Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Microencapsulation of casein hydrolysate by complex coacervation with SPI/pectin

The aim of this work was to encapsulate casein hydrolysate by complex coacervation with soybean protein isolate (SPI)/pectin. Three treatments were studied with wall material to core ratio of 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3. The samples were evaluated for morphological characteristics, moisture, hygroscopicity, solubility, hydrophobicity, surface tension, encapsulation efficiency and bitter taste with a trained sensory panel using a paired comparison test. The samples were very stable in cold water. The hydrophobicity decreased inversely with the hydrolysate content in the microcapsule. Encapsulated samples had lower hygroscopicity values than free hydrolysate. The encapsulation efficiency varied from 91.62% to 78.8%. Encapsulated samples had similar surface tension, higher values than free hydrolysate. The results of the sensory panel test considering the encapsulated samples less bitter (P < 0.05) than the free hydroly-state, showed that complex coacervation with SPI/pectin as wall material was an efficient method for microencapsulation and attenuation of the bitter taste of the hydrolysate. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

GALAXY EVOLUTION IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT: A MULTI-WAVELENGTH STUDY OF HCG 7

The environment where galaxies are found heavily influences their evolution. Close groupings, like the ones in the cores of galaxy clusters or compact groups, evolve in ways far more dramatic than their isolated counterparts. We have conducted a multi-wavelength study of Hickson Compact Group 7 (HCG 7), consisting of four giant galaxies: three spirals and one lenticular. We use Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging to identify and characterize the young and old star cluster populations. We find young massive clusters (YMCs) mostly in the three spirals, while the lenticular features a large, unimodal population of globular clusters (GCs) but no detectable clusters with ages less than a few Gyr. The spatial and approximate age distributions of the similar to 300 YMCs and similar to 150 GCs thus hint at a regular star formation history in the group over a Hubble time. While at first glance the HST data show the galaxies as undisturbed, our deep ground-based, wide-field imaging that extends the HST coverage reveals faint signatures of stellar material in the intragroup medium (IGM). We do not, however, detect the IGM in H I or Chandra X-ray observations, signatures that would be expected to arise from major mergers. Despite this fact, we find that the H I gas content of the individual galaxies and the group as a whole are a third of the expected abundance. The appearance of quiescence is challenged by spectroscopy that reveals an intense ionization continuum in one galaxy nucleus, and post-burst characteristics in another. Our spectroscopic survey of dwarf galaxy members yields a single dwarf elliptical galaxy in an apparent stellar tidal feature. Based on all this information, we suggest an evolutionary scenario for HCG 7, whereby the galaxies convert most of their available gas into stars without the influence of major mergers and ultimately result in a dry merger. As the conditions governing compact groups are reminiscent of galaxies at intermediate redshift, we propose that HCGs are appropriate for studying galaxy evolution at z similar to 1-2.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - II. Systems with a more massive inner planet

This paper presents the second part in our study of the global structure of the planar phase space of the planetary three-body problem, when both planets lie in the vicinity of a 2/1 mean-motion resonance. While Paper I was devoted to cases where the outer planet is the more massive body, the present work is devoted to the cases where the more massive body is the inner planet. As before, outside the well-known Apsidal Corotation Resonances (ACR), the phase space shows a complex picture marked by the presence of several distinct regimes of resonant and non-resonant motion, crossed by families of periodic orbits and separated by chaotic zones. When the chosen values of the integrals of motion lead to symmetric ACR, the global dynamics are generally similar to the structure presented in Paper I. However, for asymmetric ACR the resonant phase space is strikingly different and shows a galore of distinct dynamical states. This structure is shown with the help of dynamical maps constructed on two different representative planes, one centred on the unstable symmetric ACR and the other on the stable asymmetric equilibrium solution. Although the study described in the work may be applied to any mass ratio, we present a detailed analysis for mass values similar to the Jupiter-Saturn case. Results give a global view of the different dynamical states available to resonant planets with these characteristics. Some of these dynamical paths could have marked the evolution of the giant planets of our Solar system, assuming they suffered a temporary capture in the 2/1 resonance during the latest stages of the formation of our Solar system.

Discrete retinal input to the parabrachial complex of a new-world primate, the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus)

Traditional retinal projections target three functionally complementary systems it) the brain of mammals: the primary visual system, the visuomotor integration systems and the circadian timing system. In recent years, studies in several animals have been conducted to investigate the retinal projections to these three systems, despite some evidence of additional targets. The aim of this study was to disclose a previously unknown connection between the retina and the parabrachial complex of the common marmoset, by means of the intraocular injection of cholera toxin Subunit b. A few labeled retinal fibers/terminals that are detected in the medial parabrachial portion of the marmoset brain show clear varicosities, Suggesting terminal fields. Although the possible role of these projections remains unknown, they may provide a modulation of the cholinergic parabrachial neurons which project to the thalamic dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organization of ventral tegmental area projections to the ventral tegmental area-nigral complex in the rat

