Malthus to Solow

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modem industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth. This transition is inevitable given positive rates oftotal factor productivity growth. We use a standard growth mode1 with one good and two available techno10gies. The first, denoted the "Malthus" technology, requires 1and, labor and reproducible capital as inputs. The second, denoted the "Solow" technology, does not require land. We show that in the earIy stages of development, only the Malthus technology is used and, due to population growth, living standards are stagnant despite technological progresso Eventually, technological progress causes the Solow technology to become profitable and both technologies are employed. At this point, living standards improve since population growth has less influence on per capita income growth. In the limit, the economy behaves like a standard Solow growth model.

Moral hazard and nonlinear pricing in a general equilibrium model

The paper analyzes a two period general equilibrium model with individual risk and moral hazard. Each household faces two individual states of nature in the second period. These states solely differ in the household's vector of initial endowments, which is strictly larger in the first state (good state) than in the second state (bad state). In the first period households choose a non-observable action. Higher leveis of action give higher probability of the good state of nature to occur, but lower leveIs of utility. Households have access to an insurance market that allows transfer of income across states of oature. I consider two models of financiaI markets, the price-taking behavior model and the nonlínear pricing modelo In the price-taking behavior model suppliers of insurance have a belief about each household's actíon and take asset prices as given. A variation of standard arguments shows the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium. For a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constraíned sub-optímal: there are commodity prices and a reallocation of financiaI assets satisfying the first period budget constraint such that, at each household's optimal choice given those prices and asset reallocation, markets clear and every household's welfare improves. In the nonlinear pricing model suppliers of insurance behave strategically offering nonlinear pricing contracts to the households. I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and investigate the optimality properties of the modeI. If there is a single commodity then every equilibrium is constrained optimaI. Ir there is more than one commodity, then for a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constrained sub-optimaI.

Temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs under asset market segmentation

This paper analyses the welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. Differently than previous papers, however, here we assume that only a fraction of households participates in asset market transactions. With this asset market segmentation assumption, the effects of temporary programs on welfare may change drastically. Households with access to the bonds market are able to protect themselves better from the changes in the inflation rate – although at the cost of a distortion in their consumption path. As a consequence, they may decrease their inflation tax burden – which would increase for the other group of households. By the other side, when these agents that lack the access to the asset markets are credit constrained, they may welcome the program, since the government Is temporally reducing the inflation tax they have to pay. The temporary program could end up benefiting both groups, what could help to understand their popularity.

Adições à proposta do modelo SUSEP de risco de mercado

Seguindo a tendência mundial de um melhor gerenciamento de riscos, o regulador do mercado de seguros brasileiro, após a implementação dos demais riscos, está em fase avançada de desenvolvimento de seu modelo para aferir o risco de mercado das seguradoras. Uma vez que as discussões cessem, as empresas serão forçadas a usar um modelo que, hoje, apresenta muitas falhas, gerando uma demanda de capital adicional de seus acionistas que pode levar algumas delas ao estado de insolvência. O principal objetivo deste estudo é analisar a adequação do modelo e subsidiar a discussão a fim de aperfeiçoar o modelo final, com análises comparativas com outros modelos no país e no mundo, estudo de cenários e visões do mercado. De modo geral, as análises feitas revelam problemas sérios no modelo, como necessidade de aporte de capital em empresas extremamente lucrativas e insuficiência de garantia de segurança pelo uso puro dos fatores de choque em detrimento a uma análise estocástica. Finalmente, são sugeridas algumas soluções para minimizar o efeito da inadequação do modelo e ainda algumas sugestões para melhoria do mesmo, de forma que os acionistas não sejam prejudicados, o regulador consiga administrar adequadamente os riscos e a sociedade seja beneficiada pela solidez das companhias em quem confiou seus riscos.

