SATELLITE REMOTE-SENSING PREDICTION OF JAPANESE PILCHARD FISHING GROUND IN THE HUANGHAI SEA AND THE EAST-CHINA-SEA

The thermophily, fishing season and central fishing ground of Japanese pilchard (Sardinops melanosticta) were studied by using satellite remote sensing (SRS) and other methods in Haizhou Bay and Tsushima waters during 1986-1990. A rapid prediction method of fishing ground is presented. Moreover, the results indicated that the thermophilic values of the fish stock are 11-20 degrees C and both fishing grounds are in increasing temperature process from the beginning to the end of the fishing period. The Japanese pilchards gather vigorously at the sea surface temperature of 15-17 degrees C. The water temperature is a key factor affecting the fishing season and the catch of the fishing ground. The increasing temperature process restricts the fishing season development and central fishing ground formation. The accuracy of 15 predictions made in the Haizhou Bay fishing ground is up to 91.3%, and 37 predictions made in the Tsushima, fishing ground shorten the fish detection time by 13.4% - 22% on the average.

Analysis on deep crustal structure along the onshore-offshore seismic profile across the Binhai (littoral) fault zone in northeastern South China Sea

The onshore-offshore deep seismic experiment was carried out for the first time and filled the blankness of the seismic surveys in the transition area between South China and northeastern South China Sea. The seismic data were analyzed and processed. The different seismic phases were identified and their travel time arrivals were modeled by ray-tracing to study the P-wave velocity crustal structure of this area. The crustal structure of this area is the continental crust. The crust thickness is gradually decreasing southward along the on-shore-offshore seismic line. The low-velocity layer (5.5 similar to 5.9 km (.) s(-1)) exists generally in the middle crust (about 10.0 similar to 18.0km)with about 2.5 similar to 4.0 km thickness, which is also thinning seaward. No obvious high-velocity layer appears in the lower crust. The Binhai (littoral) fault zone is a low velocity zone, which is located about 35km southeast to the Nan'ao station and corresponding to the gradient belt of gravity & magnetism anomalies. The depth of the fault zone is close to the Moho discontinuity. The littoral fault zone is a boundary between the normal continental crust of South China and the thinned continental crust of the sea area.

A comprehensive investigation of an offshore active fault in the Western Sagami Bay, central Japan

Offshore active faults, especially those in the deep sea, are very difficult to study because of the water and sedimentary cover. To characterize the nature and geometry of offshore active faults, a combination of methods must be employed. Generally, seismic profiling is used to map these faults, but often only fault-related folds rather than fracture planes are imaged. Multi-beam swath bathymetry provides information on the structure and growth history of a fault because movements of an active fault are reflected in the bottom morphology. Submersible and deep-tow surveys allow direct observations of deformations on the seafloor (including fracture zones and microstructures). In the deep sea, linearly aligned cold seep communities provide indirect evidence for active faults and the spatial migration of their activities. The Western Sagami Bay fault (WSBF) in the western Sagami Bay off central Japan is an active fault that has been studied in detail using the above methods. The bottom morphology, fractured breccias directly observed and photographed, seismic profiles, as well as distribution and migration of cold seep communities provide evidence for the nature and geometry of the fault. Focal mechanism solutions of selected earthquakes in the western Sagami Bay during the period from 1900 to 1995 show that the maximum compression trends NW-SE and the minimum stress axis strikes NE-SW, a stress pattern indicating a left-lateral strike-slip fault.

Seismic profiles across the middle Tan-Lu fault zone in Laizhou Bay, Bohai Sea, eastern China

