Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Biomarker distributions in surface sediments from the Kara and Laptev Seas (Arctic Ocean)

Studies of spatial and temporal changes in modern and past sea-ice occurrence may help to understand the processes controlling the recent decrease in Arctic sea-ice cover. Here, we determined concentrations of IP25, a novel biomarker proxy for sea ice developed in recent years, phytoplankton-derived biomarkers (brassicasterol and dinosterol) and terrigenous biomarkers (campesterol and ß-sitosterol) in the surface sediments from the Kara and Laptev seas to estimate modern spatial (seasonal) sea-ice variability and organic-matter sources. C25-HBI dienes and trienes were determined as additional paleoenvironmental proxies in the study area. Furthermore, a combined phytoplankton-IP25 biomarker approach (PIP25 index) is used to reconstruct the modern sea-ice distribution more quantitatively. The terrigenous biomarkers reach maximum concentrations in the coastal zones and estuaries, reflecting the huge discharge by the major rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena. Maxima in phytoplankton biomarkers indicating increased primary productivity were found in the seasonally ice-free central part of the Kara and Laptev seas. Neither IP25 nor PIP25, however, show a clear and simple correlation with satellite sea-ice distribution in our study area due to the complex environmental conditions in our study area and the transportation process of sea-ice diatom in the water column. Differences in the diene/IP25 and triene/IP25 ratios point to different sources of these HBIs and different environmental conditions. The diene/IP25 ratio seems to correlate positively with sea-surface temperature, while negatively with salinity distributions.

Measurement of hydraulic conductivity distributions : a manual of practice /

Mode of access: Internet.

Dietary consumption distributions of selected food groups for the U.S. population.

"EPA 560/11-80-012"--Cover.