Determinantes de intervenção do Banco Central do Brasil no mercado de câmbio: uma abordagem empírica por regressão logística e redes neurais

Em economias com regimes de metas de inflação é comum que Bancos Centrais intervenham para reduzir os níveis de volatilidade do dólar, sendo estas intervenções mais comuns em países não desenvolvidos. No caso do Brasil, estas intervenções acontecem diretamente no mercado à vista, via mercado de derivativos (através de swaps cambiais) ou ainda com operações a termo, linhas de liquidez e via empréstimos. Neste trabalho mantemos o foco nas intervenções no mercado à vista e de derivativos pois estas representam o maior volume financeiro relacionado à este tipo de atuação oficial. Existem diversos trabalhos que avaliam o impacto das intervenções e seus graus de sucesso ou fracasso mas relativamente poucos que abordam o que levaria o Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) a intervir no mercado. Tentamos preencher esta lacuna avaliando as variáveis que podem se relacionar às intervenções do BCB no mercado de câmbio e adicionalmente verificando se essas variáveis se relacionam diferentemente com as intervenções de venda e compra de dólares. Para tal, além de utilizarmos regressões logísticas, como na maioria dos trabalhos sobre o tema, empregamos também a técnica de redes neurais, até onde sabemos inédita para o assunto. O período de estudo vai de 2005 a 2012, onde o BCB interveio no mercado de câmbio sob demanda e não de forma continuada por longos períodos de tempo, como nos anos mais recentes. Os resultados indicam que algumas variáveis são mais relevantes para o processo de intervenção vendendo ou comprando dólares, com destaque para a volatilidade implícita do câmbio nas intervenções que envolvem venda de dólares, resultado este alinhado com outros trabalhos sobre o tema.

The analysis of foreign market entry strategies on the basis of different cultural backgrounds and environments: a qualitative study characterising the differences and similarities of Brazilian and European firms

Moving into a new and foreign market can be challenging, especially when such market has a different culture and working environment in comparison to the home market. Thus, it is of utter importance to adjust a company’s strategy to the new market conditions. Currently, there are no concrete guidelines of what aspects are most important when moving from a developing market such as Brazil into a more sophisticated market like Europe, or vice versa. The present study will examine two companies from the same industry, but with different cultural backgrounds and its strategic similarities and differences for operating in multiple international markets. The data was collected via semi-structured interviews with the Chief Executive Officers (CEOs’) from both companies, using an interview guideline that is based on three different theoretical frameworks. The aim is to give recommendations to these two industries of how to efficiently use existing theoretical frameworks and which aspects are most significant when moving into a new market while keeping in mind a company’s size and background.

Indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil: um modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores para o triênio 2016 – 2018

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estimar a demanda de tratores agrícolas para o mercado brasileiro no triênio 2016-2018, utilizando-se para isto de técnicas de econometria de séries temporais, neste caso, modelos univariados da classe ARIMA e SARIMA e ou multivariados SARIMAX. Justifica-se esta pesquisa quando se observa a indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil, dados os ciclos econômicos e outros fatores exógenos aos fundamentos econômicos da demanda, onde esta enfrenta muitos desafios. Dentre estes, a estimação de demanda se destaca, pois exerce forte impacto, por exemplo, no planejamento e custo de produção de curto e médio prazo, níveis de inventários, na relação com fornecedores de materiais e de mão de obra local, e por consequência na geração de valor para o acionista. Durante a fase de revisão bibliográfica foram encontrados vários trabalhos científicos que abordam o agronegócio e suas diversas áreas de atuação, porém, não foram encontrados trabalhos científicos publicados no Brasil que abordassem a previsão da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil, o que serviu de motivação para agregar conhecimento à academia e valor ao mercado através deste. Concluiu-se, após testes realizados com diversos modelos que estão dispostos no texto e apêndices, que o modelo univariado SARIMA (15,1,1) (1,1,1) cumpriu as premissas estabelecidas nos objetivos específicos para escolha do modelo que melhor se ajusta aos dados, e foi escolhido então, como o modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil. Os resultados desta pesquisa apontam para uma demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil oscilando entre 46.000 e 49.000 unidades ano entre os anos de 2016 e 2018.

