Variational inference for Student-t MLP models

This paper presents a novel methodology to infer parameters of probabilistic models whose output noise is a Student-t distribution. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to nonlinear multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). We used an EM algorithm combined with variational approximation, the evidence procedure, and an optimisation algorithm. The technique was tested on two regression applications. The first one is a synthetic dataset and the second is gas forward contract prices data from the UK energy market. The results showed that forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using Student-t noise models.

Signal power excursion and pump efficiency in quasi-lossless ultra-long Raman laser links

Performance optimisation of ultra-long Raman laser links is studied theoretically and experimentally. We observe that it is possible to reduce signal power excursion by adjusting FBG reflectivity without compromising pump efficiency.

Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed

Long distance dispersion managed soliton transmission experiments

This thesis presents results of transmission experiments using optical solitons in a dispersion managed optical fibre recirculating loop. The basic concepts of pulse propagation in optical fibre are introduced before optical solitons and their use in optically amplified fibre systems are discussed. The role of dispersion management in such systems is then considered. The design, operation and limitations of the recirculating loop and soliton sources which were used and the experimental techniques are described before the experimental work is presented. The experimental work covers a number of areas all of which used dispersion management of the transmission line. A novel ultra-long distance propagation scheme which achieved low timing jitter by suppression of the amplifier noise and by working close to the zero dispersion wavelength has been discovered. The use of fibre Bragg gratings as wavelength filters to suppress noise and reduce timing jitter has been investigated. The performance of the fibre grating cornpared favourably with that of a bulk device and was in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The upgrade of existing standard fibre systems to higher bit rates is currently an important issue. The possibility of using solitons with dispersion compensation to allow an increase in data rate of existing standard fibre systems to 10Gbit/s over 5000km has been demonstrated. The applicability of this technique to longer distances, higher bit rates or longer amplifier spans is also investigated by optimisation of the dispersion management scheme. The use of fibre Bragg gratings as the dispersion compensating elements in such standard fibre transmission experiments has been examined and the main problem that these devices currently have, high polarisation mode dispersion, is discussed. The likely future direction of optical communications and what part solitons and dispersion management will play in this development is discussed in the thesis conclusions

Mathematical and numerical modelling of dispersion-managed solitons, autosolitons and self-similar optical pulses

This thesis presents theoretical investigation of three topics concerned with nonlinear optical pulse propagation in optical fibres. The techniques used are mathematical analysis and numerical modelling. Firstly, dispersion-managed (DM) solitons in fibre lines employing a weak dispersion map are analysed by means of a perturbation approach. In the case of small dispersion map strengths the average pulse dynamics is described by a perturbation approach (NLS) equation. Applying a perturbation theory, based on the Inverse Scattering Transform method, an analytic expression for the envelope of the DM soliton is derived. This expression correctly predicts the power enhancement arising from the dispersion management.Secondly, autosoliton transmission in DM fibre systems with periodical in-line deployment of nonlinear optical loop mirrors (NOLMs) is investigated. The use of in-line NOLMs is addressed as a general technique for all-optical passive 2R regeneration of return-to-zero data in high speed transmission system with strong dispersion management. By system optimisation, the feasibility of ultra-long single-channel and wavelength-division multiplexed data transmission at bit-rates ³ 40 Gbit s-1 in standard fibre-based systems is demonstrated. The tolerance limits of the results are defined.Thirdly, solutions of the NLS equation with gain and normal dispersion, that describes optical pulse propagation in an amplifying medium, are examined. A self-similar parabolic solution in the energy-containing core of the pulse is matched through Painlevé functions to the linear low-amplitude tails. The analysis provides a full description of the features of high-power pulses generated in an amplifying medium.

