Palaeo wind system reconstruction of the last glacial period over Europe, using high resolution proxy data and model-data-comparison

The atmosphere is a global influence on the movement of heat and humidity between the continents, and thus significantly affects climate variability. Information about atmospheric circulation are of major importance for the understanding of different climatic conditions. Dust deposits from maar lakes and dry maars from the Eifel Volcanic Field (Germany) are therefore used as proxy data for the reconstruction of past aeolian dynamics.rnrnIn this thesis past two sediment cores from the Eifel region are examined: the core SM3 from Lake Schalkenmehren and the core DE3 from the Dehner dry maar. Both cores contain the tephra of the Laacher See eruption, which is dated to 12,900 before present. Taken together the cores cover the last 60,000 years: SM3 the Holocene and DE3 the marine isotope stages MIS-3 and MIS-2, respectively. The frequencies of glacial dust storm events and their paleo wind direction are detected by high resolution grain size and provenance analysis of the lake sediments. Therefore two different methods are applied: geochemical measurements of the sediment using µXRF-scanning and the particle analysis method RADIUS (rapid particle analysis of digital images by ultra-high-resolution scanning of thin sections).rnIt is shown that single dust layers in the lake sediment are characterized by an increased content of aeolian transported carbonate particles. The limestone-bearing Eifel-North-South zone is the most likely source for the carbonate rich aeolian dust in the lake sediments of the Dehner dry maar. The dry maar is located on the western side of the Eifel-North-South zone. Thus, carbonate rich aeolian sediment is most likely to be transported towards the Dehner dry maar within easterly winds. A methodology is developed which limits the detection to the aeolian transported carbonate particles in the sediment, the RADIUS-carbonate module.rnrnIn summary, during the marine isotope stage MIS-3 the storm frequency and the east wind frequency are both increased in comparison to MIS-2. These results leads to the suggestion that atmospheric circulation was affected by more turbulent conditions during MIS-3 in comparison to the more stable atmospheric circulation during the full glacial conditions of MIS-2.rnThe results of the investigations of the dust records are finally evaluated in relation a study of atmospheric general circulation models for a comprehensive interpretation. Here, AGCM experiments (ECHAM3 and ECHAM4) with different prescribed SST patterns are used to develop a synoptic interpretation of long-persisting east wind conditions and of east wind storm events, which are suggested to lead to an enhanced accumulation of sediment being transported by easterly winds to the proxy site of the Dehner dry maar.rnrnThe basic observations made on the proxy record are also illustrated in the 10 m-wind vectors in the different model experiments under glacial conditions with different prescribed sea surface temperature patterns. Furthermore, the analysis of long-persisting east wind conditions in the AGCM data shows a stronger seasonality under glacial conditions: all the different experiments are characterized by an increase of the relative importance of the LEWIC during spring and summer. The different glacial experiments consistently show a shift from a long-lasting high over the Baltic Sea towards the NW, directly above the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, together with contemporary enhanced westerly circulation over the North Atlantic.rnrnThis thesis is a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns during the last glacial period. It has been possible to reconstruct important elements of the glacial paleo climate in Central Europe. While the proxy data from sediment cores lead to a binary signal of the wind direction changes (east versus west wind), a synoptic interpretation using atmospheric circulation models is successful. This shows a possible distribution of high and low pressure areas and thus the direction and strength of wind fields which have the capacity to transport dust. In conclusion, the combination of numerical models, to enhance understanding of processes in the climate system, with proxy data from the environmental record is the key to a comprehensive approach to paleo climatic reconstruction.rn

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Engineering in Transition. Approaches, strategies and technologies for implementing system innovation towards sustainability

