On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

Psychothérapie et mécanismes de défense = Psychotherapy and defense mechanisms

Dans cet article, les auteurs mettent en dialogue deux facettes des mécanismes de défense en situation psychothérapeutique : la psychopathologie et le changement. Pour commencer, les instruments de mesure les plus utilisés sont présentés, avec un accent sur les échelles d'évaluation par un juge externe. Les conceptions de Vaillant et de Perry sont présentées et discutées. L'article se continue avec une synthèse des travaux empiriques de recherche en psychothérapie se focalisant sur les changements des mécanismes de défense au cours des psychothérapies, principalement d'orientation psychanalytique. Une réflexion autour du lien avec le concept d'alliance thérapeutique, ainsi qu'avec celui du coping complète cette synthèse. Des travaux récents concernant des psychothérapies de courte et de longue durée sont ensuite abordés. Les défenses sont également discutées du point de vue de la psychopathologie, à travers deux exemples d'études empiriques mettant en évidence des spécificités dans des troubles psychiatriques. Les retombées de ces résultats de recherche pour la pratique psychanalytique sont mentionnées tout au long de cet article de synthèse. With the present article, we aim to develop a dialogue between two aspects of defense mechanisms in psychotherapy : psychopathology and change. First, the most frequently used instruments will be presented, with a particular focus on observer-rated scales, and Vaillant's and Perry's models are sketched and discussed. Then, we review empirical research on changes in defense mechanisms over the course of psychotherapy, mainly psychoanalytic. An elaboration on the links with the concept of therapeutic alliance and the concept of coping completes this overview. Recent studies on change in short- and long-term psychotherapy are then discussed. Defense mechanisms are then examined from a psychopathology point of view, using two examples of empirical studies pointing to distinctive characteristics of mental disorders. Clinical implications for psychoanalytic practice are discussed throughout the article.

Adaptive model selection using empirical complexities

Given $n$ independent replicates of a jointly distributed pair $(X,Y)\in {\cal R}^d \times {\cal R}$, we wish to select from a fixed sequence of model classes ${\cal F}_1, {\cal F}_2, \ldots$ a deterministic prediction rule $f: {\cal R}^d \to {\cal R}$ whose risk is small. We investigate the possibility of empirically assessingthe {\em complexity} of each model class, that is, the actual difficulty of the estimation problem within each class. The estimated complexities are in turn used to define an adaptive model selection procedure, which is based on complexity penalized empirical risk.The available data are divided into two parts. The first is used to form an empirical cover of each model class, and the second is used to select a candidate rule from each cover based on empirical risk. The covering radii are determined empirically to optimize a tight upper bound on the estimation error. An estimate is chosen from the list of candidates in order to minimize the sum of class complexity and empirical risk. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the complexity of each model class is assessed empirically, based on the size of its empirical cover.Finite sample performance bounds are established for the estimates, and these bounds are applied to several non-parametric estimation problems. The estimates are shown to achieve a favorable tradeoff between approximation and estimation error, and to perform as well as if the distribution-dependent complexities of the model classes were known beforehand. In addition, it is shown that the estimate can be consistent,and even possess near optimal rates of convergence, when each model class has an infinite VC or pseudo dimension.For regression estimation with squared loss we modify our estimate to achieve a faster rate of convergence.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

The spiritual distress assessment tool: an instrument to assess spiritual distress in hospitalised elderly persons.

