986 resultados para Estimated parameters
Resumo:
应用中频感应提拉法生长出掺杂浓度为2%原子分数的Sm:GdVO4晶体,研究了室温下c轴方向Sm:GdVO4晶体的吸收和荧光光谱。通过J-O理论计算出强度参数(Ωt),同时计算了对应于4G5/2能级的自发跃迁几率、荧光分支比和辐射寿命。通过荧光光谱计算了对应于566、604和646nm三个发射峰对应的发射截面,结果表明,Sm:GdVO4在604nm的发射截面最大,是掺Sm:YAP在607nm处发射截面的4.4倍。
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Von Bertalanffy's growth curve parameters K, L∞ and t'o have been estimated for female Penaeus duorarum by modal progression analysis, using the "successive maximums method" of Gheno and Le Guen (1968) for the polymodal size frequency curves analysis and the Tomlinson and Abrahamson's least squares method for parameters computations. For the male the authors used an original method to get an age/length key. The parameters were calculated by Gulland's graphical method (1969).
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Nos diversos segmentos da Geotecnia e em especial na área de fundações, o engenheiro se depara com uma série de incertezas. Algumas destas incertezas são inerentes à variabilidade local do solo, às condições de carregamento, aos efeitos do tempo, às diferenças nos processos executivos, erros de sondagens, que influenciam diretamente a estimativa da capacidade de carga da fundação, seja por ocasião de seu carregamento estático, seja durante ou logo após a cravação. O objetivo desta dissertação é a adaptação, a estacas em terra (onshore), de um procedimento concebido originalmente para emprego em estacas offshore, que trata da atualização da estimativa da resistência durante a cravação, com base em registros documentados durante a execução. Neste procedimento a atualização é feita através da aplicação dos conceitos da análise Bayesiana, assumindo que os parâmetros da distribuição probabilística utilizada sejam variáveis randômicas. A incerteza dos parâmetros é modelada por distribuições a priori e a posteriori. A distribuição a posteriori é calculada pela atualização da distribuição a priori, utilizando uma função de máxima verossimilhança, que contém a observação obtida dos registros de cravação. O procedimento é aplicado a um conjunto de estacas de um extenso estaqueamento executado na Zona Oeste do Rio de Janeiro. As estimativas atualizadas são posteriormente comparadas aos resultados dos ensaios de carregamento dinâmico. Várias aplicações podem surgir com o emprego deste procedimento, como a seleção das estacas que, por apresentarem reduzido valor de estimativa atualizada de resistência, ou uma maior incerteza desta estimativa, devam ser submetidas a provas de carga. A extensão deste estudo a diferentes tipos de estacas em perfis de solo de natureza distintos poderá levar ao desenvolvimento de sistemas mais adequados de controle de execução, capazes de identificar as principais incertezas presentes nos diferentes tipos de execução de estacas, contribuindo assim para a otimização de futuros projetos de fundações.
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We investigate the laser damage behaviour of an electron-beam-deposited TiO2 monolayer at different process parameters. The optical properties, chemical composition, surface defects, absorption and laser-induced damage threshold (LIDT) of Elms are measured. It is found that TiO2 Elms with the minimum absorption and the highest LIDT can be fabricated using a TiO2 starting material after annealing. LIDT is mainly related to absorption and is influenced by the non-stoichiometric defects for TiO2 films. Surface defects show no evident effects on LIDT in this experiment.
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Temperature-sensitive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPA) nanohydrogels were synthesized by nanoemulsion polymerization in water-in-oil systems. Several cross-linking degrees and the incorporation of acrylic acid as comonomer at different concentrations were tested to produce nanohydrogels with a wide range of properties. The physicochemical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels, and their relationship with the swelling-collapse behaviour, were studied to evaluate the suitability of PNIPA nanoparticles as smart delivery systems (for active packaging). The swelling-collapse transition was analyzed by the change in the optical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels using ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. The thermodynamic parameters associated with the nanohydrogels collapse were calculated using a mathematical approach based on the van't Hoff analysis, assuming a two-state equilibrium (swollen to collapsed). A mathematical model is proposed to predict both the thermally induced collapse, and the collapse induced by the simultaneous action of two factors (temperature and pH, or temperature and organic solvent concentration). Finally, van't Hoff analysis was compared with differential scanning calorimetry. The results obtained allow us to solve the problem of determining the molecular weight of the structural repeating unit in cross-linked NIPA polymers, which, as we show, can be estimated from the ratio of the molar heat capacity (obtained from the van't Hoff analysis) to the specific heat capacity (obtained from calorimetric measurements).
