Strategic manipulation of empirical tests

Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted.

Population structure, habitat use and conservation of short-finned pilot whales Globicephala macrorhynchus in the Archipelago of Madeira

This thesis provides information on the grouping structure, survival, abundance, dive characteristics and habitat preferences of short-finned pilot whales occurring in the oceanic archipelago of Madeira (Portugal, NE Atlantic), based on data collected between 2001-2011, and contributes for its conservation. Photo-identification methods and genetic analyses demonstrated that there is a large degree of variability in site fidelity, including resident, regular visitor and transient whales, and that they may not be genetically isolated. It is proposed that the pilot whales encountered in Madeira belong to a single population encompassing several clans, possibly three clans of island-associated (i.e. resident and regular visitor) whales and others of transients, each containing two to three matrilineal pods. Mark-recapture methods estimated that the island-associated community is composed of less than 150 individuals and that their survival rate is within the range of other long-lived cetacean species, and that around 300 whales of different residency patterns uses the southern area of the island of Madeira from mid-summer to mid-autumn. No significant trend was observed between years. Time-depth recorders deployed in adult whales during daytime revealed that they spend over ¾ of their time at the surface, that they have a low diving rate, and that transient whales also forage during their passage. The analyses of visual data collected from nautical and aerial line-transect surveys indicate a core/preferred habitat area in the south-east of the island of Madeira. That area is used for resting, socializing, foraging, breeding, calving and birthing. Thus, that area should be considered as an important habitat for this species, at least seasonally (during autumn) when the species is more abundant, and included in conservation plans. No direct threat needing urgent measures was identified, although the impact of some activities like whale-watching or marine traffic should be assessed.

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Multivariate analysis for the classification and differentiation of Madeira wines according to main grape varieties

In order to differentiate and characterize Madeira wines according to main grape varieties, the volatile composition (higher alcohols, fatty acids, ethyl esters and carbonyl compounds) was determined for 36 monovarietal Madeira wine samples elaborated from Boal, Malvazia, Sercial and Verdelho white grape varieties. The study was carried out by headspace solid-phase microextraction technique (HS-SPME), in dynamic mode, coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Corrected peak area data for 42 analytes from the above mentioned chemical groups was used for statistical purposes. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in order to determine the main sources of variability present in the data sets and to establish the relation between samples (objects) and volatile compounds (variables). The data obtained by GC–MS shows that the most important contributions to the differentiation of Boal wines are benzyl alcohol and (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol. Ethyl octadecanoate, (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol and benzoic acid are the major contributions in Malvazia wines and 2-methylpropan-1-ol is associated to Sercial wines. Verdelho wines are most correlated with 5-(ethoxymethyl)-furfural, nonanone and cis-9-ethyldecenoate. A 96.4% of prediction ability was obtained by the application of stepwise linear discriminant analysis (SLDA) using the 19 variables that maximise the variance of the initial data set.

Influence of the temperature in germination of seeds of jabuticaba tree

A jabuticabeira (Myrciaria spp.) é uma fruteira originada do centro-Sul do Brasil e apresenta tipos diferentes. É uma árvore de tamanho médio, com tendência a formar copa com grande número de ramos desde pouco acima do solo. Uma característica considerada como limitante para a cultura comercial dessa frutífera é o grande período juvenil, aconselhando-se então produzir bons porta-enxertos de pés-francos e enxertar as variedades desejadas, ou ainda por outros processos vegetativos. Objetivando-se avaliar a influência da temperatura na germinação de sementes de três clones de jabuticabeira, realizou-se um experimento em condições de laboratório. Observou-se que há influência da temperatura na porcentagem de germinação, sendo que, nas mais baixas temperaturas (15ºC e 20ºC), foi verificada uma maior porcentagem de germinação para os três clones em estudo. Quando do uso da temperatura de 35ºC, dois clones tiveram apenas 8% de germinação, enquanto, para o outro, foi verificado 35%. Estes dados mostram a possibilidade de ocorrência de variabilidade entre clones de jabuticabeira.