The stratigraphic architecture, structure and Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Tan-Lu fault zone in Laizhou Bay, eastern China, are analyzed based on interpretations of 31 new 2D seismic lines across Laizhou Bay. Cenozoic strata in the study area are divided into two layers separated by a prominent and widespread unconformity. The upper sedimentary layer is made up of Neogene and Quaternary fluvial and marine sediments, while the lower layer consists of Paleogene lacustrine and fluvial facies. In terms of tectonics, the sediments beneath the unconformity can be divided into four main structural units: the west depression, central uplift, east depression and Ludong uplift. The two branches of the middle Tan-Lu fault zone differ in their geometry and offset: the east branch fault is a steeply dipping S-shaped strike-slip fault that cuts acoustic basement at depths greater than 8 km, whereas the west branch fault is a relatively shallow normal fault. The Tan-Lu fault zone is the key fault in the study area, having controlled its Cenozoic evolution. Based on balanced cross-sections constructed along transverse seismic line 99.8 and longitudinal seismic line 699.0, the Cenozoic evolution of the middle Tan-Lu fault zone is divided into three stages: Paleocene-Eocene transtension, Oligocene-Early Miocene transpression and Middle Miocene to present-day stable subsidence. The reasons for the contrasting tectonic features of the two branch faults and the timing of the change from transtension to transpression are discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.

Prediction of marine sediment corrosion by fuzzy clustering analysis

Along with the development of marine industries, especially marine petroleum exploitation, more and more pipelines are buried in the marine sediment. It is necessary and useful to know the corrosion environment and corrosiveness of marine sediment. In this paper, field corrosion environmental factors were investigated in Liaodong Bay marine sediment containing sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and corrosion rate of steel in the partly sediment specimens were determined by the transplanting burying method. Based on the data, the fuzzy clustering analysis (FCA) was applied to evaluate and predict the corrosiveness of marine sediment. On that basis, the influence factors of corrosion damage were discussed.

一种基于新型数据预测方法的MICA仿真研究

在多元统计过程监控中,为解决因未知过程数据统计分布而产生误报漏报的现象,提出一种结合多向独立元分析法(MICA)和广义相关系数(GCC)数据预测的综合方法,进行在线监控过程的仿真。MICA分析方法能有效分解各变量的关联关系,且不需考虑建模数据是否符合正态分布,用此方法计算的独立元变量能更好地描述过程的变化规律。为提高预报未来过程故障的能力,提出用广义相关系数法进行数据预测:确定与运行轨迹相似的监控模型库中的轨迹,并使其相应部分承接于运行轨迹之后。现场采集聚氯乙烯聚合过程的数据进行仿真,仿真结果显示:对于在线监控和在线故障诊断方面,这种新型预测方法优于其它传统处理预测问题的方法。

大港油田复杂断块油气藏评价技术研究与应用

In this paper, in view of characteristics and appraisal difficulty of complicate fault block reservoir, based on the theory of reservoir geology, tectonic geology, sequence stratigraphy, logging geology and sedimentology, according to related multidisciplinary data, such as geological, geophysical, logging and testing, taking 3D seismic acquisition processing, delicate structure interpretation, fine reservoir prediction, reservoir engineering and logging evaluation as research methods, on the basis of comprehensive geologic research, innovative appraisal thinking of complicate fault block reservoir is probed into, reservoir evaluation technology series of different reservoirs were created, and appraisal circuit of complicate fault block reservoir was proposed. According to the research on main controlling factors of hydrocarbon and concentration and concealing laws of Dagang exploration area, family assemble patterns of complicate fault block reservoir were proposed firstly, such as twinning, juxtaposed, overlying, concurrent, connected in series and so on, so theory basement was provided to reservoir evaluation. Taking into account of difficulties of low signal to noise ratio and border identification of lithologic trap of complicate fault block reservoir, in the middle of seismic data acquisition, double focusing layout and optimization technology were adopted, geophysical model was set up, and best observation system was ascertained. During object processing, matching processing technology of removing time difference, phase difference, energy difference and frequency spectrum difference generated by different blazing and receiving elements was studied. Imagery, low amplitude structure and identification of subtle lithologic reservoir was interpreted reasonably. On the basis of characteristics and technical description analysis of structural, structural--lithologic and lithologic reservoirs, innovative appraisal thinking of these reservoirs was formatted, appraisal circuit of complicate fault block reservoir was proposed, and this method could be used in other similar oilfields

