Context costs and comparative advantages in the telecommunications sector in Portugal and China

This Work Project aims to discuss the Context Costs and Comparative Advantages of the Telecommunications sector both in Portugal and China. The work was built mostly on primary research by interviews with relevant people (business persons, University Professors and Agencies directors), and by economic data publicly available. A list of context costs and comparative advantages was drawn for each country and possible resolutions suggestions were made in the end. The context costs depend heavily on the economic situation of the countries and it should be taken into account when assessing the degree of magnitude of each cost of context. The competitive advantages of each country were drawn in comparison with one another. Some key results stand out: firstly, Portugal’s costs of context depend mainly on governmental decisions, uncertainties and instability and China’s cost of context depend primarily on cultural norms, mainly the Guanxi; second, the telecommunications sector shares most of its context costs and advantages with other sectors; third, China as an economic power could use the telecommunications sector as a way to further develop and boost its economy.

Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Application of Fuzzy Variables for Systems of Management Decision Support

The following article describes an approach covering the variety of opinions and uncertainties of estimates within the chosen technique of decision support. Mathematical operations used for assessment of options are traced to operations of working with functions that are used for assessment of possible options of decision-making. Approach proposed could be used within any technique of decision support based on elementary mathematical operations. In this article the above-mentioned approach is described under analytical hierarchy process.

Analyse des risques d'extinction des populations naturelles

A review of extinction risk analysis and viability methods is presented. The importance of environmental, demographic and genetic uncertainties, as well as the role of catastrophes are successively considered, and different approaches aiming at the integration of these risk factors in predictive population dynamic models are discussed.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Seven years of gamma-ray spectrometry interlaboratory comparisons in Switzerland.

Since the 1990s, regular comparisons of gamma-ray spectrometry in Switzerland were organized to improve laboratory abilities to measure the radioactivity in the environment and food stuffs at typical routine levels. The activity concentration of the test samples and the evaluation of the associated uncertainties remained each year the main required test result. Over the years, the comparisons used certified reference solutions as well as environmental samples. The aim of this study is to research the effect of the comparisons on measurement quality. An analysis of the seven last interlaboratory comparisons revealed that the Swiss measurement capability is up to date. In addition, the results showed that the participants now have an improved evaluation of the uncertainties associated with their measurement.

Development of a Business Model that Supports Mobile Value-Added Services Market Creation in Emerging Countries

Tutkielman tavoitteena on luoda liiketoimintamalli, joka tukee langattomien matkaviestintäpalveluiden markkinoiden luomista kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Teoreettinen osa tarkastelee langattomien matkaviestintäpalveluiden liiketoimintamallin kehittämisen tärkeimpiä elementtejä CIS maissa. Teoreettisen kappaleen tuloksena saadaan puitteet, jonka avulla liiketoimintamalli matkaviestintäpalveluille voidaan kehittää. Tutkielman empiirinen osa on toteutettu case tutkimuksena, jonka tavoitteena on ollut langattomien matkaviestintäpalvelujen markkinoiden luominen CIS maissa. Pääasiallinen empiirisen tiedon lähde on ollut teemahaastattelut. Tuloksena saatuja empiirisen osan tietoja verrataan teoriakappaleen vastaaviin tuloksiin Tulokset osoittavat, että radikaalin korkean teknologian innovaation markkinoiden luominen on hidas prosessi, joka vaatii kärsivällisyyttä yritykseltä. Markkinoiden, teknologian ja strategian epävarmuustekijät tuovat epävarmuutta kehittyvälle toimialalle ja markkinoille, joka vaikeuttaa liiketoimintamallin kehittämistä. Tärkein tekijä on palvelujen markkinointi ennemmin kuin teknologian. Avain kyvykkyys markkinoiden luomisessa on oppiminen, ei tietäminen.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Confocal and two-photon microscopy : image enhancement /

Confocal and two-photon microcopy have become essential tools in biological research and today many investigations are not possible without their help. The valuable advantage that these two techniques offer is the ability of optical sectioning. Optical sectioning makes it possible to obtain 3D visuahzation of the structiu-es, and hence, valuable information of the structural relationships, the geometrical, and the morphological aspects of the specimen. The achievable lateral and axial resolutions by confocal and two-photon microscopy, similar to other optical imaging systems, are both defined by the diffraction theorem. Any aberration and imperfection present during the imaging results in broadening of the calculated theoretical resolution, blurring, geometrical distortions in the acquired images that interfere with the analysis of the structures, and lower the collected fluorescence from the specimen. The aberrations may have different causes and they can be classified by their sources such as specimen-induced aberrations, optics-induced aberrations, illumination aberrations, and misalignment aberrations. This thesis presents an investigation and study of image enhancement. The goal of this thesis was approached in two different directions. Initially, we investigated the sources of the imperfections. We propose methods to eliminate or minimize aberrations introduced during the image acquisition by optimizing the acquisition conditions. The impact on the resolution as a result of using a coverslip the thickness of which is mismatched with the one that the objective lens is designed for was shown and a novel technique was introduced in order to define the proper value on the correction collar of the lens. The amoimt of spherical aberration with regard to t he numerical aperture of the objective lens was investigated and it was shown that, based on the purpose of our imaging tasks, different numerical apertures must be used. The deformed beam cross section of the single-photon excitation source was corrected and the enhancement of the resolution and image quaUty was shown. Furthermore, the dependency of the scattered light on the excitation wavelength was shown empirically. In the second part, we continued the study of the image enhancement process by deconvolution techniques. Although deconvolution algorithms are used widely to improve the quality of the images, how well a deconvolution algorithm responds highly depends on the point spread function (PSF) of the imaging system applied to the algorithm and the level of its accuracy. We investigated approaches that can be done in order to obtain more precise PSF. Novel methods to improve the pattern of the PSF and reduce the noise are proposed. Furthermore, multiple soiu'ces to extract the PSFs of the imaging system are introduced and the empirical deconvolution results by using each of these PSFs are compared together. The results confirm that a greater improvement attained by applying the in situ PSF during the deconvolution process.