Experimental and theoretical characterisation of tunable fibre gratings

This thesis presents details on both theoretical and experimental aspects of UV written fibre gratings. The main body of the thesis deals with the design, fabrication and testing of telecommunication optical fibre grating devices, but also an accurate theoretical analysis of intra-core fibre gratings is presented. Since more than a decade, fibre gratings have been extensively used in the telecommunication field (as filters, dispersion compensators, and add/drop multiplexers for instance). Gratings for telecommunication should conform to very high fabrication standards as the presence of any imperfection raises the noise level in the transmission system compromising its ability of transmitting intelligible sequence of bits to the receiver. Strong side lobes suppression and high and sharp reflection profile are then necessary characteristics. A fundamental part of the theoretical and experimental work reported in this thesis is about apodisation. The physical principle of apodisation is introduced and a number of apodisation techniques, experimental results and numerical optimisation of the shading functions and all the practical parameters involved in the fabrication are detailed. The measurement of chromatic dispersion in fibres and FBGs is detailed and an estimation of its accuracy is given. An overview on the possible methods that can be implemented for the fabrication of tunable fibre gratings is given before detailing a new dispersion compensator device based on the action of a distributed strain onto a linearly chirped FBG. It is shown that tuning of second and third order dispersion of the grating can be obtained by the use of a specially designed multipoint bending rig. Experiments on the recompression of optical pulses travelling long distances are detailed for 10 Gb/s and 40 Gb/s. The characterisation of a new kind of double section LPG fabricated on a metal-clad coated fibre is reported. The fabrication of the device is made easier by directly writing the grating through the metal coating. This device may be used to overcome the recoating problems associated with standard LPGs written in step-index fibre. Also, it can be used as a sensor for simultaneous measurements of temperature and surrounding medium refractive index.

Numerical modelling of devices and advanced transmission schemes embracing Raman effect

This thesis presents a theoretical investigation on applications of Raman effect in optical fibre communication as well as the design and optimisation of various Raman based devices and transmission schemes. The techniques used are mainly based on numerical modelling. The results presented in this thesis are divided into three main parts. First, novel designs of Raman fibre lasers (RFLs) based on Phosphosilicate core fibre are analysed and optimised for efficiency by using a discrete power balance model. The designs include a two stage RFL based on Phosphosilicate core fibre for telecommunication applications, a composite RFL for the 1.6 μm spectral window, and a multiple output wavelength RFL aimed to be used as a compact pump source for fiat gain Raman amplifiers. The use of Phosphosilicate core fibre is proven to effectively reduce the design complexity and hence leads to a better efficiency, stability and potentially lower cost. Second, the generalised Raman amplified gain model approach based on the power balance analysis and direct numerical simulation is developed. The approach can be used to effectively simulate optical transmission systems with distributed Raman amplification. Last, the potential employment of a hybrid amplification scheme, which is a combination between a distributed Raman amplifier and Erbium doped amplifier, is investigated by using the generalised Raman amplified gain model. The analysis focuses on the use of the scheme to upgrade a standard fibre network to 40 Gb/s system.

