold periods (glacial maxima) between 4.3 and 1.1 Ma. This could be due to stronger wind stress and higher upwelling rates during glacial periods. A shift in the timing of maximum export production to deglaciations is seen in the last ~1.1 million years. Results from this study suggest that, in the eastern equatorial Pacific, mechanisms that affect nutrient supply and/or ecosystem structure and in turn carbon export on orbital time scales differ from those operating on longer time scales and that processes linking export production and climate-modulated oceanic conditions changed about 1.1 million years ago. These observations should be accounted for in climate models to ensure better predictions of future climate change.

Degradation rates and productivity signals of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst species in surface sediment samples

To understand the role of the ocean within the global carbon cycle, detailed information is required on key-processes within the marine carbon cycle; bio-production in the upper ocean, export of the produced material to the deep ocean and the storage of carbon in oceanic sediments. Quantification of these processes requires the separation of signals of net primary production and the rate of organic matter decay as reflected in fossil sediments. This study examines the large differences in degradation rates of organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst species to separate these degradation and productivity signals. For this, accumulation rates of cyst species known to be resistant (R-cysts) or sensitive (S-cysts) to aerobic degradation of 62 sites are compared to mean annual chlorophyll-a, sea-surface temperature, sea-surface salinity, nitrate and phosphate concentrations of the upper waters and deep-water oxygen concentrations. Furthermore, the degradation of sensitive cysts, as expressed by the degradation constant k and reaction time t, has been related to bottom water [O2]. The studied sediments were taken from the Arabian Sea, north-western African Margin (North Atlantic), western-equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Caraibic, south-western African margin (South Atlantic) and Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector). Significant relationships are observed between (a) accumulation rates of R-cysts and upper water chlorophyll-a concentrations, (b) accumulation rates of S-cysts and bottom water [O2] and (c) degradation rates of S-cysts (kt) and bottom water [O2]. Relationships that are extremely weak or are clearly insignificant on all confidence intervals are between (1) S-cyst accumulation rates and chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-surface salinity (SSS), phosphate concentrations (P) and nitrate concentrations (N), (2) between R-cyst accumulation rates and bottom water [O2], SST, SSS, P and N, and between (3) kt and water depth. Co-variance is present between the parameters N and P, N, P and chlorophyll-a, oxygen and water depth. Correcting for this co-variance does not influence the significance of the relationship given above. The possible applicability of dinoflagellate cyst degradation to estimate past net primary production and deep ocean ventilation is discussed.

(Table 1) Radiolarian accumulation rates and geochemistry of ODP Site 184-1143

Late Miocene-Recent micropaleontological and geochemical records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) indicate that increase and decrease in abundance of siliceous plankton may be controlled mainly by the input of nutrients derived from land and provided by upwelling. A high export production event - a "biogenic bloom" event - occurred in the southern SCS between 12 and 6 Ma. During this period, high ratios of smectite/(illite + chlorite), smectite/quartz and Al/K indicate a high weathering intensity of the Asian continent, possibly due to the intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which may have increased the net flux of nutrients to the ocean, both directly through terrestrial input and indirectly through upwelling activity. A drop in Ba/Ti, Al/Ti and Ca/Ti values around 6 Ma may indicate a lowering of productivity, possibly due to the large consumption of sea surface nutrients by the "biogenic bloom". Alternatively, it may indicate a shift in terrigenous input source area. At about 5.4 Ma, a decrease in weathering intensity, as indicated by a sudden decrease in the values of smectite/(illite + chlorite), smectite/quartz and Al/K, might have led to a sudden decrease of terrestrial nutrient input to the SCS. We suggest that the biogenic bloom ended when nutrients in surface waters were exhausted, because of a decrease in supply as well as a decrease in upwelling intensity due to weakening of the EASM. As a result, radiolarians were absent in the studied area between ~6 and 3.2 Ma. At ~3.2 Ma, radiolarians began to recover, possibly because the start of Northern Hemispheric glaciation and the rapid uplift of the Tibet Plateau led to intensification of the East Asian monsoon. After the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition at 0.9 Ma, the abundance and mass accumulation rates of radiolarians increased, probably as a result of increased upwelling activity driven by the increasing intensity of the summer monsoon.

Mass accumulation rates of IODP Hole 320-U1333C

Understanding changes in export production through time provides insight into the response of the biological pump to global climate change, particularly during periods of rapid climate change. In this study we consider what role changes in export production may have had on carbon sequestration and how this may have contributed to the onset of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT). In addition, we consider if these export production variations are dominantly controlled by orbitally driven climate variability. To accomplish these objectives, we report changes in export production in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) from Site U1333 across the EOT reconstructed from a high-resolution record of marine barite accumulation rates (BAR). BAR fluctuations suggest synchronous declines in export production associated with the two-step increases in oxygen isotopes that define the transition. The reduction in productivity across the EOT suggests that the biological pump did not contribute to carbon sequestration and the cooling over this transition. We also report a previously undocumented peak in EEP export productivity before the EOT onset. This peak is consistent with export production proxies from the Southern Ocean, potentially implying a global driver for this precursor event. We propose that this enhanced export production and the associated carbon sequestration in the late Eocene may have contributed to the pCO2 drawdown at the onset of Antarctic glaciation.