996 resultados para International prices
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This paper uses the ability to recall one s age correctly as an indicator of numeracy.We show that low levels of nutrition impaired numeracy in industrializing England, 1780-1850.Numeracy declined markedly among those born during the war years, especially where wheatwas dear. England s nascent welfare state mitigated the negative effect of high food prices oncognitive skills. Nutrition during early development mattered for labor market outcomes:individuals born in periods or countries with high age heaping were more likely to sort intooccupations with limited intellectual requirements.
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This article tries to reconcile economic-industrial policy with health policy when dealing with biomedical innovation and welfare state sustainability. Better health accounts for an increasingly large proportion of welfare improvements. Explanation is given to the welfare losses coming from the fact than industrial and health policy tend to ignore each other. Drug s prices reflecting their relative relative effectiveness send the right signal to the industry rewarding innovation with impact on quantity and quality of life- and to the buyers of health care services.The level of drug s public reimbursement indicates the social willingness to pay of the different national health systems, not only by means of inclusion, or rejection, in the basket of services covered, but especially establishing the proportion of the price that is going to be financed publicly.Reference pricing for therapeutic equivalents as the upper limit of the social willingness to pay- and two-tiered co-payments for users (avoidable and inversely related with the incremental effectiveness of de drug) are deemed appropriate for those countries concerned at the same time with increasing their productivity and maintaining its welfare state. Profits drive R&D but not its location. There is no intrinsic contradiction between high productivity and a consolidated National Health Service (welfare state) as the European Nordic Countries are telling us every day.
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A number of existing studies have concluded that risk sharing allocations supported by competitive, incomplete markets equilibria are quantitatively close to first-best. Equilibrium asset prices in these models have been difficult to distinguish from those associated with a complete markets model, the counterfactual features of which have been widely documented. This paper asks if life cycle considerations, in conjunction with persistent idiosyncratic shocks which become more volatile during aggregate downturns, can reconcile the quantitative properties of the competitive asset pricing framework with those of observed asset returns. We begin by arguing that data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics support the plausibility of such a shock process. Our estimates suggest a high degree of persistence as well as a substantial increase in idiosyncratic conditional volatility coincident with periods of low growth in U.S. GNP. When these factors are incorporated in a stationary overlapping generations framework, the implications for the returns on risky assets are substantial. Plausible parameterizations of our economy are able to generate Sharpe ratios which match those observed in U.S. data. Our economy cannot, however, account for the level of variability of stock returns, owing in large part to the specification of its production technology.
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We analyze the impact of different types of international conventions thatrequire signatory countries to penalize domestic firms that are found tohave bribed foreign public officials. We analyze enforcement of penaltiesunder a convention styled after the OECD's 'Convention on Combating Briberyof Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions', in whichsignatory countries commit to prosecuting firms that have bribed publicofficials of any foreign country. We compare the results with the case inwhich the convention requires signatory countries to commit to prosecutingfirms that have bribed public officials of signatory countries only.We argue that the second type of convention is more likely to ensureenforcement of penalties on firms found to have bribed foreign publicofficials.
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We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.
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The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.
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Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.
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We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.
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One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countriesis through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors risk aversion affect portfolio allocation decisions and stock prices. Our empirical findings suggest that when funds returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In so doing, funds tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were overweight , increasing their exposure to countries in which they were underweight. Based on this insight, the paper constructs an index of financial interdependence which reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. The index helps in explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries. Moreover, a comparison of this interdependence measure to indices of trade or commercial bank linkages indicates that our index can improve predictions about which countries are more likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.