With the aim to provide people with sustainable options, engineers are ethically required to hold the safety, health and welfare of the public paramount and to satisfy society's need for sustainable development. The global crisis and related sustainability challenges are calling for a fundamental change in culture, structures and practices. Sustainability Transitions (ST) have been recognized as promising frameworks for radical system innovation towards sustainability. In order to enhance the effectiveness of transformative processes, both the adoption of a transdisciplinary approach and the experimentation of practices are crucial. The evolution of approaches towards ST provides a series of inspiring cases which allow to identify advances in making sustainability transitions happen. In this framework, the thesis has emphasized the role of Transition Engineering (TE). TE adopts a transdisciplinary approach for engineering to face the sustainability challenges and address the risks of un-sustainability. With this purpose, a definition of Transition Technologies is provided as a valid instruments to contribute to ST. In the empirical section, several transition initiatives have been analysed especially at the urban level. As a consequence, the model of living-lab of sustainability has crucially emerged. Living-labs are environments in which innovative technologies and services are co-created with users active participation. In this framework, university can play a key role as learning organization. The core of the thesis has concerned the experimental application of transition approach within the School of Engineering and Architecture of University of Bologna at Terracini Campus. The final vision is to realize a living-lab of sustainability. Particularly, a Transition Team has been established and several transition experiments have been conducted. The final result is not only the improvement of sustainability and resilience of the Terracini Campus, but the demonstration that university can generate solutions and strategies that tackle the complex, dynamic factors fuelling the global crisis.

The characterization of the Atxn2-CAG42-knock-in mouse as a model for Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 2

Die Ursache der neurodegenerativen Erkrankung Spinozerebelläre Ataxie Typ 2 (SCA2) ist eine expandierte Polyglutamin-Domäne im humanen ATXN2-Gen von normalerweise 22 auf über 31 CAGs. Von der Degeneration sind vorwiegend die zerebellären Purkinje Neuronen betroffen, in denen zunehmend zytoplasmatische Aggregate sichtbar werden. Auch wenn die genaue Funktion von ATXN2 und die zugrunde liegenden molekularen Mechanismen noch immer ungeklärt sind, werden ein toxischer Funktionsgewinn sowie der Verlust der normalen Proteinfunktion als mögliche Ursachen diskutiert.rnUm ein wirklichkeitsgetreues Tiermodell für die SCA2 zu haben, wurde eine knock-in Maus generiert, deren einzelnes CAG im Atxn2-Gen durch 42 CAGs ersetzt wurde. Dieses Mausmodell ist durch eine stabile Vererbung der Expansion charakterisiert. Weiterhin zeigt sie ein verringertes Körpergewicht sowie eine spät beginnende motorische Inkoordination, was dem Krankheitsbild von SCA2 entspricht. rnIm Weiteren konnte gezeigt werden, dass, obwohl die Atxn2 mRNA-Spiegel in Großhirn und Kleinhirn erhöht waren, die Menge an löslichem ATXN2 im Laufe der Zeit abnahm und dies mit einem Auftreten an unlöslichem ATXN2 korrelierte. Dieser im Kleinhirn progressive Prozess resultierte schließlich in zytoplasmatischen Aggregaten innerhalb der Purkinje Neuronen alter Mäuse. Der Verlust an löslichem ATXN2 könnte Effekte erklären, die auf einen partiellen Funktionsverlust von ATXN2 zurückzuführen sind, wobei die Aggregatbildung einen toxischen Funktionsgewinn wiederspiegeln könnte. Neben ATXN2 wurde auch sein Interaktor PABPC1 zunehmend unlöslich. Während dies im Großhirn eine Erhöhung der PABPC1 mRNA- und löslichen Proteinspiegel zur Folge hatte, konnte keine kompensatorische Veränderung seiner mRNA und zudem eine Verminderung an löslichem PABPC1 im Kleinhirn beobachtet werden. Auch PABPC1 wurde in Aggregate sequestriert. Diese Unterschiede zwischen Großhirn und Kleinhirn könnten zu der spezifischen Vulnerabilität des Kleinhirns beitragen.rnUm die Folgen auf mRNA-Prozessierung zu untersuchen, wurde ein Transkriptomprofil im mittleren sowie fortgeschrittenen Alter der Mäuse erstellt. Hierbei war eine erhöhte Expression von Fbxw8 im Kleinhirn alter Mäuse auffällig. Als Komponente eines Ubiquitin-E3-Ligase-Komplexes, hilft FBXW8 in der Degradierung von Zielproteinen und könnte somit die Toxizität des expandieren ATXN2 verringern. rnZur näheren Beschreibung der physiologischen Funktion von ATXN2, konnte in ATXN2-knock-out Mäusen gezeigt werden, dass das Fehlen von ATXN2 zu einer reduzierten globalen Proteinsyntheserate führte und somit eine Rolle als Translationsaktivator möglich erscheint. Kompensatorisch wurde eine erhöhte S6-Phosphorylierung gemessen.

