Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Understanding Patients’ Needs and Healthcare Seeking Behavior in Rural Southern India: The Comparison of Providers through Patients’ Perceptions and Cost Issues

This study explores patients’ needs in rural Thanjavur, southern India through understanding how people with diabetes choose providers and perceive care-seeking experience. To measure perception, the study surveyed people regarding six common barriers to care-seeking behavior, selected from both literature and local expert interview. Ninety-one percent of the sampled population goes to public or private allopathic providers out of the six presented providers. The low socioeconomic group and people with more complications or comorbidities are more likely to go to private allopathic providers. What is more, there is no difference between public and private allopathic providers in patients’ perception of care except for perceived cost. Positive perceptions in both providers are very common except for perceptions in blood-sugar management, distance to facilities, and cost of care. Sixty-six percent of patients perceived their blood-sugar control to fluctuate or have no change versus improved control. Twenty-seven percent of patients perceived the distance to facilities as unreasonable, and sixty-two percent of patients perceived the cost as high for them. The results suggest that cost may affect low socioeconomic people’s choice of care significantly. However, for people in middle and higher socioeconomic groups, cost does not appear to be a major factor. For qualitative text analyses, physician’s behavior and reputation emerge as themes, which require further studies.

Exploring associations between violent discipline and aggressive behavior in children ages 4-5 in The Republic of Nicaragua: A secondary data analysis of the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Changes In Motor Behavior During Pregnancy In Rats: The Basis For A Possible Animal Model Of Restless Legs Syndrome.

Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS - sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features. We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation. There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05). These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.

A simple procedure for reliability assessment of thin composite plates against buckling

In some circumstances ice floes may be modeled as beams. In general this modeling supposes constant thickness, which contradicts field observations. Action of currents, wind and the sequence of contacts, causes thickness to vary. Here this effect is taken into consideration on the modeling of the behavior of ice hitting inclined walls of offshore platforms. For this purpose, the boundary value problem is first equated. The set of equations so obtained is then transformed into a system of equations, that is then solved numerically. For this sake an implicit solution is developed, using a shooting method, with the accompanying Jacobian. In-plane coupling and the dependency of the boundary terms on deformation, make the problem non-linear and the development particular. Deformation and internal resultants are then computed for harmonic forms of beam profile. Forms of giving some additional generality to the problem are discussed.

Interaction and behavior of virgin and physogastric queens in three Meliponini species (Hymenoptera, Apidae)

We studied the behavior of virgin queens of the stingless bee species Schwarziana quadripunctata, Paratrigona lineata and Tetragona clavipes, investigating internal nest activities, including the cell provisioning and oviposition process. We made direct observation of queen behavior, with the aid of video filming. Forty-four virgin queens of S. quadripunctata were observed; one was larger and more attractive than the others. Miniature queens were more abundant than normal-size queens; both were found in prison chambers. Agonistic behavior between virgin and physogastric queens of P. lineata was observed during attempts at queen supersedure. After the disappearance of the physogastric queen and the appearance of a virgin queen in T. clavipes nests, the brood cells were sealed with pollen alone, but no egg. In all three species, the presence of one or more virgin queens appeared to make the colonies nervous, even though constant production of virgin queens is vital to the survival of the colony and is part of the colony cycle in these bees.

Variations on a theme: diversification of cuticular hydrocarbons in a clade of cactophilic Drosophila