Improving Performance of Open Access Clinics

Open Access Scheduling has shown great promise in allowing health care practices to provide same-day access, and to match patients with their regular physicians. However, similarly to traditional clinics where appointments are pre-booked, open access clinics are also frustrated with long waits, long idle time and long overtime due to uncertainties such as patient no-shows, variable service time and variable daily demand. These aspects have not been studied previously in an open access setting. This study investigates different management options to improve clinical performance in terms of patient waiting time, doctor idle time and clinic overtime. Other factors studied with a simulation model include client load and placement of pre-booked slots. Results show that a proper panel size is critical to obtain good performance for open access clinics, and that good choices for management options depend on the client load.

Infrared thermography: A non-invasive window into thermal physiology

Infrared thermography is a non-invasive technique that measures mid to long-wave infrared radiation emanating from all objects and converts this to temperature. As an imaging technique, the value of modern infrared thermography is its ability to produce a digitized image or high speed video rendering a thermal map of the scene in false colour. Since temperature is an important environmental parameter influencing animal physiology and metabolic heat production an energetically expensive process, measuring temperature and energy exchange in animals is critical to understanding physiology, especially under field conditions. As a non-contact approach, infrared thermography provides a non-invasive complement to physiological data gathering. One caveat, however, is that only surface temperatures are measured, which guides much research to those thermal events occurring at the skin and insulating regions of the body. As an imaging technique, infrared thermal imaging is also subject to certain uncertainties that require physical modeling, which is typically done via built-in software approaches. Infrared thermal imaging has enabled different insights into the comparative physiology of phenomena ranging from thermogenesis, peripheral blood flow adjustments, evaporative cooling, and to respiratory physiology. In this review, I provide background and guidelines for the use of thermal imaging, primarily aimed at field physiologists and biologists interested in thermal biology. I also discuss some of the better known approaches and discoveries revealed from using thermal imaging with the objective of encouraging more quantitative assessment.

The Efficient Use of Multiple Sources of a Nonrenewable Resource under Supply Cost Uncertainty

Uncertainties as to future supply costs of nonrenewable natural resources, such as oil and gas, raise the issue of the choice of supply sources. In a perfectly deterministic world, an efficient use of multiple sources of supply requires that any given market exhausts the supply it can draw from a low cost source before moving on to a higher cost one; supply sources should be exploited in strict sequence of increasing marginal cost, with a high cost source being left untouched as long as a less costly source is available. We find that this may not be the efficient thing to do in a stochastic world. We show that there exist conditions under which it can be efficient to use a risky supply source in order to conserve a cheaper non risky source. The benefit of doing this comes from the fact that it leaves open the possibility of using it instead of the risky source in the event the latter’s future cost conditions suddenly deteriorate. There are also conditions under which it will be efficient to use a more costly non risky source while a less costly risky source is still available. The reason is that this conserves the less costly risky source in order to use it in the event of a possible future drop in its cost.

Les questions de compétence internationale des tribunaux québécois soulevées par le recours collectif multi-juridictionnel : pragmatisme ou cohérence théorique

"Mémoire présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de LL.M. en droit des affaires"

La chaîne de responsabilité de la sécurité maritime

"Mémoire présenté à la faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de maître en droit (LL.M.)". Ce mémoire a été accepté à l'unanimité et classé parmi les 15% des mémoires de la discipline.

Analyse bayésienne et élicitation d’opinions d’experts en analyse de risques et particulièrement dans le cas de l’amiante chrysotile

L’appréciation de la puissance cancérogène des fibres d’amiante chrysotile repose en grande partie sur des jugements subjectifs et incertains des experts et des analystes en raison des résultats hétérogènes et équivoques d’études épidémiologiques et toxicologiques sérieuses. L’approche probabiliste bayésienne en évaluation de risques peut formaliser l’impact des jugements subjectifs et de leurs incertitudes sur les estimations de risques, mais elle est encore peu utilisée en santé publique. Le présent travail examine la possibilité d’appliquer l’approche bayésienne dans une récente élicitation d’opinions d’experts pour estimer la toxicité du chrysotile, le degré de consensus et de divergence, ainsi que les niveaux d’incertitude des experts. Les estimations des experts concordaient assez bien sur la différence de toxicité entre chrysotile et amphiboles pour les mésothéliomes. Pour le cancer du poumon, les évaluations probabilistes étaient bien plus disparates. Dans ce cas, les jugements des experts semblaient influencés à différents degrés par des biais heuristiques, surtout les heuristiques d’affect et d’ancrage liés à la controverse du sujet et à l’hétérogénéité des données. Une méthodologie rigoureuse de préparation des experts à l’exercice d’élicitation aurait pu réduire l’impact des biais et des heuristiques sur le panel.