Avaliação do impacto da lei de aviso recebimento sobre o mercado de crédito

No Brasil, diversos bureaux de crédito têm o papel de proporcionar a troca de informações de inadimplência dos consumidores para o mercado financeiro. Tal troca beneficia o mercado no sentido de reduzir a assimetria de informação entre tomadores de empréstimo e instituições financeiras. Recentemente as leis 15.659/15 e 10.272/15 de dois estados brasileiros passaram a proteger o consumidor no sentido de impedir inclusão de informação negativa dos mesmos em bureaux caso desconhecessem suas dívidas. O consumidor poderia apropriar-se de seus benefícios para deixar de honrar suas dívidas e consequentemente o mercado poderia sofrer uma retração no crédito. Diante disso, este trabalho propõe desenvolver uma estratégia empírica para verificar se há aumento de seleção adversa e risco moral para os estados em que a lei foi aplicada. Concluímos que o efeito tem sinal consistente com o esperado no sentido de aumento de inadimplência, mas não apresentou significância estatística.

Gestão da cadeia de suprimento e vantagem competitiva: uma análise em setores industriais a partir da visão relacional

This work has as its main purpose to investigate the contribution of supply chain management in order to obtain competitive advantage by companies from the textile industry and from Ceará footwear industry, focusing its analysis mainly in the interorganizational relations (dyadic). For this, the theoretical referential contemplates different explanatory streams of the competitive advantage, detaching the relational perception of the resources theory, as well as, the main presuppositions of the supply chain management which culminates with the development of an analysis sample that runs the empirical study; the one which considers an expanded purpose of the supply chain which includes the government and the abetment institutions as institutional environment representatives. Besides supply chain management consideration as a competitive advantage source, the work also tried to identify other possible competitive advantage sources for the companies of the investigated sectors. It represents a study of multiple interpretive cases, having four cases as a total; meaning two cases in each one of the sectors, which used as a primary data collecting instrument a semi-structured interview schedule. Different methods were used for the data analysis, the content analysis and the constant comparison methods, the analytical procedure originated from the grounded theory research strategy, which were applied the Atlas/ti software recourse. Considering the theoretical referential and the used analysis sample, four basic categories of the work were defined, including its respective proprieties and dimensions: (1) characteristics concerning to the relationship with the supplier; (2) the company relations with the government; (3) the company relations with the abetment institutions and; (4) obtaining sources of competitive advantage. In general, the applied research in the footwear sector revealed that in the relationships of the researched companies related to its suppliers, there is a predominance of the partnership system and the main presuppositions of the supply chain management are applied which contributes for the acquisition of the relational competitive advantage; while in the textile sector, only some of these presuppositions are applied, with little contribution for the relational competitive advantage. The main resource which was accessed by the companies in both sectors through its relationships with the government and the abetment institutions are the tax incentives which, for the footwear companies, contribute for the acquisition of the temporary competitive advantage in relation to the contestants who do not own productive installations in the Northeast region, it also conducts to a competitive parity situation in relation to the contestants who own productive installations in the Northeast region and to the external market contestants; while for the companies of the textile sector, the tax incentives run the companies to a competitive parity situation in relation to its contestants. Furthermore, the investigated companies from the two sectors possess acquisition sources of the competitive advantage which collimate with different explanatory streams (industrial analysis, resources theory, Austrian school and the dynamic capabilities theory), although there is a predominance of the product innovation as a competitive advantage source in both sectors, due to the bond of these with the fashion tendencies

Tributos indiretos na cadeia produtiva do camarão

The state of Rio Grande do Norte counts with a relevant potential in the shrimp farming supply chain. In the larviculture step the state responds for more than half of the national production. In the farming step it is the second largest producer. In the industrial step, its industries have almost 40% of the shrimp processing capacity of the northeast of Brazil. However, this country has the highest tax rate comparing with the main shrimp producer countries. Considering the influence of taxes in the competition among companies, the main goal of this research is to analyze the impact of indirect taxes in the above steps of the supply chain. To achieve it, it will be used the data of the 2011 Census of the Shrimp Farming and it will be applied the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to identify the market form of those steps. In order to contribute with the characterization of the supply chain, CEO´s of farms and industries will be interviewed. The price-elasticity of the shrimp larvae, the in natura shrimp and the processed shrimp will be analyzed in order to verify the possibility that each one of those three steps has to pass-through the onus of the end of benefit over the ICMS. The data analysis shows that the larviculture step functions as a duopoly and, facing the end of that benefit, it will be able to pass-through most its onus to the farming step. On the other hand, this step functions similar to a perfect competing market, which diminishes its capacity to pass-through that onus to the processing step. This step operates as oligopoly with a lower concentration than the larviculture step but, due to the fact that it faces an oligopsony, it will end up assuming most of that onus, which will cause a decrease in the amount of processed shrimp. It is concluded that the end of that benefit would impact negatively, in this state, the supply chain at all, but mainly the farming and the industrial steps

