Keeping a sense of proportion but losing all perspective: a critique of Gorard's notion of the 'Politician's Error'

In 1999 Stephen Gorard published an article in this journal in which he provided a trenchant critique of what he termed the `politician's error' in analysing differences in educational attainment. The main consequence of this error, he argued, has been the production of misleading findings in relation to trends in educational performance over time that have, in turn, led to misguided and potentially damaging policy interventions. By using gender differences in educational attainment as a case study, this article begins by showing how Gorard's notion of the politician's error has been largely embraced and adopted uncritically by those within the field. However, the article goes on to demonstrate how Gorard's own preferred way of analysing such differences – by calculating and comparing proportionate changes in performance between groups – is also inherently problematic and can lead to the production of equally misleading findings. The article will argue that there is a need to develop a more reliable and valid way of measuring trends in educational performance over time and will show that one of the simplest ways of doing this is to make use of existing, and widely accepted, measures of effect size.

Error sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.

Surface plasmon polariton propagation length: A direct comparison using photon scanning tunneling microscopy and attenuated total reflection

The propagation of surface plasmon polaritons (SPP's) is studied using a photon scanning tunneling microscope (PSTM) and conventional attenuated total reflection (ATR). The PSTM experiment uses localized (focused beam) launching or SPP's at a wavelength of 632.8 nm. Propagation of the SPP is observed as an exponentially decaying tail beyond the launch site acid the 1/e propagation length is measured directly for a series of Ag films of different thicknesses. The ATR measurements are used to characterize the thin film optical and thickness parameters, revealing, notably, the presence of a contaminating adlayer of Ag2S of typical dielectric function, 8.7 + i2.7, and thickness 1-2 nm. Values of the SPP propagation length, based on the ATR- derived film parameters used in the four-media implicit SPP dispersion relation, show very good agreement with those based on the PSTM images for the case of undercoupled or optimally coupled SPP modes. The observed propagation lengths are quantitatively analyzed taking explicit account of additional intrinsic damping due to the growth of the Ag2S layer and of reradiation of the SPP back into the prism outside the launch site. Finally, the PSTM images show excellent SPP beam confinement in the original propagation direction.

Surface plasmon polariton propagation across a gentle silver step

Surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) are excited with light of wavelength lambda (1) = 632.8 nm on or near a gentle Ag/Ag step structure using focused beam, prism coupling and detected using a bare, sharpened fibre tip. The tip-sample separation is controlled by means of an evanescent optical field at wavelength lambda (2) = 543.5 nm in a photon scanning tunnelling microscope (PSTM). The SPP propagation properties are first characterised on both the thin and thick sections of the Ag film structure either side of the step, both macroscopically, using attenuated total reflection, and microscopically from the PSTM images; the two techniques yield very good agreement. It is found that the SPP propagation length is similar to 10-11 mum across the step in each direction (thick to thin and vice versa) as observed in the PSTM images. Thus, with reference to the propagation lengths of 14.2 and 11.7 mum for the thick and thin planar parts of the Ag film respectively, it is concluded that the SPPs negotiate the step reasonably successfully. Importantly, also, it is shown that images may be produced, displaying SPPs with either an artificially enhanced (similar to 15-20 mum) or truncated (5-8 mum) propagation length across the step. Consideration of such images leads us to suggest the possibility that the photon tunnelling occurs in a local water environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of electron-beam propagation through preionized dense foam plasmas

The transport of an intense electron-beam produced by the Vulcan petawatt laser through dense plasmas has been studied by imaging with high resolution the optical emission due to electron transit through the rear side of coated foam targets. It is observed that the MeV-electron beam undergoes strong filamentation and the filaments organize themselves in a ringlike structure. This behavior has been modeled using particle-in-cell simulations of the laser-plasma interaction as well as of the transport of the electron beam through the preionized plasma. In the simulations the filamentary structures are reproduced and attributed to the Weibel instability.