Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Olfactory traces and spatial learning in rats.

We conducted an experiment to assess the use of olfactory traces for spatial orientation in an open environment in rats, Rattus norvegicus. We trained rats to locate a food source at a fixed location from different starting points, in the presence or absence of visual information. A single food source was hidden in an array of 19 petri dishes regularly arranged in an open-field arena. Rats were trained to locate the food source either in white light (with full access to distant visuospatial information) or in darkness (without any visual information). In both cases, the goal was in a fixed location relative to the spatial frame of reference. The results of this experiment revealed that the presence of noncontrolled olfactory traces coherent with the spatial frame of reference enables rats to locate a unique position as accurately in darkness as with full access to visuospatial information. We hypothesize that the olfactory traces complement the use of other orientation mechanisms, such as path integration or the reliance on visuospatial information. This experiment demonstrates that rats can rely on olfactory traces for accurate orientation, and raises questions about the establishment of such traces in the absence of any other orientation mechanism. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

L' Aprenentatge basat en problemes a través de casos clínics simulats. Una proposta metodològica de disseny i avaluació docent

RESUM Les exigències actuals de la professió de d’infermeria requereixen que la docència vagi orientada a interrelacionar els diferents rols a desenvolupar enla pràctica diària, per adquirir experiència en l’aprenentatge i així augmentar la qualitat de les cures d’infermeria. Per assolir aquest objectiu és important l’aprenentatge basat enproblemes. Aquest pretén en primer lloc que els estudiants aprenguin allò que permet desenvolupar-se enla vida professional de la manera més natural possible a partir d’una idea clara i profunda de l’evidència sobre la que s’ha d’actuar. Amb aquesta finalitat es vandissenyar casos clínics amb uns objectius que requerien la integració de coneixements, actituds i valors, en diferents fases a desenvolupar en un període de temps predeterminat. També ens vam proposar una estratègia docent que permetés a l’estudiant incorporar el coneixement científic que dóna suport a la pràctica assistencial per aproximar teoria i pràctica. Es pretén que els estudiants busquin una resposta basada en la millor evidència científica disponible, per prendre una decisió respecte a les cures del pacient. Els objectius de l’estudi són: Avaluar globalment l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos Avaluar com els estudiants valoren la integració del model d’infermeria i del procés d’atenció en l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos. Valorar les sensacions percebudes per l’estudiant durant la simulació del cas. Valorar l’actitud d el’estudiant en relació a la incorporació de l’evidència científica per una millora en la pràctica clínica. Avaluar el grau de dificultat manifestat per l’estudiant en relació al procés de documentació. Avaluar la idonietat de l’argumentació i la decisió de l’estudiant a la pregunta formulada en el cas clínic. Metodologia: L’assignatura d’Infermeria Medicoquirúrgica. Adult I del Departament d’Infermeria de la Universitat de Vic, va iniciar una experiència d’aprenentatge basat en la resolució de problemes, amb estudiants de 2on curs. Les professores responsables dels seminaris van realitzar una avaluació de l’experiència a través d’una enquesta. Aquesta es responia al cap d’un mes de la simulació al laboratori, quan es contrastaven els resultats obtinguts en aquesta entre professores i estudiants després de visualitzar la gravació feta durant el mateix. En el context del seminari de simulació de casos, es va introduir una pregunta/problema, a partir de la que els estudiants, en grup, havien de documentar-se amb el suport d’una guia. Per valorar l’actitud davant aquesta pregunta/problema es va dissenyar un qustionari tipus Likert. L’avaluació del grau de dificultat s’ha registrat a través d’unes escales de puntuació. Per a l’avaluació de la decisió presa, es van valorar les síntesis resum entregades en els treballs escrits pels diferents grups. Resultats: La realització de la simulació en el laboratori va ser avaluada per un alt percentatge d’estudiants (68,8%) amb puntuacions entre 6 i 8 mentre que un 26,6% la van situar en tre 9 i 10, només un 4,7 % la van puntuar amb 5. La integració del model d’infermeria va ser valorada pel 86% amb una puntuació entre 7 i 10. La valoració global de la simulació va ser qualificada pels estudiants amb una puntuació de 8 (34,4%) seguida d’un 28,1% amb una consideració de 7. Un 7,2% van puntuar entre 9 i 10. El 93,3% van assegurar que conèixer les fonts documentals els serviria per millorar l’assistència, el 86,7% esperen obtenir arguments sòlids respecte les seves desicions si la documentació consultada és de qualitat. Un 77,8% dels estudiants consideren estar més satisfets al saber incorporar la presa de decisions basada en evidències. Respecte el grau de dificultat en el procés de documentació la dificultat més gran la presenten en com buscar en les bases de dades de referències bibliogràfiques. Conclusions: L’aprenentatge dels estudiants a través de la simulació de casos és una estratègia vàlida que l’estudiant valora positivament al mateix temps que permet desenvolupar habilitats per a la pràctica professional. L’estratègia docent dissenyada per integrar les evidències en la presa de decisions es considera positiva, no obstant, després d’analitzar els resultats, s’han de modificar alguns aspectes per a la seva millora; tutoritzar per a millorar el procés de documentació i incidir més en la crítica i reflexió, de manera que les troballes de la investigació siguin canalitzades cap a la pràctica.