Morphological, biological and molecular characterization of three strains of Trypanosoma cruzi Chagas, 1909 (Kinetoplastida, Trypanosomatidae) isolated from Triatoma sordida (Stal) 1859 (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) and a domestic cat

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effect of cosurfactant on the supramolecular structure and physicochemical properties of non-ionic biocompatible microemulsions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A special BEM for elastostatic analysis of building floor slabs on columns

This work presents a boundary element formulation for the analysis of building floor slabs, without beams, in which columns are coupled with the plate. An alternative formulation of boundary element method is presented, which considers three nodal displacements values (w, partial derivativew/partial derivativen and partial derivativew/partial derivatives) for the nodes at the boundary of the plate. In this formulation three boundary equations are written for all nodes at the boundary and in the domain of the plate. As the nodes of the column-plate connections are also represented by three nodal values, all these structural elements can be easily coupled. It is supposed that the cross-sections of the columns remain flat after the deflection and consequently the assumption of linear variation of the stress in the plate-column contact surface is also valid. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

The definition of potential infiltration areas in Guaratingueta watershed, Paraiba do Sul Basin, Southeastern Brazil: an integrated approach using physical and land-use elements

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamical erosion of asteroid groups in the region of the Phocaea family

In a previous paper, the current state of knowledge of the region containing the Phocaea dynamical family was revised. Here, the dynamical evolution and possible origin of the Phocaea dynamical family and asteroid groups in the region are investigated. First, I study the case of asteroids at high eccentricity (e > 0.31). I find that these objects are unstable because of encounters with Mars on time-scales of up to 270 Myr. The minimum time needed by members of the Phocaea classical family to reach the orbital locations of these objects, 370 Myr, can be used to set a lower limit on the age of the Phocaea family.Next, attention is focused on the chaotic layer previously identified near the nu(6) secular resonance border. Using analytical and numerical tools, I find that the presence of the nu(6) secular resonance forces asteroids with vertical bar g-g(6)vertical bar < 2.55 arcsec yr(-1) to reach eccentricities high enough to allow them to experience deep, close encounters with Mars. Results of the analytical model of Yoshikawa and of my numerical simulations fully explain the low-inclination chaotic region found by Carruba.Finally, I investigate the long-term stability of the minor families and clumps identified in the previous paper, with particular emphasis on a clump only identifiable in the domain of proper frequencies (n, g, g - s) around (6246) Komurotoru. I find that while the clumps identified in the space of proper elements quickly disperse when the Yarkovsky effect is considered, the family around (19536) is still observable for time-scales of more than 50 Myr. The (6246) clump, characterized by its interaction with the nu(5) + nu(16) and 2 nu(6) - nu(16) secular resonances, is robust on time-scales of 50 Myr. I confirm that this group may be the first clump ever detected in the frequency domain that can be associated with a real collisional event.

Alternative proposal for Modal Representation of a Non-transposed Three-Phase Transmission Line with a Vertical Symmetry Plane

The objective of this paper is to show an alternative representation in time domain of a non-transposed three-phase transmission line decomposed in its exact modes by using two transformation matrices. The first matrix is Clarke's matrix that is real, frequency independent, easily represented in computational transient programs (EMTP) and separates the line into quasi-modes a, b and zero. After that, Quasi-modes a and zero are decomposed into their exact modes by using a modal transformation matrix whose elements can be synthesized in time domain through standard curve-fitting techniques. The main advantage of this alternative representation is to reduce the processing time because a frequency dependent modal transformation matrix of a three-phase line has nine elements to be represented in time domain while a modal transformation matrix of a two-phase line has only four elements. This paper shows modal decomposition process and eigenvectors of a non-transposed three-phase line with a vertical symmetry plane whose nominal voltage is 440 kV and line length is 500 km.

