960 resultados para Probabilistic Projections
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Software reconfigurability became increasingly relevant to the architectural process due to the crescent dependency of modern societies on reliable and adaptable systems. Such systems are supposed to adapt themselves to surrounding environmental changes with minimal service disruption, if any. This paper introduces an engine that statically applies reconfigurations to (formal) models of software architectures. Reconfigurations are specified using a domain specific language— ReCooPLa—which targets the manipulation of software coordinationstructures,typicallyusedinservice-orientedarchitectures(soa).Theengine is responsible for the compilation of ReCooPLa instances and their application to the relevant coordination structures. The resulting configurations are amenable to formal analysis of qualitative and quantitative (probabilistic) properties.
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ABSTRACT Objective Investigate the occurrence of dual diagnosis in users of legal and illegal drugs. Methods It is an analytical, cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, non-probabilistic intentional sampling, carried out in two centers for drug addiction treatment, by means of individual interviews. A sociodemographic questionnaire, the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) were used. Results One hundred and ten volunteers divided into abstinent users (group 1), alcoholics (group 2) and users of alcohol and illicit drugs (group 3). The substances were alcohol, tobacco, crack and marijuana. A higher presence of dual diagnosis in group 3 (71.8%) was observed, which decreased in group 2 (60%) and 37.1% of drug abstinent users had psychiatric disorder. Dual diagnosis was associated with the risk of suicide, suicide attempts and the practice of infractions. The crack consumption was associated with the occurrence of major depressive episode and antisocial personality disorder. Conclusion It was concluded that the illicit drug users had a higher presence of dual diagnosis showing the severity of this clinical condition. It is considered essential that this clinical reality is included in intervention strategies in order to decrease the negative effects of consumption of these substances and provide better quality of life for these people.
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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil
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First published online: December 16, 2014.
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This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
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Energy from waste (E/W) technologies in the form o f biogas plants, CHP plants and other municipal solid waste (MSW) conversion technologies, have been gaining steady ground in the provision o f energy throughout Europe and the UK. Urban Waste Water Treatment Plants (UWWTP) are utilising much o f the same biochemical processes common to these E/W plants. Previous studies on Centralised Anaerobic Digestion (CAD) within Ireland found that the legislative and economic conditions were not conducive to such an operation on the grounds o f low energy price for electric and heat energy, and due to the restrictive nature o f the allowable feedstocks. Recent changes to the Irish REFIT tariff on energy produced from Anaerobic digestion; alterations to the regulation o f the allowable use o f animal by products(ABP); the recent enactment o f the Renewable Energy D irective (09/28/EC) and a subsequent review o f the draft Biowaste Directive (2001) required that the issue o f decentralised energy production in Ireland be reassessed. In this instance the feasibility study is based on a extant rural community, centred around the village o f Woodford Co Galway. The review found that the prevailing conditions were now such that it was technically and economically feasible for this biochemical process to provide energy and waste treatment facilities at the above location. The review also outlines the last item which is preventing this process from becoming achievable, specifically the lack o f a digestate regulation on land spreading which deals specifically with biowaste. The study finds that the implementation o f the draft EU biowaste regulations, with amendments for Cr and Hg levels to match the proposed Irish regulation for compost, would ensure that Ireland has some o f the most restrictive regulations in Europe for this application. The delay in completing this piece o f legislation is preventing national energy and waste issues from being resolved in a planned and stepwise fashion. A proposed lay out for the new Integrated Waste from Energy Plant (IW/EP) is presented. Budget economic projections and alternative revenue streams are outlined. Finally a review o f the national policies regarding the Rural Development Plan (RDP), the Rural Planning Guidelines (RPG) and the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) are examined against the relevant EU directives.
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This study explores the perception of risk and the level of risk management implementation in the renewable sector. Risk management is emerging as a key issue due to the loss of confidence amongst banks, causing the attainment of financing to be difficult over the next few years. To attract financing, there is a fundamental requirement to manage risk in a way that minimizes the probability of a negative financial impact on the project. Miller and Lessard (2001) argue that successful projects are not selected but shaped with risk resolution in mind. Rather than evaluating projects at the outset based on projections of the full set of benefits, costs and risks over their lifetime, successful developers start with project ideas that have the potential of becoming viable. Therefore, this study bridges the gap that exists within the renewable sector in relation to risk management literature. This study succeeds through a detailed comparative case study analysis where two developers and two financiers were questioned through qualitative semi-structured interviews on the concept of risk management and its level implementation within the industry. It is believed that the growth in financed renewable energy projects depends on the adequate design and implementation of risk management to mitigate inherent project risks. However, this study revealed that are certain types of developers in existence within the renewable sector, which underestimate the magnitude of risk and view the development of projects as a ‘money racket’. Therefore, it can be concluded that perception of risk will also differ, causing risk and uncertainty to vary from project to project, resulting in investment reluctance to be associated with certain projects. The study originality lies in how it demonstrates to developers the concept of risk management, outlining the simplicity and benefits of implementing it in project development. Finally, this study contributes to the knowledge by enhancing the awareness and understanding of the presence and nature of risk in a RE project environment.
