Integration or a Greek tragedy?: How crisis spillovers affect Central and Eastern European States

Tutkielma siitä, miten Euroopan entisten sosialistivaltioiden markkinoiden integroituminen on edistynyt Kreikan ja EMU-alueen kanssa euron käyttöönoton ajalta. Tutkimus vertaa maiden markkinoiden reaktioita Kreikasta ja EMU-alueelta kantautuviin sokkeihin ennen ja jälkeen vuonna 2007 alkanutta kriisiä.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Fe y esperanza : women's road to leadership and ministry in the Lutheran church of El Salvador 1952-2009

The Lutheran Church of El Salvador made a decision, in 1986, to open the ministry to women. How was it possible in the midst of a Latin American macho culture and after having been influenced by the theologically conservative, North American mission work? This research examines the kinds of internal and external factors which led women to leadership and ministry, and the context in which this development occurred. The roles of women have been scrutinised during several time periods. During 1952-1974 the focus was on women as missionary wives and fundadoras (founding mothers). Women’s roles as laywomen grew in 1975-1985. After the outburst of the civil war in 1980, women advanced to lay leaders. The ministry was opened for women and the first deacon pastors were installed in 1986 and the first presbyter pastors were ordained in 1994. In 2009, more women than ever were working in different levels – from laywomen to leaders – in the Lutheran Church of El Salvador. The research shows that the reasons for the development and changes concerning women’s positions and roles lie in the impact of significant individuals, liberation theology, the feminist and women’s movement, civil war and the theology of life.

Phenology, fruit set and dispersal of Cordia multispicata Cham., an important weed shrub of abandoned pastures in eastern Amazonia

ABSTRACT - (Phenology, fruit set and dispersal of Cordia multispicata Cham., an important weed shrub of abandoned pastures in eastern Amazonia). The reproductive ecology of the distylous tropical shrub Cordia multispicata was studied in an abandoned pasture in Paragominas County , Pará state, Brazil. It is a common species in the Amazon basin where it occurs as a weed in open and disturbed habitats. C. multispicata has many flowers per inflorescence (85 ± 12) but 84% abort before fertilization. Flowering occurs throughout the year. Fruits are small, with a red fleshy pericarp (skin-pulp) attractive to birds. Fruit set is lower during the dry season (less than 30%) and higher during the rainy season when there are many visits of insects to the flowers. Fruiting has a peak between the end of the dry season and the middle of the rainy season. Nineteen bird species were observed foraging for the fruits of C. multispicata, and 79% of those species can be considered as potential dispersal agents. The efficient seed dispersal and aggregated spatial distribution associated with some characteristics of the dispersors greatly contributed to the success of this species in abandoned pastures of eastern Amazonia.

Seed predation of Virola bicuhyba (Schott) Warb. (Myristicaceae) in the Atlantic forest of south-eastern Brazil

Seed predation of Virola bicuhyba (Myristicaceae) was studied in an area of Atlantic forest in south-eastern Brazil, with the objective of testing the Janzen-Connell model. The predation of seeds was evaluated at three different distances from the parent tree for two classes of predators: invertebrates and vertebrates. The method of exclosure plots (closed plots) and open control plots was used, distributed at 5, 15 and 25 m from the trunk of each adult fruiting tree of V. bicuhyba. In Experiment 1, 1,200 seeds were used and, in Experiment 2, 1,440 seeds. Both experiments did not agree with Janzen-Connell model, as seed predation by invertebrates and vertebrates was independent of the distance from the parent tree. Seed predation rate was high, however the impact of predation by vertebrates was higher than by invertebrates, indicating that it is the main cause of seed mortality.

Population structure of Eschweilera coriacea (DC.) S. A. Mori in forest fragments in eastern Brazilian Amazonia

The population structure of a common canopy tree was examined in three sites to investigate the possible effects of forest fragmentation in eastern Amazonia. Evidence for the escape hypothesis of differential seed/seedling survival was evaluated. Two 1 ha plots were established at each site and all individuals of Eschweilera coriacea (DC.) S. A. Mori over 1 m tall were tagged, measured and mapped. Smaller individuals were recorded in the same way within subplots. Mature individuals were abundant at all sites with densities of 32-52 ha-1. The species exhibited substantial regeneration, although total population density varied fourfold among sites (1,256-4,805 individuals ha-1). Overall, juveniles were clumped while adults were randomly distributed. The difference between the dispersion pattern of adults and juveniles supported the escape hypothesis. However, no difference in population structure among sites could be related to the forest fragmentation.

A map of the eastern part of the Roman Empire

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Map of a part of eastern Asia to show the commercial position of the productive coal fields of Yesso, Japan

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Brazil : River Pará (the eastern branch of the R. Amazona)

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Russian and Eastern European Dynamic Conditional Correlations in light of the Russian crisis of 2014-2015

This thesis studies the impact of the latest Russian crisis on global markets, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. The results are compared to other shocks and crises over the last twenty years to see how significant they have been. The cointegration process of Central and Eastern European financial markets is also reviewed and updated. Using three separate conditional correlation GARCH models, the latest crisis is not found to have initiated similar surges in conditional correlations to previous crises over the last two decades. Market cointegration for Central and Eastern Europe is found to have stalled somewhat after initial correlation increases post EU accession.