Optimal strategies for marine wildlife tourism in small islands

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais (especialidade de Economia), 18 de Junho de 2015, Universidade dos Açores

A eficácia dos modelos de previsão de falência: aplicação ao caso das sociedades portuguesas

Mestrado em Controlo e Gestão e dos Negócios

Soil remediation time to achieve clean-up goals I: influence of soil water content

The current models are not simple enough to allow a quick estimation of the remediation time. This work reports the development of an easy and relatively rapid procedure for the forecasting of the remediation time using vapour extraction. Sandy soils contaminated with cyclohexane and prepared with different water contents were studied. The remediation times estimated through the mathematical fitting of experimental results were compared with those of real soils. The main objectives were: (i) to predict, through a simple mathematical fitting, the remediation time of soils with water contents different from those used in the experiments; (ii) to analyse the influence of soil water content on the: (ii1) remediation time; (ii2) remediation efficiency; and (ii3) distribution of contaminants in the different phases present into the soil matrix after the remediation process. For sandy soils with negligible contents of clay and natural organic matter, artificially contaminated with cyclohexane before vapour extraction, it was concluded that (i) if the soil water content belonged to the range considered in the experiments with the prepared soils, then the remediation time of real soils of similar characteristics could be successfully predicted, with relative differences not higher than 10%, through a simple mathematical fitting of experimental results; (ii) increasing soil water content from 0% to 6% had the following consequences: (ii1) increased remediation time (1.8–4.9 h, respectively); (ii2) decreased remediation efficiency (99–97%, respectively); and (ii3) decreased the amount of contaminant adsorbed onto the soil and in the non-aqueous liquid phase, thus increasing the amount of contaminant in the aqueous and gaseous phases.

Soil remediation time to achieve clean-up goals II: influence of natural organic matter and water contents

This work reports a relatively rapid procedure for the forecasting of the remediation time (RT) of sandy soils contaminated with cyclohexane using vapour extraction. The RT estimated through the mathematical fitting of experimental results was compared with that of real soils. The main objectives were: (i) to predict the RT of soils with natural organic matter (NOM) and water contents different from those used in experiments; and (ii) to analyse the time and efficiency of remediation, and the distribution of contaminants into the soil matrix after the remediation process, according to the soil contents of: (ii1) NOM; and (ii2) water. For sandy soils with negligible clay contents, artificially contaminated with cyclohexane before vapour extraction, it was concluded that: (i) if the NOM and water contents belonged to the range of the prepared soils, the RT of real soils could be predicted with relative differences not higher than 12%; (ii1) the increase of NOM content from 0% to 7.5% increased the RT (1.8–13 h) and decreased the remediation efficiency (RE) (99–90%) and (ii2) the increase of soil water content from 0% to 6% increased the RT (1.8–4.9 h) and decreased the RE (99–97%). NOM increases the monolayer capacity leading to a higher sorption into the solid phase. Increasing of soil water content reduces the mass transfer coefficient between phases. Concluding, NOM and water contents influence negatively the remediation process, turning it less efficient and more time consuming, and consequently more expensive.

Previsão de desempenho para redes móveis LTE e UMTS baseadas em redes GSM co-localizadas

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrónica e Telecomunicações

Previsão de curto prazo do consumo de energia elétrica

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica - Ramo de Energia

Water quality in lakes and reservoirs in China

Dissertation elaborated for the partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Master Degree in Civil Engineering in the Speciality Area of Hydarulics

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Caracterização hidráulica, hidrológica e do transporte sólido das principais linhas de água (ribeiras) do concelho de Câmara de Lobos: ilha da Madeira