Fibre-based devices for next generation photonics communication systems

The future broadband information network will undoubtedly integrate the mobility and flexibility of wireless access systems with the huge bandwidth capacity of photonics solutions to enable a communication system capable of handling the anticipated demand for interactive services. Towards wide coverage and low cost implementations of such broadband wireless photonics communication networks, various aspects of the enabling technologies are continuingly generating intense research interest. Among the core technologies, the optical generation and distribution of radio frequency signals over fibres, and the fibre optic signal processing of optical and radio frequency signals, have been the subjects for study in this thesis. Based on the intrinsic properties of single-mode optical fibres, and in conjunction with the concepts of optical fibre delay line filters and fibre Bragg gratings, a number of novel fibre-based devices, potentially suitable for applications in the future wireless photonics communication systems, have been realised. Special single-mode fibres, namely, the high birefringence (Hi-Bi) fibre and the Er/Yb doped fibre have been employed so as to exploit their merits to achieve practical and cost-effective all-fibre architectures. A number of fibre-based complex signal processors for optical and radio frequencies using novel Hi-Bi fibre delay line filter architectures have been illustrated. In particular, operations such as multichannel flattop bandpass filtering, simultaneous complementary outputs and bidirectional nonreciprocal wavelength interleaving, have been demonstrated. The proposed configurations featured greatly reduced environmental sensitivity typical of coherent fibre delay line filter schemes, reconfigurable transfer functions, negligible chromatic dispersions, and ease of implementation, not easily achievable based on other techniques. A number of unique fibre grating devices for signal filtering and fibre laser applications have been realised. The concept of the superimposed fibre Bragg gratings has been extended to non-uniform grating structures and into Hi-Bi fibres to achieve highly useful grating devices such as overwritten phase-shifted fibre grating structure and widely/narrowly spaced polarization-discriminating filters that are not limited by the intrinsic fibre properties. In terms of the-fibre-based optical millimetre wave transmitters, unique approaches based on fibre laser configurations have been proposed and demonstrated. The ability of the dual-mode distributed feedback (DFB) fibre lasers to generate high spectral purity, narrow linewidth heterodyne signals without complex feedback mechanisms has been illustrated. A novel co-located dual DFB fibre laser configuration, based on the proposed superimposed phase-shifted fibre grating structure, has been further realised with highly desired operation characteristics without the need for costly high frequency synthesizers and complex feedback controls. Lastly, a novel cavity mode condition monitoring and optimisation scheme for short length, linear-cavity fibre lasers has been proposed and achieved. Based on the concept and simplicity of the superimposed fibre laser cavities structure, in conjunction with feedback controls, enhanced output performances from the fibre lasers have been achieved. The importance of such cavity mode assessment and feedback control for optimised fibre laser output performance has been illustrated.

Raman amplification and performance altering effects

This thesis presents an experimental investigation into several applications of the Raman scattering effect in communication optical fibres as well as how some of these applications can be modified to enhance the resulting performance. The majority of the work contained within is based on laboratory results using many commercially available components. The results can be divided into and presented in three main parts: Firstly, a novel application of a known effect is used to broaden Raman pump light in order to achieve a more continuous distribution of gain with respect to wavelength. Multiple experimental results are presented, all based around the prior spreading of the pump spectrum before being used in the desired transmission fibre. Gathered results show that a notable improvement can be obtained from applying such a technique along with the scope for further optimisation work. Secondly, an investigation into the interaction between the well known effect of Four Wave Mixing (FWM) and Raman scattering is provided. The work provides an introduction to the effect as well commenting on previous literature regarding the effect and its mitigation. In response to existing research experimental results are provided detailing some limitations of proposed schemes along with concepts of how further alleviation from the deleterious effects maybe obtained. Lastly, the distributed nature of the Raman gain process is explored. A novel technique on how a near constant distribution of gain can be employed is implemented practically. The application of distributed gain is then applied to the generation of optical pulses with special mathematical properties within a laboratory setting and finally the effect of pump noise upon distributed gain techniques is acknowledged.

Fabrication and applications of fibre Bragg gratings

The consequences of fabricating Bragg gratings in various fibres, with or without hydrogen loading, and with varying laser power levels are explored. Three new techniques for fabricating chirped gratings are presented. Beams with dissimilar wavefront curvatures are interfered to give chirped gratings. With the same aim techniques of writing gratings on tapered fibres and on deformed fibres are also covered. With these techniques, a wide variety of gratings has been fabricated from the 'superbroad' (with bandwidths of up to 180 nm), small to medium bandwidth gratings with linear chirp profiles and quadratic chirped gratings. It is demonstrated that chirped grating can be concatenated to form all-fibre Fabry-Perot and Moiré resonators. These are further concatenated with chirped gratings to produce filters with narrow passbands and very broad stopbands. A number of other applications are also addressed. The use of chirped fibre gratings for dispersion compensation and femtosecond chirped pulse amplification is demonstrated. Chirped gratings are used as dispersive elements in modelocked fibre lasers producing ultrashort pulses. A chirped fibre grating Fabry-Perot transmission filter is used in a continuous wave laser that exhibits eleven simultaneously lasing wavelengths. Finally, the use of grating-coupler devices as variable reflectivity mirrors for laser optimisation and gain clamping is considered.