CrossMDA-SPL: uma abordagem para gerência de variabilidades dirigida por modelos e aspectos

This paper proposes a systematic approach to management of variability modelsdriven and aspects using the mechanisms of approaches Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) and Model-Driven Development (MDD). The main goal of the approach, named CrossMDA-SPL, is to improve the management(gerência), modularization and isolation ou separation of the variability of the LPSs of architecture in a high level of abstraction (model) at the design and implementing phases of development Software Product Lines (SPLs), exploiting the synergy between AOSD and MDD. The CrossMDA-SPL approach defines some artifacts basis for advance the separation clear in between the mandatory (bounden) and optional features in the architecture of SPL. The artifacts are represented by two models named: (i) core model (base domain) - responsible for specify the common features the all members of the SPL, and (ii) variability model - responsible for represent the variables features of SPL. In addition, the CrossMDA-SPL approach is composed of: (i) guidelines for modeling and representation of variability, (ii) CrossMDA-SPL services and process, and (iii) models of the architecture of SPL or product instance of SPL. The guidelines use the advantages of AOSD and MDD to promote a better modularization of the variable features of the architecture of SPL during the creation of core and variability models of the approach. The services and sub-processes are responsible for combination automatically, through of process of transformation between the core and variability models, and the generation of new models that represent the implementation of the architecture of SPL or a instance model of SPL. Mechanisms for effective modularization of variability for architectures of SPL at model level. The concepts are described and measured with the execution of a case study of an SPL for management systems of transport electronic tickets

A critical evaluation of the expression of parasitemia in experimental Chagas' disease

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

LaTBP1: A Leishmania amazonensis DNA-binding protein that associates in vivo with telomeres and GT-rich DNA using a Myb-like domain

Different species of Leishmania can cause a variety of medically important diseases, whose control and treatment are still health problems. Telomere binding proteins (TBPs) have potential as targets for anti-parasitic chemotherapy because of their importance for genome stability and cell viability. Here, we describe LaTBP1 a protein that has a Myb-like DNA-binding domain, a feature shared by most double-stranded telomeric proteins. Binding assays using full-length and truncated LaTBP1 combined with spectroscopy analysis were used to map the boundaries of the Myb-like domain near to the protein only tryptophan residue. The Myb-like domain of LaTBP1 contains a conserved hydrophobic cavity implicated in DNA-binding activity. A hypothetical model helped to visualize that it shares structural homology with domains of other Myb-containing proteins. Competition assays and chromatin immunoprecipitation confirmed the specificity of LaTBP1 for telomeric and GT-rich DNAs, suggesting that LaTBP1 is a new TBP. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Isoenzymatic variation in the germplasm of Brazilian races of maize (Zea mays L.)

Existem mais de 200 raças de milho (Zea mays L.), as quais são divididas em três grupos (raças comerciais antigas, raças comerciais recentes e raças indígenas). As raças indígenas, embora não tenham valor comercial, possuem muitas características importantes que podem ser utilizadas em programas de melhoramento de milho. A maior parte do germoplasma brasileiro das raças de milho indígena foi coletada, no mínimo, 40 anos atrás e nada é conhecido sobre a variabilidade presente neste germoplasma. Quinze populações de 4 raças indígenas de milho (Caingang, Entrelaçado, Lenha e Moroti) e 5 cultivares indígenas foram analisados utilizando-se 5 sistemas isoenzimáticos codificados por 14 locos. A análise revelou um baixo nível de variabilidade entre as amostras estudadas. O número médio de alelos/loco foi três, com 64,3% de locos polimórficos e uma heterozigosidade média esperada de 0,352. Por população, a média de número de alelos por loco polimórfico foi 1,6, em média 47,5% dos locos foram polimórficos e a heterozigosidade média foi 0,195. A distância genética média entre as populações foi 0,821 e a proporção da variabilidade genética, que é atribuída ao componente entre populações (Gst), foi 0,156. Os dados sugerem que um efeito de fundador poderia explicar a baixa variabilidade detectada.