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BACKGROUND: The International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) conducted two complementary randomized trials to assess whether a treatment-free gap during adjuvant chemotherapy influenced outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From 1993 to 1999, IBCSG Trials 13-93 and 14-93 enrolled 2215 premenopausal and postmenopausal women with axillary node-positive, operable breast cancer. All patients received cyclophosphamide (Cytoxan, C) plus either doxorubicin (Adriamycin, A) or epirubicin (E) for four courses followed immediately (No Gap) or after a 16-week delay (Gap) by classical cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) for three courses. The median follow-up was 7.7 years. RESULTS: The Gap and No-Gap groups had similar disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). No identified subgroup showed a statistically significant difference, but exploratory subgroup analysis noted a trend towards decreased DFS for Gap compared with No Gap for women with estrogen receptor (ER)-negative tumors not receiving tamoxifen, especially evident during the first 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: A 16-week gap between adjuvant AC/EC and CMF provided no benefit and may have increased early recurrence rates in patients with ER-negative tumors.
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This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.
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Se presentan los primeros resultados del programa de investigación comparativo sobre las tres flotas pesqueras dedicadas a la extracción de anchoveta en el mar peruano (industrial de acero, industrial de madera y artesanal), así como sus cadenas de suministro hasta el abastecimiento del consumidor. El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo estudiar la sostenibilidad de las actividades involucradas en el suministro de proteínas, considerándose los impactos ambientales y los aspectos socio-económicos. Se realizó un esquema simple de un ecosistema pelágico de afloramiento y de los principales flujos de materia y energía, producto de la explotación humana. El esquema representa la situación peruana y muestra el alto nivel de antropización del sistema, debido al uso de energías fósiles, así como a la explotación y transformación tecnológica de recursos naturales terrestres (minerales, madera, etc.). Por otro lado, se muestra que la explotación del ecosistema marino peruano tiene repercusiones sobre el resto del planeta, debido a la exportación de harina y aceite de pescado destinados principalmente a actividades acuícolas. La flota anchovetera peruana se caracteriza por un amplio rango de tamaño de embarcaciones (de 2 a 600 t de capacidad de bodega); las de tamaño intermedio (30-100 t) son las más numerosas, pero las más grandes (>300 t) son las que acumulan el mayor poder de pesca. Los análisis sobre precios y distribución de la renta entre tripulantes y armadores muestran que, a pesar de que la mayor pesca de anchoveta es realizada por la flota industrial de acero, dedicada a la producción de harina y aceite de pescado y que tiene mayor eficiencia de captura por tripulante, la contribución de la pesca industrial de madera es significativa, pues genera mayor empleo por tonelada capturada y, posiblemente, no ocasiona mayor uso de energía. La pesca artesanal de anchoveta es la menos eficiente energéticamente y por tripulante, pero genera mucho más empleo por tonelada capturada; esta pesca representa menos del 3% de la producción total, del cual sólo una fracción va al consumo humano directo (CHD). Desde el año 2000, los precios de harina y aceite de pescado en los mercados internacionales se han incrementado, debido al aumento de la demanda asiática y al precio del combustible. Se debe estudiar en qué medida este aumento desfavorece el consumo interno de estos productos, así como el uso de anchoveta para CHD. Este análisis deberá ser validado y complementado con información de impacto ambiental; y podrían contribuir a la toma de decisión participativa, para un balance óptimo entre los tres segmentos de la flota y las cadenas de producción asociadas.
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We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.
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I discuss several lessons regarding the design and conduct of monetary policy that have emerged out of the New Keynesian research program. Those lessons include the bene.ts of price stability, the gains from commitment about future policies, the importance of nat-ural variables as benchmarks for policy, and the bene.ts of a credible anti-inflationary stance. I also point to one challenge facing NK modelling efforts: the need to come up with relevant sources of policy tradeoffs. A potentially useful approach to meeting that challenge, based on the introduction of real imperfections, is presented.
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Recent evidence suggests that consumption rises in response to an increase in government spending. That finding cannot be easily reconciled with existing optimizing business cycle models. We extend the standard new Keynesian model to allow for the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers. We show how the interaction of the latter with sticky prices and deficit financing can account for the existing evidence on the effects of government spending.