A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Use of lignin extracted from different plant sources as standards in the spectrophotometric acetyl bromide lignin method

A nongravimetric acetyl bromide lignin (ABL) method was evaluated to quantify lignin concentration in a variety of plant materials. The traditional approach to lignin quantification required extraction of lignin with acidic dioxane and its isolation from each plant sample to construct a standard curve via spectrophotometric analysis. Lignin concentration was then measured in pre-extracted plant cell walls. However, this presented a methodological complexity because extraction and isolation procedures are lengthy and tedious, particularly if there are many samples involved. This work was targeted to simplify lignin quantification. Our hypothesis was that any lignin, regardless of its botanical origin, could be used to construct a standard curve for the purpose of determining lignin concentration in a variety of plants. To test our hypothesis, lignins were isolated from a range of diverse plants and, along with three commercial lignins, standard curves were built and compared among them. Slopes and intercepts derived from these standard curves were close enough to allow utilization of a mean extinction coefficient in the regression equation to estimate : lignin concentration in any plant, independent of its botanical origin. Lignin quantification by use of a common regression equation obviates the steps of lignin extraction, isolation, and standard curve construction, which substantially expedites the ABL method. Acetyl bromide lignin method is a fast, convenient analytical procedure that may routinely be used to quantify lignin.

Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella

The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy between results and official notification data before vaccination era leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80% of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total number of infections compared to notification data.

Dynamics and Control of Stray Dog Populations

The population dynamics of stray dogs is simulated to assess the effects of sterilization and euthanasia. From simulations representing less than 5 years, sterilization is less efficient than euthanasia to reduce the stray dog population, considering similar rates, but the total number of sterilized dogs is less than the total number of euthanized dogs per km(2) per year. Over 20 years, both strategies have similar efficiency. Beyond a certain rate of dog abandonment, both strategies are inefficient.

Hepatic Hemosiderosis in Red-Spectacled Amazons (Amazona pretrei) and Correlation with Nutritional Aspects

Alimentary habits of free-living Psittaciformes vary significantly among different species. Amazona pretrei is under risk of extinction and has very specific free-living dietary habits, which are based on Parana pine seeds. Hemosiderosis is a pathologic process characterized by intracellular accumulation of iron without other evident lesions. It is associated with increased prevalence of infections, neoplasms, and hepatopathies. The purpose of this study was to quantify hepatic hemosiderin deposits in captive A. pretrei and verify their association with nutritional parameters. Liver samples were processed for histopathology and stained with Prussian blue. The sections were analyzed by computerized morphometry to quantify the hepatic hemosiderin deposits. The hepatic hemosiderosis rates showed positive correlation with age and time in captivity. These results suggest that the menus and commercial rations for Psittacidae must be carefully revised.

Maned wolf survival rate in central Brazil

Although many carnivores are of conservation concern, most are poorly studied. The maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus Illiger, 1811 is the largest South American canid with a broad distribution; however, the largest portion of its range is in the Brazilian Cerrado savannah, where due to intensive agricultural expansion, it is threatened by habitat loss. Maned wolf population trends are virtually unknown. We analyzed radio telemetry data from a 13-year study in Emas National Park, central Brazil, with Burnham`s live recapture/dead recovery models in the program MARK to obtain the first analytically sound estimate of the apparent maned wolf survival rate. We constructed 16 candidate models including variation in survival rate and resighting probability associated with an individual`s sex or age and year of study. Apparent adult survival rate throughout the study ranged from 0.28 (se=0.08) to 0.97 (se=0.06). There was no evidence for sex specificity but strong support for time variation. Model weights supported an age effect and the subadult survival rate was 0.63 (se=0.15). Results indicate similar life patterns for male and female maned wolves and similar mortality risks for adults and subadults in the study area. The observed temporal fluctuations of adult survival rate are important for population dynamics as they decrease average population growth rates. Population dynamics are central for conservation planning and our results are an important step towards a better understanding of the maned wolf`s ecology.

Willingness to pay for different degrees of abundance of elephants

This paper presents an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to determine how the willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of Asian elephants varies with hypothetical variations in their population. Results from a CVM survey of a sample of urban residents in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka are used for this purpose. We find, consistent with the basic principles of consumer demand theory, the marginal change in the respondents’ WTP amounts is positive but appears to diminish in parallel to the increases in the current wild elephant population (CWEP). In contrast to theoretical expectations, however, we find that the WTP for preserving this species increases at an increasing rate in relation to decreases in the CWEP. This is probably because respondents perceive that extinction becomes more imminent as the abundance of the elephant is reduced and therefore it becomes more urgent to act. However, this adds a new complication to the interpretation of the WTP findings.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Public choice of species for the ark: Phylogenetic similarity and preferred wildlife species for survival