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Estima-se que a prevalência global da população mundial com hepatite C é de 3%. Pouco se sabe sobre a resposta ao tratamento com respeito à resistência viral. Algumas mutações no fragmento de 109 aminoácidos da NS5B são associadas com resistência ao interferon (IFN) e ribavirina (RBV). Estudos moleculares e clínicos identificaram fatores associados com o hospedeiro e vírus relacionados associada com a resposta ao tratamento, tal como o gene que codifica a IL-28B. Este estudo foi dividido em duas fases, cujos objetivos foram caracterizar a frequência de mutações que conferem resistência ao HCV e avaliar a relevância das mutações em pacientes Respondedores (R) ou Não Respondedores (NR) ao tratamento e caracterizar geneticamente as populações sobre polimorfismos genéticos nos SNPs da IL-28B em relação ao prognóstico da resposta ao tratamento. As amostras dos pacientes foram submetidas a testes de genotipagem e carga viral. As sequências geradas foram comparadas no BLAST e no banco de dados Los Alamos HCV. Realizamos o alinhamento das sequências homólogas e as mutações identificadas. Com base no genótipo e carga viral determinamos a classificação dos pacientes de acordo com a resposta à terapia. O DNA genômico foi isolado a partir de sangue periférico para a realização da tipagem de SNPs de IL-28B. A metodologia utilizada foi de PCR em tempo real utilizando sondas TaqMan SNP específico. A análise dos dados foi realizada utilizando GraphPad Prism com qui-quadrado, risco relativo (RR), Odds Ratio (OR) e intervalo de confiança de 95%, com um nível de significância de P <0,05. Foi encontrado na primeira fase deste estudo uma taxa significativa mutações associadas ao tratamento nas amostras estudadas. A prevalência de mutações associadas à resistência ao IFN e RBV bem como a novos medicamentos antivirais localizados no fragmento de 109 aminoácidos da NS5B foi examinado em 69 indivíduos infectados naïve no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Na segunda fase, as mutações foram clinicamente relevantes. Desde então, procuramos observar as diferenças entre melhor ou pior prognóstico de acordo com a imunogenética que mostrou diferenciação entre os grupos R e NR ao tratamento em relação ao prognóstico da resposta terapêutica. Quando as diferenças entre as sequências da NS5B e a resposta ao tratamento foram consideradas verificou-se que associada a mutação R254K, estava a C316N que poderia conduzir a uma não resposta à terapia no genótipo 1b. Os nossos dados também suportaram forte associação de IL-28B rs12979860, com elevada probabilidade de resposta à terapia de IFN + RBV. Nossos dados evidenciam a presença de pacientes virgens de tratamento que abrigam mutações de resistência previamente descritas na literatura. A análise dos fatores preditores de resposta virológica mostrou que a predição de boa resposta ou não ao tratamento e ainda da progressão da doença é dependente de uma importante interação entre a genética viral e a do hospedeiro. Fato este importante para que no momento de avaliação de diagnóstico e conduta terapêutica, o médico possa tomar medidas apropriadas para o tratamento de cada paciente individualmente independentemente do genótipo do HCV em questão.
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Este trabalho estima, utilizando dados trimestrais de 1999 a 2011, o impacto dinâmico de um estímulo fiscal no Brasil sobre as principais variáveis macroeconômicas Brasileiras. Na estimativa dos impactos permitiu-se que as expectativas dos agentes econômicas fossem afetadas pela existência e probabilidade de alternância de regimes (foram detectados dois regimes) na política monetária do país. Os parâmetros da regra da política monetária, nos dois regimes detectados, foram estimados através de um modelo - composto apenas pela equação da regra da política monetária - que permite uma mudança de regime Markoviana. Os parâmetros do único regime encontrado para a política fiscal foram estimados por um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (Vector Error Correction Model - VEC), composto apenas pelas variáveis pertencentes à regra da política fiscal. Os parâmetros estimados, para os diversos regimes das políticas monetária e fiscal, foram utilizados como auxiliares na calibragem de um modelo de equilíbrio geral estocástico dinâmico (MEGED), com mudanças de regime, com rigidez nominal de preços e concorrência monopolística (como em Davig e Leeper (2011)). Após a calibragem do MEGED os impactos dinâmicos de um estímulo fiscal foram obtidos através de uma rotina numérica (desenvolvida por Davig e Leeper (2006)) que permite obter o equilíbrio dinâmico do modelo resolvendo um sistema de equações de diferenças de primeira ordem expectacionais dinâmicas não lineares. Obtivemos que a política fiscal foi passiva durante todo o período analisado e que a política monetária foi sempre ativa, porém sendo em determinados momentos menos ativa. Em geral, em ambas as combinações de regimes, um choque não antecipado dos gastos do governo leva ao aumento do hiato do produto, aumento dos juros reais, redução do consumo privado e (em contradição com o resultado convencional) redução da taxa de inflação.
