On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Chromatographic recovery of chemicals from acidic biomass hydrolysates

Lignocellulosic biomasses (e.g., wood and straws) are a potential renewable source for the production of a wide variety of chemicals that could be used to replace those currently produced by petrochemical industry. This would lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions and waste amounts, and to economical savings. There are many possible pathways available for the manufacturing of chemicals from lignocellulosic biomasses. One option is to hydrolyze the cellulose and hemicelluloses of these biomasses into monosaccharides using concentrated sulfuric acid as catalyst. This process is an efficient method for producing monosaccharides which are valuable platforn chemicals. Also other valuable products are formed in the hydrolysis. Unfortunately, the concentrated acid hydrolysis has been deemed unfeasible mainly due to high chemical consumption resulting from the need to remove sulfuric acid from the obtained hydrolysates prior to the downstream processing of the monosaccharides. Traditionally, this has been done by neutralization with lime. This, however, results in high chemical consumption. In addition, the by-products formed in the hydrolysis are not removed and may, thus, hinder the monosaccharide processing. In order to improve the feasibility of the concentrated acid hydrolysis, the chemical consumption should be decreased by recycling of sulfuric acid without neutralization. Furthermore, the monosaccharides and the other products formed in the hydrolysis should be recovered selectively for efficient downstream processing. The selective recovery of the hydrolysis by-products would have additional economical benefits on the process due to their high value. In this work, the use of chromatographic fractionation for the recycling of sulfuric acid and the selective recovery of the main components from the hydrolysates formed in the concentrated acid hydrolysis was investigated. Chromatographic fractionation based on the electrolyte exclusion with gel type strong acid cation exchange resins in acid (H+) form as a stationary phase was studied. A systematic experimental and model-based study regarding the separation task at hand was conducted. The phenomena affecting the separation were determined and their effects elucidated. Mathematical models that take accurately into account these phenomena were derived and used in the simulation of the fractionation process. The main components of the concentrated acid hydrolysates (sulfuric acid, monosaccharides, and acetic acid) were included into this model. Performance of the fractionation process was investigated experimentally and by simulations. Use of different process options was also studied. Sulfuric acid was found to have a significant co-operative effect on the sorption of the other components. This brings about interesting and beneficial effects in the column operations. It is especially beneficial for the separation of sulfuric acid and the monosaccharides. Two different approaches for the modelling of the sorption equilibria were investigated in this work: a simple empirical approach and a thermodynamically consistent approach (the Adsorbed Solution theory). Accurate modelling of the phenomena observed in this work was found to be possible using the simple empirical models. The use of the Adsorbed Solution theory is complicated by the nature of the theory and the complexity of the studied system. In addition to the sorption models, a dynamic column model that takes into account the volume changes of the gel type resins as changing resin bed porosity was also derived. Using the chromatography, all the main components of the hydrolysates can be recovered selectively, and the sulfuric acid consumption of the hydrolysis process can be lowered considerably. Investigation of the performance of the chromatographic fractionation showed that the highest separation efficiency in this separation task is obtained with a gel type resin with a high crosslinking degree (8 wt. %); especially when the hydrolysates contain high amounts of acetic acid. In addition, the concentrated acid hydrolysis should be done with as low sulfuric acid concentration as possible to obtain good separation performance. The column loading and flow rate also have large effects on the performance. In this work, it was demonstrated that when recycling of the fractions obtained in the chromatographic fractionation are recycled to preceding unit operations these unit operations should included in the performance evaluation of the fractionation. When this was done, the separation performance and the feasibility of the concentrated acid hydrolysis process were found to improve considerably. Use of multi-column chromatographic fractionation processes, the Japan Organo process and the Multi-Column Recycling Chromatography process, was also investigated. In the studied case, neither of these processes could compete with the single-column batch process in the productivity. However, due to internal recycling steps, the Multi-Column Recycling Chromatography was found to be superior to the batch process when the product yield and the eluent consumption were taken into account.