The ventral tegmental area (VTA) is a nodal link in reward circuitry. Based on its striatal output, it has been subdivided in a caudomedial part which targets the ventromedial striatum, and a lateral part which targets the ventrolateral striatum [Ikemoto S (2007) Dopamine reward circuitry: two projection systems from the ventral midbrain to the nucleus accumbens-olfactory tubercle complex. Brain Res Rev 56:27-78]. Whether these two VTA parts are interconnected and to what extent the VTA innervates the substantia nigra compacta (SNc) and retrorubral nucleus (RR) are critical issues for understanding information processing in the basal ganglia. Here, VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex were examined in rats, using Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin (PHA-L) as anterograde tracer. The results show that the dorsolateral VTA projects to itself, as well as to the dorsal tier of the SNc and RR, largely avoiding the caudomedial VTA. The ventrolateral VTA innervates mainly the interfascicular nucleus. The components of the caudomedial VTA (the interfascicular, paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) are connected with each other. In addition, the caudomedial VTA (especially the paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) innervates the lateral VTA, and, to a lesser degree, the SNc and RR. The caudal pole of the VTA sends robust, bilateral projections to virtually all the VTA-nigral complex, which terminate in the dorsal and ventral tiers. Modest inputs from the medial supramammillary nucleus to ventromedial parts of the VTA-nigral complex were also identified. In double-immunostained sections, PHA-L-labeled varicosities were sometimes found apposed to tyrosine hydroxylase-positive neurons in the ventral mesencephalon. Overall, the results underscore that VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex are substantial and topically organized. In general, these projections, like the spiralated striato-nigro-striatal loops, display a medial-to-lateral organization. This anatomical arrangement conceivably permits the ventromedial striatum to influence the activity of the lateral striatum. The caudal pole of the VTA appears to be a critical site for a global recruitment of the mesotelencephalic system. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Slicing the metric space to provide quick indexing of complex data in the main memory

Searching in a dataset for elements that are similar to a given query element is a core problem in applications that manage complex data, and has been aided by metric access methods (MAMs). A growing number of applications require indices that must be built faster and repeatedly, also providing faster response for similarity queries. The increase in the main memory capacity and its lowering costs also motivate using memory-based MAMs. In this paper. we propose the Onion-tree, a new and robust dynamic memory-based MAM that slices the metric space into disjoint subspaces to provide quick indexing of complex data. It introduces three major characteristics: (i) a partitioning method that controls the number of disjoint subspaces generated at each node; (ii) a replacement technique that can change the leaf node pivots in insertion operations; and (iii) range and k-NN extended query algorithms to support the new partitioning method, including a new visit order of the subspaces in k-NN queries. Performance tests with both real-world and synthetic datasets showed that the Onion-tree is very compact. Comparisons of the Onion-tree with the MM-tree and a memory-based version of the Slim-tree showed that the Onion-tree was always faster to build the index. The experiments also showed that the Onion-tree significantly improved range and k-NN query processing performance and was the most efficient MAM, followed by the MM-tree, which in turn outperformed the Slim-tree in almost all the tests. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gevrey solvability near the characteristic set for a class of planar complex vector fields of infinite type

We study the Gevrey solvability of a class of complex vector fields, defined on Omega(epsilon) = (-epsilon, epsilon) x S(1), given by L = partial derivative/partial derivative t + (a(x) + ib(x))partial derivative/partial derivative x, b not equivalent to 0, near the characteristic set Sigma = {0} x S(1). We show that the interplay between the order of vanishing of the functions a and b at x = 0 plays a role in the Gevrey solvability. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scalable model-based configuration management of security services in complex enterprise networks

Security administrators face the challenge of designing, deploying and maintaining a variety of configuration files related to security systems, especially in large-scale networks. These files have heterogeneous syntaxes and follow differing semantic concepts. Nevertheless, they are interdependent due to security services having to cooperate and their configuration to be consistent with each other, so that global security policies are completely and correctly enforced. To tackle this problem, our approach supports a comfortable definition of an abstract high-level security policy and provides an automated derivation of the desired configuration files. It is an extension of policy-based management and policy hierarchies, combining model-based management (MBM) with system modularization. MBM employs an object-oriented model of the managed system to obtain the details needed for automated policy refinement. The modularization into abstract subsystems (ASs) segment the system-and the model-into units which more closely encapsulate related system components and provide focused abstract views. As a result, scalability is achieved and even comprehensive IT systems can be modelled in a unified manner. The associated tool MoBaSeC (Model-Based-Service-Configuration) supports interactive graphical modelling, automated model analysis and policy refinement with the derivation of configuration files. We describe the MBM and AS approaches, outline the tool functions and exemplify their applications and results obtained. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Formal validation of automated policy refinement in the management of network security systems

