Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

Intravitreal ranibizumab for age-related macular degeneration : optical coherence tomography guided retreatment intervals and their intra- and inter-individual variability

Purpose: To determine whether the need for retreatment after an initial phase of 3 monthly intravitreal injections of ranibizumab shows an intra-individual regular rhythm and to what degree it varies between different patients. Methods: Prospective study with 42 patients with exudative AMD, treatment naïve. Loading dose of 3 monthly doses of ranibizumab (0,5 mg), followed by a 12 months pro re nata (PRN) regimen according to early exudative signs on HD-OCT Cirrus, Zeiss. The follow-up visits were intensified (week 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20, etc after each injection) in order to detect recurrences early, and injection followed within 3 days in cases of subretinal fluid, cysts, or central thickness increase of>50microns. Intervals were calculated between injections for the 12 month follow-up with PRN treatment. Variability was expressed as standard deviation (SD). Results: Visual acuity (VA) improved from a mean ETDRS score of 61.6 (SD 10.8) at baseline to 68.0 (SD 10.2) at month 3 and to 74.7(SD 9.0) at month 12. The 15 patients who have already completed the study showed maintenance of the VA improvement. Central foveal thickness improved from a mean value of 366 microns (baseline) to 253 microns (month 3), well maintained thereafter. Mean number of injections was 8.8 (SD 3.5,range 0-12) per 12 months of follow-up (after 3 doses), with mean individual treatment-recurrence (TR) intervals ranging from 28->365 days (mean 58). Intraindividual variability of TR intervals (SD) was 7.1 days as a mean value (range 1.7¡V22.6). It ranged within 20% of the mean intra-individual interval for 30 (91%) and within 15% for 21 patients (64%). The first interval was within 1 week of the mean intra-individual interval in 64% and within 2 weeks in 89% of patients. Conclusions: The majority of AMD patients showed a relatively stable rhythm for PRN injections of ranibizumab after initial loading phase, associated with excellent functional/anatomical results. The initial interval last loading dose-first recurrence may have a predictive value for further need of treatment, potentially facilitating follow-up and patient care.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.

Longer Intervals Between Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation and Subsequent 90Y-Ibritumomab Radioimmunotherapy May Correlate With Better Tolerance.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of radioimmunotherapy (RIT) in recurrent lymphoma after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). METHODS: We reviewed 9 patients, 7 with follicular lymphoma (DLBCL), 1 with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), and 1 with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan 6 to 140 months after HSCT. Patients underwent In-ibritumomab scintigraphy and were treated 1 week later with standard 14.8 MBq/kg (n = 4) or 11.1 MBq/kg (n = 4) Y-ibritumomab. One patient who had allo-HSCT had reduced activity (70%) treatment. RESULTS: Among the 7 FL patients, we observed complete response (CR) in 2 patients and partial response (PR) in 5 patients. One patient with CR relapsed after 15 months; the other persisted 43.5 months after RIT. Of 5 patients with PR, 3 relapsed between 13 and 17 months; 1 persisted until unrelated death at 11.5 months. The fifth patient with PR received adoptive immunotherapy and improved to metabolic (FDG-PET) CR that persists 45.5 and 41 months after Y-ibritumomab and immunotherapy, respectively. Patients with MCL and DLBCL progressed or experienced stabilization (5 months), respectively. Six patients had grade 1 to 3 bone marrow (BM) toxicity and recovered within 3 months. Three patients having Y-ibritumomab 6, 14, and 24 months after HSCT experienced grade 4 BM toxicity. One of them (RIT 24 months after HSCT) recovered after 3 months, another delayed after 9 months, and the third patient only partially recovered, eventually developed myelodysplasia, and was allografted. CONCLUSIONS: Radioimmunotherapy after HSCT is an effective rescue therapy in FL. However, BM toxicity may be important; 3 of 8 patients treated with standard Y-ibritumomab activity experienced grade 4 BM toxicity, with incomplete recovery 3 months after RIT in 2 patients, both treated early (6 and 14 months) after HSCT.

Follicular lymphoma at relapse after rituximab containing regimens: comparison of time to event intervals prior to and after (90) Y-ibritumomab-tiuxetan.