Optimization and validation of the solid-liquid extraction technique for determination of picloram in soils by high performance liquid chromatography

The objective of this study was to optimize and validate the solid-liquid extraction (ESL) technique for determination of picloram residues in soil samples. At the optimization stage, the optimal conditions for extraction of soil samples were determined using univariate analysis. Ratio soil/solution extraction, type and time of agitation, ionic strength and pH of extraction solution were evaluated. Based on the optimized parameters, the following method of extraction and analysis of picloram was developed: weigh 2.00 g of soil dried and sieved through a sieve mesh of 2.0 mm pore, add 20.0 mL of KCl concentration of 0.5 mol L-1, shake the bottle in the vortex for 10 seconds to form suspension and adjust to pH 7.00, with alkaline KOH 0.1 mol L-1. Homogenate the system in a shaker system for 60 minutes and then let it stand for 10 minutes. The bottles are centrifuged for 10 minutes at 3,500 rpm. After the settlement of the soil particles and cleaning of the supernatant extract, an aliquot is withdrawn and analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography. The optimized method was validated by determining the selectivity, linearity, detection and quantification limits, precision and accuracy. The ESL methodology was efficient for analysis of residues of the pesticides studied, with percentages of recovery above 90%. The limits of detection and quantification were 20.0 and 66.0 mg kg-1 soil for the PVA, and 40.0 and 132.0 mg kg-1 soil for the VLA. The coefficients of variation (CV) were equal to 2.32 and 2.69 for PVA and TH soils, respectively. The methodology resulted in low organic solvent consumption and cleaner extracts, as well as no purification steps for chromatographic analysis were required. The parameters evaluated in the validation process indicated that the ESL methodology is efficient for the extraction of picloram residues in soils, with low limits of detection and quantification.

Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Purification and characterization of a phytoalexin elicitor from spores of the saprobe Mucor ramosissimus

Plants accumulate antimicrobial compounds (phytoalexins) in response to a wide variety of microorganisms. Mucor ramosissimus Samutsevitsch is a saprobe capable of inducing phytoalexin production in soybean cotyledons and in the leaves of tropical Rubiaceae on whose surface it has been found. In the present study, the elicitor from M. ramosissimus was partially purified and the activity compared to that of a glucan elicitor isolated from Phytophthora sojae. Optimal isolation of the elicitor (based on fungal growth, yield of spores and elicitor activity) was achieved by autoclaving spores obtained from nine day-old cultures of the fungus. The elicitor was precipitated with ethanol and purified by chromatography on an anion exchange column, which retained the elicitor, and a Concanavalin A-affinity matrix, to which the elicitor did not bind. The purification resulted in a considerable increase (six-fold) in the specific activity of the elicitor. Neutral sugar composition, analyzed by HPLC, revealed the predominance of mannose, followed by glucose and galactose, whereas colorimetric quantification showed the presence of uronic acids. GC-MS analysis of the elicitor revealed the predominance of glucuronic acid and mannose. These results suggest that fragments of mucoran-type polysaccharides are the phytoalexin elicitors present in the spores of the saprobe M. ramosissimus. Our results also indicate for the first time that soybean cotyledon tissues can recognize fragments of glucuronic-acid heteropolymers as phytoalexin elicitors.

Cyanobacterial occurrence and detection of microcystin by planar chromatography in surface water of Billings and Guarapiranga Reservoirs, SP, Brazil

