Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Government procurement contracts and minimum labour standards enforcement: Rhetoric, duplication and distraction?

Government contracts for services typically include terms requiring contractors to comply with minimum labour standards laws. Procurement contract clauses specify reporting procedures and sanctions for non-compliance, implying that government contracting agencies will monitor and enforce minimum labour standards within contract performance management. In this article, the case of school cleaners employed under New South Wales government contracts between 2010 and 2011 is the vehicle for exploring the effectiveness of these protective clauses. We find that the inclusion of these protective clauses in procurement contracts is unnecessary in the Australian context, and any expectations that government contracting agencies will monitor and enforce labour standards are misleading. At best, the clauses are rhetoric, and at worst, they are a distraction for parties with enforcement powers.

EDDY

This exhibiton bought together a selection of artists - Danielle Clej, Channon Goodwin, Christopher Handran, Majena Mafe, Erika Scott and Mark Webb - to explore the role conversations and incidental engagements play as part of making art.The premise of the show focused on how these artists might respond to the process of sharing ideas and responses to one other in the making of artwork.

The knowledge: a project by Boxcopy at Post-Museum, Singapore

‘The Knowledge’ was part of the Next Wave/Asialink project 'Invisible Structures: Australian artist collectives in Tokyo, Singapore and Yogyakarta' in January 2011. For this project, Brisbane ARI Boxcopy undertook a two-week residency at Post Musuem in Singapore. In this project, the Boxcopy artists Channon Goodwin, Joseph Breikers, Timothy P Kerr, Daniel McKewen, Raymonde Rajkowski, Tim Woodward, attempted to acquire an intimate knowledge of the city of Singapore by forming a free delivery company, The Boxcopy Publics Carriage Office of Singapore (BPCOS), which provided services around the city by foot, bike and public transport. In addition to committing to memory and documenting the streets and sites of Singapore, the BPCOS team also performed tasks such as delivering goods or messages, travel a particular route or visit a site, as requested by the people of Singapore. The project comprised this process of public interaction as well as an exhibition and website.

Great expectations : a project by Boxcopy for Federation Square, Next Wave Festival 2008

Part of the Next Wave MEMBRANE Project, Great Expectations draws attention to the parallels between our expectations of art and new technology to make the world a better place. The theme of the 2008 Next Wave Festival, ‘Closer Together’, refers to the way society is ― for the better or for the worse ― becoming increasingly connected by media and communication technologies. Sceptical of the acclaimed social achievements of new technologies, Boxcopy: Contemporary Art Space, a Brisbane-based artist-run initiative, explores the futility of human activities, including art production and consumption, with a collection of works created by young and emerging Brisbane artists. Works for this project include: Early machines such as the Commodore 64 were tape-based, and hence had their games distributed on ordinary cassettes (2009) by Tim Kerr & Extra Features (2008) by Tim Woodward; Spine (2008), Joseph Briekers; Whiteout (2008), Channon Goodwin; Explosive Revelations (2008), Daniel McKewen.

On fundamental limitations for rudder roll stabilization of ships

The main purpose of the rudder in ships is course keeping. However, the rudder can also be used, in some cases, to reject undesirable wave produced rolling motions. From a fundamental point of view, the main issues associated with this problem are the presence of a nonminimum phase zero and the single input two output nature of the system. In this paper, the limitations imposed on the achievable closed loop performance due to these issues are analyzed. This gives a deeper understanding of the problem and leads to conclusions regarding the inherent design trade-offs which hold regardless of the control strategy used.

Stochastic output feedback model predictive control

This paper addresses the issue of output feedback model predictive control for linear systems with input constraints and stochastic disturbances. We show that the optimal policy uses the Kalman filter for state estimation, but the resultant state estimates are not utilized in a certainty equivalence control law

Roundabout design and cycling safety

Roundabouts reduce the frequency and severity of motor vehicle crashes and therefore the number installed has increased dramatically in the last 20 years in many countries. However, the safety impacts of roundabouts for bicycle riders are a source of concern, with many studies reporting lower injury reductions for cyclists than car occupants. This paper summarises the results of a project undertaken to provide guidance on how cyclist safety could be improved at existing roundabouts in Queensland, Australia, where cyclist crashes have been increasing and legislation gives motor vehicles priority over cyclists and pedestrians at roundabouts. The review of international roundabout design guidelines identified two schools of design: tangential roundabouts (common in English-speaking countries, including Australia), which focus on minimising delay to motor vehicles, and radial roundabouts (common in continental Europe), which focus on speed reduction and safety. While it might be expected that radial roundabouts would be safer for cyclists, there have been no studies to confirm this view. Most guidelines expect cyclists to act as vehicle traffic in single-lane, typically low-speed, roundabouts. Some jurisdictions do not permit cyclists to travel on multi-lane roundabouts, and recommend segregated bicycle facilities because of their lowest crash risk for cyclists. Given that most bicycle-vehicle crashes at roundabouts involve an entering vehicle and a circulating cyclist, the greatest challenges appear to be reducing the speed of motor vehicles on the approach/entry to roundabouts and other ways of maximizing the likelihood that cyclists will be seen. Lower entry speeds are likely to underpin the greater safety of compact roundabouts for cyclists and, conversely, the higher than expected crash rates at two-lane roundabouts. European research discourages the use of bike lanes in roundabouts which position cyclists at the edge of the road and contributes to cyclists being less likely to be noticed by drivers.

