Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Across the Oceans : Development of Overseas Business Information Transmission, 1815-1875

Earlier studies have shown that the speed of information transmission developed radically during the 19th century. The fast development was mainly due to the change from sailing ships and horse-driven coaches to steamers and railways, as well as the telegraph. Speed of information transmission has normally been measured by calculating the duration between writing and receiving a letter, or between an important event and the time when the news was published elsewhere. As overseas mail was generally carried by ships, the history of communications and maritime history are closely related. This study also brings a postal historical aspect to the academic discussion. Additionally, there is another new aspect included. In business enterprises, information flows generally consisted of multiple transactions. Although fast one-way information was often crucial, e.g. news of a changing market situation, at least equally important was that there was a possibility to react rapidly. To examine the development of business information transmission, the duration of mail transport has been measured by a systematic and commensurable method, using consecutive information circles per year as the principal tool for measurement. The study covers a period of six decades, several of the world's most important trade routes and different mail-carrying systems operated by merchant ships, sailing packets and several nations' steamship services. The main sources have been the sailing data of mail-carrying ships and correspondence of several merchant houses in England. As the world's main trade routes had their specific historical backgrounds with different businesses, interests and needs, the systems for information transmission did not develop similarly or simultaneously. It was a process lasting several decades, initiated by the idea of organizing sailings in a regular line system. The evolution proceeded generally as follows: originally there was a more or less irregular system, then a regular system and finally a more frequent regular system of mail services. The trend was from sail to steam, but both these means of communication improved following the same scheme. Faster sailings alone did not radically improve the number of consecutive information circles per year, if the communication was not frequent enough. Neither did improved frequency advance the information circulation if the trip was very long or if the sailings were overlapping instead of complementing each other. The speed of information transmission could be improved by speeding up the voyage itself (technological improvements, minimizing the waiting time at ports of call, etc.) but especially by organizing sailings so that the recipients had the possibility to reply to arriving mails without unnecessary delay. It took two to three decades before the mail-carrying shipping companies were able to organize their sailings in an optimal way. Strategic shortcuts over isthmuses (e.g. Panama, Suez) together with the cooperation between steamships and railways enabled the most effective improvements in global communications before the introduction of the telegraph.

Flow of metal in a wedge-shaped cavity

The wedge shape is a fairly common cross-section found in many non-axisymmetric components used in machines, aircraft, ships and automobiles. If such components are forged between two mutually inclined dies the metal displaced by the dies flows into the converging as well as into the diverging channels created by the inclined dies. The extent of each type of flow (convergent/divergent) depends on the die—material interface friction and the included die angle. Given the initial cross-section, the length as well as the exact geometry of the forged cross-section are therefore uniquely determined by these parameters. In this paper a simple stress analysis is used to predict changes in the geometry of a wedge undergoing compression between inclined platens. The flow in directions normal to the cross-section is assumed to be negligible. Experiments carried out using wedge-shaped lead billets show that, knowing the interface friction and as long as the deformation is not too large, the dimensional changes in the wedge can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. The predicted flow behaviour of metal for a wide range of die angles and interface friction is presented: these characteristics can be used by the die designer to choose the die lubricant (only) if the die angle is specified and to choose both of these parameters if there is no restriction on the exact die angle. The present work shows that the length of a wedge undergoing compression is highly sensitive to die—material interface friction. Thus in a situation where the top and bottom dies are inclined to each other, a wedge made of the material to be forged could be put between the dies and then compressed, whereupon the length of the compressed wedge — given the degree of compression — affords an estimate of the die—material interface friction.

Laminar flow of a suspension in a curved pipe with varying curvature

The laminar flow of a fairly concentrated suspension (in which the volume fraction Z of the solid particles < 0.4) in a spatially varying periodically curved pipe has been examined numerically. Unlike the case of interacting suspension flows, the particles are found to flow in a well-mixed fashion, altering both the axial and circumferential velocities and consequently the fluid flux in the tube, depending on their diffusivity and inertia. The magnitude of shear stress at the wall is enhanced, suggesting that, if applied to vascular system, the vascular wall could be prone to ulceration during pathological situations like polycythemia. The delay in adaptation of the deviation in Poiseuille flow velocity to the curvature changes is also discussed in detail.