Global modeling of pollutant transport and deposition from anthropogenic emission hot spots on global scale

Urban centers significantly contribute to anthropogenic air pollution, although they cover only a minor fraction of the Earth's land surface. Since the worldwide degree of urbanization is steadily increasing, the anthropogenic contribution to air pollution from urban centers is expected to become more substantial in future air quality assessments. The main objective of this thesis was to obtain a more profound insight in the dispersion and the deposition of aerosol particles from 46 individual major population centers (MPCs) as well as the regional and global influence on the atmospheric distribution of several aerosol types. For the first time, this was assessed in one model framework, for which the global model EMAC was applied with different representations of aerosol particles. First, in an approach with passive tracers and a setup in which the results depend only on the source location and the size and the solubility of the tracers, several metrics and a regional climate classification were used to quantify the major outflow pathways, both vertically and horizontally, and to compare the balance between pollution export away from and pollution build-up around the source points. Then in a more comprehensive approach, the anthropogenic emissions of key trace species were changed at the MPC locations to determine the cumulative impact of the MPC emissions on the atmospheric aerosol burdens of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfate, and nitrate. Ten different mono-modal passive aerosol tracers were continuously released at the same constant rate at each emission point. The results clearly showed that on average about five times more mass is advected quasi-horizontally at low levels than exported into the upper troposphere. The strength of the low-level export is mainly determined by the location of the source, while the vertical transport is mainly governed by the lifting potential and the solubility of the tracers. Similar to insoluble gas phase tracers, the low-level export of aerosol tracers is strongest at middle and high latitudes, while the regions of strongest vertical export differ between aerosol (temperate winter dry) and gas phase (tropics) tracers. The emitted mass fraction that is kept around MPCs is largest in regions where aerosol tracers have short lifetimes; this mass is also critical for assessing the impact on humans. However, the number of people who live in a strongly polluted region around urban centers depends more on the population density than on the size of the area which is affected by strong air pollution. Another major result was that fine aerosol particles (diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometer) from MPCs undergo substantial long-range transport, with about half of the emitted mass being deposited beyond 1000 km away from the source. In contrast to this diluted remote deposition, there are areas around the MPCs which experience high deposition rates, especially in regions which are frequently affected by heavy precipitation or are situated in poorly ventilated locations. Moreover, most MPC aerosol emissions are removed over land surfaces. In particular, forests experience more deposition from MPC pollutants than other land ecosystems. In addition, it was found that the generic treatment of aerosols has no substantial influence on the major conclusions drawn in this thesis. Moreover, in the more comprehensive approach, it was found that emissions of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from MPCs influence the atmospheric burden of various aerosol types very differently, with impacts generally being larger for secondary species, sulfate and nitrate, than for primary species, black carbon and particulate organic matter. While the changes in the burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and particulate organic matter show an almost linear response for changes in the emission strength, the formation of nitrate was found to be contingent upon many more factors, e.g., the abundance of sulfuric acid, than only upon the strength of the nitrogen oxide emissions. The generic tracer experiments were further extended to conduct the first risk assessment to obtain the cumulative risk of contamination from multiple nuclear reactor accidents on the global scale. For this, many factors had to be taken into account: the probability of major accidents, the cumulative deposition field of the radionuclide cesium-137, and a threshold value that defines contamination. By collecting the necessary data and after accounting for uncertainties, it was found that the risk is highest in western Europe, the eastern US, and in Japan, where on average contamination by major accidents is expected about every 50 years.

Process-based modelling of lichens and bryophytes and their role in global biogeochemical cycles

This thesis presents a process-based modelling approach to quantify carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes at the global scale. Based on the modelled carbon uptake, potential global rates of nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering by the organisms are estimated. In this way, the significance of lichens and bryophytes for global biogeochemical cycles can be assessed. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt / yr of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Based on the simulated estimates of net carbon uptake, further impacts of lichens and bryophytes on biogeochemical cycles are quantified at the global scale. Thereby the focus is on three processes, namely nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering. The presented estimates have the form of potential rates, which means that the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus is quantified which is needed by the organisms to build up biomass, also accounting for resorption and leaching of nutrients. Subsequently, the potential phosphorus uptake on bare ground is used to estimate chemical weathering by the organisms, assuming that they release weathering agents to obtain phosphorus. The predicted requirement for nitrogen ranges from 3.5 to 34 Tg / yr and for phosphorus it ranges from 0.46 to 4.6 Tg / yr. Estimates of chemical weathering are between 0.058 and 1.1 km³ / yr of rock. These values seem to have a realistic order of magnitude and they support the notion that lichens and bryophytes have the potential to play an important role for global biogeochemical cycles.