Nouvelles directives assécurologiques pour la prise en charge de la chirurgie bariatrique: conséquences pratiques [New guidelines for bariatric surgery care: practical implications].

From the 1st of January 2011, new conditions have been validated in which surgery for weight loss is borne by the basic insurance. These are very significant changes compared to the old criteria. Indeed, on one hand, patients with BMI > or = 35 kg/m2 may, without age limit and in the absence of comorbidities benefit from surgery without prior request to the medical council health insurance company concerned. On the other hand, the notion of a minimum casuistry is for the first time introduced in centers performing this type of intervention. In addition, certified centers are required to follow standard procedures for the patients' teaching and follow up.

Family relationships and learning experiences in anxious vs. non-anxious families: Are there differences ?

L'objectif principal de ce travail était d'explorer les relations parent-enfant et les processus d'apprentissage familiaux associés aux troubles anxieux. A cet effet, des familles ayant un membre anxieux (la mère ou l'enfant) ont été comparées avec des familles n'ayant aucun membre anxieux. Dans une première étude, l'observation de l'interaction mère-enfant, pendant une situation standardisée de jeu, a révélé que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus susceptibles de se montrer verbalement contrôlantes, critiques et moins sensibles aux besoins de l'enfant, que les mères qui ne présentaient pas de trouble panique. Une deuxième étude a examiné les perceptions des différents membres de la famille quant aux relations au sein de la famille et a indiqué que, par comparaison aux adolescents non-anxieux, les adolescents anxieux étaient plus enclins à éprouver un sentiment d'autonomie individuelle diminué par rapport à leurs parents. Finalement, une troisième étude s'est intéressée à déterminer l'impact d'expériences d'apprentissage moins directes dans l'étiologie de l'anxiété. Les résultats ont indiqué que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus enclines à s'engager dans des comportements qui maintiennent la panique et à impliquer leurs enfants dans ces comportements, que les mères ne présentant pas de trouble panique. En se basant sur des recherches antérieures qui ont établi une relation entre le contrôle parental, la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant et les troubles anxieux, le présent travail non seulement confirme ce lien mais propose également un modèle pour résumer l'état actuel des connaissances concernant les processus familiaux et le développement des troubles anxieux. Deux routes ont été suggérées par lesquelles l'anxiété pourrait être transmise de manière intergénérationnelle. Chacune de ces routes attribue un rôle important à la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant. L'idée est que lorsque les enfants présentent une prédisposition à interpréter le comportement de leurs parents comme hors de leur contrôle, ils seraient plus enclins à développer de l'anxiété. A ce titre, la perception du contrôle représenterait un tampon entre le comportement de contrôle/surprotection des parents et le trouble anxieux chez l'enfant. - The principal objective of the present work was to explore parent-child relationships and family learning processes associated with anxiety disorders. To this purpose, families with and without an anxious family member (mother or child) were compared. In a first study, observation of mother-child interaction, during a standard play situation, revealed that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to display verbal control and criticism, and less likely to display sensitivity toward their children than mothers without panic disorder. A second study examined family members' perceptions of family relationships and indicated that compared to non-anxious adolescents, anxious adolescents were more prone to experience a diminished sense of individual autonomy in relation to their parents. Finally a third study was interested in determining the effect of less direct learning experiences in the aetiology of anxiety. Results indicated that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to engage in panic-maintaining behaviour and to involve their children in this behaviour than mothers without panic disorder. Based on previous research showing a relationship between parental control, children's perception of control, and anxiety disorders, the present work not only further adds evidence to support this link but also proposes a model summarizing the current knowledge concerning family processes and the development of anxiety disorders. Two pathways have been suggested through which anxiety may be intergenerationally transmitted. Both pathways assign an important role to children's perception of control. The idea is that whenever children have a predisposition towards interpreting their parents' behaviour as beyond of their control, they may be more prone to develop anxiety. As such, perceived control may represent a buffer between parental overcontrolling/overprotective behaviours and childhood anxiety disorder.