Unsteady Incompressible Two-Dimensional and Axisymmetric Turbulent Boundary Layer Flows

The unsteady turbulent incompressible boundary-layer flow over two-dimensional and axisymmetric bodies with pressure gradient has been studied. An eddy-viscosity model has been used to model the Reynolds shear stress. The unsteadiness is due to variations in the free stream velocity with time. The nonlinear partial differential equation with three independent variables governing the flow has been solved using Keller's Box method. The results indicate that the free stram velocity distribution exerts strong influence on the boundary-layer characteristics. The point of zero skin friction is found to move upstream as time increases.

Variable growth rates of the tropical estuarine fish barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) under different freshwater flow conditions

Relationships between freshwater flows and growth rates of the opportunistic predatory finfish barramundi Lates calcarifer in a dry tropical estuary were examined using data from a long-term tag-recapture programme. Lagged effects were not investigated. After accounting for length at release, time at liberty and seasonal variation (e.g. winter, spring, summer and autumn), growth rates were significantly and positively related to fresh water flowing to the estuary. Effects were present at relatively low levels of freshwater flow (i.e. 2.15 m3 s-1, the 5th percentile of the mean flow rate experienced by fish in the study during time at liberty). The analysis, although correlative, provides quantitative evidence to support the hypothesis that freshwater flows are important in driving the productivity of estuaries and can improve growth of species high in the trophic chain.

Business process performance mining with staged process flows

Existing process mining techniques provide summary views of the overall process performance over a period of time, allowing analysts to identify bottlenecks and associated performance issues. However, these tools are not de- signed to help analysts understand how bottlenecks form and dissolve over time nor how the formation and dissolution of bottlenecks – and associated fluctua- tions in demand and capacity – affect the overall process performance. This paper presents an approach to analyze the evolution of process performance via a notion of Staged Process Flow (SPF). An SPF abstracts a business process as a series of queues corresponding to stages. The paper defines a number of stage character- istics and visualizations that collectively allow process performance evolution to be analyzed from multiple perspectives. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining framework. The paper demonstrates the advantages of the SPF approach over state-of-the-art process performance mining tools using two real-life event logs publicly available.

The effect of habitat and environmental history on otolith chemistry of barramundi Lates calcarifer in estuarine populations of a regulated tropical river

We examine the microchemistry of otoliths of cohorts of a fished shed population of the large catadromous fish, barramundi Lates calcarifer from the estuary of a large tropical river. Barramundi from the estuary of the large, heavily regulated Fitzroy River, north eastern Australia were analysed by making transects of 87Sr/86Sr isotope and trace metal/Ca ratios from the core to the outer edge. Firstly, we examined the Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mg/Ca and Mn/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios in otoliths of barramundi tagged in either freshwater or estuarine habitats that were caught by the commercial fishery in the estuary. We used 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios to identify periods of freshwater residency and assess whether trace metal/Ca ratios varied between habitats. Only Sr/Ca consistently varied between known periods of estuarine or freshwater residency. The relationships between trace metal/Ca and river flow, salinity, temperature were examined in fish tagged and recaptured in the estuary. We found weak and inconsistent patterns in relationships between these variables in the majority of fish. These results suggest that both individual movement history within the estuary and the scale of environmental monitoring were reducing our ability to detect any patterns. Finally, we examined fish in the estuary from two dominant age cohorts (4 and 7 yr old) before and after a large flood in 2003 to ascertain if the flood had enabled fish from freshwater habitats to migrate to the estuary. There was no difference in the proportion of fish in the estuary that had accessed freshwater after the flood. Instead, we found that larger individuals with each age cohort were more likely to have spent a period in freshwater. This highlights the need to maintain freshwater flows in rivers. About half the fish examined had accessed freshwater habitats before capture. Of these, all had spent at least their first two months in marine salinity waters before entering freshwater and some did not enter freshwater until four years of age. This contrasts with the results of several previous studies in other parts of the range that found that access to freshwater swamps by larval barramundi was important for enhanced population productivity and recruitment.

