879 resultados para Cumulative effects assessment (Environmental assessment)
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Purpose – There has been a tendency in sustainability science to be passive. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an alternative positive framework for a more active and direct approach to sustainable design and assessment that de-couples environmental impacts and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – This paper deconstructs some systemic gaps that are critical to sustainability in built environment management processes and tools, and reframes negative “sustainable” decision making and assessment frameworks into their positive counterparts. In particular, it addresses the omission of ecology, design and ethics in development assessment. Findings – Development can be designed to provide ecological gains and surplus “eco-services,” but assessment tools and processes favor business-as-usual. Despite the tenacity of the dominant paradigm (DP) in sustainable development institutionalized by the Brundtland Report over 25 years ago, these omissions are easily corrected. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that the author was unable to find exceptions to the omissions cited here in the extensive literature on urban planning and building assessment tools. However, exceptions prove the rule. The implication is that it is not too late for eco-positive retrofitting of cities to increase natural and social capital. The solutions are just as applicable in places like China and India as the USA, as they pay for themselves. Originality/value – Positive development (PD) is a fundamental paradigm shift that reverses the negative models, methods and metrics of the DP of sustainable development. This paper provides an example of how existing “negative” concepts and practices can be converted into positive ones through a PD prism. Through a new form of bio-physical design, development can be a sustainability solution.
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The present study explored the effects of the double counter twisted tapes on heat transfer and fluid friction characteristics in a heat exchanger tube. The double counter twisted tapes were used as counter-swirl flow generators in the test section. The experiments were performed with double counter twisted tapes of four different twist ratios (y = 1.95, 3.85, 5.92 and 7.75) using air as the testing fluid in a circular tube turbulent flow regime where the Reynolds number was varied from 6950 to 50,050. The experimental results demonstrated that the Nusselt number, friction factor and thermal enhancement efficiency were increased with decreasing twist ratio. The results also revealed that the heat transfer rate in the tube fitted with double counter twisted tape was significantly increased with corresponding increase in pressure drop. In the range of the present work, heat transfer rate and friction factor were obtained to be around 60 to 240% and 91 to 286% higher than those of the plain tube values, respectively. The maximum thermal enhancement efficiency of 1.34 was achieved by the use of double counter twisted tapes at constant blower power. In addition, the empirical correlations for the Nusselt number, friction factor and thermal enhancement efficiency were also developed, based on the experimental data.
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This chapter provides an overview of the Japanese regulatory issues regarding pesticide use in rice paddies and an introduction of the new pesticide registration program. In addition, the experience of the environmental monitoring of pesticides and the modeling approaches used for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in surface water and ground water systems adjacent to rice paddies in Japan are also discussed. Japan has been one of the major pesticide users in the world. Although having a long history in rice cultivation, the pesticide exposure assessment for paddy rice production received less attention compared with EU and US. Applications of up-to-date techniques and the development of realistic assessment procedures under specific climatic conditions as well as mitigation management practices for controlling pesticide contamination are important for an environmental-friendly rice production. Through the international cooperation and research exchanges, advances in pesticide risk assessment for rice paddies in Asian region and other rice-growing areas in the world would contribute to sustainable rice production. Transplanting of rice seedlings grows almost all rice paddies in Japan. The land preparation starts around April and June, and the harvest season lasts from August to October depending on the region and the rice varieties. Most of the rice paddies are treated with herbicides and other crop protection products, such as fungicides and insecticides that are applied during the crop season accordingly. Newly developed insecticides and fungicides are also applied during seedbed preparation.
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Improving access to safe drinking water can result in multi-dimensional impacts on people's livelihood. This has been aptly reflected in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) as one of the major objectives. Despite the availability of diverse and complex set of technologies for water purification, pragmatic and cost-effective use of the same is impeding the use of available sources of water. Hence, in country like India simple low-energy technologies such as solar still are likely to succeed. Solar stills would suffice the basic minimum drinking water requirements of man. Solar stills use sunlight, to kill or inactivate many, if not all, of the pathogens found in water. This paper provides an integrated assessment of the suitability of domestic solar still as a viable safe water technology for India. Also an attempt has been made to critically assess the operational feasibility and costs incurred for using this technology in rural India.