Billings and Guarapiranga Reservoirs were deeply affected by environmental disturbances, which more evident consequence are the cyanobacterial blooms. Microcystins are the most common cyanotoxin in freshwaters and more than 70 types are known. Different methods for microcystins analysis in water can be used, among which ELISA and HPLC are the most frequently employed. However, less sophisticated and more economic methods can also be used. This is the case of planar chromatography (thin-layer chromatography) method previously used in cyanotoxins purification but gradually replaced by others. Posterior optimization of the microcystin chromatography conditions and because of its simplicity, rapidity, efficiency and low cost, this method is again considered an option for the analysis of microcystins and nodularins. Considering the importance of Billings and Guarapiranga Reservoirs for drinking water supplies and the few scientific data about cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in these water bodies, the aims of this work are to analyze the biodiversity of cyanobacteria in the Billings and Guarapiranga Reservoirs and the detection of dissolved microcystins in the water. It was possible to identify 17 species of cyanobacteria, 9 of them being potentially toxic. In Billings Reservoir Microcystis aeruginosa (Kützing) Kützing and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Seenayya & Subba Raju are the most common species, while in Guarapiranga Reservoir only M. aeruginosa was considered as a common species. Microcystins were detected in all Billings Reservoir samples and in only one sample from Guarapiranga Reservoir.

A single-step purification of bothropstoxin-1

Bothrops venoms are complex mixtures of components with a wide range of biological activities. Among these substances, myotoxins have been investigated by several groups. Bothropstoxin-1 (Bthtx-1) is a phospholipase A2-like basic myotoxin from Bothrops jararacussu. The purification of this component involves two chromatographic steps. Although providing a pure material, the association of these two steps is time consuming and a single-step method using high performance chromatography media would be useful. In the present study, we describe a single-step purification method for Bthtx-1. Bothrops jararacussu venom was dissolved in 1 ml buffer. After centrifugation, the supernatant was injected into a Resource-S cation exchange column connected to an FPLC system and eluted with a linear salt gradient. The complete procedure took 20 min, representing a considerable time gain when compared to a previously described method (Homsi-Brandenburgo MI et al. (1988) Toxicon, 26: 615-627). Bthtx-1 purity and identity, assessed by SDS-PAGE and N-terminal sequencing, resulted in a single band with a molecular mass of about 14 kDa and the expected sequence of the first 5 residues, S-L-F-E-L. Although the amount of protein purified after each run is lower than in the previously described method, we believe that this method may be useful for small-scale purifications.

A chromatographic method for the production of a human immunoglobulin G solution for intravenous use

Immunoglobulin G (IgG) of excellent quality for intravenous use was obtained from the cryosupernatant of human plasma by a chromatographic method based on a mixture of ion-exchange, DEAE-Sepharose FF and arginine Sepharose 4B affinity chromatography and a final purification step by Sephacryl S-300 HR gel filtration. The yield of 10 experimental batches produced was 3.5 g IgG per liter of plasma. A solvent/detergent combination of 1% Tri (n-butyl) phosphate and 1% Triton X-100 was used to inactivate lipid-coated viruses. Analysis of the final product (5% liquid IgG) based on the mean for 10 batches showed 94% monomers, 5.5% dimers and 0.5% polymers and aggregates. Anticomplementary activity was 0.3 CH50/mg IgG and prekallikrein activator levels were less than 5 IU/ml. Stability at 37ºC for 30 days in the liquid state was satisfactory. IgG was stored in flasks (2.5 g/flask) at 4 to 8ºC. All the characteristics of the product were consistent with the requirements of the 1997 Pharmacopée Européenne.

Preparation and purification of Flavobacterium heparinum chondroitinases AC and B by hydrophobic interaction chromatography

Flavobacterium heparinum is a soil bacterium that produces several mucopolysaccharidases such as heparinase, heparitinases I and II, and chondroitinases AC, B, C and ABC. The purpose of the present study was to optimize the preparation of F. heparinum chondroitinases, which are very useful tools for the identification and structural characterization of chondroitin and dermatan sulfates. We observed that during the routine procedure for cell disruption (ultrasound, 100 kHz, 5 min) some of the chondroitinase B activity was lost. Using milder conditions (2 min), most of the chondroitinase B and AC protein was solubilized and the enzyme activities were preserved. Tryptic soy broth without glucose was the best culture medium both for bacterial growth and enzyme induction. Chondroitinases AC and B were separated from each other and also from glucuronidases and sulfatases by hydrophobic interaction chromatography on HP Phenyl-Sepharose. A rapid method for screening of the column fractions was also developed based on the metachromatic shift of the color of dimethylmethylene blue.