Background: We characterized variation and chemical composition of epicuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) in the seven species of the Drosophila buzzatii cluster with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Despite the critical role of CHCs in providing resistance to desiccation and involvement in communication, such as courtship behavior, mating, and aggregation, few studies have investigated how CHC profiles evolve within and between species in a phylogenetic context. We analyzed quantitative differences in CHC profiles in populations of the D. buzzatii species cluster in order to assess the concordance of CHC differentiation with species divergence. Results: Thirty-six CHC components were scored in single fly extracts with carbon chain lengths ranging from C(29) to C(39), including methyl-branched alkanes, n alkenes, and alkadienes. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that CHC amounts were significantly different among all species and canonical discriminant function (CDF) analysis resolved all species into distinct, non-overlapping groups. Significant intraspecific variation was found in different populations of D. serido suggesting that this taxon is comprised of at least two species. We summarized CHC variation using CDF analysis and mapped the first five CHC canonical variates (CVs) onto an independently derived period (per) gene + chromosome inversion + mtDNA COI gene for each sex. We found that the COI sequences were not phylogenetically informative due to introgression between some species, so only per + inversion data were used. Positive phylogenetic signal was observed mainly for CV1 when parsimony methods and the test for serial independence (TFSI) were used. These results changed when no outgroup species were included in the analysis and phylogenetic signal was then observed for female CV3 and/or CV4 and male CV4 and CV5. Finally, removal of divergent populations of D. serido significantly increased the amount of phylogenetic signal as up to four out of five CVs then displayed positive phylogenetic signal. Conclusions: CHCs were conserved among species while quantitative differences in CHC profiles between populations and species were statistically significant. Most CHCs were species-, population-, and sex-specific. Mapping CHCs onto an independently derived phylogeny revealed that a significant portion of CHC variation was explained by species' systematic affinities indicating phylogenetic conservatism in the evolution of these hydrocarbon arrays, presumptive waterproofing compounds and courtship signals as in many other drosophilid species.

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations between Traumatic Events and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Community and clinical data have suggested there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behavior (i.e., suicide ideation, plans and attempts). However, few studies have assessed which traumas are uniquely predictive of: the first onset of suicidal behavior, the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts, or the persistence of each form of suicidal behavior over time. Moreover, few data are available on such associations in developing countries. The current study addresses each of these issues. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on trauma exposure and subsequent first onset of suicidal behavior were collected via structured interviews conducted in the households of 102,245 (age 18+) respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and subsequent suicidal behavior. A range of traumatic events are associated with suicidal behavior, with sexual and interpersonal violence consistently showing the strongest effects. There is a dose-response relationship between the number of traumatic events and suicide ideation/attempt; however, there is decay in the strength of the association with more events. Although a range of traumatic events are associated with the onset of suicide ideation, fewer events predict which people with suicide ideation progress to suicide plan and attempt, or the persistence of suicidal behavior over time. Associations generally are consistent across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides more detailed information than previously available on the relationship between traumatic events and suicidal behavior and indicates that this association is fairly consistent across developed and developing countries. These data reinforce the importance of psychological trauma as a major public health problem, and highlight the significance of screening for the presence and accumulation of traumatic exposures as a risk factor for suicide ideation and attempt.

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations among Mental Disorders and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings: Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9-8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5-5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions: This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts.

Hygienic behavior of the stingless bee Plebeia remota (Holmberg, 1903) (Apidae, Meliponini)

We investigated hygienic behavior in 10 colonies of Plebeia remota, using the pin-killed method. After 24 h the bees had removed a mean of 69.6% of the dead brood. After 48 h, the bees had removed a mean of 96.4% of the dead brood. No significant correlation was found between the size of the brood comb and the number of dead pupae removed, and there was no apparent effect of the origin and the condition of the colony on the hygienic behavior of the bees. Plebeia remota has an efficiency of hygienic behavior superior to that of three of the other four stingless bee species studied until now.

Power-law creep behavior of a semiflexible chain

Rheological properties of adherent cells are essential for their physiological functions, and microrheological measurements on living cells have shown that their viscoelastic responses follow a weak power law over a wide range of time scales. This power law is also influenced by mechanical prestress borne by the cytoskeleton, suggesting that cytoskeletal prestress determines the cell's viscoelasticity, but the biophysical origins of this behavior are largely unknown. We have recently developed a stochastic two-dimensional model of an elastically joined chain that links the power-law rheology to the prestress. Here we use a similar approach to study the creep response of a prestressed three-dimensional elastically jointed chain as a viscoelastic model of semiflexible polymers that comprise the prestressed cytoskeletal lattice. Using a Monte Carlo based algorithm, we show that numerical simulations of the chain's creep behavior closely correspond to the behavior observed experimentally in living cells. The power-law creep behavior results from a finite-speed propagation of free energy from the chain's end points toward the center of the chain in response to an externally applied stretching force. The property that links the power law to the prestress is the chain's stiffening with increasing prestress, which originates from entropic and enthalpic contributions. These results indicate that the essential features of cellular rheology can be explained by the viscoelastic behaviors of individual semiflexible polymers of the cytoskeleton.