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Background Because many acute cerebral ischemic events are caused by rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis, the present study used both idealized and patient-specific carotid atheromatous plaque models to evaluate the effect of structural determinants on stress distributions within plaque. Methods and Results Using a finite element method, structural analysis was performed using models derived from in vivo high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of carotid atheroma in 40 non-consecutive patients (20 symptomatic, 20 asymptomatic). Plaque components were modeled as hyper-elastic materials. The effects of varying fibrous cap thickness, lipid core size and lumen curvature on plaque stress distributions were examined. Lumen curvature and fibrous cap thickness were found to be major determinants of plaque stress. The size of the lipid core did not alter plaque stress significantly when the fibrous cap was relatively thick. The correlation between plaque stress and lumen curvature was significant for both symptomatic (p = 0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.689) and asymptomatic patients (p = 0.01; correlation coefficient: 0.862). Lumen curvature in plaques of symptomatic patients was significantly larger than those of asymptomatic patients (1.50±1.0mm-1 vs 1.25±0.75 mm-1; p = 0.01). Conclusion Specific plaque morphology (large lumen curvature and thin fibrous cap) is closely related to plaque vulnerability. Structural analysis using high-resolution MRI of carotid atheroma may help in detecting vulnerable atheromatous plaque and aid the risk stratification of patients with carotid disease.
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A profluorescent nitroxide possessing an isoindoline nitroxide moiety linked to a perylene fluorophore was developed to monitor radical mediated degradation of melamine-formaldehyde crosslinked polyester coil coatings in an industry standard accelerated weathering tester. Trapping of polyester-derived radicals (most likely C-radicals) that are generated during polymer degradation leads to fluorescent closed-shell alkoxy amines, which was used to obtain time-dependent degradation profiles to assess the relative stability of different polyesters towards weathering. The nitroxide probe couples excellent thermal stability and satisfactory photostability with high sensitivity and enables detection of free radical damage in polyesters under conditions that mimic exposure to the environment on a time scale of hours rather than months or years required by other testing methods. There are indications that the profluorescent nitroxide undergoes partial photo-degradation in the absence of polymer-derived radicals. Unexpectedly, it was also found that UV-induced fragmentation of the NO–C bond in closed-shell alkoxy amines leads to regeneration of the profluorescent nitroxide and the respective C-radical. The maximum fluorescence intensity that could be achieved with a given probe concentration is therefore not only determined by the amount of polyester radicals formed during accelerated weathering, but also by the light-driven side reactions of the profluorescent nitroxide and the corresponding alkoxy amine radical trapping products. Studies to determine the optimum probe concentration in the polymer matrix revealed that aggregation and re-absorption effects lowered the fluorescence intensity at higher concentrations of the profluorescent nitroxide, but too low probe concentrations, where these effects would be avoided, were not sufficient to trap the amount of polyester radicals formed upon weathering. The optimized experimental conditions were used to assess the impact of temperature and UV irradiance on polymer degradation during accelerated weathering.
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The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.
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Movement of tephritid flies underpins their survival, reproduction, and ability to establish in new areas and is thus of importance when designing effective management strategies. Much of the knowledge currently available on tephritid movement throughout landscapes comes from the use of direct or indirect methods that rely on the trapping of individuals. Here, we review published experimental designs and methods from mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies, as well as other methods, that have been used to estimate movement of the four major tephritid pest genera (Bactrocera, Ceratitis, Anastrepha, and Rhagoletis). In doing so, we aim to illustrate the theoretical and practical considerations needed to study tephritid movement. MRR studies make use of traps to directly estimate the distance that tephritid species can move within a generation and to evaluate the ecological and physiological factors that influence dispersal patterns. MRR studies, however, require careful planning to ensure that the results obtained are not biased by the methods employed, including marking methods, trap properties, trap spacing, and spatial extent of the trapping array. Despite these obstacles, MRR remains a powerful tool for determining tephritid movement, with data particularly required for understudied species that affect developing countries. To ensure that future MRR studies are successful, we suggest that site selection be carefully considered and sufficient resources be allocated to achieve optimal spacing and placement of traps in line with the stated aims of each study. An alternative to MRR is to make use of indirect methods for determining movement, or more correctly, gene flow, which have become widely available with the development of molecular tools. Key to these methods is the trapping and sequencing of a suitable number of individuals to represent the genetic diversity of the sampled population and investigate population structuring using nuclear genomic markers or non-recombinant mitochondrial DNA markers. Microsatellites are currently the preferred marker for detecting recent population displacement and provide genetic information that may be used in assignment tests for the direct determination of contemporary movement. Neither MRR nor molecular methods, however, are able to monitor fine-scale movements of individual flies. Recent developments in the miniaturization of electronics offer the tantalising possibility to track individual movements of insects using harmonic radar. Computer vision and radio frequency identification tags may also permit the tracking of fine-scale movements by tephritid flies by automated resampling, although these methods come with the same problems as traditional traps used in MRR studies. Although all methods described in this chapter have limitations, a better understanding of tephritid movement far outweighs the drawbacks of the individual methods because of the need for this information to manage tephritid populations.