Humans play a role in deciding the fate of species in the current extinction wave. Because of the previous Similarity Principle, physical attractiveness and likeability, it has been argued that public choice favours the survival of species that satisfy these criteria at the expense of other species. This paper empirically tests this argument by considering a hypothetical ‘Ark’ situation. Surveys of 204 members of the Australian public inquired whether they are in favour of the survival of each of 24 native mammal, bird and reptile species (prior to and after information provision about each species). The species were ranked by percentage of ‘yes’ votes received. Species composition by taxon in various fractions of the ranking was determined. If the previous Similarity Principle holds, mammals should rank highly and dominate the top fractions of animals saved in the hierarchical list. We find that although mammals would be over-represented in the ‘Ark’, birds and reptiles are unlikely to be excluded when social choice is based on numbers ‘voting’ for the survival of each species. Support for the previous Similarity Principle is apparent particularly after information provision. Public policy implications of this are noted and recommendations are given.

Evaluation of proximal caries in images resulting from different modes of radiographic digitalization

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the performances of observers in diagnosing proximal caries in digital images obtained from digital bitewing radiographs using two scanners and four digital cameras in Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) and tagged image file format (TIFF) files, and comparing them with the original conventional radiographs. Method: In total, 56 extracted teeth were radiographed with Kodak Insight film (Eastman Kodak, Rochester, NY) in a Kaycor Yoshida X-ray device (Kaycor X-707;Yoshida Dental Manufacturing Co., Tokyo, Japan) operating at 70 kV and 7 mA with an exposure time of 0.40 s. The radiographs were obtained and scanned by CanonScan D646U (Canon USA Inc., Newport News, VA) and Genius ColorPage HR7X (KYE Systems Corp. America, Doral, FL) scanners, and by Canon Powershot G2 (Canon USA Inc.), Canon RebelXT (Canon USA Inc.), Nikon Coolpix 8700 (Nikon Inc., Melville, NY), and Nikon D70s (Nikon Inc.) digital cameras in JPEG and TIFF formats. Three observers evaluated the images. The teeth were then observed under the microscope in polarized light for the verification of the presence and depth of the carious lesions. Results: The probability of no diagnosis ranged from 1.34% (Insight film) to 52.83% (CanonScan/JPEG). The sensitivity ranged from 0.24 (Canon RebelXT/JPEG) to 0.53 (Insight film), the specificity ranged from 0.93 (Nikon Coolpix/JPEG, Canon Powershot/TIFF, Canon RebelXT/JPEG and TIFF) to 0.97 (CanonScan/TIFF and JPEG) and the accuracy ranged from 0.82 (Canon RebelXT/JPEG) to 0.91 (CanonScan/JPEG). Conclusion: The carious lesion diagnosis did not change in either of the file formats (JPEG and TIFF) in which the images were saved for any of the equipment used. Only the CanonScan scanner did not have adequate performance in radiography digitalization for caries diagnosis and it is not recommended for this purpose. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2011) 40, 338-343. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/67185962

The metamorphosis of lambda-fold 4-wheel systems into lambda-fold 4-cycle systems

A 4-wheel is a simple graph on 5 vertices with 8 edges, formed by taking a 4-cycle and joining a fifth vertex (the centre of the 4-wheel) to each of the other four vertices. A lambda -fold 4-wheel system of order n is an edge-disjoint decomposition of the complete multigraph lambdaK(n) into 4-wheels. Here, with five isolated possible exceptions when lambda = 2, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a lambda -fold 4-wheel system of order n to be transformed into a lambda -fold Ccyde system of order n by removing the centre vertex from each 4-wheel, and its four adjacent edges (retaining the 4-cycle wheel rim), and reassembling these edges adjacent to wheel centres into 4-cycles.

A fuzzy max-flow min-cut theorem

Interval-valued versions of the max-flow min-cut theorem and Karp-Edmonds algorithm are developed and provide robustness estimates for flows in networks in an imprecise or uncertain environment. These results are extended to networks with fuzzy capacities and flows. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Anisotropy-based performance analysis of linear discrete time invariant control systems

The anisotropic norm of a linear discrete-time-invariant system measures system output sensitivity to stationary Gaussian input disturbances of bounded mean anisotropy. Mean anisotropy characterizes the degree of predictability (or colouredness) and spatial non-roundness of the noise. The anisotropic norm falls between the H-2 and H-infinity norms and accommodates their loss of performance when the probability structure of input disturbances is not exactly known. This paper develops a method for numerical computation of the anisotropic norm which involves linked Riccati and Lyapunov equations and an associated special type equation.