994 resultados para Forecast error


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Redshift Space Distortions (RSD) are an apparent anisotropy in the distribution of galaxies due to their peculiar motion. These features are imprinted in the correlation function of galaxies, which describes how these structures distribute around each other. RSD can be represented by a distortions parameter $\beta$, which is strictly related to the growth of cosmic structures. For this reason, measurements of RSD can be exploited to give constraints on the cosmological parameters, such us for example the neutrino mass. Neutrinos are neutral subatomic particles that come with three flavours, the electron, the muon and the tau neutrino. Their mass differences can be measured in the oscillation experiments. Information on the absolute scale of neutrino mass can come from cosmology, since neutrinos leave a characteristic imprint on the large scale structure of the universe. The aim of this thesis is to provide constraints on the accuracy with which neutrino mass can be estimated when expoiting measurements of RSD. In particular we want to describe how the error on the neutrino mass estimate depends on three fundamental parameters of a galaxy redshift survey: the density of the catalogue, the bias of the sample considered and the volume observed. In doing this we make use of the BASICC Simulation from which we extract a series of dark matter halo catalogues, characterized by different value of bias, density and volume. This mock data are analysed via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure, in order to estimate the neutrino mass fraction, using the software package CosmoMC, which has been conveniently modified. In this way we are able to extract a fitting formula describing our measurements, which can be used to forecast the precision reachable in future surveys like Euclid, using this kind of observations.

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In technical design processes in the automotive industry, digital prototypes rapidly gain importance, because they allow for a detection of design errors in early development stages. The technical design process includes the computation of swept volumes for maintainability analysis and clearance checks. The swept volume is very useful, for example, to identify problem areas where a safety distance might not be kept. With the explicit construction of the swept volume an engineer gets evidence on how the shape of components that come too close have to be modified.rnIn this thesis a concept for the approximation of the outer boundary of a swept volume is developed. For safety reasons, it is essential that the approximation is conservative, i.e., that the swept volume is completely enclosed by the approximation. On the other hand, one wishes to approximate the swept volume as precisely as possible. In this work, we will show, that the one-sided Hausdorff distance is the adequate measure for the error of the approximation, when the intended usage is clearance checks, continuous collision detection and maintainability analysis in CAD. We present two implementations that apply the concept and generate a manifold triangle mesh that approximates the outer boundary of a swept volume. Both algorithms are two-phased: a sweeping phase which generates a conservative voxelization of the swept volume, and the actual mesh generation which is based on restricted Delaunay refinement. This approach ensures a high precision of the approximation while respecting conservativeness.rnThe benchmarks for our test are amongst others real world scenarios that come from the automotive industry.rnFurther, we introduce a method to relate parts of an already computed swept volume boundary to those triangles of the generator, that come closest during the sweep. We use this to verify as well as to colorize meshes resulting from our implementations.

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The uncertainties in the determination of the stratigraphic profile of natural soils is one of the main problems in geotechnics, in particular for landslide characterization and modeling. The study deals with a new approach in geotechnical modeling which relays on a stochastic generation of different soil layers distributions, following a boolean logic – the method has been thus called BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation). In this way, it is possible to randomize the presence of a specific material interdigitated in a uniform matrix. In the building of a geotechnical model it is generally common to discard some stratigraphic data in order to simplify the model itself, assuming that the significance of the results of the modeling procedure would not be affected. With the proposed technique it is possible to quantify the error associated with this simplification. Moreover, it could be used to determine the most significant zones where eventual further investigations and surveys would be more effective to build the geotechnical model of the slope. The commercial software FLAC was used for the 2D and 3D geotechnical model. The distribution of the materials was randomized through a specifically coded MatLab program that automatically generates text files, each of them representing a specific soil configuration. Besides, a routine was designed to automate the computation of FLAC with the different data files in order to maximize the sample number. The methodology is applied with reference to a simplified slope in 2D, a simplified slope in 3D and an actual landslide, namely the Mortisa mudslide (Cortina d’Ampezzo, BL, Italy). However, it could be extended to numerous different cases, especially for hydrogeological analysis and landslide stability assessment, in different geological and geomorphological contexts.

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Il lavoro descrive la progettazione, l'implementazione e il test sperimentale di un meccanismo, integrato nel kernel Linux 4.0, dedicato al riconoscimento delle perdite dei frame Wi-Fi.

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I Polar Codes sono la prima classe di codici a correzione d’errore di cui è stato dimostrato il raggiungimento della capacità per ogni canale simmetrico, discreto e senza memoria, grazie ad un nuovo metodo introdotto recentemente, chiamato ”Channel Polarization”. In questa tesi verranno descritti in dettaglio i principali algoritmi di codifica e decodifica. In particolare verranno confrontate le prestazioni dei simulatori sviluppati per il ”Successive Cancellation Decoder” e per il ”Successive Cancellation List Decoder” rispetto ai risultati riportati in letteratura. Al fine di migliorare la distanza minima e di conseguenza le prestazioni, utilizzeremo uno schema concatenato con il polar code come codice interno ed un CRC come codice esterno. Proporremo inoltre una nuova tecnica per analizzare la channel polarization nel caso di trasmissione su canale AWGN che risulta il modello statistico più appropriato per le comunicazioni satellitari e nelle applicazioni deep space. In aggiunta, investigheremo l’importanza di una accurata approssimazione delle funzioni di polarizzazione.

