Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Generation in Europe

Studies have shown that large geographical spreading can reduce the wind power variability and smooth production. It is frequently assumed that storage and interconnection can manage wind power variability and are totally flexible. However, constraints do exist. In the future more and more electricity will be provided by renewable energy sources and more electricity interconnectors will be built between European Union (EU) countries, as outlines in many of the Projects of Common Interests. It is essential to understand the correlation of wind generation throughout Europe considering power system constraints. In this study the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power production across several countries is examined in order to understand how “the wind ‘travels’ across Europe”. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation from ten EU countries is analysed to investigate the geographic diversity and time scales influence on correlation of wind power variations. Results are then compared with two other studies and show similar general characteristics of correlation between EU country pairs to identify opportunities for storage optimisation, power system operations, and trading.

Optimized operations of Distributed Renewable Energy Sources in Smart Grid

The renewable energy sources (RES) will play a vital role in the future power needs in view of the increasing demand of electrical energy and depletion of fossil fuel with its environmental impact. The main constraints of renewable energy (RE) generation are high capital investment, fluctuation in generation and requirement of vast land area. Distributed RE generation on roof top of buildings will overcome these issues to some extent. Any system will be feasible only if it is economically viable and reliable. Economic viability depends on the availability of RE and requirement of energy in specific locations. This work is directed to examine the economic viability of the system at desired location and demand.

An active vision system integrating fast and slow processes

[EN]This paper describes an Active Vision System whose design assumes a distinction between fast or reactive and slow or background processes. Fast processes need to operate in cycles with critical timeouts that may affect system stability. While slow processes, though necessary, do not compromise system stability if its execution is delayed. Based on this simple taxonomy, a control architecture has been proposed and a prototype implemented that is able to track people in real-time with a robotic head while trying to identify the target. In this system, the tracking module is considered as the reactive part of the system while person identification is considered a background task.

Electric Vehicles as Grid Resources

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models

The resilience of a social-ecological system is measured by its ability to retain core functionality when subjected to perturbation. Resilience is contextually dependent on the state of system components, the complex interactions among these components, and the timing, location, and magnitude of perturbations. The stability landscape concept provides a useful framework for considering resilience within the specified context of a particular social-ecological system but has proven difficult to operationalize. This difficulty stems largely from the complex, multidimensional nature of the systems of interest and uncertainty in system response. Agent-based models are an effective methodology for understanding how cross-scale processes within and across social and ecological domains contribute to overall system resilience. We present the results of a stylized model of agricultural land use in a small watershed that is typical of the Midwestern United States. The spatially explicit model couples land use, biophysical models, and economic drivers with an agent-based model to explore the effects of perturbations and policy adaptations on system outcomes. By applying the coupled modeling approach within the resilience and stability landscape frameworks, we (1) estimate the sensitivity of the system to context-specific perturbations, (2) determine potential outcomes of those perturbations, (3) identify possible alternative states within state space, (4) evaluate the resilience of system states, and (5) characterize changes in system-scale resilience brought on by changes in individual land use decisions.

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Développement et caractérisation de nouveaux nanocomposites polymères électriquement conductueurs pour plaques bipolaires de piles à combustible à membrane échangeuse de protons, PEMFC