Analysis and numerical solution of the Peterlin viscoelastic model

Liquids and gasses form a vital part of nature. Many of these are complex fluids with non-Newtonian behaviour. We introduce a mathematical model describing the unsteady motion of an incompressible polymeric fluid. Each polymer molecule is treated as two beads connected by a spring. For the nonlinear spring force it is not possible to obtain a closed system of equations, unless we approximate the force law. The Peterlin approximation replaces the length of the spring by the length of the average spring. Consequently, the macroscopic dumbbell-based model for dilute polymer solutions is obtained. The model consists of the conservation of mass and momentum and time evolution of the symmetric positive definite conformation tensor, where the diffusive effects are taken into account. In two space dimensions we prove global in time existence of weak solutions. Assuming more regular data we show higher regularity and consequently uniqueness of the weak solution. For the Oseen-type Peterlin model we propose a linear pressure-stabilized characteristics finite element scheme. We derive the corresponding error estimates and we prove, for linear finite elements, the optimal first order accuracy. Theoretical error of the pressure-stabilized characteristic finite element scheme is confirmed by a series of numerical experiments.

Investigating strategies and indicators for sustainable campus: Comparison and synergies between University of Bologna and Delft University of Technology

Sustainable development is one of the biggest challenges of the twenty fist-century. Various university has begun the debate about the content of this concept and the ways in which to integrate it into their policy, organization and activities. Universities have a special responsibility to take over a leading position by demonstrating best practices that sustain and educate a sustainable society. For that reason universities have the opportunity to create the culture of sustainability for today’s student, and to set their expectations for how the world should be. This thesis aim at analyzing how Delft University of Technology and University of Bologna face the challenge of becoming a sustainable campus. In this context, both universities have been studied and analyzed following the International Sustainable Campus Network (ISCN) methodology that provides a common framework to formalize commitments and goals at campus level. In particular this work has been aimed to highlight which key performance indicators are essential to reach sustainability as a consequence the following aspects has been taken into consideration: energy use, water use, solid waste and recycling, carbon emission. Subsequently, in order to provide a better understanding of the current state of sustainability on University of Bologna and Delft University of Technology, and potential strategies to achieve the stated objective, a SWOT Analysis has been undertaken. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats have been shown to understand how the two universities can implement a synergy to improve each other. In the direction of framing a “Sustainable SWOT” has been considered the model proposed by People and Planet, so it has been necessary to evaluate important matters as for instance policy, investment, management, education and engagement. Regarding this, it has been fundamental to involve the main sustainability coordinators of the two universities, this has been achieved through a brainstorming session. Partnerships are key to the achievement of sustainability. The creation of a bridge between two universities aims to join forces and to create a new generation of talent. As a result, people can become able to support universities in the exchange of information, ideas, and best practices for achieving sustainable campus operations and integrating sustainability in research and teaching. For this purpose the project "SUCCESS" has been presented, the project aims to create an interactive European campus network that can be considered a strategic key player for sustainable campus innovation in Europe. Specifically, the main key performance indicators have been analyzed and the importance they have for the two universities and their strategic impact have been highlighted. For this reason, a survey was conducted with people who play crucial roles for sustainability within the two universities and they were asked to evaluate the KPIs of the project. This assessment has been relevant because has represented the foundation to develop a strategy to create a true collaboration.

