Preprocessing data for short-term load forecasting with a general regression neural network and a moving average filter

This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

Stochastic exponential stability of singular linear systems with Markov jump parameters

This paper deals with exponential stability of discrete-time singular systems with Markov jump parameters. We propose a set of coupled generalized Lyapunov equations (CGLE) that provides sufficient conditions to check this property for this class of systems. A method for solving the obtained CGLE is also presented, based on iterations of standard singular Lyapunov equations. We present also a numerical example to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach we are proposing.

Consistency of the population projections prepared by CELADE with those of the national governments

El CELADE elabora proyecciones nacionales de poblacion para los 20 paises de la region, en la mayoria de los casos en colaboracion con las oficinas gubernamentales, lo que le otorga a aquellas un caracter oficial. El Centro tambien asesora a los paises en la elaboracion de proyecciones especificas y presta asistencia tecnica; en forma reciente ha disenado un paquete computacional para la preparacion y analisis preliminares de las proyecciones de poblacion. Los problemas mas frecuentes que surgen del trabajo conjunto con los paises dicen relacion con la rotacion del personal administrativo y profesional, la falta de personal calificado, la formulacion de metas no consistentes con la realidad demografica del pais.

Optimal reactive power dispatch using stochastic chance-constrained programming

Deterministic Optimal Reactive Power Dispatch problem has been extensively studied, such that the demand power and the availability of shunt reactive power compensators are known and fixed. Give this background, a two-stage stochastic optimization model is first formulated under the presumption that the load demand can be modeled as specified random parameters. A second stochastic chance-constrained model is presented considering uncertainty on the demand and the equivalent availability of shunt reactive power compensators. Simulations on six-bus and 30-bus test systems are used to illustrate the validity and essential features of the proposed models. This simulations shows that the proposed models can prevent to the power system operator about of the deficit of reactive power in the power system and suggest that shunt reactive sourses must be dispatched against the unavailability of any reactive source. © 2012 IEEE.

Random regression models using Legendre polynomials or linear splines for test-day milk yield of dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) cattle

Studies investigating the use of random regression models for genetic evaluation of milk production in Zebu cattle are scarce. In this study, 59,744 test-day milk yield records from 7,810 first lactations of purebred dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) and crossbred (dairy Gyr × Holstein) cows were used to compare random regression models in which additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using orthogonal Legendre polynomials or linear spline functions. Residual variances were modeled considering 1, 5, or 10 classes of days in milk. Five classes fitted the changes in residual variances over the lactation adequately and were used for model comparison. The model that fitted linear spline functions with 6 knots provided the lowest sum of residual variances across lactation. On the other hand, according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), a model using third-order and fourth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, provided the best fit. However, the high rank correlation (0.998) between this model and that applying third-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, indicates that, in practice, the same bulls would be selected by both models. The last model, which is less parameterized, is a parsimonious option for fitting dairy Gyr breed test-day milk yield records. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.

Comparison of random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production in Guzerat (Bos indicus) cows

Random regression models have been widely used to estimate genetic parameters that influence milk production in Bos taurus breeds, and more recently in B. indicus breeds. With the aim of finding appropriate random regression model to analyze milk yield, different parametric functions were compared, applied to 20,524 test-day milk yield records of 2816 first-lactation Guzerat (B. indicus) cows in Brazilian herds. The records were analyzed by random regression models whose random effects were additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual, and whose fixed effects were contemporary group, the covariable cow age at calving (linear and quadratic effects), and the herd lactation curve. The additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by the Wilmink function, a modified Wilmink function (with the second term divided by 100), a function that combined third-order Legendre polynomials with the last term of the Wilmink function, and the Ali and Schaeffer function. The residual variances were modeled by means of 1, 4, 6, or 10 heterogeneous classes, with the exception of the last term of the Wilmink function, for which there were 1, from 0.20 to 0.33. Genetic correlations between adjacent records were high values (0.83-0.99), but they declined when the interval between the test-day records increased, and were negative between the first and last records. The model employing the Ali and Schaeffer function with six residual variance classes was the most suitable for fitting the data. © FUNPEC-RP.

Cooperative RNA Polymerase Molecules Behavior on a Stochastic Sequence-Dependent Model for Transcription Elongation

The transcription process is crucial to life and the enzyme RNA polymerase (RNAP) is the major component of the transcription machinery. The development of single-molecule techniques, such as magnetic and optical tweezers, atomic-force microscopy and single-molecule fluorescence, increased our understanding of the transcription process and complements traditional biochemical studies. Based on these studies, theoretical models have been proposed to explain and predict the kinetics of the RNAP during the polymerization, highlighting the results achieved by models based on the thermodynamic stability of the transcription elongation complex. However, experiments showed that if more than one RNAP initiates from the same promoter, the transcription behavior slightly changes and new phenomenona are observed. We proposed and implemented a theoretical model that considers collisions between RNAPs and predicts their cooperative behavior during multi-round transcription generalizing the Bai et al. stochastic sequence-dependent model. In our approach, collisions between elongating enzymes modify their transcription rate values. We performed the simulations in Mathematica® and compared the results of the single and the multiple-molecule transcription with experimental results and other theoretical models. Our multi-round approach can recover several expected behaviors, showing that the transcription process for the studied sequences can be accelerated up to 48% when collisions are allowed: the dwell times on pause sites are reduced as well as the distance that the RNAPs backtracked from backtracking sites. © 2013 Costa et al.