A fragilidade e suas representações para idosos domiciliados no contexto da estratégia de Saúde da Família

This study aims to analyze social representations of elders to their fragile situation at home, with the presence of one or more characteristics, as defined by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. It is a descriptive and qualitative study, based on methodological -principles of the Theory of Social Representations. Setting was the homes of elderly residents in the area ascribed to a Family Health Unit (FHU) in the city of Natal. A total of 10 elderly subjects, whose choice was intentional and according to the need for USF home visit in a period of time, considering the saturation process of the information. As collection procedures were used the semi-structured interview and participant observation in accordance with the ethical rules of Resolution No. 196/96, with the assent of the Ethics and Research UFRN. To analyze the results, it was used the thematic content analysis in the aspect of preparation of representations, focusing on the totality of the discourse of the subjects. The results indicate that most study participants felt difficult to give meaning to the terms weakness and to be weak, although many present one or more aspects of the syndrome of frailty. From the content analysis of participants speeches in this study, we achieved the following categories: fragility as illness and disease as aging, aging and frailty as causes of changes and difficulties in daily life, the presence of family life in the fragile elderly, fragility as weakness and the risk for falls, the perception of being weak like a different person in addition to the absence of fragility in elderly life. Thus, through the processes of anchoring and objectification, the "fragile being" became familiar and concrete, showing that the meaning of weakness, besides the scientific definition found in the reified universes, can be reinterpreted and built within the consensus universes. About the care received by the staff of Family Health, from the viewpoint of older people there seems to be an understanding about the role of professional nurses; on the other hand, older people often mention the role of the Community Health Agent

Water balance in goats subjected to feed restriction

The effect of feed restriction on water balance and nutrient utilization was investigated in individually penned Boer x Saanen kids. Twenty-two male Boer x Saanen kids with an initial average live weight (LW) of 15 kg were used. Seven kids were slaughtered at the beginning of the experiment (reference animals) and the remainders were allocated to one of the three treatments (0, 30 and 60% restriction) and therefore there were five kids per treatment. The feed intake for the 0% restriction treatment animals determined the intake for the animals in the 30 and 60% restriction treatment. When the animals in the 0% restriction treatment group reached 25 kg LW, the animals in the 30 and 60% restriction treatment groups were also slaughtered. There was a negative relationship between DMI and water intake. The digestibility coefficients for DM, OM, carbohydrates, ash, ether extract, energy, NDF, ADF and lignin did not differ between treatments, whereas the digestibility coefficient for CP was different between treatment groups. The highest metabolic water production was in animals in the 0% restriction treatment group. No significant differences were observed in the composition of gastro-intestinal tract contents of the goats in the different treatments. Lower water retention was found in the animals in the 60% restriction treatment group. The study showed that feed restriction affected water intake, CP digestibility and water retention in the body of the kid goats. This experiment demonstrated that DM:water intake ratio changed when severe feed restriction was applied (60% restriction) and water was freely available. It shows a different pattern of behaviour of penned goats, particularly if feed intake is restricted and perhaps caution is needed to extrapolate results from nutritional and physiological trials in pens to goats at pasture. (c) 2005 Elsevier BX All rights reserved.