Face à la diminution des ressources énergétiques et à l’augmentation de la pollution des énergies fossiles, de très nombreuses recherches sont actuellement menées pour produire de l’énergie propre et durable et pour réduire l’utilisation des sources d’énergies fossiles caractérisées par leur production intrinsèque des gaz à effet de serre. La pile à combustible à membrane échangeuse de protons (PEMFC) est une technologie qui prend de plus en plus d’ampleur pour produire l’énergie qui s’inscrit dans un contexte de développement durable. La PEMFC est un dispositif électrochimique qui fonctionne selon le principe inverse de l’électrolyse de l’eau. Elle convertit l’énergie de la réaction chimique entre l’hydrogène et l’oxygène (ou l’air) en puissance électrique, chaleur et eau; son seul rejet dans l’atmosphère est de la vapeur d’eau. Une pile de type PEMFC est constituée d’un empilement Électrode-Membrane-Électrode (EME) où la membrane consiste en un électrolyte polymère solide séparant les deux électrodes (l’anode et la cathode). Cet ensemble est intégré entre deux plaques bipolaires (BP) qui permettent de collecter le courant électrique et de distribuer les gaz grâce à des chemins de circulation gravés sur chacune de ses deux faces. La plupart des recherches focalisent sur la PEMFC afin d’améliorer ses performances électriques et sa durabilité et aussi de réduire son coût de production. Ces recherches portent sur le développement et la caractérisation des divers éléments de ce type de pile; y compris les éléments les plus coûteux et les plus massifs, tels que les plaques bipolaires. La conception de ces plaques doit tenir compte de plusieurs paramètres : elles doivent posséder une bonne perméabilité aux gaz et doivent combiner les propriétés de résistance mécanique, de stabilité chimique et thermique ainsi qu’une conductivité électrique élevée. Elles doivent aussi permettre d’évacuer adéquatement la chaleur générée dans le cœur de la cellule. Les plaques bipolaires métalliques sont pénalisées par leur faible résistance à la corrosion et celles en graphite sont fragiles et leur coût de fabrication est élevé (dû aux phases d’usinage des canaux de cheminement des gaz). C’est pourquoi de nombreuses recherches sont orientées vers le développement d’un nouveau concept de plaques bipolaires. La voie la plus prometteuse est de remplacer les matériaux métalliques et le graphite par des composites à matrice polymère. Les plaques bipolaires composites apparaissent attrayantes en raison de leur facilité de mise en œuvre et leur faible coût de production mais nécessitent une amélioration de leurs propriétés électriques et mécaniques, d’où l’objectif principal de cette thèse dans laquelle on propose: i) un matériau nanocomposite développé par extrusion bi-vis qui est à base de polymères chargés d’additifs solides conducteurs, incluant des nanotubes de carbone. ii) fabriquer un prototype de plaque bipolaire à partir de ces matériaux en utilisant le procédé de compression à chaud avec un refroidissement contrôlé. Dans ce projet, deux polymères thermoplastiques ont été utilisés, le polyfluorure de vinylidène (PVDF) et le polyéthylène téréphtalate (PET). Les charges électriquement conductrices sélectionnées sont: le noir de carbone, le graphite et les nanotubes de carbones. La combinaison de ces charges conductrices a été aussi étudiée visant à obtenir des formulations optimisées. La conductivité électrique à travers l’épaisseur des échantillons développés ainsi que leurs propriétés mécaniques ont été soigneusement caractérisées. Les résultats ont montré que non seulement la combinaison entre les charges conductrices influence les propriétés électriques et mécaniques des prototypes développés, mais aussi la distribution de ces charges (qui de son côté dépend de leur nature, leur taille et leurs propriétés de surface), avait aidé à améliorer les propriétés visées. Il a été observé que le traitement de surface des nanotubes de carbone avait aidé à l’amélioration de la conductivité électrique et la résistance mécanique des prototypes. Le taux de cristallinité généré durant le procédé de moulage par compression des prototypes de plaques bipolaires ainsi que la cinétique de cristallisation jouent un rôle important pour l’optimisation des propriétés électriques et mécaniques visées.

Least Median Of Squares Estimation In Power Systems

Static state estimators currently in use in power systems are prone to masking by multiple bad data. This is mainly because the power system regression model contains many leverage points; typically they have a cluster pattern. As reported recently in the statistical literature, only high breakdown point estimators are robust enough to cope with gross errors corrupting such a model. This paper deals with one such estimator, the least median of squares estimator, developed by Rousseeuw in 1984. The robustness of this method is assessed while applying it to power systems. Resampling methods are developed, and simulation results for IEEE test systems discussed. © 1991 IEEE.

