Present and future methodology for the implementation of decision support systems for traffic management

Real-time predictions are an indispensable requirement for traffic management in order to be able to evaluate the effects of different available strategies or policies. The combination of predicting the state of the network and the evaluation of different traffic management strategies in the short term future allows system managers to anticipate the effects of traffic control strategies ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of congestion. This paper presents the current framework of decision support systems for traffic management based on short and medium-term predictions and includes some reflections on their likely evolution, based on current scientific research and the evolution of the availability of new types of data and their associated methodologies.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

Expertise and decision making among clinicians in investigations of alleged child sexual abuse

The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.

Lukion opettajien ääni - Aineenopettajien käsityksiä muutoksista ja visioista lukiossa

Tulevaisuusorientaatio on tullut entistä tärkeämmäksi myös koulumaailmassa johtuen yhteiskunnassa nopeasti eteen tulevista muutoksista. On myös esitetty epäilyjä, että tulevaisuuteen reagoimisessa heikoin tilanne olisikin juuri kuntatason päätöksenteossa. Ymmärrys ja tieto opettajan työstä nimenomaan opettajan omasta perspektiivistä tarkasteltuna mahdollistavat lähtökohdan ja edellytykset todelliselle koulun uudistamiselle. Peruskysymys, johon tässä tutkimuksessa etsittiin vastausta oli: Millaisia ovat lukion aineenopettajien käsitykset lukion muutosprosesseista ja miten he visioivat oman lukionsa ja yleensä lukioiden tulevaisuutta? Aineiston keruu osui ajankohtaan, joka oli hyvin otollinen tulevaisuuden tarkasteluun, sillä uusi opetussuunnitelma otettiin käyttöön kaikissa Suomen lukioissa viimeistään lukuvuonna 2005-2006. Tutkimuksessa oli mukana kaksi hyvin erilaista lukiota Länsi-Suomen läänistä eli pieni maaseudun lukio ja hyvin suuri kaupunkilukio. Tutkimusaineiston keruu eteni kaksivaiheisesti: informoitu kysely ja teemahaastattelu. Tutkimusjoukon suuruus oli yhteensä 20, joista puolet oli miehiä ja puolet naisia. Aineenopettajien käsityksiä muutoksista ja visioista tutkittiin fenomenografisen tutkimusotteen avulla. Fenomenografiassa kiinnostuksen kohteena ovat ihmisten erilaiset käsitykset todellisuudesta ja näin saatava ymmärrys tavoista, joilla ihmiset kokevat tilanteita ja maailmaa. Organisaation muutosprosesseja voidaan kutsua myös oppimiseksi. Tutkimuksen oppivan organisaation näkökulmat perustuivat juuri yhteistyössä tapahtuvaan yhteisen toiminnan kehittämiseen. Aineenopettajien käsityksiä työyhteisöstään tarkasteltiin seuraavista oppivan organisaatiomallin näkökulmista: vuorovaikutus, päätöksenteko sekä rehtorin ja aineenopettajan rooli ja asema työyhteisössä. Aineenopettajien keskeisimmät käsitykset muutoksista lukiossa viime vuosina kohdistuivat aineenopettajan ammattirooliin ja lukio-opiskelijaan sekä opiskelijalta vaadittaviin lukio-opintoihin. Muutokset ammattiroolissa korostavat tutkimustulosten perusteella aineenopettajilta vaadittavia muitakin kuin opetettavien aineiden hallintataitoja. Suoranaista ammattitaidon puutetta opettajat kokivat varsinkin ryhmänohjaustehtävien yhteydessä, osittain myös uusien oppimisympäristöjen, esimerkiksi verkkopedagogisten taitojen, yhteydessä. Opettajien lisäkoulutuksen tarve koetaan konkreettisena, mutta sekä koulutusten sisältöihin, järjestelyihin ja ajankohtiin että koulun sijais- ym. järjestelyihin kaivattaisiin parannuksia. Verrattuna aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin näyttäisi siltä, että luokaton lukio on saanut opettajat enenevässä määrin huolestumaan opiskelijoiden syrjäytymisriskistä ja hyvinvoinnista. Opiskelijoiden syrjäytymisriskin kasvu lukio-opintojen aikana nouseekin yhdeksi lukion pessimistiseksi skenaarioksi. Muista pessimistisistä skenaarioista lukiolle, jotka saattoi johtaa tutkimustuloksista, voidaan mainita työyhteisön demokratiavajeen syveneminen sekä opetussuunnitelmasisältöjen ja ylioppilastutkintovaatimusten välisen kuilun syveneminen. Aineenopettajien käsitykset oman lukionsa visioista olivat sisällöiltään pääosin välineellisiä ja ne kohdentuivat kaikki opiskelijoihin. Esimerkiksi työyhteisöllisiä kehittämisajatuksia ei visioissa ilmennyt. Myöskään visioinnin dynaamisuus ei aineistossa korostunut. Aineenopettajien käsitykset visioiden arvopohjasta heijastivat perinteistä suomalaista arvomaailmaa eli itsekuria, velvollisuudentuntoa, kuuliaisuutta esivaltaa kohtaan ja perinteisten arvojen kunnioittamista. Sen sijaan antiikista perityviä Sokrateen edustamia keskustelua ja auktoriteettien kyseenalaistamista ei arvoissa ilmennyt, eikä myöskään uusliberalistista individualismia. Käsitykset visioiden synnystä näyttävät parhaiten selittävän opettajan muita käsityksiä liittyen visioon, visiointiin ja työyhteisöllisiin vaikutusmahdollisuuksiin sekä opettajan tulevaisuusorientoitumiseen.. Käsitykset vision syntytaustasta voidaan jakaa seuraaviin pää- ja alakategorioihin: 1. auktoriteettikeskeinen visiointi: johdon linjaus tai valtakunnallinen linjaus, 2. yhteisökeskeinen visiointi: yhteisöllinen linjaus tai toiminnallinen linjaus ja 3. yksilökeskeinen visiointi. Pessimistisimmiksi eli vähiten tulevaisuusorientoituneiksi opettajiksi työyhteisössä osoittautuivat ne opettajat, jotka pitivät oman lukionsa visiota koulun johdon sanelemana. Monet teoriat oppivasta organisaatiosta korostavat johtajuuden merkitystä työyhteisöä kehitettäessä. Johtajuuden merkitys nousi tämänkin tutkimuksen aineistosta keskeisesti esiin. Pyrkimystä kohti oppivaa organisaatiota opettajien puheista löytyy paljonkin, esimerkkeinä viittaukset johtajuuden ja vuorovaikutustapojen kehittämistarpeisiin. Sen sijaan opettajien puheet omista työyhteisöllisistä kehittymistarpeistaan, ns. alaistaidot, jäivät vähäisiksi. Tutkimustuloksista on luotu sovellusmalli kouluyhteisöjen visioinnin ja muun kehittämistyön tueksi.