Radioimmunotherapies with Zevalin® (RIT-Z) showed encouraging results in patients with relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma (FL), leading frequently to failure-free intervals longer than those achieved by the last previous therapy. We compared time-to-event variables obtained before and after RIT-Z in patients with relapsed FL, previously exposed to rituximab. All patients with relapsed non-transformed, non-refractory, non-rituximab-naïve FL who have been treated with RIT-Z in two different centres in Europe were included. Staging and response were assessed by contrast-enhanced CT in all patients; PET/CT was performed according to local availability. Event-free survival (EFS) and time to next treatment (TTNT) following the last previous therapy and after RIT-Z were compared. Pre-therapy characteristics were tested in univariate analyses for prediction of outcomes. A description of the patterns of relapse was also provided. Among 70 patients treated, only 16 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. They were treated with a median of 3 prior lines of chemo-immunotherapies, including a median of 2 rituximab-containing regimens; 6 patients had undergone myeloablative chemotherapy with autologous stem cell rescue (ASCT). Overall response rates were 10 (62%) CR/CRu, 3 (19%) PR and 3 (19%) PD; response rates were similar in patients with prior ASCT. After RIT-Z only few patients obtained EFS and TTNT longer than after the last previous therapy. All four patients receiving rituximab maintenance were without progression 12 months after RIT-Z. Relapses occurred in both previously and newly involved sites; a significant association was found between the number of pathologic sites involved prior to RIT-Z and subsequent TTNT. Despite the excellent response rate, the duration of response was shorter than the previous one confirming the known trend of relapses to occur earlier after subsequent treatments. Rituximab maintenance after RIT-Z showed encouraging results in terms of prolonging EFS, warranting further studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interventions aiming at balance confidence improvement in older adults: an updated review.

BACKGROUND: Loss of balance confidence is a frequent condition that affects 20-75% of community-dwelling older persons. Although a recent fall is a common trigger, loss of balance confidence also appears independent of previous experience with falls. Maintaining or improving balance confidence is important to avoid unnecessary, self-imposed restrictions of activity and subsequent disability. Holding another person's hand or using an assistive device while walking are simple interventions that are used naturally to address poor balance confidence in daily life. However, more complex interventions have also been developed and tested to achieve more sustained improvement in balance confidence. OBJECTIVES: This review describes interventions that have been tested to improve balance confidence in older community-dwelling persons. METHODS: Based on 2 recent systematic reviews, an additional search for literature was performed to update current information on interventions aiming at balance confidence improvement. Interventions were classified as those directly aimed at increasing balance confidence or not, and further stratified into those using monofactorial or multifactorial approaches. RESULTS: A total of 46 randomized controlled trials were identified. Five of the 8 interventions that directly targeted balance confidence showed benefits. Among those, multicomponent behavioral group interventions provided the most robust evidence of benefits in improving balance confidence and in decreasing activity avoidance. Among interventions not directly aiming at balance confidence improvement (11/21 studies with benefits), exercise (including tai chi) appears as the most promising monofactorial intervention. Nine of the 17 multifactorial fall prevention programs showed an effect on balance confidence, exercise being a main component in 7 of these 9 studies. Interventions that targeted elderly persons reporting poor balance confidence and/or those at risk for falls seemed more likely to be beneficial. CONCLUSIONS: Positive and sometimes sustained improvement in balance confidence can be achieved by various interventions among community-dwelling elderly persons. The effect of these interventions on activity restriction associated with poor balance confidence have been less well studied, but some studies also suggest potential benefits.

Intravitreal ranibizumab for age-related macular degeneration - optical coherence tomography guided retreatment intervals and their intra- and inter-individual variability

PURPOSE:To determine whether the need for retreatment after an initial loading phase of 3 monthly intravitreal injections of ranibizumab shows an intra-individual regular rhythm and to what degree it varies between different patients.SETTING:Prospective mono-centre cohort study.METHODS:Prospective study with 42 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD), treatment na?ve, giving informed consent. Loading dose of 3 monthly doses of ranibizumab (0,5mg), followed by a 12 months pro re nata (PRN) regimen according to early exudative signs on spectral domain optical coherence tomography (HD-OCT Cirrus Zeiss?, cube 512x126). The follow-up visits were intensified (week 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20, 24, etc after each injection) in order to detect exudative recurrences early, and injection followed within 3 days in cases of subretinal fluid, or intraretinal cysts, or central thickness increase of >50?m. Intervals were calculated between injections and the following recurrence was calculated for the 12 month follow-up with PRN treatment. Variability was expressed as standard deviation (SD). RESULTS Visual acuity (VA) improved from a mean ETDRS letter score of 61.6 (SD 10.8) at baseline to 68.0 (SD 10.2, +6.4 letters) at month 3 and increased further to 74.7 (SD 9.0, +13.1 letters from baseline) at month 12. The 15 patients who have completed the study by October 2010 showed maintenance of the VA improvement. Retinal thickness of the central foveal subfield improved from a mean value of 366?m(baseline) to 253?m(month 3), well maintained thereafter. Mean number of injections was 8.8 (SD 3.5) per 12 months of follow-up (after 3 loading doses), ranging from 0 to 12, with mean individual treatment-recurrence intervals ranging from 28 to >365 days (mean 58 days). Intraindividual variability of treatment-recurrence intervals, measured as SD of the individual intervals, was 7.1days as a mean value(range 1.7 ? 22.6 days) for the 33 patients with more than 1 injection during follow-up. SD was higher for longer intervals of an individual patient. It ranged within 20% of the mean intra-individual interval for 30 patients(91%) and within 15% for 21 patients(64%). The first interval was within 1 week of the mean intra-individual interval in 64% of patients and within 2 weeks in 89% of patients.CONCLUSIONS:The majority of AMD patients showed a relatively stable rhythm for PRN injections of intravitreal ranibizumab after initial loading phase, associated with excellent functional and anatomical results. The initial interval between last loading dose and first recurrence may have a predictive value for further need of treatment, therefore potentially facilitating follow-up and patient care.

