Evaluating the alternatives

In this article, I study the impacts of a specific incentives-based approach to safety regulation, namely the control of quality through sampling and threatening penalties when quality fails to meet some minimum standard. The welfare-improving impacts of this type of scheme seem high and are cogently illustrated in a recent contribution by Segerson, which stimulated many of the ideas in this paper. For this reason, the reader is referred to Segerson for a background on some of the motivation, and throughout, I make an effort to indicate differences between the two approaches. There are three major differences. First, I dispense with the calculus as much as possible, seeking readily interpreted, closedform solutions to illustrate the main ideas. Second, (strategically optimal, symmetric) Nash equilibria are the mainstay of each of the current models. Third, in the uncertainquality- provision equilibria, each of the Nash suppliers chooses the level of the lower bound for quality as a control and offers a draw from its (private) distribution in a contribution to the (public) pool of quality.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO

As a major mode of intraseasonal variability, which interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale, the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial source of predictability for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite its global significance and comprehensive investigation, improvements in the representation of the MJO in an NWP context remain elusive. However, recent modifications to the model physics in the ECMWF model led to advances in the representation of atmospheric variability and the unprecedented propagation of the MJO signal through the entire integration period. In light of these recent advances, a set of hindcast experiments have been designed to assess the sensitivity of MJO simulation to the formulation of convection. Through the application of established MJO diagnostics, it is shown that the improvements in the representation of the MJO can be directly attributed to the modified convective parametrization. Furthermore, the improvements are attributed to the move from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for organized deep entrainment. It is concluded that, in order to understand the physical mechanisms through which a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for entrainment led to an improved simulation of the MJO, a more process-based approach should be taken. T he application of process-based diagnostics t o t he hindcast experiments presented here will be the focus of Part II of this study.

A comparison of automated keyphrase extraction techniques and of automatic evaluation vs. human evaluation

Keyphrases are added to documents to help identify the areas of interest they contain. However, in a significant proportion of papers author selected keyphrases are not appropriate for the document they accompany: for instance, they can be classificatory rather than explanatory, or they are not updated when the focus of the paper changes. As such, automated methods for improving the use of keyphrases are needed, and various methods have been published. However, each method was evaluated using a different corpus, typically one relevant to the field of study of the method’s authors. This not only makes it difficult to incorporate the useful elements of algorithms in future work, but also makes comparing the results of each method inefficient and ineffective. This paper describes the work undertaken to compare five methods across a common baseline of corpora. The methods chosen were Term Frequency, Inverse Document Frequency, the C-Value, the NC-Value, and a Synonym based approach. These methods were analysed to evaluate performance and quality of results, and to provide a future benchmark. It is shown that Term Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency were the best algorithms, with the Synonym approach following them. Following these findings, a study was undertaken into the value of using human evaluators to judge the outputs. The Synonym method was compared to the original author keyphrases of the Reuters’ News Corpus. The findings show that authors of Reuters’ news articles provide good keyphrases but that more often than not they do not provide any keyphrases.

Classification and fault detection methods for fuel cell monitoring and quality control

In this paper, various types of fault detection methods for fuel cells are compared. For example, those that use a model based approach or a data driven approach or a combination of the two. The potential advantages and drawbacks of each method are discussed and comparisons between methods are made. In particular, classification algorithms are investigated, which separate a data set into classes or clusters based on some prior knowledge or measure of similarity. In particular, the application of classification methods to vectors of reconstructed currents by magnetic tomography or to vectors of magnetic field measurements directly is explored. Bases are simulated using the finite integration technique (FIT) and regularization techniques are employed to overcome ill-posedness. Fisher's linear discriminant is used to illustrate these concepts. Numerical experiments show that the ill-posedness of the magnetic tomography problem is a part of the classification problem on magnetic field measurements as well. This is independent of the particular working mode of the cell but influenced by the type of faulty behavior that is studied. The numerical results demonstrate the ill-posedness by the exponential decay behavior of the singular values for three examples of fault classes.

Limitations of small x resummation methods from F2data

We discuss several methods of calculating the DIS structure functions F2(x,Q2) based on BFKL-type small x resummations. Taking into account new HERA data ranging down to small xand low Q2, the pure leading order BFKL-based approach is excluded. Other methods based on high energy factorization are closer to conventional renormalization group equations. Despite several difficulties and ambiguities in combining the renormalization group equations with small x resummed terms, we find that a fit to the current data is hardly feasible, since the data in the low Q2 region are not as steep as the BFKL formalism predicts. Thus we conclude that deviations from the (successful) renormalization group approach towards summing up logarithms in 1/x are disfavoured by experiment.