Il modello green office come nicchia strategica per la transizione sostenibile del sistema universita the green office model as strategic niche for sustainability transition of hei systems

Nella prima parte di questo progetto di tesi, ho analizzato tutte le nozioni teoriche rilevanti in merito alla teoria della transizione. Il primo concetto condiviso in questa trattazione è quello di transizione. Nella parte finale del capitolo, il focus si sposta sul ruolo, in una generica transizione, delle nicchie. Lo strumento centrale in questa struttura sono gli esperimenti di transizione, i quali forniscono un approccio alternativo ai progetti di innovazione classica che sono incentrati nell'ottenimento di soluzioni a breve termine. Vi è dunque una forte relazione tra nicchia e sperimentazione. Infine la trattazione si concentra sul tema dello Strategic Niche Management. Nel secondo capitolo, analizzo il tema della sostenibilità inserita in un contesto universitario. Questa sezione si focalizza sulle strategie di alto livello richieste per dare avvio alla transizione universitaria verso la sostenibilità, identificando gli ostacoli e gli elementi portanti, e definendo una vision al fine di concretizzarla. Il capitolo guida, passo per passo, le università che tentano di mettere in pratica il proprio obiettivo e la vision di sviluppo sostenibile. Una delle problematiche principali per stimare gli sforzi verso la sostenibilità nelle università è costituita in modo particolare dagli strumenti di valutazione. Per questo motivo, è stata sviluppata la valutazione grafica della sostenibilità nell'università (GASU). Al fine di riassumere quanto detto fin qui ed avere un quadro generale più chiaro dell'organizzazione di un campus universitario che mira a diventare sostenibile, ho utilizzato lo strumento gestionale della SWOT Analysis. Negli ultimi due capitoli, infine, analizzo nel dettaglio il modello Green Office. La teorizzazione di questo modello e l'elaborazione dei 6 principi del Green Office sono state effettuate da rootAbility. Le seguenti pagine presentano 3 casi studio di come i 6 principi dei Green Office sono stati adattati alle 3 unità di sostenibilità guidate da studenti e supportate da staff qualificato. L'oggetto della trattazione sono i principali GO affermatisi nei Paesi Bassi. A seguito dell'introduzione del modello relativo al Green Office e dell'illustrazione degli esempi presi in esame, è stato sfruttato lo strumento della feasibility analysis al fine di giudicare se l'idea di business sia praticabile. Il mezzo con cui ho condotto l'analisi sotto riportata è un questionario relativo al modello di Green Office implementato, nel quale viene chiesto di valutare gli aspetti relativi alla organizational feasibility e alla financial feasibility. Infine nella sezione finale ho considerato i Green Office come fossero un unico movimento. L'analisi mira a considerare l'impatto globale del Green Office Movement nei sistemi universitari e come, a seguito del loro consolidarsi nella struttura accademica, possano divenire prassi comune. La struttura proposta contiene elementi sia da il SNM (Strategic Niche Management) che dal TE (Transition Experiment).

Keller-Segel system, chemotaxis and applications to a mathematical model for Alzheimer's disease

In questa tesi viene presentato il modello di Keller-Segel per la chemiotassi, un sistema di tipo parabolico-ellittico che appare nella descrizione di molti fenomeni in ambito biologico e medico. Viene mostrata l'esistenza globale della soluzione debole del modello, per dati iniziali sufficientemente piccoli in dimensione N>2. La scelta di dati iniziali abbastanza grandi invece può causare il blow-up della soluzione e viene mostrato sotto quali condizioni questo si verifica. Infine il modello della chemiotassi è stato applicato per descrivere una fase della malattia di Alzheimer ed è stata effettuata un'analisi di stabilità del sistema.

Biomechanical model of human cornea based on stromal microstructure

The optical characteristics of the human cornea depends on the mechanical balance between the intra-ocular pressure and intrinsic tissue stiffness. A wide range of ophthalmic surgical procedures alter corneal biomechanics to induce local or global curvature changes for the correction of visual acuity. Due to the large number of surgical interventions performed every day, a deeper understanding of corneal biomechanics is needed to improve the safety of these procedures and medical devices. The aim of this study is to propose a biomechanical model of the human cornea, based on stromal microstructure. The constitutive mechanical law includes collagen fiber distribution based on X-ray scattering analysis, collagen cross-linking, and fiber uncrimping. Our results showed that the proposed model reproduced inflation and extensiometry experimental data [Elsheikh et al., Curr. Eye Res., 2007; Elsheikh et al., Exp. Eye Res., 2008] successfully. The mechanical properties obtained for different age groups demonstrated an increase in collagen cross-linking for older specimens. In future work such a model could be used to simulate non-symmetric interventions, and provide better surgical planning.