Validation of a wrist monitor for accurate estimation of RR intervals during sleep.

While the incidence of sleep disorders is continuously increasing in western societies, there is a clear demand for technologies to asses sleep-related parameters in ambulatory scenarios. The present study introduces a novel concept of accurate sensor to measure RR intervals via the analysis of photo-plethysmographic signals recorded at the wrist. In a cohort of 26 subjects undergoing full night polysomnography, the wrist device provided RR interval estimates in agreement with RR intervals as measured from standard electrocardiographic time series. The study showed an overall agreement between both approaches of 0.05 ± 18 ms. The novel wrist sensor opens the door towards a new generation of comfortable and easy-to-use sleep monitors.

Estimating the confidence level of white matter connections obtained with MRI tractography.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of diffusion tensor imaging, a lot of work has been done to better understand the properties of diffusion MRI tractography. However, the validation of the reconstructed fiber connections remains problematic in many respects. For example, it is difficult to assess whether a connection is the result of the diffusion coherence contrast itself or the simple result of other uncontrolled parameters like for example: noise, brain geometry and algorithmic characteristics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work, we propose a method to estimate the respective contributions of diffusion coherence versus other effects to a tractography result by comparing data sets with and without diffusion coherence contrast. We use this methodology to assign a confidence level to every gray matter to gray matter connection and add this new information directly in the connectivity matrix. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that whereas we can have a strong confidence in mid- and long-range connections obtained by a tractography experiment, it is difficult to distinguish between short connections traced due to diffusion coherence contrast from those produced by chance due to the other uncontrolled factors of the tractography methodology.

Polymorphisms in toll-like receptor 4 and toll-like receptor 9 influence viral load in a seroincident cohort of HIV-1-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are innate immune sensors that are integral to resisting chronic and opportunistic infections. Mounting evidence implicates TLR polymorphisms in susceptibilities to various infectious diseases, including HIV-1. We investigated the impact of TLR single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on clinical outcome in a seroincident cohort of HIV-1-infected volunteers. DESIGN: We analyzed TLR SNPs in 201 antiretroviral treatment-naive HIV-1-infected volunteers from a longitudinal seroincident cohort with regular follow-up intervals (median follow-up 4.2 years, interquartile range 4.4). Participants were stratified into two groups according to either disease progression, defined as peripheral blood CD4(+) T-cell decline over time, or peak and setpoint viral load. METHODS: Haplotype tagging SNPs from TLR2, TLR3, TLR4, and TLR9 were detected by mass array genotyping, and CD4(+) T-cell counts and viral load measurements were determined prior to antiretroviral therapy initiation. The association of TLR haplotypes with viral load and rapid progression was assessed by multivariate regression models using age and sex as covariates. RESULTS: Two TLR4 SNPs in strong linkage disequilibrium [1063 A/G (D299G) and 1363 C/T (T399I)] were more frequent among individuals with high peak viral load compared with low/moderate peak viral load (odds ratio 6.65, 95% confidence interval 2.19-20.46, P < 0.001; adjusted P = 0.002 for 1063 A/G). In addition, a TLR9 SNP previously associated with slow progression was found less frequently among individuals with high viral setpoint compared with low/moderate setpoint (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.13-0.65, P = 0.003, adjusted P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: This study suggests a potentially new role for TLR4 polymorphisms in HIV-1 peak viral load and confirms a role for TLR9 polymorphisms in disease progression.

Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

BACKGROUND: Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. Aims of Study: 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. RESULTS: Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62) was. CONCLUSIONS: High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78822107.