A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Assessment of land use and land cover changes during the last 50 years in oases and surrounding rangelands of Xinjiang, NW China

An analysis of historical Corona images, Landsat images, recent radar and Google Earth® images was conducted to determine land use and land cover changes of oases settlements and surrounding rangelands at the fringe of the Altay Mountains from 1964 to 2008. For the Landsat datasets supervised classification methods were used to test the suitability of the Maximum Likelihood Classifier with subsequent smoothing and the Sequential Maximum A Posteriori Classifier (SMAPC). The results show a trend typical for the steppe and desert regions of northern China. From 1964 to 2008 farmland strongly increased (+ 61%), while the area of grassland and forest in the floodplains decreased (- 43%). The urban areas increased threefold and 400 ha of former agricultural land were abandoned. Farmland apparently affected by soil salinity decreased in size from 1990 (1180 ha) to 2008 (630 ha). The vegetated areas of the surrounding rangelands decreased, mainly as a result of overgrazing and drought events.The SMAPC with subsequent post processing revealed the highest classification accuracy. However, the specific landscape characteristics of mountain oasis systems required labour intensive post processing. Further research is needed to test the use of ancillary information for an automated classification of the examined landscape features.

An integrated assessment of resource use strategies in the Borana pastoral system of southern Ethiopia

In the pastoral production systems, mobility remains the main technique used to meet livestock’s fodder requirements. Currently, with growing challenges on the pastoral production systems, there is urgent need for an in-depth understanding of how pastoralists continue to manage their grazing resources and how they determine their mobility strategies. This study examined the Borana pastoralists’ regulation of access to grazing resources, mobility practices and cattle reproductive performances in three pastoral zones of Borana region of southern Ethiopia. The central objective of the study was to contribute to the understanding of pastoral land use strategies at a scale relevant to their management. The study applied a multi-scalar methodological approach that allowed zooming in from communal to individual herd level. Through participatory mapping that applied Google Earth image print out as visual aid, the study revealed that the Borana pastoralists conceptualized their grazing areas as distinctive grazing units with names, borders, and specific characteristics. This knowledge enables the herders to communicate the condition of grazing resources among themselves in a precise way which is important in management of livestock mobility. Analysis of grazing area use from the participatory maps showed that the Borana pastoralists apportion their grazing areas into categories that are accessed at different times of the year (temporal use areas). This re-organization is an attempt by the community to cope with the prevailing constraints which results in fodder shortages especially during the dry periods. The re-organization represents a shift in resource use system, as the previous mobility practice across the ecologically varied zones of the rangelands became severely restricted. Grazing itineraries of 91 cattle herds for over 16 months obtained using the seasonal calendar interviews indicated that in the areas with the severest mobility constraints, the herders spent most of their time in the year round use areas that are within close proximity to the settlements. A significant change in mobility strategy was the disallowing of foora practice by the communities in Dirre and Malbe zones in order to reduce competition. With the reduction in mobility practices, there is a general decline in cattle reproductive parameters with the areas experiencing the severest constraints showing the least favourable reproductive performances. The study concludes that the multi-scalar methodology was well suited to zoom into pastoral grazing management practices from communal to individual herd levels. Also the loss of mobility in the Borana pastoral system affects fulfilment of livestock feed requirements thus resulting in reduced reproductive performances and herd growth potentials. While reversal of the conditions of the situations in the Borana rangelands is practically unfeasible, the findings from this research underscore the need to protect the remaining pastoral lands since the pastoral production system remains the most important livelihood option for the majority of the Borana people. In this regards the study emphasises the need to adopt and domesticate regional and international policy frameworks such as that proposed by the African Union in 2010.

Factors influencing the use of selected inputs in yam production in Nigeria and Ghana

In West Africa, yam can be an important crop to reduce poverty and hunger if Research and Development measures identify and properly engage its key production factors for enhanced outputs and better income. Data from 1400 households in Ghana and Nigeria were collected in a multistage random sampling survey (and complementary data from 76 farm family fields) with a structured questionnaire and qualitative interview questions. The results showed that yam is produced mainly with crude inputs/technologies to reduce high dependence on labour, seed production and control of pests and diseases. Yam is produced widely with purchased inputs including seed yam and hired labour; chemical fertiliser, herbicide and pesticides are less often used. Analyses of determinants of use of purchased inputs reveal three serious impediments to expansion in yam production: the increasing scarcity and high cost of hired labour, shortage of suitable land and poor farm roads. As employment opportunities for unskilled labour in urban centres are presently expanding, increased yam production will be hard to achieve without labour-saving inputs for at least some of the production tasks, especially seedbed preparation and weeding, and without improvement in infrastructure.