Numerical modelling of advanced modulation formats and WDM transmission

This thesis presents a theoretical investigation of the application of advanced modelling formats in high-speed fibre lightwave systems. The first part of this work focuses on numerical optimisation of dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) system design. We employ advanced spectral domain filtering techniques and carrier pulse reshaping. We then apply these optimisation methods to investigate spectral and temporal domain characteristics of advanced modulation formats in fibre optic telecommunication systems. Next we investigate numerical methods used in detecting and measuring the system performance of advanced modulation formats. We then numerically study the combination of return-to-zero differential phase-shift keying (RZ-DPSK) with advanced photonic devices. Finally we analyse the dispersion management of Nx40 Gbit/s RZ-DPSK transmission applied to a commercial terrestrial lightwave system.

An investigation of thin amorphous carbon-based sputtered coatings for MEMS and micro-engineering applications

The work presented in this thesis describes an investigation into the production and properties of thin amorphous C films, with and without Cr doping, as a low wear / friction coating applicable to MEMS and other micro- and nano-engineering applications. Firstly, an assessment was made of the available testing techniques. Secondly, the optimised test methods were applied to a series of sputtered films of thickness 10 - 2000 nm in order to: (i) investigate the effect of thickness on the properties of coatingslcoating process (ii) investigate fundamental tribology at the nano-scale and (iii) provide a starting point for nanotribological coating optimisation at ultra low thickness. The use of XPS was investigated for the determination of Sp3/Sp2 carbon bonding. Under C 1s peak analysis, significant errors were identified and this was attributed to the absence of sufficient instrument resolution to guide the component peak structure (even with a high resolution instrument). A simple peak width analysis and correlation work with C KLL D value confirmed the errors. The use of XPS for Sp3/Sp2 was therefore limited to initial tentative estimations. Nanoindentation was shown to provide consistent hardness and reduced modulus results with depth (to < 7nm) when replicate data was suitably statistically processed. No significant pile-up or cracking of the films was identified under nanoindentation. Nanowear experimentation by multiple nanoscratching provided some useful information, however the conditions of test were very different to those expect for MEMS and micro- / nano-engineering systems. A novel 'sample oscillated nanoindentation' system was developed for testing nanowear under more relevant conditions. The films were produced in an industrial production coating line. In order to maximise the available information and to take account of uncontrolled process variation a statistical design of experiment procedure was used to investigate the effect of four key process control parameters. Cr doping was the most significant control parameter at all thicknesses tested and produced a softening effect and thus increased nanowear. Substrate bias voltage was also a significant parameter and produced hardening and a wear reducing effect at all thicknesses tested. The use of a Cr adhesion layer produced beneficial results at 150 nm thickness, but was ineffective at 50 nm. Argon flow to the coating chamber produced a complex effect. All effects reduced significantly with reducing film thickness. Classic fretting wear was produced at low amplitude under nanowear testing. Reciprocating sliding was produced at higher amplitude which generated three body abrasive wear and this was generally consistent with the Archard model. Specific wear rates were very low (typically 10-16 - 10-18 m3N-1m-1). Wear rates reduced exponentially with reduced film thickness and below (approx.) 20 nm, thickness was identified as the most important control of wear.

Representation and parameterisation issues in genetic algorithms

A multi-chromosome GA (Multi-GA) was developed, based upon concepts from the natural world, allowing improved flexibility in a number of areas including representation, genetic operators, their parameter rates and real world multi-dimensional applications. A series of experiments were conducted, comparing the performance of the Multi-GA to a traditional GA on a number of recognised and increasingly complex test optimisation surfaces, with promising results. Further experiments demonstrated the Multi-GA's flexibility through the use of non-binary chromosome representations and its applicability to dynamic parameterisation. A number of alternative and new methods of dynamic parameterisation were investigated, in addition to a new non-binary 'Quotient crossover' mechanism. Finally, the Multi-GA was applied to two real world problems, demonstrating its ability to handle mixed type chromosomes within an individual, the limited use of a chromosome level fitness function, the introduction of new genetic operators for structural self-adaptation and its viability as a serious real world analysis tool. The first problem involved optimum placement of computers within a building, allowing the Multi-GA to use multiple chromosomes with different type representations and different operators in a single individual. The second problem, commonly associated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS), required a spatial analysis location of the optimum number and distribution of retail sites over two different population grids. In applying the Multi-GA, two new genetic operators (addition and deletion) were developed and explored, resulting in the definition of a mechanism for self-modification of genetic material within the Multi-GA structure and a study of this behaviour.