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Gillnet mesh selectivity parameters were estimated for juvenile blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus) by using length data from an experimental fishery-independent gillnet survey in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Length data for 1720 blacktip sharks were collected over 17 years (1994–2010) with seven mesh sizes ranging from 7.6 to 20.3 cm. Four selectivity models, a normal model assuming fixed spread, a normal model assuming that spread is proportional to mesh size, a lognormal model, and a gamma model were fitted to the data by using the SELECT (share each length’s catch total) method. Each model was run twice under separate assumptions of 1) equal fishing intensity; and 2) fishing intensity proportional to mesh size. The normal, fixed-spread selectivity curve where fishing intensity is assumed to be proportional to mesh size provided the best fit to the data according to model deviance estimates and was chosen as the best model. Results indicate that juvenile blacktip sharks are susceptible as bycatch in some commercial gillnet fisheries.
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The abundances and distributions of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem from San Diego to southern Vancouver Island, were estimated from combined acoustic and trawl surveys conducted in the spring of 2006, 2008, and 2010. Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus), and Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) were the dominant coastal pelagic fish species, in that order. Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were sampled only sporadically and therefore estimates for these species were unreliable. The estimates of sardine biomass compared well with those of the annual assessments and confirmed a declining trajectory of the “northern stock” since 2006. During the sampling period, the biomass of jack mackerel was stable or increasing, and that of Pacific mackerel was low and variable. The uncertainties in these estimates are mostly the result of spatial patchiness which increased from sardine to mackerels to anchovy and herring. Future surveys of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem should benefit from adaptive sampling based on modeled habitat; increased echosounder and trawl sampling, particularly for the most patchy and nearshore species; and directed-trawl sampling for improved species identification and estimations of their acoustic target stren
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Commercial fisheries that are managed with minimum size limits protect small fish of all ages and may affect size-selective mortality by the differential removal of fast growing fish. This differential removal may decrease the average size at age, maturation, or sexual transition of the exploited population. When fishery-independent data are not available, a comparison of life history parameters of landed with those of discarded fish (by regulation) will indicate if differential mortality is occurring with the capture of young but large fish (fast growing phenotypes). Indications of this differential size-selective mortality would include the following: the discarded portion of the target fish would have similar age ranges but smaller sizes at age, maturation, and sexual transition as that of landed fish. We examined three species with minimum size limits but different exploitation histories. The known heavily exploited species (Rhomboplites aurorubens [vermilion snapper] and Pagrus pagrus [red porgy]) show signs of this differential mortality. Their landed catch includes many young, large fish, whereas discarded fish had a similar age range and mean ages but smaller sizes at age than the landed fish. The unknown exploited species, Mycteroperca phenax (scamp), showed no signs of differential mortality due to size-selective fishing. Landed catch consisted of old, large fish and discarded scamp had little overlap in age ranges, had significantly different mean ages, and only small differences in size at age when compared to comparable data for landed fish.
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The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.
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Red bream (Beryx decadactylus) is a commercially important deep-sea benthopelagic fish with a circumglobal distribution on insular and continental slopes and seamounts. In the United States, small numbers are caught incidentally in the wreckfish (Polyprion americanus) fishery which operates off the southeastern coast, but no biological information exists for the management of the U.S. red bream population. For this study, otoliths (n=163) and gonads (n=161) were collected from commercially caught red bream between 2003 and 2008 to determine life history parameters. Specimens ranged in size from 410 to 630 mm fork length and were all determined to be mature by histological examination of the gonads. Females in spawning condition were observed from June through September, and reproductively active males were found year-round. Sectioned otoliths were difficult to interpret, but maximum age estimates were much higher than the 15 years previously reported for this species from the eastern North Atlantic based on whole-otolith analysis. Estimated ages ranged from 8 to 69 years, and a minimum lifespan of 49 years was validated by using bomb radiocarbon dating. Natural mortality was estimated at 0.06/yr. This study shows that red bream are longer lived and more vulnerable to overfishing than previously assumed and should be managed carefully to prevent overexploitation.
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This study documents validation of vertebral band-pair formation in spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) with the use of fluorochrome injection and tagging of captive and wild sharks over a 21-year period. Growth and mortality rates of T. megalopterus were also estimated and a demographic analysis of the species was conducted. Of the 23 OTC (oxytetracycline) -marked vertebrae examined (12 from captive and 11 from wild sharks), seven vertebrae (three from captive and four from wild sharks) exhibited chelation of the OTC and fluoresced under ultraviolet light. It was concluded that a single opaque and translucent band pair was deposited annually up to at least 25 years of age, the maximum age recorded. Reader precision was assessed by using an index of average percent error calculated at 5%. No significant differences were found between male and female growth patterns (P>0.05), and von Bertalanffy growth model parameters for combined sexes were estimated to be L∞=1711.07 mm TL, k=0.11/yr and t0=–2.43 yr (n=86). Natural mortality was estimated at 0.17/yr. Age at maturity was estimated at 11 years for males and 15 years for females. Results of the demographic analysis showed that the population, in the absence of fishing mortality, was stable and not significantly different from zero and particularly sensitive to overfishing. At the current age at first capture and natural mortality rate, the fishing mortality rate required to result in negative population growth was low at F>0.004/ yr. Elasticity analysis revealed that juvenile survival was the principal factor in explaining variability in population growth rate.