A micromethod for quantitation of debrisoquine and 4-hydroxydebrisoquine in urine by liquid chromatography

We describe a new simple, selective and sensitive micromethod based on HPLC and fluorescence detection to measure debrisoquine (D) and 4-hydroxydebrisoquine (4-OHD) in urine for the investigation of xenobiotic metabolism by debrisoquine hydroxylase (CYP2D6). Four hundred µl of urine was required for the analysis of D and 4-OHD. Peaks were eluted at 8.3 min (4-OHD), 14.0 min (D) and 16.6 min for the internal standard, metoprolol (20 µg/ml). The 5-µm CN-reverse-phase column (Shimpack, 250 x 4.6 mm) was eluted with a mobile phase consisting of 0.25 M acetate buffer, pH 5.0, and acetonitrile (9:1, v/v) at 0.7 ml/min with detection at lexcitation = 210 nm and lemission = 290 nm. The method, validated on the basis of measurements of spiked urine, presented 3 ng/ml (D) and 6 ng/ml (4-OHD) sensitivity, 390-6240 ng/ml (D) and 750-12000 ng/ml (4-OHD) linearity, and 5.7/8.2% (D) and 5.3/8.2% (4-OHD) intra/interassay precision. The method was validated using urine of a healthy Caucasian volunteer who received one 10-mg tablet of Declinax®, po, in the morning after an overnight fast. Urine samples (diuresis of 4 or 6 h) were collected from zero to 24 h. The urinary excretion of D and 4-OHD, Fel (0-24 h), i.e., fraction of dose administered and excreted into urine, was 6.4% and 31.9%, respectively. The hydroxylation capacity index reported as metabolic ratio was 0.18 (D/4-OHD) for the person investigated and can be compared to reference limits of >12.5 for poor metabolizers (PM) and <12.5 for extensive metabolizers (EM). In parallel, the recovery ratio (RR), another hydroxylation capacity index, was 0.85 (4-OHD: SD + 4-OHD) versus reference limits of RR <0.12 for PM and RR >0.12 for EM. The healthy volunteer was considered to be an extensive metabolizer on the basis of the debrisoquine test.

Do retail investors use technical analysis? Evidence from Stuttgart stock exchange.

Tutkielma käyttää automaattista kuviontunnistusalgoritmia ja yleisiä kahden liukuvan keskiarvon leikkauspiste –sääntöjä selittääkseen Stuttgartin pörssissä toimivien yksityissijoittajien myynti-osto –epätasapainoa ja siten vastatakseen kysymykseen ”käyttävätkö yksityissijoittajat teknisen analyysin menetelmiä kaupankäyntipäätöstensä perustana?” Perusolettama sijoittajien käyttäytymisestä ja teknisen analyysin tuottavuudesta tehtyjen tutkimusten perusteella oli, että yksityissijoittajat käyttäisivät teknisen analyysin metodeja. Empiirinen tutkimus, jonka aineistona on DAX30 yhtiöiden data vuosilta 2009 – 2013, ei tuottanut riittävän selkeää vastausta tutkimuskysymykseen. Heikko todistusaineisto näyttää kuitenkin osoittavan, että yksityissijoittajat muuttavat kaupankäyntikäyttäytymistänsä eräiden kuvioiden ja leikkauspistesääntöjen ohjastamaan suuntaan.