Determinants of the decision to appeal against motor bodily injury settlements awarded by Spanish trial courts

Automobile bodily injury disputes represent one of the main causes of litigation faced by Spanish Courts. In this paper a multinomial model is implemented to analyse which factors determine the decision to appeal against the verdicts of trial courts. Use of a dataset of motor insurance claims revealed differences between the determinants of a claimant’s decision to appeal and those of insurers. Among other results it is shown that discrepancies regarding the permanent disability sustained affect the insurer’s decision to appeal. In contrast, the claimant pays more attention to differences in the stated temporary disability. Conclusions are drawn regarding which factors could reduce the percentage of appealed cases.

An energy efficient vertical handover decision algorithm

As wireless communications evolve towards heterogeneousnetworks, mobile terminals have been enabled tohandover seamlessly from one network to another. At the sametime, the continuous increase in the terminal power consumptionhas resulted in an ever-decreasing battery lifetime. To that end,the network selection is expected to play a key role on howto minimize the energy consumption, and thus to extend theterminal lifetime. Hitherto, terminals select the network thatprovides the highest received power. However, it has been provedthat this solution does not provide the highest energy efficiency.Thus, this paper proposes an energy efficient vertical handoveralgorithm that selects the most energy efficient network thatminimizes the uplink power consumption. The performance of theproposed algorithm is evaluated through extensive simulationsand it is shown to achieve high energy efficiency gains comparedto the conventional approach.