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Modern imaging technologies, such as computed tomography (CT) techniques, represent a great challenge in forensic pathology. The field of forensics has experienced a rapid increase in the use of these new techniques to support investigations on critical cases, as indicated by the implementation of CT scanning by different forensic institutions worldwide. Advances in CT imaging techniques over the past few decades have finally led some authors to propose that virtual autopsy, a radiological method applied to post-mortem analysis, is a reliable alternative to traditional autopsy, at least in certain cases. The authors investigate the occurrence and the causes of errors and mistakes in diagnostic imaging applied to virtual autopsy. A case of suicide by a gunshot wound was submitted to full-body CT scanning before autopsy. We compared the first examination of sectional images with the autopsy findings and found a preliminary misdiagnosis in detecting a peritoneal lesion by gunshot wound that was due to radiologist's error. Then we discuss a new emerging issue related to the risk of diagnostic failure in virtual autopsy due to radiologist's error that is similar to what occurs in clinical radiology practice.

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Patients can make contributions to the safety of chemotherapy administration but little is known about their motivations to participate in safety-enhancing strategies. The theory of planned behavior was applied to analyze attitudes, norms, behavioral control, and chemotherapy patients' intentions to participate in medical error prevention.

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Percutaneous needle intervention based on PET/CT images is effective, but exposes the patient to unnecessary radiation due to the increased number of CT scans required. Computer assisted intervention can reduce the number of scans, but requires handling, matching and visualization of two different datasets. While one dataset is used for target definition according to metabolism, the other is used for instrument guidance according to anatomical structures. No navigation systems capable of handling such data and performing PET/CT image-based procedures while following clinically approved protocols for oncologic percutaneous interventions are available. The need for such systems is emphasized in scenarios where the target can be located in different types of tissue such as bone and soft tissue. These two tissues require different clinical protocols for puncturing and may therefore give rise to different problems during the navigated intervention. Studies comparing the performance of navigated needle interventions targeting lesions located in these two types of tissue are not often found in the literature. Hence, this paper presents an optical navigation system for percutaneous needle interventions based on PET/CT images. The system provides viewers for guiding the physician to the target with real-time visualization of PET/CT datasets, and is able to handle targets located in both bone and soft tissue. The navigation system and the required clinical workflow were designed taking into consideration clinical protocols and requirements, and the system is thus operable by a single person, even during transition to the sterile phase. Both the system and the workflow were evaluated in an initial set of experiments simulating 41 lesions (23 located in bone tissue and 18 in soft tissue) in swine cadavers. We also measured and decomposed the overall system error into distinct error sources, which allowed for the identification of particularities involved in the process as well as highlighting the differences between bone and soft tissue punctures. An overall average error of 4.23 mm and 3.07 mm for bone and soft tissue punctures, respectively, demonstrated the feasibility of using this system for such interventions. The proposed system workflow was shown to be effective in separating the preparation from the sterile phase, as well as in keeping the system manageable by a single operator. Among the distinct sources of error, the user error based on the system accuracy (defined as the distance from the planned target to the actual needle tip) appeared to be the most significant. Bone punctures showed higher user error, whereas soft tissue punctures showed higher tissue deformation error.

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Medical errors are a serious threat to chemotherapy patients. Patients can make contributions to safety but little is known about the acceptability of error-preventing behaviors and its predictors.

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The purpose of this study was (1) to determine frequency and type of medication errors (MEs), (2) to assess the number of MEs prevented by registered nurses, (3) to assess the consequences of ME for patients, and (4) to compare the number of MEs reported by a newly developed medication error self-reporting tool to the number reported by the traditional incident reporting system. We conducted a cross-sectional study on ME in the Cardiovascular Surgery Department of Bern University Hospital in Switzerland. Eligible registered nurses (n = 119) involving in the medication process were included. Data on ME were collected using an investigator-developed medication error self reporting tool (MESRT) that asked about the occurrence and characteristics of ME. Registered nurses were instructed to complete a MESRT at the end of each shift even if there was no ME. All MESRTs were completed anonymously. During the one-month study period, a total of 987 MESRTs were returned. Of the 987 completed MESRTs, 288 (29%) indicated that there had been an ME. Registered nurses reported preventing 49 (5%) MEs. Overall, eight (2.8%) MEs had patient consequences. The high response rate suggests that this new method may be a very effective approach to detect, report, and describe ME in hospitals.