Gestão ambiental e competitividade: um estudo sobre os fatores que afetam a decisão de compra de produtos orgânicos na cidade de Teresina-PI

The organic products represent one of the main trends of alimentary consumption in the new century. In Brazil, the answer is already well representative which it becomes the country, as a great consuming and exporting market of products of LVF type. The objective of this research was to investigate the factors capable to influence the food consumer in its purchase decision of organic products in the supermarkets of Teresina, capital of Piauí State. The methodology was exploratory and descriptive, using survey, with closed and opened questions in 542 interviewed. The questionnaire was based on projected scales to evaluate the factors that can influence the purchase decision of organic products, whose variable had been grouped in the following groups: behavior, knowledge, interest, competitiveness, importance, barrier and profile. The used statistical techniques were descriptive analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results demonstrate interest of the population in paying more for the organic product, due to better quality of life, however it lacks to one better spreading and greater sensitization to attract these consumers. Some recommendations and proposals are presented after the results, as suggestions for future research

Identification of a gene encoding adaptin-like protein in the Paracoccidioides brasiliensis genome by random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis

Paracoccidioides brasiliensis isolates are not homogeneous in their patterns of pathogenicity in animals and adhesion to epithelial cells. During this investigation, genotypic differences were observed between two samples of P. brasiliensis strain 18 yeast phase (Pbl 8) previously cultured many times, one taken before (Pb18a) and the other after (Pb18b) animal inoculation. Random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis using the primer OPJ4 distinguished Pb18b from Pbl Ba by one 308 bp DNA fragment, which after cloning and sequencing was shown to encode a polypeptide sequence homologous to the protein beta-adaptin. It is suggested, by comparison to other micro-organisms, that this protein might play an important role in the virulence of P. brasiliensis. This result demonstrates the influence of in vitro subculturing on the genotype of this organism.

Fractais e percolação na recuperação de Petróleo

The complex behavior of a wide variety of phenomena that are of interest to physicists, chemists, and engineers has been quantitatively characterized by using the ideas of fractal and multifractal distributions, which correspond in a unique way to the geometrical shape and dynamical properties of the systems under study. In this thesis we present the Space of Fractals and the methods of Hausdorff-Besicovitch, box-counting and Scaling to calculate the fractal dimension of a set. In this Thesis we investigate also percolation phenomena in multifractal objects that are built in a simple way. The central object of our analysis is a multifractal object that we call Qmf . In these objects the multifractality comes directly from the geometric tiling. We identify some differences between percolation in the proposed multifractals and in a regular lattice. There are basically two sources of these differences. The first is related to the coordination number, c, which changes along the multifractal. The second comes from the way the weight of each cell in the multifractal affects the percolation cluster. We use many samples of finite size lattices and draw the histogram of percolating lattices against site occupation probability p. Depending on a parameter, ρ, characterizing the multifractal and the lattice size, L, the histogram can have two peaks. We observe that the probability of occupation at the percolation threshold, pc, for the multifractal is lower than that for the square lattice. We compute the fractal dimension of the percolating cluster and the critical exponent β. Despite the topological differences, we find that the percolation in a multifractal support is in the same universality class as standard percolation. The area and the number of neighbors of the blocks of Qmf show a non-trivial behavior. A general view of the object Qmf shows an anisotropy. The value of pc is a function of ρ which is related to its anisotropy. We investigate the relation between pc and the average number of neighbors of the blocks as well as the anisotropy of Qmf. In this Thesis we study likewise the distribution of shortest paths in percolation systems at the percolation threshold in two dimensions (2D). We study paths from one given point to multiple other points. In oil recovery terminology, the given single point can be mapped to an injection well (injector) and the multiple other points to production wells (producers). In the previously standard case of one injection well and one production well separated by Euclidean distance r, the distribution of shortest paths l, P(l|r), shows a power-law behavior with exponent gl = 2.14 in 2D. Here we analyze the situation of one injector and an array A of producers. Symmetric arrays of producers lead to one peak in the distribution P(l|A), the probability that the shortest path between the injector and any of the producers is l, while the asymmetric configurations lead to several peaks in the distribution. We analyze configurations in which the injector is outside and inside the set of producers. The peak in P(l|A) for the symmetric arrays decays faster than for the standard case. For very long paths all the studied arrays exhibit a power-law behavior with exponent g ∼= gl.