黄骅坳陷马东地区沙河街组重力流水道储层评价及剩余油研究

In this paper, taking Madong district of Huanghua depression as a case, based on the theory of sequence stratigraphy, sedimentology, reservoir geology and geophysics, according to core analysis, seismic attribute analysis, logging constrained inversion, multi-data correlation of strata, reservoir modeling, etc. the lower and middle first member of Shahejie formation of the study area was forecasted and evaluated. As a result, a number of reservoir prediction and remaining oil distribution methods suitable to oil exploitation of gravity flow channel reservoir are presented. Scientific foundation is provided to the next adjustment of development program and exploitation of the remaining oil. According to high resolution sequence stratigraphy theory, precise stratigraphic framework was founded, the facies types and facies distribution were studied under the control of stratigraphic framework, the technologies of seismic attribute abstraction and logging constrained inversion. Result shows that gravity flow channel, as the main facies, developed in the rising period of base-level cycle, and it was formed during the phase of contemporaneous fault growth. As the channel extends, channel width was gradually widened but thickness thined. The single channels were in possession of a great variety of integrated modes, such as isolated, branching off, merging and paralleling, forming a kind of sand-mud interblending complex sedimentary units. Reservoir quality differs greatly in vertical and horizontal direction, and sedimentary microfacies is main controlling factor of the reservoir quality. In major channel, deposition thickness is great, and petrophysical property is well. While in marginal channel, reservoir is thinner, and petrophysical property is unfavorable. Structure and reservoir quality are main factors which control the oil and gas distribution in the study area. On the basis of the research about the reservoir quality, internal, planar and 3-D reservoir heterogeneities are characterized, and the reservoir quality was sorted rationally. At last, based on the research of reservoir numerical simulation of key well group, combined with reservoir performance analysis and geological analysis above, remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by internal rhythm of gravity flow channel were set up. Through this research, a facies-restrained reservoir prediction method integrating multi-information was presented, and potential orientation of remaining oil distribution in gravity flow channel reservoir is clarified.

松辽盆地长岭断陷火山岩储层识别与勘探目标评价

Changling fault depression is the biggest fault subsidence in south of Songliao Basin. In its Lower Cretaceous Yingcheng and Shahezi formations developed thick source rocks of deep lake facies and developed poly-phase volcanic rock reservoirs as well. In recent years, significant breakthroughs have been obtained in hydrocarbon exploration of volcanic rock reservoir in the different fault depressions in Songliao basin. Lately, I have been involved in hydrocarbon exploration in the Changling rift depression, especially volcanic rock reservoirs and exploration targets research, participating in the deployment of well Yaoshen 1 which gained over 40 × 104m3 natural gas flow. As quick changes of lithology and facies in Changling area in the south of Songliao basin, and the volcanic rock interludes distribution in continental clastic rock and shale in 3D space, so the identification of volcanic rock types and distribution become a difficult problem. Thus, based on the integrated research of the wild outcrop observation, gravity, magnetic and seismic data, geophysical logging, drilling and coring, laboratory test, this paper carried out the reservoir identification, description and prediction of volcanic rocks in Changling fault depression. In this area, this paper analyzed the volcanic rocks litho-facies, the eruption period, and characteristics of cycles. At the same time, tried to know how to use logging, seismic data to separate volcanic rocks from sandstone and shale, distinguish between volcanic reservoir and non-reservoir, distinguish between intermediate-basic and acidic volcanic rocks, and how to identify traps of volcanic rocks and its gas-bearing properties, etc. Also it is summarized forming conditions and distribution of traps, and possible gas-bearing traps were optimized queuing management. Conclusions as follows: There are two faulted basements in Changling fault depression, granite basement in the southeast and upper paleozoic epimetamorphic basement in the northwest. The main volcanic reservoirs developed in Yingcheng period, which was the intermediate-basic and acidic volcanic eruptions, from the south to north by the intermediate-basic to acid conversion. The volcanic vents are gradually young from south to north. According to information of the re-processing 3D seismic data and gravity-magnetic data, the large volcanic vent or conduit was mainly beaded-distributed along the main fault. The volcanic rocks thickness in Yingcheng formation was changed by the deep faults and basement boundary line. Compared with the clastic rocks, volcanic rocks in Changling area are with high resistance and velocity (4900-5800), abnormal Gamma. All kinds of volcanic rocks are with abnormal strong amplitude reflection on the seismic stacked section except tuff. By analyzing the seismic facies characteristics of volcanic rocks, optimizing seismic attributes constrained by logging, using seismic amplitude and waveforms and other attributes divided volcanic rocks of Yingcheng formation into four seismic zones in map. Currently, most volcanic gas reservoirs are fault-anticline and fault-nose structure. But the volcanic dome lithologic gas reservoirs with large quantity and size are the main gas reservoir types to be found.