Monte Carlo investigation of the critical behavior of Stavskaya's probabilistic cellular automaton

Stavskaya's model is a one-dimensional probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) introduced in the end of the 1960s as an example of a model displaying a nonequilibrium phase transition. Although its absorbing state phase transition is well understood nowadays, the model never received a full numerical treatment to investigate its critical behavior. In this Brief Report we characterize the critical behavior of Stavskaya's PCA by means of Monte Carlo simulations and finite-size scaling analysis. The critical exponents of the model are calculated and indicate that its phase transition belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behavior, as would be expected on the basis of the directed percolation conjecture. We also explicitly establish the relationship of the model with the Domany-Kinzel PCA on its directed site percolation line, a connection that seems to have gone unnoticed in the literature so far.

Protein-polysaccharide viscoelastic matrices: synergic effects of amylose on lysozyme physical gelation in aqueous dimethylsulfoxide

A synergic effect of amylose on rheological characteristics of lysozyme physical gels evolved out of dimethylsulfoxide-water was verified and analyzed. The dynamics of the gels were experimentally approached by oscillatory rheology. The synergic effect was characterized by a decrease in the threshold DMSO volume fraction required for lysozyme gelation, and by a significant strengthening of the gel structure at over-critical solvent and protein concentrations. Drastic changes in the relaxation and creep curve patterns for systems in the presence of amylose were verified. Complex viscosity dependence on temperature was found to conform to an Arrhenius-like equation, allowing the determination of an activation energy term (Ea, apparent) for discrimination of gel rigidity. A dilatant effect was found to be induced by temperature on the flow behavior of lysozyme dispersions in DMSO-H(2)O in sub-critical conditions for gelation, which was greatly intensified by the presence of amylose in the samples. That transition was interpreted as reflecting a change from a predominant colloidal flow regime, where globular components are the prevailing structural elements, to a mainly fibrillar, polymeric flow behavior.

Timoshenko versus Euler beam theory: Pitfalls of a deterministic approach

The selection criteria for Euler-Bernoulli or Timoshenko beam theories are generally given by means of some deterministic rule involving beam dimensions. The Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model the behavior of flexure-dominated (or ""long"") beams. The Timoshenko theory applies for shear-dominated (or ""short"") beams. In the mid-length range, both theories should be equivalent, and some agreement between them would be expected. Indeed, it is shown in the paper that, for some mid-length beams, the deterministic displacement responses for the two theories agrees very well. However, the article points out that the behavior of the two beam models is radically different in terms of uncertainty propagation. In the paper, some beam parameters are modeled as parameterized stochastic processes. The two formulations are implemented and solved via a Monte Carlo-Galerkin scheme. It is shown that, for uncertain elasticity modulus, propagation of uncertainty to the displacement response is much larger for Timoshenko beams than for Euler-Bernoulli beams. On the other hand, propagation of the uncertainty for random beam height is much larger for Euler beam displacements. Hence, any reliability or risk analysis becomes completely dependent on the beam theory employed. The authors believe this is not widely acknowledged by the structural safety or stochastic mechanics communities. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysing the base of precast column in socket foundations with smooth interfaces

This paper analyzes the behavior of the base of a precast column in the socket foundation with smooth interfaces. This research is motivated by the lack of information and guidelines on the behavior of column bases in the embedded region. An experimental program with two full-scale specimens was carried-out. These two specimens had smooth interfaces at the internal faces of the socket, different embedded lengths and were subjected to loads with large eccentricities. The experimental results showed that the failure of the specimens occurred by the yielding of the longitudinal reinforcement out of the embedded region, while the transverse reinforcement was not very stressed. Some recommendations on the anchorage of the longitudinal reinforcement and a strut-and-tie model for the behavior of column bases in the embedded region are proposed.