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The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1 year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.
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Human exposures in transportation microenvironments are poorly represented by ambient stationary monitoring. A number of on-road studies using vehicle-based mobile monitoring have been conducted to address this. Most previous studies were conducted on urban roads in developed countries where the primary emission source was vehicles. Few studies have examined on-road pollution in developing countries in urban settings. Currently, no study has been conducted for roadways in rural environments where a substantial proportion of the population live. This study aimed to characterize on-road air quality on the East-West Highway (EWH) in Bhutan and identify its principal sources. We conducted six mobile measurements of PM10, particle number (PN) count and CO along the entire 570 km length of the EWH. We divided the EWH into five segments, R1-R5, taking the road length between two district towns as a single road segment. The pollutant concentrations varied widely along the different road segments, with the highest concentrations for R5 compared with other road segments (PM10 = 149 µg/m3, PN = 5.74 × 104 particles/cm-3, CO = 0.19 ppm), which is the final segment of the road to the capital. Apart from vehicle emissions, the dominant sources were road works, unpaved roads and roadside combustion activities. Overall, the highest contributions above the background levels were made by unpaved roads for PM10 (6 times background), and vehicle emissions for PN and CO (5 and 15 times background, respectively). Notwithstanding the differences in instrumentation used and particle size range measured, the current study showed lower PN concentrations compared with similar on-road studies. However, concentrations were still high enough that commuters, road maintenance workers and residents living along the EWH, were potentially exposed to elevated pollutant concentrations from combustion and non-combustion sources. Future studies should focus on assessing the dispersion patterns of roadway pollutants and defining the short- and long-term health impacts of exposure in Bhutan, as well as in other developing countries with similar characteristics.
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Objective: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a life-long condition, but because of its historical status as a self-remitting disorder of childhood, empirically validated and reliable methods for the assessment of adults are scarce. In this study, the validity and reliability of the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) and the Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), which survey childhood and current symptoms of ADHD, respectively, were studied in a Finnish sample. Methods: The self-rating scales were administered to adults with an ADHD diagnosis (n = 38), healthy control participants (n = 41), and adults diagnosed with dyslexia (n = 37). Items of the self-rating scales were subjected to factor analyses, after which the reliability and discriminatory power of the subscales, derived from the factors, were examined. The effects of group and gender on the subscales of both rating scales were studied. Additionally, the effect of age on the subscales of the WURS was investigated. Finally, the diagnostic accuracy of the total scores was studied. Results: On the basis of the factor analyses, a four-factor structure for the WURS and five-factor structure for the APQ had the best fit to the data. All of the subscales of the APQ and three of the WURS achieved sufficient reliability. The ADHD group had the highest scores on all of the subscales of the APQ, whereas two of the subscales of the WURS did not statistically differ between the ADHD and the Dyslexia group. None of the subscales of the WURS or the APQ was associated with the participant's gender. However, one subscale of the WURS describing dysthymia was positively correlated with the participant's age. With the WURS, the probability of a correct positive classification was .59 in the current sample and .21 when the relatively low prevalence of adult ADHD was taken into account. The probabilities of correct positive classifications with the APQ were .71 and .23, respectively. Conclusions: The WURS and the APQ can provide accurate and reliable information of childhood and adult ADHD symptoms, given some important constraints. Classifications made on the basis of the total scores are reliable predictors of ADHD diagnosis only in populations with a high proportion of ADHD and a low proportion of other similar disorders. The subscale scores can provide detailed information of an individual's symptoms if the characteristics and limitations of each domain are taken into account. Improvements are suggested for two subscales of the WURS.