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decisionmakers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reducednumber of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between theseactors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-knownmulticriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow theso-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al.,1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknownvariance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative prioritiesof the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of themedian of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner(priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will beused in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution ofthe problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools

Group preference structures in AHP–group decision making

This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures(PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a groupdecision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makesuse of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solvediscrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolutionof multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspectsand uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales correspondingto the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in adistributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals’ priorities we identifydifferent clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preferencestructure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling.The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiationprocesses and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of thealternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures

Model for interevent times with long tails and multifractality in human communications: An application to financial trading

Social, technological, and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random, albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active periods interwoven. Understanding mechanisms generating consistent statistics has therefore become a central issue. The approach we present is taken from the continuous-time random-walk formalism and represents an analytical alternative to models of nontrivial priority that have been recently proposed. Our analysis also goes one step further by looking at the multifractal structure of the interevent times of human decisions. We here analyze the intertransaction time intervals of several financial markets. We observe that empirical data describe a subtle multifractal behavior. Our model explains this structure by taking the pausing-time density in the form of a superstatistics where the integral kernel quantifies the heterogeneous nature of the executed tasks. A stretched exponential kernel provides a multifractal profile valid for a certain limited range. A suggested heuristic analytical profile is capable of covering a broader region.

Projecte executiu d'una instal·lació de climatització i control d'un habitatge unifamiliar

Moltes vegades l’usuari d’una instal•lació de climatització o calefacció, no dóna la suficient importància al sistema que l’hi ha de proporcionar un millor confort amb el màxim rendiment. Aquest confort és un factor determinant, entre molts d’altres, de la “qualitat de vida”. Mentre que el rendiment és un factor important a nivell econòmic i ecològic. Tot i tenir prevalença els aspectes d’estalvi energètic, aquests no impliquen haver de renunciar a un confort tèrmic i a un estalvi econòmic. Un dels aspectes que es centra el projecte és promoure l’ús racional de les fonts energètiques (solar, biomassa) per a la correcta climatització dels habitatges. El projecte es desenvolupa en l’àmbit domèstic, concretament correspon a un habitatge unifamiliar. Aquest està situat a la població de Roda de Ter, província de Barcelona. L’objectiu principal del projecte és l’elecció del sistema de climatització i el seu dimensionament, per tal de donar el màxim confort als usuaris que habitin a la vivenda. Criteris ambientals i eficients han estat objecte a considerar pel disseny constructiu de l’habitatge. Una de les mesures importants presses en el projecte, ha estat l’elecció de les diferents parts que formen la instal•lació de climatització. Es fa referència als aïllaments dels tancaments, el sistema solar de recolzament, equips de producció de fred i calor, entre d’altres. En el projecte, s’ha dut a terme un estudi dels diferents tancaments de l’habitatge, tot determinat per a cada un d’ells, el seu coeficient de transmissió tèrmica. Per seleccionar l’equipament més adequat s’ha partit de les condicions climatològiques del municipi de Roda de Ter i s’ha realitzat el càlcul de les necessitats tèrmiques de l’edifici. L’habitatge incorpora una instal•lació de captació solar tèrmica. Aquesta aportarà un suport energètic a tot el sistema de producció de calor, ja sigui per la producció d’aigua calenta sanitària com per el calefactat de la vivenda. La col•locació dels panells a la façana sud tindrà una doble funció: a més de proporcionar energia solar tèrmica, serviran d’elements de protecció solar en la temporada d’estiu. La caldera usada per donar recolzament tèrmic utilitzarà com a combustible el “pellet”. El “pellet” és un tipus de biomassa llenyosa que consta d’un derivat de la fusta en format granulat. Es defineix i es detalla el consum energètic en biomassa, electricitat i cost econòmic anual que ocasionarà la instal.lació dissenyada. El sistema de terra radiant adoptat permetrà el refrescament en èpoques estivals i el calefactat en èpoques hivernals. Aquest donarà el confort tèrmic necessari a cada estança de l’habitatge. En el projecte també es marquen les pautes bàsiques pel control de la instal•lació solar així com el control dels grups de bombament i la mescla d’aigua del terra radiant.