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Hidráulica

Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime

The contribution of the evapotranspiration from a certain region to the precipitation over the same area is referred to as water recycling. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal links between the recycling mechanism and the Iberian rainfall regime. We use a 9 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of 18 years (1990-2007) to compute local and regional recycling ratios over Iberia, at the monthly scale, through both an analytical and a numerical recycling model. In contrast to coastal areas, the interior of Iberia experiences a relative maximum of precipitation in spring, suggesting a prominent role of land-atmosphere interactions on the inland precipitation regime during this period of the year. Local recycling ratios are the highest in spring and early summer, coinciding with those areas where this spring peak of rainfall represents the absolute maximum in the annual cycle. This confirms that recycling processes are crucial to explain the Iberian spring precipitation, particularly over the eastern and northeastern sectors. Average monthly recycling values range from 0.04 in December to 0.14 in June according to the numerical model and from 0.03 in December to 0.07 in May according to the analytical procedure. Our analysis shows that the highest values of recycling are limited by the coexistence of two necessary mechanisms: (1) the availability of sufficient soil moisture and (2) the occurrence of appropriate synoptic configurations favoring the development of convective regimes. The analyzed surplus of rainfall in spring has a critical impact on agriculture over large semiarid regions of the interior of Iberia.

Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques

Wind resource evaluation in two sites located in Portugal was performed using the mesoscale modelling system Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the wind resource analysis tool commonly used within the wind power industry, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) microscale model. Wind measurement campaigns were conducted in the selected sites, allowing for a comparison between in situ measurements and simulated wind, in terms of flow characteristics and energy yields estimates. Three different methodologies were tested, aiming to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of these methodologies for wind resource estimation. In the first methodology the mesoscale model acts like “virtual” wind measuring stations, where wind data was computed by WRF for both sites and inserted directly as input in WAsP. In the second approach, the same procedure was followed but here the terrain influences induced by the mesoscale model low resolution terrain data were removed from the simulated wind data. In the third methodology, the simulated wind data is extracted at the top of the planetary boundary layer height for both sites, aiming to assess if the use of geostrophic winds (which, by definition, are not influenced by the local terrain) can bring any improvement in the models performance. The obtained results for the abovementioned methodologies were compared with those resulting from in situ measurements, in terms of mean wind speed, Weibull probability density function parameters and production estimates, considering the installation of one wind turbine in each site. Results showed that the second tested approach is the one that produces values closest to the measured ones, and fairly acceptable deviations were found using this coupling technique in terms of estimated annual production. However, mesoscale output should not be used directly in wind farm sitting projects, mainly due to the mesoscale model terrain data poor resolution. Instead, the use of mesoscale output in microscale models should be seen as a valid alternative to in situ data mainly for preliminary wind resource assessments, although the application of mesoscale and microscale coupling in areas with complex topography should be done with extreme caution.

Information technology service management: an experimental approach towards IT service prediction

Dissertation presented to obtain a Masters degree in Computer Science

Sistema avançado de previsão de vendas para as lojas Pingo Doce do grupo Jerónimo Martins

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Professora Doutora Patrícia Alexandra Gregório Ramos

Escalonamento de geradores térmicos com integração de produção eólica: uma abordagem baseada em programação inteira mista

A alta e crescente participação da energia eólica na matriz da produção traz grandes desafios aos operadores do sistema na gestão da rede e planeamento da produção. A incerteza associada à produção eólica condiciona os processos de escalonamento e despacho económico dos geradores térmicos, uma vez que a produção eólica efetiva pode ser muito diferente da produção prevista. O presente trabalho propõe duas metodologias de otimização do escalonamento de geradores térmicos baseadas em Programação Inteira Mista. Pretende-se encontrar soluções de escalonamento que minimizem as influências negativas da integração de energia eólica no sistema elétrico. Inicialmente o problema de escalonamento de geradores é formulado sem considerar a integração da energia eólica. Posteriormente foi considerada a penetração da energia eólica no sistema elétrico. No primeiro modelo proposto, o problema é formulado como um problema de otimização estocástico. Nesta formulação todos os cenários de produção eólica são levados em consideração no processo de otimização. No segundo modelo, o problema é formulado como um problema de otimização determinística. Nesta formulação, o escalonamento é feito para cada cenário de produção eólica e no fim determina-se a melhor solução por meio de indicadores de avaliação. Foram feitas simulações para diferentes níveis de reserva girante e os resultados obtidos mostraram que a alta participação da energia eólica na matriz da produção põe em causa a segurança e garantia de produção devido às características volátil e intermitente da produção eólica e para manter os mesmos níveis de segurança é preciso dispor no sistema de capacidade reserva girante suficiente capaz de compensar os erros de previsão.

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.