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Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.
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Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.
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Recently, second-generation (non-vegetable oil) feedstocks for biodiesel production are receiving significant attention due to the cost and social effects connected with utilising food products for the production of energy products. The Beauty leaf tree (Calophyllum inophyllum) is a potential source of non-edible oil for producing second-generation biodiesel because of its suitability for production in an extensive variety of atmospheric condition, easy cultivation, high fruit production rate, and the high oil content in the seed. In this study, oil was extracted from Beauty leaf tree seeds through three different oil extraction methods. The important physical and chemical properties of these extracted Beauty leaf oils were experimentally analysed and compared with other commercially available vegetable oils. Biodiesel was produced using a two-stage esterification process combining of an acid catalysed pre-esterification process and an alkali catalysed transesterification process. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles and important physicochemical properties were experimentally measured and estimated using equations based on the FAME analysis. The quality of Beauty leaf biodiesels was assessed and compared with commercially available biodiesels through multivariate data analysis using PROMETHEE-GAIA software. The results show that mechanical extraction using a screw press produces oil at a low cost, however, results in low oil yields compared with chemical oil extraction. High pressure and temperature in the extraction process increase oil extraction performance. On the contrary, this process increases the free fatty acid content in the oil. A clear difference was found in the physical properties of Beauty leaf oils, which eventually affected the oil to biodiesel conversion process. However, Beauty leaf oils methyl esters (biodiesel) were very consistent physicochemical properties and able to meet almost all indicators of biodiesel standards. Overall this study found that Beauty leaf is a suitable feedstock for producing second-generation biodiesel in commercial scale. Therefore, the findings of this study are expected to serve as the basis for further development of Beauty leaf as a feedstock for industrial scale second-generation biodiesel production.
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The strategic objectives of Turf Australia (formerly the Turf Producers Association (TPA)) relating to water use in turf are to: • Source and collate information to support the case for adequate access to water for the Turf production and maintenance sectors and • Compile information generated into a convincing communication package that can be readily used by the industry in its advocacy programs (to government, regulators, media etc) More specifically, the turfgrass industry needs unbiased scientific evidence of the value of healthy grass in our environment. It needs to promote the use of adequate water even during drought periods to maintain quality turfgrass, which provides many benefits to the broader community including cooling the environment, saving energy and encouraging healthy lifestyles. The many environmental, social and health benefits of living turfgrass have been the subject of numerous investigations beyond the scope of this review. However further research is needed to fully understand the economic returns achievable by the judicious use of water for the maintenance of healthy turfgrass. Consumer education, backed by scientific evidence will highlight the “false economy” in allowing turfgrass to wither and die during conditions which require high level water restrictions. This report presents a review of the literature pertaining to research in the field of turf water use. The purpose of the review was to better understand the scope and nature of existing research results on turf water relations so that knowledge gaps could be identified in achieving the above strategic objectives of the TPA. Research to date has been found to be insufficient to compile a convincing communication package as described. However, identified knowledge gaps can now be addressed through targeted research. Information derived from targeted research will provide valuable material for education of the end user of turfgrass. Recommendations have been developed, based on the results of this desktop review. It was determined that future research in the field of turf irrigation needs to focus on a number of key factors which directly or indirectly affect the relationship between turfgrass and water use. These factors are: • Climate • Cultivar • Quality • Site use requirements • Establishment and management The overarching recommendation is to develop a strategic plan for turfgrass water relations research based around the five determinants of turf water use listed above. This plan should ensure research under these five categories is integrated into a holistic approach by which the consumer can be guided in species and/or cultivar choices as well as best management practices with respect to turfgrass water relations. Worsening drought cycles and limited supply of water for irrigation were the key factors driving every research project reviewed in this report. Subsidence of the most recent (or current) drought conditions in Australia should not be viewed by the turf industry as a reason to withdraw support or funding for research in this area. Drought conditions, limited domestic water availability and urban water restrictions will return in Australia albeit in 5, 10 or 20 years time and the turf industry has an opportunity to prepare for that time.