The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs

The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probalities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidles and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper “Updating Ambiguos Beliefs” they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa preferences under uncertainty, that the Dempster-Schafer rule is in general not ex-ante optimal. This contrasts with Brown’s result that Bayes’ rule is ex-ante optimal for standard Savage preferences with additive probabilities.

Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

An online platform for real-time sensor data collection, visualization, and sharing

Sharing sensor data between multiple devices and users can be^challenging for naive users, and requires knowledge of programming and use of different communication channels and/or development tools, leading to non uniform solutions. This thesis proposes a system that allows users to access sensors, share sensor data and manage sensors. With this system we intent to manage devices, share sensor data, compare sensor data, and set policies to act based on rules. This thesis presents the design and implementation of the system, as well as three case studies of its use.

Confiabilidade interobservador da escala do equilíbrio de Berg entre fisioterapeutas com extensa e escassa prática clínica

This study aimed at assessing the interobserver reliability of the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS). The assessment was made by physiotherapists with extensive or little clinical experience in non-institutionalized elderly individuals. Participants comprised 12 elderly subjects (10 women and 2 men) with mean ages of 75.8 ± 8.4 years (range = 63-87) and 18 physiotherapists with varying clinical experience. Inter-examiner reliability obtained for each scale item yielded weighted kappa value > 0.75 in 11 of the 14 items (varying from 0.37 to 1.0). The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for the total sum of BBS scores between the two groups of physiotherapists was 0.996 (95% confidence interval, 0.987 0.999) with a Cronbach alpha coefficient of 0.996. We found no difference between the rater groups when we compared the sum score means obtained with the student s T-test (p = 0.86). Although some items had low reliability values, in general our results suggest that the Brazilian Version of the BBS showed good levels of interrater reliability and agreement when used by physiotherapists with different clinical practice levels and without previous training on non-institutionalized elderly patients. We concluded that the BBS can be useful as an important evaluation instrument on a protocol for Rehabilitation clinics. It may be used by various health professionals, as: Physicians, Physical therapists, Physical educators, Occupational therapists, Nurses and Phonoaudiologists, so confirming the interdisciplinary character of this study

Infestation rates of the pedunculated barnacle Octolasmis lowei (Cirripedia: Poecilasmatidae) on the spider crab Libinia spinosa (Decapoda: Majoidea)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Toxicity of the therapeutic potassium permanganate to tilapia Oreochromis niloticus and to non-target organisms Ceriodaphnia dubia (microcrustacean cladocera) and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (green microalgae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intraoperative topical administration of mitomycin C, in different concentrations, on the cicatrization of mioplasties of the dorsal rectus of rabbits

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista

The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

Caracterização e análise das propriedades da fibra de Macambira (Bromelia Laciniosa)

Concern for the environment and the exploitation of natural resources has motivated the development of research in lignocellulosic materials, mainly from plant fibers. The major attraction of these materials include the fact that the fibers are biodegradable, they are a renewable natural resource, low cost and they usually produce less wear on equipment manufacturing when compared with synthetic fibers. Its applications are focused on the areas of technology, including automotive, aerospace, marine, civil, among others, due to the advantageous use in economic and ecological terms. Therefore, this study aims to characterize and analyze the properties of plant fiber macambira (bromelia laciniosa), which were obtained in the municipality of Ielmo Marino, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, located in the region of the Wasteland Potiguar. The characterization of the fiber is given by SEM analysis, tensile test, TG, FTIR, chemical analysis, in addition to obtaining his title and density. The results showed that the extraction of the fibers, only 0.5% of the material is converted into fibers. The results for title and density were satisfactory when compared with other fibers of the same nature. Its structure is composed of microfibrils and its surface is roughened. The cross section has a non-uniform geometry, therefore, it is understood that its diameter is variable along the entire fiber. Values for tensile strength were lower than those of sisal fibers and curauá. The degradation temperature remained equivalent to the degradation temperatures of other vegetable fibers. In FTIR analysis showed that the heat treatment may be an alternative to making the fiber hydrophobic, since, at high temperature can remove the hemicellulose layer, responsible for moisture absorption. Its chemical constitution is endowed with elements of polar nature, so their moisture is around 8.5% which is equivalent to the percentage of moisture content of hydrophilic fibers. It can be concluded that the fiber macambira stands as an alternative materials from renewable sources and depending on the actual application and purpose, it may achieve satisfactory results

The surface electromyography analysis of the non-plegic upper limb of hemiplegic subjects

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Propriedades magnéticas de nanopartículas de ferro em substratos antiferromagnéticos