Policy hierarchies and automated policy refinement are powerful approaches to simplify administration of security services in complex network environments. A crucial issue for the practical use of these approaches is to ensure the validity of the policy hierarchy, i.e. since the policy sets for the lower levels are automatically derived from the abstract policies (defined by the modeller), we must be sure that the derived policies uphold the high-level ones. This paper builds upon previous work on Model-based Management, particularly on the Diagram of Abstract Subsystems approach, and goes further to propose a formal validation approach for the policy hierarchies yielded by the automated policy refinement process. We establish general validation conditions for a multi-layered policy model, i.e. necessary and sufficient conditions that a policy hierarchy must satisfy so that the lower-level policy sets are valid refinements of the higher-level policies according to the criteria of consistency and completeness. Relying upon the validation conditions and upon axioms about the model representativeness, two theorems are proved to ensure compliance between the resulting system behaviour and the abstract policies that are modelled.

Confinement-induced phase transition in a DNA-lipid hydrated complex

We study the effect of the soft confinement by fluid lipid bilayers on the spatial organisation of DNA molecules in a DNA-zwitterionic lipid hydrated lamellar complex. The confinement is increased by dehydrating the complex in a controlled way, which leads to a decrease of the water channel thickness separating the periodically stacked bilayers. Using grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering on an oriented thin film, we probe in situ as dehydration proceeds the structure of the DNA-lipid complex. A structural phase transition is evidenced, where an apparently disordered phase of DNA rods embedded within the one-dimensionally ordered lipid lamellar phase observed at high hydration is replaced by a 2D hexagonal structure of DNA molecules intercalated between the lipid bilayers. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2010

Thermodynamic Stabillity of Hydrogen-Bonded Systems in Polar and Nonpolar Environments

The thermodynamic properties of a selected set of benchmark hydrogen-bonded systems (acetic acid dimer and the complexes of acetic acid with acetamide and methanol) was studied with the goal of obtaining detailed information on solvent effects on the hydrogen-bonded interactions using water, chloroform, and n-heptane as representatives for a wide range in the dielectric constant. Solvent effects were investigated using both explicit and implicit solvation models. For the explicit description of the solvent, molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations in the isothermal isobaric (NpT) ensemble combined with the free energy perturbation technique were performed to determine solvation free energies. Within the implicit solvation approach, the polarizable continuum model and the conductor-like screening model were applied. Combination of gas phase results with the results obtained from the different solvation models through an appropriate thermodynamic cycle allows estimation of complexation free energies, enthalpies, and the respective entropic contributions in solution. Owing to the strong solvation effects of water the cyclic acetic acid dimer is not stable in aqueous solution. In less polar solvents the double hydrogen bond structure of the acetic acid dimer remains stable. This finding is in agreement with previous theoretical and experimental results. A similar trend as for the acetic acid dimer is also observed for the acetamide complex. The methanol complex was found to be thermodynamically unstable in gas phase as well as in any of the three solvents. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 31: 2046-2055, 2010

How complex a dynamical network can be?

Positive Lyapunov exponents measure the asymptotic exponential divergence of nearby trajectories of a dynamical system. Not only they quantify how chaotic a dynamical system is, but since their sum is an upper bound for the rate of information production, they also provide a convenient way to quantify the complexity of a dynamical network. We conjecture based on numerical evidences that for a large class of dynamical networks composed by equal nodes, the sum of the positive Lyapunov exponents is bounded by the sum of all the positive Lyapunov exponents of both the synchronization manifold and its transversal directions, the last quantity being in principle easier to compute than the latter. As applications of our conjecture we: (i) show that a dynamical network composed of equal nodes and whose nodes are fully linearly connected produces more information than similar networks but whose nodes are connected with any other possible connecting topology; (ii) show how one can calculate upper bounds for the information production of realistic networks whose nodes have parameter mismatches, randomly chosen: (iii) discuss how to predict the behavior of a large dynamical network by knowing the information provided by a system composed of only two coupled nodes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beyond the average: Detecting global singular nodes from local features in complex networks

Deviations from the average can provide valuable insights about the organization of natural systems. The present article extends this important principle to the systematic identification and analysis of singular motifs in complex networks. Six measurements quantifying different and complementary features of the connectivity around each node of a network were calculated, and multivariate statistical methods applied to identify singular nodes. The potential of the presented concepts and methodology was illustrated with respect to different types of complex real-world networks, namely the US air transportation network, the protein-protein interactions of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and the Roget thesaurus networks. The obtained singular motifs possessed unique functional roles in the networks. Three classic theoretical network models were also investigated, with the Barabasi-Albert model resulting in singular motifs corresponding to hubs, confirming the potential of the approach. Interestingly, the number of different types of singular node motifs as well as the number of their instances were found to be considerably higher in the real-world networks than in any of the benchmark networks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2009