Issues and benefits of using 3D Interfaces: visual and verbal tasks

Spatial memory is important for locating objects in hierarchical data structures, such as desktop folders. There are, however, some contradictions in literature concerning the effectiveness of 3D user interfaces when compared to their 2D counterparts. This paper uses a task-based approach in order to investigate the effectiveness of adding a third dimension to specific user tasks, i.e. the impact of depth on navigation in a 3D file manager. Results highlight issues and benefits of using 3D interfaces for visual and verbal tasks, and introduces the possible existence of a correlation between aptitude scores achieved on the Guilford- Zimmerman Orientation Survey and Electroencephalography- measured brainwave activity as participants search for targets of variable perceptual salience in 2D and 3D environments.

Linking urban water balance and energy balance models to analyse urban design options

Using a water balance modelling framework, this paper analyses the effects of urban design on the water balance, with a focus on evapotranspiration and storm water. First, two quite different urban water balance models are compared: Aquacycle which has been calibrated for a suburban catchment in Canberra, Australia, and the single-source urban evapotranspiration-interception scheme (SUES), an energy-based approach with a biophysically advanced representation of interception and evapotranspiration. A fair agreement between the two modelled estimates of evapotranspiration was significantly improved by allowing the vegetation cover (leaf area index, LAI) to vary seasonally, demonstrating the potential of SUES to quantify the links between water sensitive urban design and microclimates and the advantage of comparing the two modelling approaches. The comparison also revealed where improvements to SUES are needed, chiefly through improved estimates of vegetation cover dynamics as input to SUES, and more rigorous parameterization of the surface resistance equations using local-scale suburban flux measurements. Second, Aquacycle is used to identify the impact of an array of water sensitive urban design features on the water balance terms. This analysis confirms the potential to passively control urban microclimate by suburban design features that maximize evapotranspiration, such as vegetated roofs. The subsequent effects on daily maximum air temperatures are estimated using an atmospheric boundary layer budget. Potential energy savings of about 2% in summer cooling are estimated from this analysis. This is a clear ‘return on investment’ of using water to maintain urban greenspace, whether as parks distributed throughout an urban area or individual gardens or vegetated roofs.

Ubiquitous grid resource monitoring

In any wide-area distributed system there is a need to communicate and interact with a range of networked devices and services ranging from computer-based ones (CPU, memory and disk), to network components (hubs, routers, gateways) and specialised data sources (embedded devices, sensors, data-feeds). In order for the ensemble of underlying technologies to provide an environment suitable for virtual organisations to flourish, the resources that comprise the fabric of the Grid must be monitored in a seamless manner that abstracts away from the underlying complexity. Furthermore, as various competing Grid middleware offerings are released and evolve, an independent overarching monitoring service should act as a corner stone that ties these systems together. GridRM is a standards-based approach that is independent of any given middleware and that can utilise legacy and emerging resource-monitoring technologies. The main objective of the project is to produce a standardised and extensible architecture that provides seamless mechanisms to interact with native monitoring agents across heterogeneous resources.

Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation

We consider evaluating the UK Monetary Policy Committee's inflation density forecasts using probability integral transform goodness-of-fit tests. These tests evaluate the whole forecast density. We also consider whether the probabilities assigned to inflation being in certain ranges are well calibrated, where the ranges are chosen to be those of particular relevance to the MPC, given its remit of maintaining inflation rates in a band around per annum. Finally, we discuss the decision-based approach to forecast evaluation in relation to the MPC forecasts

Representing 3D shape and location

The 3D shape of an object and its 3D location have traditionally thought of as very separate entities, although both can be described within a single 3D coordinate frame. Here, 3D shape and location are considered as two aspects of a view-based approach to representing depth, avoiding the use of 3D coordinate frames.

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Relational pluralism: organizational foresight in practice

This paper examines organizational foresight from a relational perspective. In doing this, we present relational incumbency as a transient conceptual framework to explore how the organizing social relationships and interactions of lower participants may influence organizational foresightfulness. The research employed an exploratory case-based approach with three software organisations and their four new product innovation projects serving as the empirical research sites. Drawing on the case evidence, we provide an account on how normative organizing structures, rights and authority relationships constitutively influence the creative emergence of organizational foresight in practice. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the managerial implications and some directions for future research.