The effect of finite size on the magnetic properties of ferromagnetic particles systems is a recurrent subject. One of the aspects wide investigated is the superparamagnetic limit where the temperature destroys the magnetic order of ferromagnetic small particles. Above the block temperature the thermal value of the magnetic moment of the particle vanishes, due to thermal fluctuations. The value of the blocking temperature diminishes when the size of the particle is reduced, reflecting the reduction of the anisotropy energy barrier between the uniform states along the uniaxial axis. The increasing demand for high density magnetic media has recently attracted great research interest in periodic arrangements of nanometric ferromagnetics particles, approach in the superparamagnetic limit. An interesting conjecture is the possibility of stabilization of the magnetic order of small ferromagnetic particles (F) by interface coupling with antiferromagnetic (AF) substrate. These F/AF systems may also help to elucidate some details of the effect of exchange bias, because the effect of interface roughness and the paper of domain walls, either in the substrate or the particle, are significantly reduced. We investigate the magnetic phases of small ferromagnetic particles on a antiferromagnetic substrate. We use a self-consistent local field method, incorporating the interface field and the dipole interaction between the spins of the ferromagnetic particle. Our results indicate that increasing the area of the interface favors the formation of the uniform state. Howere above a critical height value appears a state non-uniform is formed where the spins of in the particle s free surface are rotated with respect to the interface spins direction. We discuss the impact of the competition between the dipolar and interface field on the magnetic charge, that controls the field of flux leakage of the particle, and on the format of the hysteresis curves. Our results indicate that the liquid magnetic charge is not a monotonically increasing function of the height of the particle. The exchange bias may display anomalous features, induced for the dipolar field of the spins near the F/AF interface

Treatment of PET and PU polymers by atmospheric pressure plasma generated in dielectric barrier discharge in air

Plasma treatments are frequently employed to modify surface properties of materials such as adhesivity, hydrophobicity, oleophobicity etc. Present work deals with surface modification of common commercial polymers such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyurethane (PU) by an air dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) at atmospheric pressure. The DBD treatment was performed in a plain reactor in wire-duct geometry (non-uniform field reactor), which was driven by a 60 Hz power supply. Material characterization was carried out by water contact angle measurements, atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The plasma-induced modifications are associated with incorporation of polar oxygen and nitrogen containing groups on the polymer surface. The AFM analysis reveals that the plasma treatment roughens the material surface. Due to these structural and morphological changes the surface of DBD-treated polymers becomes more hydrophilic resulting in enhanced adhesion properties. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparação da cifose torácica e capacidade funcional de mulheres idosas com e sem osteoporose

A diminuição da densidade mineral óssea das vértebras, própria do processo de envelhecimento e que pode ser agravada pela osteoporose, determina uma diminuição da região anterior dos corpos vertebrais, resultando em compressão e colapso dessas vértebras, com maior estreitamento dos discos e espaços intervertebrais. Essas novas condições interferem no funcionamento normal de órgãos e sistemas do organismo. O objetivo foi avaliar o grau de cifose torácica e a capacidade funcional de mulheres idosas com e sem osteoporose. Foram avaliadas 30 idosas ativas fisicamente, sendo 20 sem osteoporose ( GSO: 65,1± 4,67 anos) e 10 idosas com osteoporose (GCO: 68,6± 6,46anos). Foram avaliados a medida da cifose torácica, teste de caminhada de seis minutos (TC6'), Timed Up and go (TUG) e força dos músculos respiratórios (PImáx e PEmáx). Os dados obtidos foram analisados utilizando o teste t de Student. O nível de significância utilizado foi de 5% (α£ 0,05). Houve diferença significativa entre os grupos sem (GSO) e com osteoporose (GCO) somente no TC6'(GSO: 426,63±46,36 m; GCO: 392,64±36,68 m , α =0,02). As outras variáveis analisadas não apresentaram diferença significativa (Cifose torácica: α = 0,17; TUG: α =0,49; PImax: α =0,45; PEmax: α =0,19). A osteoporose não influenciou o grau de cifose torácica, a força dos músculos respiratórios e mobilidade das idosas. Entretanto, o desempenho no TC6' foi influenciado negativamente pela osteoporose.

Treatment with Azadirachta indica in diabetic pregnant rats: Negative effects on maternal outcome

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Urinary lithiasis and idiopathic hypercalciuria: the importance of dietary intake evaluation

PUSPOSE: To evaluate food intake of patients with urinary lithiasis and idiopathic hypercalciuria (IH). MATERIALS and METHODS: Between August 2007 and June 2008, 105 patients with lithiasis were distributed into 2 groups: Group 1 (n = 55) - patients with IH (urinary calcium excretion > 250 mg in women and 300 mg in men with normal serum calcium); Group 2 (n = 50) - normocalciuria (NC) patients . Inclusion criteria were: age over 18, normal renal function (creatinine clearance = 60 mL/min), absent proteinuria and negative urinary culture. Pregnant women, patients with some intestinal pathology, chronic diarrhea or using corticoids were excluded. The protocol of metabolic investigation was based on non-consecutive collection of two 24-hour samples for dosages of: calcium, sodium, uric acid, citrate, oxalate, magnesium and urinary volume. Food intake was evaluated through the quantitative method of Dietary Register of three days. RESULTS: Urinary excretion of calcium (433.33 ± 141.92 vs. 188.93 ± 53.09), sodium (280.08 ± 100.94 vs. 200.44.93 ± 65.81), uric acid (880.63 ± 281.50 vs. 646.74 ± 182.76) and magnesium (88.78 ± 37.53 vs. 64.34 ± 31.84) was significantly higher in the IH group in comparison to the NC group (p < 0.05). As regards the nutritional composition of food intake of IH and NC groups, there was no statistical significant difference in any nutrient evaluated. CONCLUSION: In our study, no difference was observed in the food intake of patients with urinary lithiasis and IH or NC.