Genetic evaluation using multi-trait and random regression models in Simmental beef cattle

The Brazilian Association of Simmental and Simbrasil Cattle Farmers provided 29,510 records from 10,659 Simmental beef cattle; these were used to estimate (co)variance components and genetic parameters for weights in the growth trajectory, based on multi-trait (MTM) and random regression models (RRM). The (co)variance components and genetic parameters were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood. In the MTM analysis, the likelihood ratio test was used to determine the significance of random effects included in the model and to define the most appropriate model. All random effects were significant and included in the final model. In the RRM analysis, different adjustments of polynomial orders were compared for 5 different criteria to choose the best fit model. An RRM of third order for the direct additive genetic, direct permanent environmental, maternal additive genetic, and maternal permanent environment effects was sufficient to model variance structures in the growth trajectory of the animals. The (co)variance components were generally similar in MTM and RRM. Direct heritabilities of MTM were slightly lower than RRM and varied from 0.04 to 0.42 and 0.16 to 0.45, respectively. Additive direct correlations were mostly positive and of high magnitude, being highest at closest ages. Considering the results and that pre-adjustment of the weights to standard ages is not required, RRM is recommended for genetic evaluation of Simmental beef cattle in Brazil. ©FUNPEC-RP.

Multiple-trait random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for milk, fat, and protein yield in buffaloes

In this study, genetic parameters for test-day milk, fat, and protein yield were estimated for the first lactation. The data analyzed consisted of 1,433 first lactations of Murrah buffaloes, daughters of 113 sires from 12 herds in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, with calvings from 1985 to 2007. Ten-month classes of lactation days were considered for the test-day yields. The (co)variance components for the 3 traits were estimated using the regression analyses by Bayesian inference applying an animal model by Gibbs sampling. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-month of the test day. In the model, the random effects were additive genetic, permanent environment, and residual. The fixed effects were contemporary group and number of milkings (1 or 2), the linear and quadratic effects of the covariable age of the buffalo at calving, as well as the mean lactation curve of the population, which was modeled by orthogonal Legendre polynomials of fourth order. The random effects for the traits studied were modeled by Legendre polynomials of third and fourth order for additive genetic and permanent environment, respectively, the residual variances were modeled considering 4 residual classes. The heritability estimates for the traits were moderate (from 0.21-0.38), with higher estimates in the intermediate lactation phase. The genetic correlation estimates within and among the traits varied from 0.05 to 0.99. The results indicate that the selection for any trait test day will result in an indirect genetic gain for milk, fat, and protein yield in all periods of the lactation curve. The accuracy associated with estimated breeding values obtained using multi-trait random regression was slightly higher (around 8%) compared with single-trait random regression. This difference may be because to the greater amount of information available per animal. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.

Ergodic crossover in partially self-avoiding stochastic walks

Consider a one-dimensional environment with N randomly distributed sites. An agent explores this random medium moving deterministically with a spatial memory μ. A crossover from local to global exploration occurs in one dimension at a well-defined memory value μ1=log2N. In its stochastic version, the dynamics is ruled by the memory and by temperature T, which affects the hopping displacement. This dynamics also shows a crossover in one dimension, obtained computationally, between exploration schemes, characterized yet by the trajectory size (Np) (aging effect). In this paper we provide an analytical approach considering the modified stochastic version where the parameter T plays the role of a maximum hopping distance. This modification allows us to obtain a general analytical expression for the crossover, as a function of the parameters μ, T, and Np. Differently from what has been proposed by previous studies, we find that the crossover occurs in any dimension d. These results have been validated by numerical experiments and may be of great value for fixing optimal parameters in search algorithms. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Consumo de álcool entre estudantes do ensino médio do município de Passos-MG

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

SPECTRUM OF STOCHASTIC ADDING MACHINES AND FIBERED JULIA SETS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic parameters for body weight in buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) in Colombia using random regression models

The objective of this research was to estimate (co) variance functions and genetic parameters for body weight in Colombian buffalo populations using random regression models with Legendre polynomials. Data consisted of 34,738 weight records from birth to 900 days of age from 7815 buffaloes. Fixed effects in the model were contemporary group and parity order of the mother. Random effects were direct and maternal additive genetic, as well as animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. A cubic orthogonal Legendre polynomial was used to model the mean curve of the population. Eleven models with first to sixth order polynomials were used to describe additive genetic direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The residual was modeled considering five variance classes. The best model included fourth and sixth order polynomials for direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. The direct heritability increased from birth until 120 days of age (0.32 +/- 0.05), decreasing thereafter until one year of age (0.18 +/- 0.04) and increased again, reaching 0.39 +/- 0.09, at the end of the evaluated period. The highest maternal heritability estimates (0.11 +/- 0.05), were obtained for weights around weaning age (weaning age range is between 8 and 9.5 months). Maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental variances increased from birth until about one year of age, decreasing at later ages. Direct genetic correlations ranged from moderate (0.60 +/- 0.060) to high (0.99 +/- 0.001), maternal genetic correlations showed a similar range (0.41 +/- 0.401 and 0.99 +/- 0.003), and all of them decreased as time between weighings increased. Direct genetic correlations suggested that selecting buffalos for heavier weights at any age would increase weights from birth through 900 days of age. However, higher heritabilities for direct genetic weights effects after 600 days of age suggested that selection for these effects would be more effective if done during this age period. A greater response to selection for maternal ability would be expected if selection used maternal genetic predictions for weights near weaning. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.