Determination of macromolecular exchange and PO2 in the microcirculation: a simple system for in vivo fluorescence and phosphorescence videomicroscopy

We have developed a system with two epi-illumination sources, a DC-regulated lamp for transillumination and mechanical switches for rapid shift of illumination and detection of defined areas (250-750 µm²) by fluorescence and phosphorescence videomicroscopy. The system permits investigation of standard microvascular parameters, vascular permeability as well as intra- and extravascular PO2 by phosphorescence quenching of Pd-meso-tetra (4-carboxyphenyl) porphine (PORPH). A Pechan prism was used to position a defined region over the photomultiplier and TV camera. In order to validate the system for in vivo use, in vitro tests were performed with probes at concentrations that can be found in microvascular studies. Extensive in vitro evaluations were performed by filling glass capillaries with solutions of various concentrations of FITC-dextran (diluted in blood and in saline) mixed with different amounts of PORPH. Fluorescence intensity and phosphorescence decay were determined for each mixture. FITC-dextran solutions without PORPH and PORPH solutions without FITC-dextran were used as references. Phosphorescence decay curves were relatively unaffected by the presence of FITC-dextran at all concentrations tested (0.1 µg/ml to 5 mg/ml). Likewise, fluorescence determinations were performed in the presence of PORPH (0.05 to 0.5 mg/ml). The system was successfully used to study macromolecular extravasation and PO2 in the rat mesentery circulation under controlled conditions and during ischemia-reperfusion.

Comparison of the quantification of caffeine in human plasma by gas chromatography and ELISA

In the present study we evaluated the precision of the ELISA method to quantify caffeine in human plasma and compared the results with those obtained by gas chromatography. A total of 58 samples were analyzed by gas chromatography using a nitrogen-phosphorus detector and routine techniques. For the ELISA test, the samples were diluted to obtain a concentration corresponding to 50% of the absorbance of the standard curve. To determine whether the proximity between the I50 of the standard curve and that of the sample would bring about a more precise result, the samples were divided into three blocks according to the criterion of difference, in modulus, of the I50 of the standard curve and of the I50 of the sample. The samples were classified into three groups. The first was composed of 20 samples with I50 up to 1.5 ng/ml, the second consisted of 21 samples with I50 ranging from 1.51 to 3 ng/ml, and the third of 17 samples with I50 ranging from 3.01 to 13 ng/ml. The determination coefficient (R² = 0.999) showed that the data obtained by gas chromatography represented a reliable basis. The results obtained by ELISA were also reliable, with an estimated Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.82 between the two methods. This coefficient for the different groups (0.88, 0.79 and 0.49 for groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively) showed greater reliability for the test with dilutions closer to I50.

Inhibition of the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ pump with thapsigargin to estimate the contribution of Na+-Ca2+ exchange to ventricular myocyte relaxation

Relaxation in the mammalian ventricle is initiated by Ca2+ removal from the cytosol, which is performed by three main transport systems: sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase (SR-A), Na+-Ca2+ exchanger (NCX) and the so-called slow mechanisms (sarcolemmal Ca2+-ATPase and mitochondrial Ca2+ uptake). To estimate the relative contribution of each system to twitch relaxation, SR Ca2+ accumulation must be selectively inhibited, usually by the application of high caffeine concentrations. However, caffeine has been reported to often cause changes in membrane potential due to NCX-generated inward current, which compromises the reliability of its use. In the present study, we estimated integrated Ca2+ fluxes carried by SR-A, NCX and slow mechanisms during twitch relaxation, and compared the results when using caffeine application (Cf-NT) and an electrically evoked twitch after inhibition of SR-A with thapsigargin (TG-TW). Ca2+ transients were measured in 20 isolated adult rat ventricular myocytes with indo-1. For transients in which one or more transporters were inhibited, Ca2+ fluxes were estimated from the measured free Ca2+ concentration and myocardial Ca2+ buffering characteristics. NCX-mediated integrated Ca2+ flux was significantly higher with TG-TW than with Cf-NT (12 vs 7 µM), whereas SR-dependent flux was lower with TG-TW (77 vs 81 µM). The relative participations of NCX (12.5 vs 8% with TG-TW and Cf-NT, respectively) and SR-A (85 vs 89.5% with TG-TW and Cf-NT, respectively) in total relaxation-associated Ca2+ flux were also significantly different. We thus propose TG-TW as a reliable alternative to estimate NCX contribution to twitch relaxation in this kind of analysis.