BACKGROUND: Although spirituality is usually considered a positive resource for coping with illness, spiritual distress may have a negative influence on health outcomes. Tools are needed to identify spiritual distress in clinical practice and subsequently address identified needs. This study describes the first steps in the development of a clinically acceptable instrument to assess spiritual distress in hospitalized elderly patients. METHODS: A three-step process was used to develop the Spiritual Distress Assessment Tool (SDAT): 1) Conceptualisation by a multidisciplinary group of a model (Spiritual Needs Model) to define the different dimensions characterizing a patient's spirituality and their corresponding needs; 2) Operationalisation of the Spiritual Needs Model within geriatric hospital care leading to a set of questions (SDAT) investigating needs related to each of the defined dimensions; 3) Qualitative assessment of the instrument's acceptability and face validity in hospital chaplains. RESULTS: Four dimensions of spirituality (Meaning, Transcendence, Values, and Psychosocial Identity) and their corresponding needs were defined. A formalised assessment procedure to both identify and subsequently score unmet spiritual needs and spiritual distress was developed. Face validity and acceptability in clinical practice were confirmed by chaplains involved in the focus groups. CONCLUSIONS: The SDAT appears to be a clinically acceptable instrument to assess spiritual distress in elderly hospitalised persons. Studies are ongoing to investigate the psychometric properties of the instrument and to assess its potential to serve as a basis for integrating the spiritual dimension in the patient's plan of care.

Minimum distance estimation of stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA processes

A new parametric minimum distance time-domain estimator for ARFIMA processes is introduced in this paper. The proposed estimator minimizes the sum of squared correlations of residuals obtained after filtering a series through ARFIMA parameters. The estimator iseasy to compute and is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed for fractionallyintegrated (FI) processes with an integration order d strictly greater than -0.75. Therefore, it can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Deterministic components are also allowed in the DGP. Furthermore, as a by-product, the estimation procedure provides an immediate check on the adequacy of the specified model. This is so because the criterion function, when evaluated at the estimated values, coincides with the Box-Pierce goodness of fit statistic. Empirical applications and Monte-Carlo simulations supporting the analytical results and showing the good performance of the estimator in finite samples are also provided.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Quetiapine and norquetiapine in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid of schizophrenic patients treated with quetiapine: correlations to clinical outcome and HVA, 5-HIAA, and MHPG in CSF.

This study investigated concentrations of quetiapine and norquetiapine in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in 22 schizophrenic patients after 4-week treatment with quetiapine (600 mg/d), which was preceded by a 3-week washout period. Blood and CSF samples were obtained on days 1 and 28, and CSF levels of homovanillic acid (HVA), 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), and 3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol (MHPG) concentrations were measured at baseline and after 4 weeks of quetiapine, allowing calculations of differences in HVA (ΔHVA), 5-HIAA (Δ5-HIAA), and MHPG (ΔMHPG) concentrations. Patients were assessed clinically, using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and Clinical Global Impression Scale at baseline and then at weekly intervals. Plasma levels of quetiapine and norquetiapine were 1110 ± 608 and 444 ± 226 ng/mL, and the corresponding CSF levels were 29 ± 18 and 5 ± 2 ng/mL, respectively. After the treatment, the levels of HVA, 5-HIAA, and MHPG were increased by 33%, 35%, and 33%, respectively (P < 0.001). A negative correlation was found between the decrease in PANSS positive subscale scores and CSF ΔHVA (r(rho) = -0.690, P < 0.01), and the decrease in PANSS negative subscale scores both with CSF Δ5-HIAA (r(rho) = -0.619, P = 0.02) and ΔMHPG (r(rho) = -0.484, P = 0.038). Because, unfortunately, schizophrenic patients experience relapses even with the best available treatments, monitoring of CSF drug and metabolite levels might prove to be useful in tailoring individually adjusted treatments.

The ethics of creative accounting: Some Spanish evidence

'Creative accounting' involves accountants in making accounting policy choices or manipulating transactions in such a way as to give the impression in the accounts that they prefer. While regarded as unethical by most observers, a defence of creative accounting can be based on the ability of the users of accounts to identify bias in accounting policy choices and make appropriate adjustments.In this paper we take the example of the Barcelona Football Club where the club management made three key accounting policy choices that presented a favourable position, and a supporters' club presented an alternative report choosing three alternative accounting policies that presented an unfavourable position. We presented each of these financial reports to one of two groups of Spanish bank loan offices, with supporting notes making the impact of the accounting policy choices clear. We found that the more favourable set of accounts was significantly more likely to attract a positive response to a loan request.This result undermines the defence for creative accounting, based on the ability of users to identify manipulation.