Apatite-Polymer Composites for the Controlled Dual Delivery of BMP-2 and BMP-6 for Bone Tissue Engineering

The release of growth factors from tissue engineering scaffolds provides signals that influence the migration, differentiation, and proliferation of cells. The incorporation of a drug delivery platform that is capable of tunable release will give tissue engineers greater versatility in the direction of tissue regeneration. We have prepared a novel composite of two biomaterials with proven track records - apatite and poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) – as a drug delivery platform with promising controlled release properties. These composites have been tested in the delivery of a model protein, bovine serum albumin (BSA), as well as therapeutic proteins, recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) and rhBMP-6. The controlled release strategy is based on the use of a polymer with acidic degradation products to control the dissolution of the basic apatitic component, resulting in protein release. Therefore, any parameter that affects either polymer degradation or apatite dissolution can be used to control protein release. We have modified the protein release profile systematically by varying the polymer molecular weight, polymer hydrophobicity, apatite loading, apatite particle size, and other material and processing parameters. Biologically active rhBMP-2 was released from these composite microparticles over 100 days, in contrast to conventional collagen sponge carriers, which were depleted in approximately 2 weeks. The released rhBMP-2 was able to induce elevated alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin expression in pluripotent murine embryonic fibroblasts. To augment tissue engineering scaffolds with tunable and sustained protein release capabilities, these composite microparticles can be dispersed in the scaffolds in different combinations to obtain a superposition of the release profiles. We have loaded rhBMP-2 into composite microparticles with a fast release profile, and rhBMP-6 into slow-releasing composite microparticles. An equi-mixture of these two sets of composite particles was then injected into a collagen sponge, allowing for dual release of the proteins from the collagenous scaffold. The ability of these BMP-loaded scaffolds to induce osteoblastic differentiation in vitro and ectopic bone formation in a rat model is being investigated. We anticipate that these apatite-polymer composite microparticles can be extended to the delivery of other signalling molecules, and can be incorporated into other types of tissue engineering scaffolds.

A Self-Scoring Exercise On APA Style, Research Language, and Referencing for Undergraduate Students

Based on examples provided by 27 graduate psychology faculty, this self-test incorporates many of the more common errors in style, language, and referencing found in student papers. Taking this self-test helps students to recognize common errors and encourages them to refer the APA Publication Manual on a regular basis. In addition, students begin to think about how to use correctly the language of psychological research. This self-test should take about 30 minutes to complete and score. It is composed of three parts: a) a mock Discussion section, where students are asked to act as editors and find the errors, p. 2 (10 minutes). b) a corrected Discussion section, where students find the errors they missed, p. 3 (5 minutes) and, c) a full description of each error with illustrations of correct usage, pp. 4-7 (15 minutes). This exercise assumes some knowledge of APA style. Thus, it is best-suited for advanced undergraduates who need to write research reports and all levels of graduate students. It may be taken at home or in class. Although the self-test is designed to be fully self-directed, instructors may wish to use it at the beginning or end of a classroom discussion on APA style. It could also be used in a pre-test-post-test fashion to evaluate students learning over the course of a term.

e-Research Methods Module Specification

This file contains a generic module specification for the e-Research Methods module which has been approved by AQSC for use at Masters level.

e-Research Methods Module Specification Word File

This file contains a generic module specification for the e-Research Methods module which has been approved by AQSC for use at Masters level.

Visual research and visual analysis

Understand representation and basic semiotic theory i.e. signs, meaning and myth Use visual analysis to decode an image

La sabiduría como competencia gerencial

Aunque el concepto de sabiduría ha sido ampliamente estudiado por expertos de áreas como la filosofía, la religión y la psicología, aún enfrenta limitaciones en cuanto a su definición y evaluación. Por esto, el presente trabajo tiene como objetivo, formular una definición del concepto de sabiduría que permita realizar una propuesta de evaluación del concepto como competencia en los gerentes. Para esto, se realizó un análisis documental de tipo cualitativo. De esta manera, se analizaron diversos textos sobre la historia, las definiciones y las metodologías para evaluar tanto la sabiduría como las competencias; diferenciando la sabiduría de otros constructos y analizando la diferencia entre las competencias generales y las gerenciales para posteriormente, definir la sabiduría como una competencia gerencial. Como resultado de este análisis se generó un prototipo de prueba denominado SAPIENS-O, a través del cuál se busca evaluar la sabiduría como competencia gerencial. Como alcances del instrumento se pueden identificar la posibilidad de medir la sabiduría como competencia en los gerentes, la posibilidad de dar un nuevo panorama a las dificultades teóricas y empíricas sobre la sabiduría y la posibilidad de facilitar el estudio de la sabiduría en ambientes reales, más específicamente en ambientes organizacionales.