Habitat dynamics in the bed sediments of an intermittent upland stream

The effects of the hydrological regime on temporal changes to physical characteristics of substratum habitat, sediment texture of surface sediments (<10 cm), were investigated in a sub-tropical headwater stream over four years. Surface discharge was measured together with vertical hydraulic gradient and groundwater depth in order to explore features of sediment habitat that extend beyond the streambed surface. Whilst the typical discharge pattern was one of intermittent base flows and infrequent flow events associated with monsoonal rain patterns, the study period also encompassed a drought and a one-in-a-hundred-year flood. Rainfall and discharge did not necessarily reflect the actual conditions in the stream. Although surface waters were persistent long after discharge ceased, the streambed was completely dry on several occasions. Shallow groundwater was present at variable depths throughout the study period, being absent only at the height of the drought. The streambed sediments were mainly gravels, sand and clay. Finer sediment fractions showed a marked change in grain size over time, although bedload movement was limited to a single high discharge event. In response to a low discharge regimen (drought), sediments characteristically showed non-normal distributions and were dominated by finer materials. A high-energy discharge event produced a coarsening of sands and a diminished clay fraction in the streambed. Particulate organic matter from sediments showed trends of build-up and decline with the high and low discharge regimes, respectively. Within the surface sediment intersticies three potential categories of invertebrate habitat were recognised, each with dynamic spatial and temporal boundaries.

The possible influence of curvature and rotation on ocean currents

Recent laboratory investigations have shown that rotation and (streamwise) curvature can have spectacular effects on momentum transport in turbulent shear flows. A simple model that takes account of these effects (based on an analogy with buoyant flows) utilises counterparts of the Richardson number Rg and the Monin-Oboukhov length. Estimates of Rg for meanders in ocean currents like the Gulf Stream show it to be of order 1 or more, while laboratory investigations reveal strong effects even at |Rg|∼0·1. These considerations lead to the conclusion that at a cyclonic bend in the Gulf Stream, a highly unstable flow in the outer half of the jet rides over a highly stable flow in the inner half. It is conjectured that the discrepancies noticed between observation and the various theories of Gulf Stream meanders, and such phenomena as the observed detachment of eddies from the Gulf Stream, may be due to the effects of curvature and rotation on turbulent transport.

Self-similar solution of unsteady compressible three-dimensional stagnation-point boundary layers

The self-similar solution of the unsteady laminar compressible boundary-layer flow with variable properties at a three-dimensional stagnation point with mass transfer has been obtained when the free-stream velocity varies inversely as a linear function of time. The resulting ordinary differential equations have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme. The results are found to be strongly dependent on the parameter characterizing the unsteadiness in the free-stream velocity. The velocity profiles show some features not encountered in steady flows.

Self-Assembly of Bile Steroid Analogues: Molecules, Fibers, and Networks

Structural and rheological features of a series of molecular hydrogels formed by synthetic bile salt analogues have been scrutinized. Among seven gelators, two are neutral compounds, while the others are cationic systems among which one is a tripodal steroid derivative. Despite the fact that the chemical structures are closely related, the variety of physical characteristics is extremely large in the structures of the connected fibers (either plain cylinders or ribbons), in the dynamical modes for stress relaxation of the associated SAFINs, in the scaling laws of the shear elasticity (typical of either cellular solids or fractal floc-like assemblies), in the micron-scale texture and the distribution of ordered domains (spherulites, crystallites) embedded in a random mesh, in the type of nodal zones (either crystalline-like, fiber entanglements, or bundles), in the evolution of the distribution and morphology of fibers and nodes, and in the sensitivity to added salt. SANS appears to be a suitable technique to infer all geometrical parameters defining the fibers, their interaction modes, and the volume fraction of nodes in a SAFIN. The tripodal system is particularly singular in the series and exhibits viscosity overshoots at the startup of shear flows, an “umbrella-like” molecular packing mode involving three molecules per cross section of fiber, and scattering correlation peaks revealing the ordering and overlap of 1d self-assembled polyelectrolyte species.