冀东油田柳南地区新近系油藏剩余油形成及分布规律研究

This thesis is based on the research project of Study on the Geological Characteristics and Remaining Oil Distribution Law of Neogene Reservoirs in Liunan Area, which is one of the key research projects set by PetroChina Jidong Oilfield Company in 2006. The determination of remaining oil distribution and its saturation changes are the most important research contents for the development and production modification of oilfields in high water-cut phases. Liunan oilfield, located in Tangshan of Hebei Province geographically and in Gaoliu structural belt of Nanpu sag in Bohai Bay Basin structurally, is one of the earliest fields put into production of Jidong oilfield. Focusing on the development problems encountered during the production of the field, this thesis establishes the fine geological reservoir model through the study of reservoir properties such as fine beds correlation, sedimentary facies, micro structures, micro reservoir architecture, flow units and fluid properties. Using routine method of reservoir engineering and technology of reservoir numerical modeling, remaining oil distribution in the target beds of Liunan area is predicted successfully, while the controling factors of remaining oil distribution are illustrated, and the model of remaining oil distribution for fault-block structure reservoirs is established. Using staged-subdivision reservoir correlation and FZI study, the Strata in Liunan Area is subdivided step by step; oil sand body data-list is recompiled; diagram databases are established; plane and section configuration of monolayer sandstone body, and combination pattern of sandstone bodys are summarized. The study of multi-level staged subdivision for sedimentary micro-facies shows that the Lower member of Minghuazhen formation and the whole Guantao formation in Liunan Area belong to meandering river and braided river sedimentary facies respectively, including 8 micro facies such as after point bar, channel bar, channel, natural levee, crevasse splay, abandoned channel, flood plain and flood basin. Fine 3D geological modeling is performed through the application of advanced software and integration of geological, seismic logging and reservoir engineering data. High resolution numerical simulation is performed with a reserve fitting error less than 3%, an average pressure fitting fluctuation range lower than 2Mpa and an accumulate water cut fitting error less than 5%. In this way, the distribution law of the target reservoir in the study area is basically recognized. Eight major remaining oil distribution models are established after analysis of production status and production features in different blocks and different layers. In addition, fuzzy mathematics method is used to the integreted evaluation and prediction of abundant remaining oil accumulation area in major production beds and key sedimentary time units of the shallow strata in Liunan Area and corresponding modification comments are put forward. In summary, the establishment of fine reservoir geological model, reservoir numerical simulation and distribution prediction of remaining oil make a sound foundation for further stimulation of oilfield development performance.

