Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Faculty and Student Perspectives Toward Open Courseware, and Open Access Publishing: Some Comparisons Between European and North American Populations

Instructor and student beliefs, attitudes and intentions toward contributing to local open courseware (OCW) sites have been investigated through campus-wide surveys at Universidad Politecnica de Valencia and the University of Michigan. In addition, at the University of Michigan, faculty have been queried about their participation in open access (OA) publishing. We compare the instructor and student data concerning OCW between the two institutions, and introduce the investigation of open access publishing in relation to open courseware publishing.

Seabirds and the circulation of Lyme borreliosis bacteria in the North Pacific

Seabirds act as natural reservoirs to Lyme borreliosis spirochetes and may play a significant role in the global circulation of these pathogens. While Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bbsl) has been shown to occur in ticks collected from certain locations in the North Pacific, little is known about interspecific differences in exposure within the seabird communities of this region. We examined the prevalence of anti-Bbsl antibodies in 805 individuals of nine seabird species breeding across the North Pacific. Seroprevalence varied strongly among species and locations. Murres (Uria spp.) showed the highest antibody prevalence and may play a major role in facilitating Bbsl circulation at a worldwide scale. Other species showed little or no signs of exposure, despite being present in multispecific colonies with seropositive birds. Complex dynamics may be operating in this wide scale, natural hostparasite system, possibly mediated by the host immune system and host specialization of the tick vector.

Modelling of North-West Russian market behavior considering technical restrictions of transmission grid

Nowadays the Finnish-Russian electric energy interaction is carried out through the back-to-back DC Vyborg substation and several power plants working synchronously with Finnish power system. Constant amount of energy flows in one direction — from Russia to Finland. But the process of electricity market development in Russian energy system makes the new possibilities of electrical cooperation available. The goal of master's thesis is to analyze the current state and possible evolution trends of North-West Russian system in relation with future possible change in power flow between Russia and Finland. The research is done by modelling the market of North-West Russia and examination of technical grid restrictions. The operational market models of North-West region of Russia for the years 2008 and 2015 were created during the research process. The description of prepared market models together with modelling results and their analysis are shown in the work. The description of power flow study process and results are also presented.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe

This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.

Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover.

Feasibility Study and Market Review of Small Scale Bioenergy Heating Plants in North-West Russia

The paper is focused on feasibility study and market review of small scale bioenergy heating plants in the Russian North-West region. The main focus is effective and competitive usage of low-grade wood for heating purposes in the region. As example of economical feasibility estimation it was chosen the project of reconstruction of small scale boiler plant in Leningrad region that Brofta Oy is planning to implement the nearest time. It includes calculation the payback time with and without interest, the estimation of probable investments, the evaluation of possible risks and research on the potential of small scale heating plants projects. Calculations show that the profitability of this kind of projects is high, but payback time is not very short, because of high level of initial investments. Though, the development of small scale bioenergy heating plants in the region is considered to be the best way to solve the problems of heat supply in small settlements using own biomass resources.

Research of wood fuel market in North-West of Russia

The main purposes of this study are analyzing of forest sector of North-West and research of potentials of wood fuel market in this region. Research is focused on definition of the most perspective areas for export of wood fuel: logging residues, industrial wood processing residues, pellets and briquettes. Russian wood energy industry is very young in comparison with European countries. Nowadays there are no support and serious attention from the government to this sector. Hence almost all wood fuel market is oriented to the Western Europe. Export of wood fuel is dominated over the internal consumption. Pellet production in North –West is rapidly growing. Despite internal market has been developed the lion's share of pellets goes to export. Part of industrial wood processing residues is used by producers for their own goals, part goes to the export and rest of them is not used at all. Logging residues as raw materials for fuel have great potentials; most of them are left in a forest. Special techniques for their processing are too expensive for Russian entrepreneur. Some parts of North –West, which are situated close to the border with European countries, are potential for export. Political, economical and logistical challenges are complicated facilities for foreign customer to purchase wood fuel in remote parts of North-West. However some decisions for solving this problem exist and Russian manufactures are still interested in export of their products.

Utilisation of biomass for energy production in the North-West Russian forest industry

Traditionally, fossil fuels have always been the major sources of the modern energy production. However prices on these energy sources have been constantly increasing. The utilization of local biomass resources for energy production can substitute significant part of the required energy demand in different energy sectors. The introduction of the biomass usage can easily be started in the forest industry first as it possesses biomass in a large volume. The forest industry energy sector has the highest potential for the fast bioenergy development in the North-West Russia. Therefore, the question concerning rational and effective forest resources use is important today as well as the utilization of the forestry by-products. This work describes and analyzes the opportunities of utilising biomass, mainly, in the form of the wood by-products, for energy production processes in general, as well as for the northwest Russian forest industry conditions. The study also covers basic forest industry processes and technologies, so, the reader can get familiar with the information about the specific character of the biomass utilization. The work gives a comprehensive view on the northwest forest industry situation from the biomass utilisation point of view. By presenting existing large-scale sawmills and pulp and paper mills the work provides information for the evaluation of the future development of CHP investments in the northwest Russian forest industry.

Genetic diversity and species richness patterns in Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.

Genetic diversity and species richness patterns in Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.

Strategic choices and performance – an empirical analysis of largest European and North American energy companies

Energy industry has gone through major changes globally in past two decades. Liberalization of energy markets has led companies to integrate both vertically and horizontally. Growing concern on sustainable development and aims to decrease greenhouse gases in future will increase the portion of renewable energy in total energy production. Purpose of this study was to analyze using statistical methods, what impacts different strategic choices has on biggest European and North American energy companies’ performance. Results show that vertical integration, horizontal integration and use of renewable energy in production had the most impact on profitability. Increase in level of vertical integration decreased companies’ profitability, while increase in horizontal integration improved companies’ profitability. Companies that used renewable energy in production were less profitable than companies not using renewable energy.

Variation of essential oil composition of Tapirira guianensis Aubl. (Anacardiaceae) from two sandbank forests, north of Brazil

Tapirira guianensis (Anacardiaceae) is used in traditional medicine and is important for the recovery of degraded areas and riparian forests because the T. guianensis fruits are highly consumed by wildlife. Volatile components from dried leaves and branches of five individual plants of T. guianensis were collected in two sandbank forests of the State of Pará (Extractive Reserve Maracanã and Area of Environmental Protection Algodoal/Maiandeua), extracted by hydrodistillation using a Clevenger-type apparatus, and analyzed by GC/MS. The ten oils obtained are comprised mostly of sesquiterpene hydrocarbons (58.49 to 100%), with (E)-caryophyllene, β-selinene, α-selinene, β-sesquiphellandrene, and α-zingiberene being the most prominent. The results of the oil compositions were processed by Hierarchical Component Analysis (HCA) allowing the establishment of three groups of essential oils for T. guianensis differentiated by the content of β-selinene/α-selinene (Type I), (E)-caryophyllene (Type II), and β-sesquiphellandrene/α-zingiberene (Type III).