Predictive Validity of Waterlow Scale for Pressure Ulcer Development Risk in Hospitalized Patients

AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

Risk factors for neonatal transfers from the Sapopemba free-standing birth centre to a hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between nutritional status and blood pressure in schoolchildren

The aim of this study was to analyze the association between nutritional status and blood pressure in adolescents from a private school. Were recruited 316 young of both gender with age raging from 11 to 15 years old. Were measured body mass, stature, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. The statistic procedures were composed by median, interquartile range, chi-square test and Poisson regression. The prevalence of overweight and high blood pressure was significantly higher in boys (38% and 24%, respectively) when compared to girls (19.3% and 14.4%, respectively). Overweight adolescents presented a higher risk (about 2-fold) to develop high blood pressure. In conclusion, overweight seems to be associate with high blood pressure in adolescents.

Impact of Childhood Cancer on Parents` Relationships: An Integrative Review

Purpose: The diagnosis of cancer and the treatment decisions associated with it may cause uncertainty, stress, and anxiety among parents. Emotional tensions can affect parents` relationships during the trajectory of the child`s cancer illness. We conducted an integrative review to examine the evidence related to the effects of childhood cancer on parents` relationships. Methods: An integrative literature search of studies published between 1997 and 2009 was conducted in the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Psychology Information (PsycINFO), PubMed, Scopus, CUIDEN, and Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature (LILACS). The key words used were neoplasms, child, marriage, spouses, family relations, and nursing. Articles were reviewed if the (a) topic addressed parents` relationships during childhood cancer; (b) participants were mothers, fathers, or both; (c) design was either qualitative or quantitative; (d) language was English, Portuguese, or Spanish; (e) date of publication was between January 1997 and October 2009; and (f) abstract was available. Results: Fourteen articles met the search criteria and were reviewed using Cooper`s framework for integrative reviews. Four themes emerged: (a) changes in the parents` relationship during the trajectory of the child`s illness; (b) difficulty in communication between couples; (c) gender differences in parental stress and coping; and (d) role changes. Conclusions and Implications: Findings revealed positive and negative changes in parents` relationships, communication, stress, and roles. Nurses need to assess the impact of cancer diagnosis and treatments on parent relationships, offer support and encouragement, and allow expression of feelings. Future research is needed to develop and test interventions that increase parents` potentials and strengthen relationships during the challenging trajectory of their children`s cancer and treatment. Clinical Relevance: The multiple sources of stress and uncertainty associated with a child`s cancer diagnosis and treatment affect parents` relationships. Difficulties in communication appear frequently in parents` relationship. Our findings may guide healthcare professionals in identifying parents at risk for developing conflicts, communication problems, and lack of alignment between parents that could interfere with providing optimal care for their child with cancer. Healthcare professionals may promote dialogue and encourage parents to express their feelings, seek mutual support, and establish a partnership in dealing with the child`s illness.

Altered left ventricular diastolic function in subjects with spinal cord injury

Study design: This is cross-sectional study. Objectives: The aim of this study is to investigate the cardiac structure and function of subjects with spinal cord injury (SCI) and the impact of metabolic, hemodynamic and inflammatory factors on these parameters. Setting: Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Sixty-five nondiabetic, nonhypertensive, sedentary, nonsmoker men (34 with SCI and 31 healthy subjects) were evaluated by medical history, anthropometry, laboratory tests, analysis of hemodynamic and inflammatory parameters and echocardiography. Results: Subjects with SCI had lower systolic blood pressure and higher levels of C-reactive protein and tumor necrosis factor receptors than the healthy ones. Echocardiography data showed that the SCI group presented similar left ventricular (LV) structural and systolic parameters, but lower initial diastolic velocity (Em) (9.2 +/- 0.5 vs 12.3 +/- 0.5 cm s(-1); P<0.001) and higher peak early inflow velocity (E)/Em ratio (7.7 +/- 0.5 vs 6.1 +/- 0.3; P = 0.009) compared with the able-bodied group, even after adjustment for systolic blood pressure and C-reactive protein levels. Furthermore, injured subjects with E/Em >8 had lower peak spectral longitudinal contraction (Sm) (9.0 +/- 0.7 vs 11.6 +/- 0.4cm s(-1); P<0.001) and cardiac output (4.2 +/- 0.2 vs 5.0 +/- 0.21 min(-1); P = 0.029), as well as higher relative wall thickness (0.38 +/- 0.01 vs 0.35 +/- 0.01; P = 0.005), than individuals with SCI with E/Em<8, but similar age, body mass index, blood pressure, injury level, metabolic parameters and inflammatory marker levels. Conclusion: Subjects with SCI presented impaired LV diastolic function in comparison with able-bodied ones. Moreover, worse LV diastolic function was associated with a pattern of LV concentric remodeling and subclinical decreases in systolic function among injured subjects. Overall, these findings might contribute to explain the increased cardiovascular risk reported for individuals with SCI. Spinal Cord (2011) 49, 65-69; doi: 10.1038/sc.2010.88; published online 27 July 2010

Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

A Power-Quality Index to Assess the Impact of Voltage Harmonic Distortions and Unbalance to Three-Phase Induction Motors

This paper discusses the need to simultaneously monitor voltage unbalance and harmonic distortions in addition to root-mean-square voltage values. An alternative way to obtain the parameters related to voltage unbalance at fundamental frequency as well as voltage harmonic distortions is here proposed, which is based on the representation of instantaneous values at the axes and at the instantaneous Euclidean norm. A new power-quality (PQ) index is then proposed to combine the effects of voltage unbalance and harmonic distortions. This new index is easily implemented into existing electronic power meters. This PQ index is determined from the analysis of temperature rise in induction motor windings, which were tested for long periods of time. This paper also shows that these voltage disturbances, which are harmful to the lifetime expectancy of motors, can be measured by alternative ways in relation to conventional methods. Although this paper deals with induction motors only, the results show the relevance for further studies on other pieces of equipment.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

The potential for increasing rubber production by matching tapping intensity to leaf area index

Understanding resource capture can help design appropriate species combinations, planting designs and management. Leaf area index (LAI) and its longevity are the most important factors defining dry matter production and thus growth and productivity. The ecophysiological modifications and yield of rubber (Hevea spp.) in an agroforestry system (AFS) with beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) were studied. The experiment was established in Southeast-Brazil, with three rubber cultivars: IAN 3087, RRIM 600 and RRIM 527. The AFS comprised double rows of rubber trees along with beans sown in autumn and winter seasons in 1999. There was about 50% higher rubber yield per tree in the AFS than the rubber monoculture. Trees within the AFS responded to higher solar radiation availability with higher LAI and total foliage area, allowing its greater interception. All three cultivars had higher LAI in the AFS than monoculture, reaching maximum values in the AFS between April and May of 3.17 for RRIM 527; 2.83 for RRIM 600 and 2.28 for IAN 3087. The maximum LAI values for monocrop rubber trees were: 2.65, 2.62 and 1.99, respectively, for each cultivar. Rubber production and LAI were positively correlated in both the AFS and monoculture but leaf fall of rubber trees in the AFS was delayed and total phytomass was larger. It is suggested that trees in the AFS were under exploited and could yield more without compromising their life cycle if the tapping system was intensified. This shows how knowledge of LAI can be used to manage tapping intensity in the field, leading to higher rubber yield.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.