Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Trust, leadership and economic necessity in post-compulsory education

Trust is a complex concept that has increasingly been debated in academic research (Kramer and Tyler, 1996). Research on 'trust and leadership' (Caldwell and Hayes, 2007) has suggested, unsurprisingly, that leadership behaviours influence 'follower' perceptions of leaders' trustworthiness. The development of 'ethical stewardship' amongst leaders may foster high trust situations (Caldwell, Hayes, Karri and Bernal, 2008), yet studies on the erosion of teacher professionalism in UK post-compulsory education have highlighted the distrust that arguably accompanies 'new managerialism', performativity and surveillance within a climate of economic rationalisation established by recent deterministic skills-focused government agendas for education (Avis, 2003; Codd, 1999, Deem, 2004, DFES, 2006). Given the shift from community to commercialism identified by Collinson and Collinson (2005) in a global economic environment characterised by uncertainty and rapid change, trust is, simultaneously, increasingly important and progressively both more fragile and limited in a post compulsory education sector dominated by skills-based targets and inspection demands. Building on such prior studies, this conference paper reports on the analysis of findings from a 2007-8 funded research study on 'trust and leadership' carried out in post-compulsory education. The research project collected and analysed case study interview and survey data from the lifelong learning sector, including selected tertiary, further and higher education (FE and HE) institutions. We interviewed 18 UK respondents from HE and FE, including principals, middle managers, first line managers, lecturers and researchers, supplementing and cross-checking this with a small number of survey responses (11) on 'trust and leadership' and a larger number (241) of survey responses on more generalised leadership issues in post-compulsory education. A range of facilitators and enablers of trust and their relationship to leadership were identified and investigated. The research analysed the ways in which interviewees defined the concept of 'trust' and the extent to which they identified that trust was a mediating factor affecting leadership and organisational performance. Prior literature indicates that trust involves a psychological state in which, despite dependency, risk and vulnerability, trustors have some degree of confident expectation that trustees will behave in benevolent rather than detrimental ways. The project confirmed the views of prior researchers (Mayer, Davis and Schoorman, 1995) that, since trust inevitably involves potential betrayal, estimations of leadership 'trustworthiness' are based on followers' cognitive and affective perceptions of the reliability, competence, benevolence and reputation of leaders. During the course of the interviews it also became clear that some interviewees were being managed in more or less transaction-focused, performative, audit-dominated cultures in which trust was not regarded as particularly important: while 'cautious trust' existed, collegiality flourished only marginally in small teams. Economic necessity and survival were key factors influencing leadership and employee behaviours, while an increasing distance was reported between senior managers and their staff. The paper reflects on the nature of the public sector leadership and management environment in post-compulsory education reported by interviewees and survey respondents. Leadership behaviours to build trust are recommended, including effective communication, honesty, integrity, authenticity, reliability and openness. It was generally felt that building trust was difficult in an educational environment largely determined by economic necessity and performativity. Yet, despite this, the researchers did identify a number of examples of high trust leadership situations that are worthy of emulation.

The Olympic Games and urban displacement: the case of Beijing

Urban spectacles such as the Olympic Games have been long perceived as being able to impose desired effects in the city that act as host. This kind of urban boost may include the creation of new jobs and revenue for local community, growth in tourism and convention business, improvements to city infrastructure and environment, and the stimulation of broad reform in the social, political and institutional realm. Nevertheless at the other end of the debate, the potentially detrimental impacts of Olympic urban development, particularly on disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, have also been increasingly noticed in recent years and subsequently cited by a number of high profile anti-Olympic groups to campaign against Olympic bids and awards. The common areas of concern over Olympic-related projects include the cost and debts risk, environmental threat, the occurrence of social imbalance, and disruption and disturbance of existing community life. Among these issues, displacement of low income households and squatter communities resulting from Olympic-inspired urban renewal are comparatively under-explored and have emerged as an imperative area for research inquiry. This is particularly the case where many other problems have become less prominent. Changing a city’s demographic landscape, particularly displacing lower income people from the area proposed for a profitable development is a highly contentious matter in its own right. Some see it as a natural and inevitable outgrowth of the process of urban evolution, without which cities cannot move towards a more attractive location for consumption-based business. Others believe it reflects urban crises and conflicts, highlighting the market failures, polarization and injustice. Regardless of perception,these phenomena are visible everywhere in post-industrial cities and particularly cannot be ignored when planning for the Olympic Games and other mega-events. The aim of this paper is to start the process of placing the displacement issue in the context of Olympic preparation and to seek a better understanding of their interrelations. In order to develop a better understanding of this issue in terms of cause, process, influential factors and its implication on planning policy, this paper studies the topic from both theoretic and empirical angles. It portrays various situations where the Olympics may trigger or facilitate displacement in host cities during the preparation of the Games, identifies several major variables that may affect the process and the overall outcome, and explores what could be learnt in generic terms for planning Olympic oriented infrastructure so that ill-effects to the local community can be effectively controlled. The paper concludes that the selection of development sites, the integration of Olympic facilities with the city’s fabric, the diversity of housing type produced for local residents and the dynamics of the new socioeconomic structure.