Recovery of the red-finned blue-eye: An endangered fish from springs of the Great Artesian Basin

The red-finned blue-eye (Scaturiginichthys vermeilipinnis) is endemic to a single complex of springs emanating from the Great Artesian Basin, Australia. The species has been recorded as naturally occurring in eight separate very shallow (generally <20 mm) springs, with a combined wetland area of ~0.3 ha. Since its discovery in 1990, five red-finned blue-eye (RFBE) populations have been lost and subsequent colonisation has occurred in two spring wetlands. Current population size is estimated at <3000 individuals. Artesian bores have reduced aquifer pressure, standing water levels and spring-flows in the district. There is evidence of spatial separation within the spring pools where RFBE and the introduced fish gambusia (Gambusia holbrooki) co-occur, although both species are forced together when seasonal extremes affect spring size and water temperature. Gambusia was present in four of the five springs where RFBE populations have been lost. Four out of the five remaining subpopulations of RFBE are Gambusia free. Circumstantial evidence suggests that gambusia is a major threat to red-finned blue-eyes. The impact of Gambusia is probably exacerbated by domestic stock (cattle and sheep), feral goats and pigs that utilise the springs and can negatively affect water quality and flow patterns. Three attempts to translocate RFBE to apparently suitable springs elsewhere within the complex have failed. Opportunities to mitigate threats are discussed, along with directions for future research to improve management of this extremely threatened fish and habitat.

Losses of nitrogen in surface runoff from a plantation horticulture farm in coastal Queensland, Australia.

Surface losses of nitrogen from horticulture farms in coastal Queensland, Australia, may have the potential to eutrophy sensitive coastal marine habitats nearby. A case-study of the potential extent of such losses was investigated in a coastal macadamia plantation. Nitrogen losses were quantified in 5 consecutive runoff events during the 13-month study. Irrigation did not contribute to surface flows. Runoff was generated by storms at combined intensities and durations that were 20–40 mm/h for >9 min. These intensities and durations were within expected short-term (1 year) and long-term (up to 20 years) frequencies of rainfall in the study area. Surface flow volumes were 5.3 ± 1.1% of the episodic rainfall generated by such storms. Therefore, the largest part of each rainfall event was attributed to infiltration and drainage in this farm soil (Kandosol). The estimated annual loss of total nitrogen in runoff was 0.26 kg N/ha.year, representing a minimal loading of nitrogen in surface runoff when compared to other studies. The weighted average concentrations of total sediment nitrogen (TSN) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) generated in the farm runoff were 2.81 ± 0.77% N and 1.11 ± 0.27 mg N/L, respectively. These concentrations were considerably greater than ambient levels in an adjoining catchment waterway. Concentrations of TSN and TDN in the waterway were 0.11 ± 0.02% N and 0.50 ± 0.09 mg N/L, respectively. The steep concentration gradient of TSN and TDN between the farm runoff and the waterway demonstrated the occurrence of nutrient loading from the farming landscapes to the waterway. The TDN levels in the stream exceeded the current specified threshold of 0.2–0.3 mg N/L for eutrophication of such a waterway. Therefore, while the estimate of annual loading of N from runoff losses was comparatively low, it was evident that the stream catchment and associated agricultural land uses were already characterised by significant nitrogen loadings that pose eutrophication risks. The reported levels of nitrogen and the proximity of such waterways (8 km) to the coastline may have also have implications for the nearshore (oligotrophic) marine environment during periods of turbulent flow.

Correction factors for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators

This paper presents an approach for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators by introducing a new correction factor for equivalent inter-area power flows. The spread of generators from the center of inertia of each area is summarized by the correction term α on the equivalent power flow between the areas and is applied to the identification and estimation process. A nonlinear time varying Kalman filter is applied to estimate the equivalent angles and velocities of coherent areas by reducing the effect of local modes on the estimated states. The approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show the effect of the correction factor and the performance of the state estimation by estimating the inter-area dynamics of the system.