An analytical model on the propagation of modern email worms

Email worms propagate across networks by taking advantage of email relationships. Modeling the propagation of email worms can help predict their potential damages and develop countermeasures. We propose a novel analytical model on the propagation process of modern reinfection email worms. It relies on probabilistic analysis, and thus can provide a steady and reliable assessment on the propagation dynamics. Additionally, by introducing virtual users to represent the repetitious spreading process, the proposed model overcomes the computational challenge caused by reinfection processes. To demonstrate the benefits of our model, we conduct a series of experimental evaluation. The results show that our novel approach achieves a greater accuracy and is more suitable for modeling modern email worms than previous models.

V2O5·nH2O crystalline nanosheets : hydrothermal fabrication and structure evolution

V2O5·nH2O nanosheets are fabricated hydrothermally with the acidified peroxovanadate solution at 200 °C for 12 h. The X-ray diffraction suggests that V2O5·nH2O nanosheets display lamellar ordering along c-axis direction. Transmission electron microscopy, field-emission scanning electron microscopy, and selected area electron diffraction indicate that V2O5·nH2O nanosheets are very thin in thickness and micron-sized in lateral dimension, and they are two-dimensional crystallites. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and thermogravimetric analysis are utilized to confirm the elemental composition of nanosheets. The formation process of nanosheets is also discussed in terms of time- and temperature-controlled experiments.

Propensity score matching and variations on the balancing test

Balancing tests are diagnostics designed for use with propensity score methods, a widely used non-experimental approach in the evaluation literature. Such tests provide useful information on whether plausible counterfactuals have been created. Currently, multiple balancing tests exist in the literature but it is unclear which is the most useful. This article highlights the poor size properties of commonly employed balancing tests and attempts to shed some light on the link between the results of balancing tests and bias of the evaluation estimator. The simulation results suggest that in scenarios where the conditional independence assumption holds, a permutation version of the balancing test described in Dehejia and Wahba (Rev Econ Stat 84:151–161, 2002) can be useful in applied study. The proposed test has good size properties. In addition, the test appears to have good power for detecting a misspecification in the link function and some power for detecting an omission of relevant non-linear terms involving variables that are included at a lower order.

Modeling propagation dynamics of social network worms

Social network worms, such as email worms and facebook worms, pose a critical security threat to the Internet. Modeling their propagation dynamics is essential to predict their potential damages and develop countermeasures. Although several analytical models have been proposed for modeling propagation dynamics of social network worms, there are two critical problems unsolved: temporal dynamics and spatial dependence. First, previous models have not taken into account the different time periods of Internet users checking emails or social messages, namely, temporal dynamics. Second, the problem of spatial dependence results from the improper assumption that the states of neighboring nodes are independent. These two problems seriously affect the accuracy of the previous analytical models. To address these two problems, we propose a novel analytical model. This model implements a spatial-temporal synchronization process, which is able to capture the temporal dynamics. Additionally, we find the essence of spatial dependence is the spreading cycles. By eliminating the effect of these cycles, our model overcomes the computational challenge of spatial dependence and provides a stronger approximation to the propagation dynamics. To evaluate our susceptible-infectious-immunized (SII) model, we conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations. Compared with previous epidemic models and the spatial-temporal model, the experimental results show our SII model achieves a greater accuracy. We also compare our model with the susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious- recovered models. The results show that our model is more suitable for modeling the propagation of social network worms.