960 resultados para Competing risks, Estimation of predator mortality, Over dispersion, Stochastic modeling
Resumo:
This paper deals with identification of dynamics in suction control of airfoils for low Reynolds number regimes (8 x 10^4 - 5 x 10^5). In particular, the dynamics of interest is the map that relates suction pressure and surface pressure. Identification of such dynamics is of use to a variety of active control applications including suction control in small/medium wind turbines which operate in these Reynolds number regimes. Prior research has largely focused on higher Reynolds number regimes, creating a need for such a study. Towards identifying the said dynamic relations, experiments were conducted on NACA0012 airfoil in a wind tunnel. The dynamic relation between suction and surface pressure was identified as an overdamped second order system.
Resumo:
Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.
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Consumption of milk and dairy products is considered one of the main routes of human exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Quantitative data on MAP load in raw cows’ milk are essential starting point for exposure assessment. Our study provides this information on a regional scale, estimating the load of MAP in bulk tank milk (BTM) produced in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). The survey was carried out on 2934 BTM samples (88.6% of the farms herein present) using two different target sequences for qPCR (f57 and IS900). Data about the performances of both qPCRs are also reported, highlighting the superior sensitivity of IS900-qPCR. Seven hundred and eighty-nine samples tested MAP-positive (apparent prevalence 26.9%) by IS900 qPCR. However, only 90 of these samples were quantifiable by qPCR. The quantifiable samples contained a median load of 32.4 MAP cells mL−1 (and maximum load of 1424 MAP cells mL−1). This study has shown that a small proportion (3.1%) of BTM samples from Emilia-Romagna region contained MAP in excess of the limit of detection (1.5 × 101 MAP cells mL−1), indicating low potential exposure for consumers if the milk subsequently undergoes pasteurization or if it is destined to typical hard cheese production.
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Li-ion batteries have been widely used in the EVs, and the battery thermal management is a key but challenging part of the battery management system. For EV batteries, only the battery surface temperature can be measured in real-time. However, it is the battery internal temperature that directly affects the battery performance, and large temperature difference may exist between surface and internal temperatures, especially in high power demand applications. In this paper, an online battery internal temperature estimation method is proposed based on a novel simplified thermoelectric model. The battery thermal behaviour is first described by a simplified thermal model, and battery electrical behaviour by an electric model. Then, these two models are interrelated to capture the interactions between battery thermal and electrical behaviours, thus offer a comprehensive description of the battery behaviour that is useful for battery management. Finally, based on the developed model, the battery internal temperature is estimated using an extended Kalman filter. The experimental results confirm the efficacy of the proposed method, and it can be used for online internal temperature estimation which is a key indicator for better real-time battery thermal management.
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In this paper, a recursive filter algorithm is developed to deal with the state estimation problem for power systems with quantized nonlinear measurements. The measurements from both the remote terminal units and the phasor measurement unit are subject to quantizations described by a logarithmic quantizer. Attention is focused on the design of a recursive filter such that, in the simultaneous presence of nonlinear measurements and quantization effects, an upper bound for the estimation error covariance is guaranteed and subsequently minimized. Instead of using the traditional approximation methods in nonlinear estimation that simply ignore the linearization errors, we treat both the linearization and quantization errors as norm-bounded uncertainties in the algorithm development so as to improve the performance of the estimator. For the power system with such kind of introduced uncertainties, a filter is designed in the framework of robust recursive estimation, and the developed filter algorithm is tested on the IEEE benchmark power system to demonstrate its effectiveness.
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Background: Contact with primary care and psychiatric services prior to suicide may be considerable, presenting
opportunities for intervention. However, there is scant knowledge on the frequency, nature and determinants of
contact.
Method: Retrospective cohort study-an analysis of deaths recorded as suicide by the Northern Ireland Coroner’s
Office linked with data from General Practice patient records over a 2 year period
Results: Eighty-seven per cent of suicides were in contact with General Practice services in the 12 months before
suicide. The frequency of contact with services was considerable, particularly among patients with a common
mental disorder or substance misuse problems. A diagnosis of psychiatric problems was absent in 40 % of suicides.
Excluding suicide attempts, the main predictors of a noted general practitioner concern for patient suicidality are
male gender, frequency of consultations, diagnosis of mental illness and substance misuse.
Conclusions: Despite widespread and frequent contact, a substantial proportion of suicidal people were
undiagnosed and untreated for mental health problems. General Practitioner alertness to suicidality may be too
narrowly focused.
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This paper describes the first use of inter-particle force measurement in reworked aerosols to better understand the mechanics of dust deflation and its consequent ecological ramifications. Dust is likely to carry hydrocarbons and micro-organisms including human pathogens and cultured microbes and thereby is a threat to plants, animals and human. Present-day global aerosol emissions are substantially greater than in 1850; however, the projected influx rates are highly disputable. This uncertainty, in part, has roots in the lack of understanding of deflation mechanisms. A growing body of literature shows that whether carbon emission continues to increase, plant transpiration drops and soil water retention enhances, allowing more greenery to grow and less dust to flux. On the other hand, a small but important body of geochemistry literature shows that increasing emission and global temperature leads to extreme climates, decalcification of surface soils containing soluble carbonate polymorphs and hence a greater chance of deflation. The consistency of loosely packed reworked silt provides background data against which the resistance of dust’s bonding components (carbonates and water) can be compared. The use of macro-scale phenomenological approaches to measure dust consistency is trivial. Instead, consistency can be measured in terms of inter-particle stress state. This paper describes a semi-empirical parametrisation of the inter-particle cohesion forces in terms of the balance of contact-level forces at the instant of particle motion. We put forward the hypothesis that the loss of Ca2+-based pedogenic salts is responsible for much of the dust influx and surficial drying pays a less significant role.
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The Portuguese National Statistical Institute intends to produce estimations for the mean price of the habitation transation.
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A real-time parameter estimator for the climate discrete-time dynamic models of a greenhouse located at the North of Portugal are presented. The experiments showed that the second order models identified for the air temperature and humidity achieve a close agreement between simulated and experimantal data.
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For a greenhouse located at UTAD-University, the methods used to estimate in real-time the parameters of the inside air temperature model will be described. The structure and the parameters of the climate discrete-time dynamic model were previously identified using data acquired during two different periods of the year.