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CGRP amygdala thalamus fear blood pressure heart rate body temperature telemetry tracing projections
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Telecommunications and network technology is now the driving force that ensures continued progress of world civilization. Design of new and expansion of existing network infrastructures requires improving the quality of service(QoS). Modeling probabilistic and time characteristics of telecommunication systems is an integral part of modern algorithms of administration of quality of service. At present, for the assessment of quality parameters except simulation models analytical models in the form of systems and queuing networks are widely used. Because of the limited mathematical tools of models of these classes the corresponding parameter estimation of parameters of quality of service are inadequate by definition. Especially concerning the models of telecommunication systems with packet transmission of multimedia real-time traffic.
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Three new species of Cephalobium Cobb, 1920, C. laplata from City Bell, C. polidentatum from Lincoln and C. dispar from Gorina, parasites of Gryllodes laplatae Saussure, 1877 from Buenos Aires, Argentina, are described and illustrated. Cephalobium laplata can be differentiated by having the cheilostom with a dorsal unmovable tooth, telostom with three ventral little teeth and two ventral movable claw teeth and gubernaculum triangular and five pairs of genital papillae. Cephalobium polidentatum has cheilostom with a movable ventral tooth, prostom with four dorsal movable teeth and telostom with three teeth; gubernaculum triangular with projections and with one pair of preanal and six pairs of postanal papillae. Cephalobium dispar is characterized by having telostom with two wings around the spicules and one pair of preanal and six pairs postanal papillae.
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The present study compares the metanotal gland through scanning electron microscopy in five species of Eidmanacris: E. corumbatai Garcia, 1998, E. alboannulata (Piza, 1960), E. dissimilis Desutter-Grandcolas, 1995, E. larvaeformis (Chopard, 1938) and Eidmanacris sp. The general external configuration of the gland was determined by the presence of two median projections with apical opening and a cluster of bristles just above these projections. Although there is a general pattern for this gland, each species has its own pattern, which can be defined mainly by the arrangement of the bristles and the position of the median projections. Our results suggest the taxonomical importance of these structures, which should be better analyzed when describing species of the genus Eidmanacris. In addition, while observing the reproductive behavior of these species, we concluded that the release of this gland secretion is important for the success of mating.
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Surveys for freshwater sponges were performed at several water bodies at sandy environments along a north-south direction of particularly the Brazilian coastal line. The results allowed for the distinction of four different species-specific environments along this coastal border. The main fact considered was the dominant or the sole recurrent occurrence of a single sponge species at one particular habitat. The first one is that of the lagoonal mesohaline habitats at the tropical and subtropical realms, indicated by Spongilla alba Carter, 1849. The second one refers to shallow ponds among dunes at the tropical area indicated by Corvoheteromeyenia heterosclera (Ezcurra de Drago, 1974). The third one is that of also shallow ponds close to the dune belt at the temperate region indicated by Racekiela sheilae (Volkmer-Ribeiro, De Rosa-Barbosa & Tavares, 1988). The fourth one is that of organically enriched environments, at the marginal areas of lagoons and mouth of small rivers, evolving towards freshwater muddy ponds and coastal swamps, not far from the ocean border: Ephydatia facunda Weltner, 1895 is the species to occupy this habitat with almost exclusiveness. The above species are thus proposed as indicators of such habitats and have their descriptions improved and that of their environments summarized. A taxonomic key based on the spicules of the four species is proposed. The results presented aim to contribute to the identification of spicules of these sponges in sediment columns recovered at the Brazilian and South American coastal area. Determination of paleo ocean borders are a present issue of upmost importance in what respects projections of timing and fluctuations of ascending/regressing sea levels.
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ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.
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We analyze the classical Bertrand model when consumers exhibit some strategic behavior in deciding from which seller they will buy. We use two related but different tools. Both consider a probabilistic learning (or evolutionary) mechanism, and in the two of them consumers' behavior in uences the competition between the sellers. The results obtained show that, in general, developing some sort of loyalty is a good strategy for the buyers as it works in their best interest. First, we consider a learning procedure described by a deterministic dynamic system and, using strong simplifying assumptions, we can produce a description of the process behavior. Second, we use nite automata to represent the strategies played by the agents and an adaptive process based on genetic algorithms to simulate the stochastic process of learning. By doing so we can relax some of the strong assumptions used in the rst approach and still obtain the same basic results. It is suggested that the limitations of the rst approach (analytical) provide a good motivation for the second approach (Agent-Based). Indeed, although both approaches address the same problem, the use of Agent-Based computational techniques allows us to relax hypothesis and overcome the limitations of the analytical approach.
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In this paper, a new class of generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations is investigated. This class involves an integral with respect to an adapted continuous increasing process. A probabilistic representation for viscosity solutions of semi-linear stochastic partial differential equations with a Neumann boundary condition is given.