Mitochondrial genome acquisition restores respiratory function and tumorigenic potential of cancer cells without mitochondrial DNA

We report that tumor cells devoid of their mitochondrial genome (mtDNA) show delayed tumor growth and that tumor formation is associated with acquisition of mtDNA from host cells. This leads to partial recovery of mitochondrial function in cells derived from primary tumors grown from cells without mtDNA and a shorter lag in tumor growth. Cell lines from circulating tumor cells showed further recovery of mitochondrial respiration and an intermediate lag to tumor growth, while cells from lung metastases exhibited full restoration of respiratory function and no lag in tumor growth. Stepwise assembly of mitochondrial respiratory supercomplexes was correlated with acquisition of respiratory function. Our findings indicate horizontal transfer of mtDNA from host cells in the tumor microenvironment to tumor cells with compromised respiratory function to re-establish respiration and tumor-initiating efficacy. These results suggest a novel pathophysiological process for overcoming mtDNA damage and support the notion of high plasticity of malignant cells.

Provisioning a 3.3 MW PhotoVoltaic generation system onto a distribution authority’s 11 kV rural feeder

This paper describes part of an engineering study that was undertaken to demonstrate that a multi-megawatt Photovoltaic (PV) generation system could be connected to a rural 11 kV feeder without creating power quality issues for other consumers. The paper concentrates solely on the voltage regulation aspect of the study as this was the most innovative part of the study. The study was carried out using the time-domain software package, PSCAD/EMTDC. The software model included real time data input of actual measured load and scaled PV generation data, along with real-time substation voltage regulator and PV inverter reactive power control. The outputs from the model plot real-time voltage, current and power variations throughout the daily load and PV generation variations. Other aspects of the study not described in the paper include the analysis of harmonics, voltage flicker, power factor, voltage unbalance and system losses.

Distribution Revolution: Conversations about the Digital Future of Film and Television

Distribution Revolution is a collection of interviews with leading film and TV professionals concerning the many ways that digital delivery systems are transforming the entertainment business. These interviews provide lively insider accounts from studio executives, distribution professionals, and creative talent of the tumultuous transformation of film and TV in the digital era. The first section features interviews with top executives at major Hollywood studios, providing a window into the big-picture concerns of media conglomerates with respect to changing business models, revenue streams, and audience behaviors. The second focuses on innovative enterprises that are providing path-breaking models for new modes of content creation, curation, and distribution—creatively meshing the strategies and practices of Hollywood and Silicon Valley. And the final section offers insights from creative talent whose professional practices, compensation, and everyday working conditions have been transformed over the past ten years. Taken together, these interviews demonstrate that virtually every aspect of the film and television businesses is being affected by the digital distribution revolution, a revolution that has likely just begun. Interviewees include: • Gary Newman, Chairman, 20th Century Fox Television • Kelly Summers, Former Vice President, Global Business Development and New Media Strategy, Walt Disney Studios • Thomas Gewecke, Chief Digital Officer and Executive Vice President, Strategy and Business Development, Warner Bros. Entertainment • Ted Sarandos, Chief Content Officer, Netflix • Felicia D. Henderson, Writer-Producer, Soul Food, Gossip Girl • Dick Wolf, Executive Producer and Creator, Law & Order

A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

The effectiveness of interventions which promote self-management for people with End Stage Renal Disease undergoing haemodialysis

Review Objectives: This systematic review seeks to establish what best practice is for: Interventions which promote self-management for patients with End Stage Renal Disease (ERSD) undergoing Haemodialysis. Review questions: 1) Do education interventions improve self-management for patients with end stage renal disease? 2) Do psychosocial interventions such as Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, behavioural therapy or other counselling therapies and social support, improve self-management for patients with end stage renal disease? Criteria for considering studies for this review: Types of participants: This component of the review will consider studies with: • All adults over the age of 18 years • Patients with end stage renal disease • Undergoing haemodialysis Types of interventions/Phenomena of Interest: All studies evaluating the following interventions will be considered for inclusion in the review such as: Interventions which promote self management including: • Education interventions. • Psychosocial interventions such as cognitive behavioural therapy and other behavioural therapies, counselling and social support. Types of outcome measures/anticipated outcomes: This component of the review will consider studies that include the following outcomes: • Adherence with haemodialysis treatment, • Depression and/or anxiety, • Quality of life, • Carer burnout, • Social support • Patient satisfaction • Adverse events potentially attributable to the intervention or control treatment • Cost effectiveness of home haemodialysis Keywords chronic kidney failure; renal failure; end stage renal disease; chronic kidney disease

Roundabout design guidelines and cycling safety

Review conducted as part of a Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads funded project ‘Roundabout design review’. The project examined: - Design guidelines - Factors that affect safety at roundabouts

Melaleuca densispicata in Currawinya National Park, South-West Queensland: Ecology and preliminary implications for management of a rare plant species

Melaleuca densispicata Byrnes is an uncommon species with a limited distribution, comprising disjunct populations in inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia. It is a dense, woody shrub, 2–4 m in height, which exhibits a marked 'clumping' growth habit. It has thick, papery bark and displays many white flowers during spring or early summer. Although it has long been known to exist, M. densispicata was only formally described in 1984, and very little is currently known about its ecology or specific management requirements. There are only seven known subpopulations of the species across its range. A major population at the western limit of its distribution occurs on Currawinya National Park (28°52'S, 144°30'E). Here, it is locally abundant and listed as a noteworthy plant species under the Management Plan (Queensland Parks & Wildlife Service 2001). This study aimed to identify patterns in the distribution of M. densispicata in Currawinya National Park, describe its ecological niche and role, and provide management recommendations for the species within the study area. Recent anecdotal observations of recruitment failure in south-western Queensland (Peter McRae, QPWS, October 2004, pers. comm.; Dick O'Connell, local grazier, July 2005 pers. comm.) caused additional emphasis to be placed on the examination of recruitment and recruitment factors.