La influencia de factores educativos y familiares sobre el aprendizaje de una segunda lengua, y los efectos sobre la inteligencia y cognición

Actualmente, la investigación científica acerca de la influencia de los factores educativos y familiares en el aprendizaje de una segunda lengua (L2) es limitada. En comparación, los efectos que tiene la L2 en la inteligencia y cognición han sido más estudiados. Por esta razón, el artículo presenta una revisión de la literatura empírica existente que relaciona lo mencionado anteriormente, ampliando así la temática del bilingüismo. Se buscaron artículos en cuatro bases de datos (PSICODOC, ISI Web of knowledge y SCOPUS), usando palabras claves específicas, en el periodo de 1990 hasta el 2012. De 79 artículos encontrados, 34 cumplieron con los criterios de inclusión para la revisión. Asimismo, se tuvieron en cuenta dos libros, de los cuales se revisó un capítulo por cada uno según los mismos criterios. En conjunto, los resultados arrojaron importantes datos teóricos y de investigación que relacionan el éxito en el aprendizaje de una L2 con la inteligencia y cognición, según la influencia de los factores educativos y familiares. En conclusión, se identificaron más factores educativos que familiares; lo cual a concepto de la autora evidencia la limitada investigación que se ha hecho sobre los factores familiares en el bilingüismo actualmente.

WAIS Seminar: Research Discussion: Open Data at the Hampshire Hub

This is a research discussion about the Hampshire Hub - see http://protohub.net/. The aim is to find out more about the project, and discuss future collaboration and sharing of ideas. Mark Braggins (Hampshire Hub Partnership) will introduce the Hampshire Hub programme, setting out its main objectives, work done to-date, next steps including the Hampshire data store (which will use the PublishMyData linked data platform), and opportunities for University of Southampton to engage with the programme , including the forthcoming Hampshire Hackathons Bill Roberts (Swirrl) will give an overview of the PublishMyData platform, and how it will help deliver the objectives of the Hampshire Hub. He will detail some of the new functionality being added to the platform Steve Peters (DCLG Open Data Communities) will focus on developing a web of data that blends and combines local and national data sources around localities, and common topics/themes. This will include observations on the potential employing emerging new, big data sources to help deliver more effective, better targeted public services. Steve will illustrate this with practical examples of DCLG’s work to publish its own data in a SPARQL end-point, so that it can be used over the web alongside related 3rd party sources. He will share examples of some of the practical challenges, particularly around querying and re-using geographic LinkedData in a federated world of SPARQL end-point.

Research plan discussion: The socio-technical construction of MOOCs and educator practices in HE

In this seminar slot, we will discuss Steve's research aims and plan. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have received substantial coverage in mainstream sources, academic media, and scholarly journals, both negative and positive. Numerous articles have addressed their potential impact on Higher Education systems in general, and some have highlighted problems with the instructional quality of MOOCs, and the lack of attention to research from online learning and distance education literature in MOOC design. However, few studies have looked at the relationship between social change and the construction of MOOCs within higher education, particularly in terms of educator and learning designer practices. This study aims to use the analytical strategy of Socio-Technical Interaction Networks (STIN) to explore the extent to which MOOCs are socially shaped and their relationship to educator and learning designer practices. The study involves a multi-site case study of 3 UK MOOC-producing universities and aims to capture an empirically based, nuanced understanding of the extent to which MOOCs are socially constructed in particular contexts, and the social implications of MOOCs, especially among educators and learning designers.

Virtualization of seed research: perhaps a continuity model.

The research nurseries serve as a initiative designed for the purpose of contribute to the breakdown of seizure paradigms of knowledge, supported by a theoretical model of discernment that exceed the traditional method of learning in the classroom, to transcend critical insights into transforming the environment under an autonomous space to provide tools essentially scientific, but with ethical criterion and social commitment. Such a conception, however, could be perceived as talkative, and even metaphorical, at the contrast of reality purely versatile in which the neophyte not only tries to get enough of the fruit of knowledge, but also requires that appropriate strategies are put forward to achieve seizure. Then arises, from the formative entelechy the use of technological tools based on virtual learning environments, in order to enhance motivation as an alternative against the blurring of perspectives and the emerging business in some types of nurseries, stranded attitude, that sometimes not far from the master model.