Using active learning for monitoring networks design: The example of wind power plants sites evaluation

Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

Influence of local environmental olfactory cues on place learning in rats

The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of local environmental olfactory cues on place learning in rats. We developed a new experimental design allowing the comparison of the use of local olfactory and visual cues in spatial and discrimination learning. We compared the effect of both types of cues on the discrimination of a single food source in an open-field arena. The goal was either in a fixed or in a variable location, and could be indicated by local olfactory and/or visual cues. The local cues enhanced the discrimination of the goal dish, whether it was in a fixed or in a variable location. However, we did not observe any overshadowing of the spatial information by the local olfactory or visual cue. Rats relied primarily on distant visuospatial information to locate the goal, neglecting local information when it was in conflict with the spatial information.

Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria

We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

A behavioral study of alpha-1b adrenergic receptor knockout mice: increased reaction to novelty and selectively reduced learning capacities.

Knockout mice lacking the alpha-1b adrenergic receptor were tested in behavioral experiments. Reaction to novelty was first assessed in a simple test in which the time taken by the knockout mice and their littermate controls to enter a second compartment was compared. Then the mice were tested in an open field to which unknown objects were subsequently added. Special novelty was introduced by moving one of the familiar objects to another location in the open field. Spatial behavior and memory were further studied in a homing board test, and in the water maze. The alpha-1b knockout mice showed an enhanced reactivity to new situations. They were faster to enter the new environment, covered longer paths in the open field, and spent more time exploring the new objects. They reacted like controls to modification inducing spatial novelty. In the homing board test, both the knockout mice and the control mice seemed to use a combination of distant visual and proximal olfactory cues, showing place preference only if the two types of cues were redundant. In the water maze the alpha-1b knockout mice were unable to learn the task, which was confirmed in a probe trial without platform. They were perfectly able, however, to escape in a visible platform procedure. These results confirm previous findings showing that the noradrenergic pathway is important for the modulation of behaviors such as reaction to novelty and exploration, and suggest that this is mediated, at least partly, through the alpha-1b adrenergic receptors. The lack of alpha-1b adrenergic receptors in spatial orientation does not seem important in cue-rich tasks but may interfere with orientation in situations providing distant cues only.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

We extend the linear reforms introduced by Pf¨ahler (1984) to the case of dual taxes. We study the relative effect that linear dual tax cuts have on the inequality of income distribution -a symmetrical study can be made for dual linear tax hikes-. We also introduce measures of the degree of progressivity for dual taxes and show that they can be connected to the Lorenz dominance criterion. Additionally, we study the tax liability elasticity of each of the reforms proposed. Finally, by means of a microsimulation model and a considerably large data set of taxpayers drawn from 2004 Spanish Income Tax Return population, 1) we compare different yield-equivalent tax cuts applied to the Spanish dual income tax and 2) we investigate how much income redistribution the dual tax reform (Act ‘35/2006’) introduced with respect to the previous tax.

Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.