Numerical model of the human cornea based on stromal microstructure: identification of mechanical properties for two age groups

The optical quality of the human eye mainly depends on the refractive performance of the cornea. The shape of the cornea is a mechanical balance between intraocular pressure and tissue intrinsic stiffness. Several surgical procedures in ophthalmology alter the biomechanics of the cornea to provoke local or global curvature changes for vision correction. Legitimated by the large number of surgical interventions performed every day, the demand for a deeper understanding of corneal biomechanics is rising to improve the safety of procedures and medical devices. The aim of our work is to propose a numerical model of corneal biomechanics, based on the stromal microstructure. Our novel anisotropic constitutive material law features a probabilistic weighting approach to model collagen fiber distribution as observed on human cornea by Xray scattering analysis (Aghamohammadzadeh et. al., Structure, February 2004). Furthermore, collagen cross-linking was explicitly included in the strain energy function. Results showed that the proposed model is able to successfully reproduce both inflation and extensiometry experimental data (Elsheikh et. al., Curr Eye Res, 2007; Elsheikh et. al., Exp Eye Res, May 2008). In addition, the mechanical properties calculated for patients of different age groups (Group A: 65-79 years; Group B: 80-95 years) demonstrate an increased collagen cross-linking, and a decrease in collagen fiber elasticity from younger to older specimen. These findings correspond to what is known about maturing fibrous biological tissue. Since the presented model can handle different loading situations and includes the anisotropic distribution of collagen fibers, it has the potential to simulate clinical procedures involving nonsymmetrical tissue interventions. In the future, such mechanical model can be used to improve surgical planning and the design of next generation ophthalmic devices.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Global Search for Minimum Energy (H2O)n Clusters, n = 3−5

The Gaussian-3 (G3) model chemistry method has been used to calculate the relative ΔG° values for all possible conformers of neutral clusters of water, (H2O)n, where n = 3−5. A complete 12-fold conformational search around each hydrogen bond produced 144, 1728, and 20 736 initial starting structures of the water trimer, tetramer, and pentamer. These structures were optimized with PM3, followed by HF/6-31G* optimization, and then with the G3 model chemistry. Only two trimers are present on the G3 potential energy hypersurface. We identified 5 tetramers and 10 pentamers on the potential energy and free-energy hypersurfaces at 298 K. None of these 17 structures were linear; all linear starting models folded into cyclic or three-dimensional structures. The cyclic pentamer is the most stable isomer at 298 K. On the basis of this and previous studies, we expect the cyclic tetramers and pentamers to be the most significant cyclic water clusters in the atmosphere.

Ability of the PM3 Quantum Mechanical Method to Model Intermolecular Hydrogen Bonding between Neutral Molecules

The PM3 semiempirical quantum-mechanical method was found to systematically describe intermolecular hydrogen bonding in small polar molecules. PM3 shows charge transfer from the donor to acceptor molecules on the order of 0.02-0.06 units of charge when strong hydrogen bonds are formed. The PM3 method is predictive; calculated hydrogen bond energies with an absolute magnitude greater than 2 kcal mol-' suggest that the global minimum is a hydrogen bonded complex; absolute energies less than 2 kcal mol-' imply that other van der Waals complexes are more stable. The geometries of the PM3 hydrogen bonded complexes agree with high-resolution spectroscopic observations, gas electron diffraction data, and high-level ab initio calculations. The main limitations in the PM3 method are the underestimation of hydrogen bond lengths by 0.1-0.2 for some systems and the underestimation of reliable experimental hydrogen bond energies by approximately 1-2 kcal mol-l. The PM3 method predicts that ammonia is a good hydrogen bond acceptor and a poor hydrogen donor when interacting with neutral molecules. Electronegativity differences between F, N, and 0 predict that donor strength follows the order F > 0 > N and acceptor strength follows the order N > 0 > F. In the calculations presented in this article, the PM3 method mirrors these electronegativity differences, predicting the F-H- - -N bond to be the strongest and the N-H- - -F bond the weakest. It appears that the PM3 Hamiltonian is able to model hydrogen bonding because of the reduction of two-center repulsive forces brought about by the parameterization of the Gaussian core-core interactions. The ability of the PM3 method to model intermolecular hydrogen bonding means reasonably accurate quantum-mechanical calculations can be applied to small biologic systems.