Supply management capabilities, routine bundles and their impact on firm performance

Despite the generally positive contribution of supply management capabilities to firm performance their respective routines require more depth of assessment. Using the resource-based view we examine four routines bundles comprising ostensive and performative aspects of supply management capability – supply management integration, coordinated sourcing, collaboration management and performance assessment. Using structural equation modelling we measure supply management capability empirically as a second-order latent variable and estimate its effect on a series of financial and operational performance measures. The routines-based approach allows us to demonstrate a different, more fine-grained approach for assessing consistent bundles of homogeneous patterns of activity across firms. The results suggest supply management capability is formed of internally consistent routine bundles, which are significantly related to financial performance, mediated by operational performance. Our results confirm an indirect effect of firm performance for ‘core’ routines forming the architecture of a supply management capability. Supply management capability primarily improves the operational performance of the business, which is subsequently translated into improved financial performance. The study is significant for practice as it offers a different view about the face-valid rationale of supply management directly influencing firm financial performance. We confound this assumption, prompting caution when placing too much importance on directly assessing supply management capability using financial performance of the business.

Seafood safety and quality: an analysis of the supply chain in the Sultanate of Oman

The globalization of trade in fish has created many challenges for the developing world specifically with regard to food safety and quality. International organisations have established a good basis for standards in international trade. Whilst these requirements are frequently embraced by the major importers (such as Japan, the EU and the USA), they often impose additional safety requirements and regularly identify batches which fail to meet their strict standards. Creating an effective national seafood control system which meets both the internal national needs as well the requirements for the export market can be challenging. Many countries adopt a dual system where seafood products for the major export markets are subject to tight control whilst the majority of the products (whether for the local market or for more regional trade) are less tightly controlled. With regional liberalization also occurring, deciding on appropriate controls is complex. In the Sultanate of Oman, fisheries production is one of the countries' chief sources of economic revenue after oil production and is a major source of the national food supply. In this paper the structure of the fish supply chain has been analysed and highlighted the different routes operating for the different markets. Although much of the fish are consumed within Oman, there is a major export trade to the local regional markets. Much smaller quantities meet the more stringent standards imposed by the major importing countries and exports to these are limited. The paper has considered the development of the Omani fish control system including the key legislative documents and the administrative structures that have been developed. Establishing modern controls which satisfy the demands of the major importers is possible but places additional costs on businesses. Enhanced controls such as HACCP and other management standards are required but can be difficult to justify when alternative markets do not specify these. These enhanced controls do however provide additional consumer protection and can bring benefits to local consumers. The Omani government is attempting to upgrade the system of controls and has made tremendous progress toward the implementation of HACCP and introducing enhanced management systems into its industrial sector. The existence of strengthened legislative and government support, including subsidies, has encouraged some businesses to implement HACCP. The current control systems have been reviewed and a SWOT analysis approach used to identify key factors for their future development. The study shows that seafood products in the supply chain are often exposed to lengthy handling and distribution process before reaching the consumers, a typical issue faced by many developing countries. As seafood products are often perishable, they safety is compromised if not adequately controlled. The enforcement of current food safety laws in the Sultanate of Oman is shared across various government agencies. Consequently, there is a need to harmonize all regulatory requirements, enhancing the domestic food protection and to continue to work towards a fully risk-based approach in order to compete successfully in the global market.

Gendered struggles over land: shifting inheritance practices among the Serer in rural Senegal

Although women's land rights are often affirmed unequivocally in constitutions and international human rights conventions in many African countries, customary practices usually prevail on the ground and often deny women's land inheritance. Yet land inheritance often goes unnoticed in wider policy and development initiatives to promote women's equal access to land. This paper draws on feminist ethnographic research among the Serer ethnic group in two contrasting rural communities in Senegal. Through analysis of land governance, power relations and 'technologies of the self', this article shows how land inheritance rights are contingent on the specific effects of intersectionality in particular places. The contradictions of legal pluralism, greater adherence to Islam and decentralisation led to greater application of patrilineal inheritance practices. Gender, religion and ethnicity intersected with individuals' marital position, status, generation and socio-ecological change to constrain land inheritance rights for women, particularly daughters, and widows who had been in polygamous unions and who remarried. Although some women were aware that they were legally entitled to inherit a share of the land, they tended not to 'demand their rights'. In participatory workshops, micro-scale shifts in women's and men's positionings reveal a recognition of the gender discriminatory nature of customary and Islamic law and a desire to 'change with the times'. While the effects of 'reverse' discourses are ambiguous and potentially reinforce prevailing patriarchal power regimes, 'counter' discourses, which emerged in participatory spaces, may challenge customary practices and move closer to a rights-based approach to gender equality and women's land inheritance.