Mathematical methods in power system stability studies

In this thesis various mathematical methods of studying the transient and dynamic stabiIity of practical power systems are presented. Certain long established methods are reviewed and refinements of some proposed. New methods are presented which remove some of the difficulties encountered in applying the powerful stability theories based on the concepts of Liapunov. Chapter 1 is concerned with numerical solution of the transient stability problem. Following a review and comparison of synchronous machine models the superiority of a particular model from the point of view of combined computing time and accuracy is demonstrated. A digital computer program incorporating all the synchronous machine models discussed, and an induction machine model, is described and results of a practical multi-machine transient stability study are presented. Chapter 2 reviews certain concepts and theorems due to Liapunov. In Chapter 3 transient stability regions of single, two and multi~machine systems are investigated through the use of energy type Liapunov functions. The treatment removes several mathematical difficulties encountered in earlier applications of the method. In Chapter 4 a simple criterion for the steady state stability of a multi-machine system is developed and compared with established criteria and a state space approach. In Chapters 5, 6 and 7 dynamic stability and small signal dynamic response are studied through a state space representation of the system. In Chapter 5 the state space equations are derived for single machine systems. An example is provided in which the dynamic stability limit curves are plotted for various synchronous machine representations. In Chapter 6 the state space approach is extended to multi~machine systems. To draw conclusions concerning dynamic stability or dynamic response the system eigenvalues must be properly interpreted, and a discussion concerning correct interpretation is included. Chapter 7 presents a discussion of the optimisation of power system small sjgnal performance through the use of Liapunov functions.

Studies on enhanced surface disinfection and skin antisepsis using chlorhexidine and eucalyptus oil

Healthcare associated infections may arise from many sources, including patient?s own skin flora and the clinical environment, and inflict a significant burden within the health service. Adequate and effective skin antisepsis and surface disinfection are therefore essential factors in infection control. Current EPIC guidelines recommend 2 % chlorhexidine (CHG) in 70 % isopropyl alcohol (IPA) for skin antisepsis however poor penetration has been reported. Eucalyptus oil (EO) is a known permeation enhancer, producing synergistic antimicrobial activity when combined with CHG. In this current study, the antimicrobial efficacy of EO and its main constituent 1,8-cineole were assessed against a panel of clinically relevant microorganisms, alone and in combination with CHG. The superior antimicrobial efficacy of EO compared with 1,8-cineole, and synergistic effects with CHG against planktonic and biofilm cultures, confirmed its suitability for use in subsequent studies within this thesis. Impregnation of EO, CHG and IPA onto prototype hard surface disinfectant wipes demonstrated significantly improved efficacy compared with CHG/IPA wipes, with clear reductions in the time required to eliminate biofilms. Optimisation of the EO/CHG/IPA formulation resulted in the development of Euclean® wipes, with simulated-use and time kill studies confirming their ability to remove microbial surface contamination, prevent cross contamination and eliminate biofilms within 10 minutes. The employment of isothermal calorimetry provided additional information on the type and rate of antimicrobial activity possessed by Euclean® wipes. A clinical audit of the Euclean® wipes at Birmingham Children?s Hospital, Birmingham, U.K. revealed divided staff opinion, with the highest cited advantage and disadvantage concerning the odour. Finally, skin penetration and cell toxicity studies of EO/CHG biopatches and Euclean® solution developed during this study, revealed no permeation into human skin following biopatch application, and no significant toxicity. These current studies enhance the knowledge regarding EO and its potential applications.