Gestão de energia em ambiente industrial

A Sociedade da Água de Luso, S.A., localizada no concelho de Mealhada, é uma empresa do setor do engarrafamento de águas minerais naturais, de nascente e de consumo humano. Esta realiza as suas atividades, tendo em consideração a eficiência energética, ao longo do seu processo produtivo. Desta forma, o trabalho desenvolvido teve como objetivo o acompanhamento da implementação do sistema de monitorização e recolha de dados, que posteriormente foi útil na redução dos consumos energéticos (consumo de ar comprimido). Para além disto, também foi proposta uma medida de eficiência energética que visa a redução de energia elétrica na área da iluminação. O sistema de monitorização e recolha de dados e a criação de uma equipa de redução do consumo de ar comprimido permitiram a identificação das áreas de atuação, a monitorização das metas estipuladas no âmbito da equipa e a detecção de anomalias. A medida de eficiência energética aplicada incide na substituição de lâmpadas fluorescentes tubulares T8 por lâmpadas fluorescentes tubulares T5. Assim, a implementação deste sistema e a aplicação das medidas de eficiência energética na rede de ar comprimido no âmbito da equipa permitiram uma redução de 0,03 kWh/hL o que significa uma poupança de 5.600 € em quinze semanas. Ao nível da iluminação as medidas sugeridas permitem uma redução de 8.945 kWh/ano o que corresponde a uma poupança de 1.055 €/ano.

Minimizar o sobrecusto da redução da capacidade de interligação com recurso ao counter-trading

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de energia

Sistema de emulação de aerogeradores para aplicação em geração distribuída de energia elétrica

Power generation from alternative sources is at present the subject of numerous research and development in science and industry. Wind energy stands out in this scenario as one of the most prominent alternative in the generation of electricity, by its numerous advantages. In research works, computer reproduction and experimental behavior of a wind turbine are very suitable tools for the development and study of new technologies and the use of wind potential of a given region. These tools generally are desired to include simulation of mechanical and electrical parameters that directly affect the energy conversion. This work presents the energy conversion process in wind systems for power generation, in order to develop a tool for wind turbine emulation testing experimental, using LabVIEW® software. The purpose of this tool is to emulate the torque developed in an axis wind turbine. The physical setup consists of a three phase induction motor and a permanent magnet synchronous generator, which are evaluated under different wind speed conditions. This tool has the objective to be flexible to other laboratory arrangements, and can be used in other wind power generation structures in real time. A modeling of the wind power system is presented, from the turbine to the electrical generator. A simulation tool is developed using Matlab/Simulink® with the purpose to pre-validate the experiment setup. Finally, the design is implemented in a laboratory setup.

Eficiência Energética, Gestão de Energia e Integração de Renováveis em Instalações Hospitalares

A presente dissertação é o resultado de um estudo realizado entre Março de 2015 e Março de 2016 centrado no tema Eficiência Energética nos Edifícios, no âmbito da Dissertação do 2º ano do Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrotécnica – Sistemas Elétricos de Energia no Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto (ISEP). Atualmente, os edifícios são responsáveis por cerca de 40% do consumo de energia na maioria dos países da europa. Energia consumida, principalmente, no aquecimento, arrefecimento e na alimentação de aparelhos elétricos. Os hospitais, como grandes edifícios, são grandes consumidores de energia e, na maioria dos países europeus, situam-se entre os edifícios públicos menos eficientes. Neste contexto, representam um tipo de edifícios cuja atividade apresenta um potencial de poupança energético importante. O tipo de atividade aí desenvolvida, aliada às especificidades do sector da saúde, faz deste tipo de edifícios um alvo de análise e otimização energética bastante apetecível. O presente trabalho passa pelo estudo do potencial para a eficiência energética de um hospital situado na zona do Porto. Foi, inicialmente, efetuado um levantamento das necessidades energéticas, de modo a identificar os sectores prioritários de atuação. Este estudo conta com a análise dos consumos obtidos através do processo de monitorização, substituição da iluminação existente por uma mais eficiente, a instalação de painéis solares para reduzir o consumo destinado às águas quentes sanitárias, a substituição de caldeira a diesel por caldeira a biomassa, substituição de um chiller por um mais eficiente, entre outros. Os consumos registados no hospital em estudo serão comparados com um plano nacional (Eficiência Energética e Hídrica no Sistema Nacional de Saúde), para, desta forma, se perceber quais os consumos do hospital em estudo, quando comparados com outros hospitais.