金川矿山岩体移动规律及竖井变形、破坏机理研究

The Jinchuan Nickel Mine is the largest underground mine with cut-and-fill mining in China. It is very difficult to be exploited for very low safety stability of rock mass caused by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rock mass and high stress. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement、mechanics of shaft deformation and destroy were analyzed based on the collection of date, the detailed field engineering investigations, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring result of ground surface movement, there are different ground movement characteristics among the three Mine area of Jinchuan Nickel Mine. In No. 2 Mine area, the ground movement funnel with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the up faulted block than in the down faulted block, and the centre of ground movement is moving along the up faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. Moreover, the tunnels in the corresponding area with the centre of ground movement are damaged seriously. In Longshou Mine area, the ground movement funnel is also developing, but the moving path and the nonlinear characters are more sophisticated because of the long-term effects of open excavating and the effects of underground mining together. In No. 3 Mine area, the underground mining impact on surface is not serious for the time of mining activity is not for long, but the ground movement funnel is also forming now. The underground mining has caused widespread land subsidence in Jinchuan Nickel Mine area, but the phenomena of surface raise appeared in some partial areas of Longshou Mine area and No. 3 Mine area. Analysis proved that the reason for the open pit bottom raise is the slope deformation activation caused by the excavation from open pit into underground mine; and that the raise of surface in No.3 Mine area is caused by the effect of elastic foundation due to underground mining. Although the GPS Monitoring results show the amount of subsidence is increasing constantly, the subsidence rate has a descending tendency with fluctuation in Jinchuan No. 2 Mine area. The subsidence rate curve is a time function and exists an extreme point, the rate increasing before extreme point and decreasing after the extreme point ,but the scale of decreasing rate will be very small after the rate decreasing up to a certain degree, moreover, the characteristics is different among different areas, which have some relation with the distance to the mining section and the dip of the ore body. ArcView is GIS software, which we adopted as a development platform, and made secondary development by its development language “avenue”, through which we developed a ground movement analysis and forecast System for Jinchuan Nickel Mine, which contain three modules : management of ground movement information; analysis and evaluation of ground movement; and ground movement forecast. In the module of evaluation, using the technique of MATLAB6.5 program with VB6.0, the system can achieve the ANN prediction model for GPS monitoring data, data preparation results analysis and model integrated was realized by Avenue programming. Finally, the author analyzed the mechanical of deformation and destroy of the No. 14 shaft, and its repair and artificial-support effectiveness also given detailed demonstration in various aspect. The result showed that the reason for the destroy of No. 14 shaft is underground mining, and being the case, the destroy of the shaft also has its special features, which mainly contains forked stress contour for mining steep ore and fault effect caused by mining activities. The repair and artificial-support played some restrictions on the rock mass movement and deformation, but did not show a strong or marked effect. With the increasing of mining depth and large-scale, the closure rock of the shaft will still deformed, even be destroyed.

复杂断块油气藏成藏机理和剩余油预测

Complex fault block reservoir is very important type in chinese oilfield.The reservoir have for many years and it has been the important issue of oil-gas exploration and development in china that how to increase reserves and production. Therefore,taking the Pucheng-oil field as an example, the article intensive study the geologic feature of oil pool, correctly recognize the rule of oil-gas accumulation and based on the fine representation of the characteristic of reservoir, research the remaining oil in high developed area,which is important for progressive exploratioon and development and taping the remaining oil. The article multipurpose uses the data of geology,drilling,wellloging, analysis and assay and so on, under the guidance multi-disciplinary theory, intensify the comprehension of the geologic feature of oil pool in high developed oil field. Based on the high-resolution sequence stratigraphic framework ,the article points out that Es_2 upper 2+3 reservoir in the south area of Pucheng oilfield is in the depositional environment of Terminal Fan, which has constant supply of sedimentary source ,and build the sedimentation model. Studies have shown that the major reservoir in work area is the distributary channel sandbody in central Sub-facies of Terminal Fan，secondary is both lateral accretion sandbodies of channel sands，nearby and far away from the channel overflowing sandbodies in front of the fan. The article analyze the effect of depth of burial of the reservoir, sandstone structure, strata pressure and bioturbate structure on control action of physical property for reservoir and indicate that deposition and diagenesis are major controlling factors.By building the model of reservoir heterogeneity, the article show the magnitude of reservoir heterogeneity ,the genesis and identification mark of Interlayer and build the the model of interlayer. in this area the vertical distribution of interlayer is complicated,but the intraed interlayer distribute steady. Thick interlayer is steady and the thin is relatively spreaded. By building models of fault sealing,stress field and fluid potential field of the south of the pucheng oil field, the regular pattern of fluid migration and accumulation runs out. By researching the elements of oil accumulation, migration pathway and accumulation period with quantification and semiquantitative methods,we bulit the oil-gas reservoir-forming mode of the south of the pucheng oil field,which will be the foundation of the rolling exploratory development in the future. We promulgated the master control element and the rule of distribution of the remaining oil with the upside 2+3 oil layer in shaer in the south of the pucheng oil field as an example.In this area, the formation and the distribution of the remaining oil is controled by the sedimentary microfacies, reservoir heterogeneity,fault and reservoir engineering. The remaining oil is concentrated in the vicinity of the gas cap, updip of the fault block and the area with incomplete flooding. Remaining oil saturation in some area can get 50%, so there are many places in which we can enhance oil recovery.