Dificuldades na manutenção da abstinência nos toxicodependentes em tratamento

A toxicodependência é considerada hoje como um problema de saúde pública, pois atinge toda a sociedade desde as classes sociais mais elevadas às mais baixas. O consumo das drogas, a questão da dependência e os problemas que dali surgem tornaram-se temas de extrema actualidade na nossa sociedade e no mundo. Tendo em conta a importância da abstinência do consumo no processo terapêutico, este estudo teve como objectivo descrever a experiência da abstinência nos toxicodependentes em tratamento, em particular descrever o padrão de manutenção de abstinência, descrever os factores da rotina do dia a dia e as vivências que dificultam ou que facilitam a manutenção da abstinência, e caracterizar as estratégias de enfrentamento/coping utilizadas para lidar com esses factores. A metodologia utilizada foi qualitativa, e integrou o estudo dos ex-usuários em tratamento da Comunidade Terapêutica Granja São Filipe, seleccionados por conveniência. O estudo foi desenvolvido a partir de entrevistas individuais, com perguntas semi-abertas e orientadas por um roteiro desenvolvido para o efeito. As entrevistas foram transcritas directamente e os dados foram analisados mediante a classificação descritiva dos conteúdos, inventariando os conteúdos evocados pelos sujeitos para cada dimensão em estudo. Em termos do início do uso de substâncias psicoactivas, verificou-se com este estudo que a maioria dos ex-usuários iniciou o consumo na adolescência, com o consumo inicial de álcool e “padjinha”. Os motivos para a instalação do comportamento de uso apontados foram os problemas familiares e influências de amigos. Relativamente as dificuldades encontradas na manutenção da abstinência, foram especialmente referidas a mudança de estilo de vida e dos hábitos aditivos. No que diz respeito as estratégias de enfrentamento, as mais destacadas foram as centradas no problema, nomeadamente a fuga ou evitamento. Manter o tempo ocupado com alguma actividade que substitua a droga e reforce, ainda mais, a decisão pessoal de não voltar ao consumo, o apoio os familiares e amigos foi ressaltado pelos jovens como factor importante para permanecer abstinente, e permitiu-nos concluir que a ocupação do tempo com actividades que proporcionam, alguma satisfação e os mantém em contacto com o programa de tratamento tem uma função fundamental no processo de manutenção da abstinência.

A adaptação psicológica da mãe face a doença crónica do filho

O presente trabalho debruça-se sobre o estudo das estratégias de adaptação psicológica das mães face a doença crónica do filho. Pretende caracterizar a reacção das mães face ao diagnóstico da doença crónica, identificar as maiores dificuldades que essas mães enfrentam em lidar com o filho e conhecer as estratégias de coping usadas pelas mães para lidar com as situações decorrentes da doença do filho. O estudo é do tipo descritivo-exploratório caracterizado por uma abordagem qualitativa. Os sujeitos da amostra são 6 mães de crianças com acompanhamento regular no Serviço de Fisioterapia no Centro de Saúde Reprodutiva da Fazenda, cujo filho (a) é portador da Paralisia Cerebral com a idade compreendida entre 0 e os 5 anos. Optou-se ainda, como critério de inclusão, por um tempo de diagnóstico de pelo menos 6 meses. As mães foram escolhidas por conveniência. Para a colecta dos dados foi utilizada uma entrevista semi-estruturada que cobriu as dimensões: coping de confronto com o diagnóstico, aceitação da situação, as dificuldades e estratégias da superação, o apoio social, as estratégias de superar os atrasos de desenvolvimento e a socialização da criança. As respostas das entrevistas foram registadas e tratadas com base na análise de conteúdo. O estudo revela que o confronto com o diagnóstico é um choque emocional tendo as mães manifestados sintomas depressivos. Apesar desse choque, as mães revelaram aceitar a situação e igualmente algumas estratégias de enfrentamento da situação. As mães deste estudo referiram ter dificuldades concretas e práticas. As estratégias utilizadas pelas mães são com vista a superar tanto as suas dificuldades como também das crianças. No que se refere ao apoio social, este foi descrito como sendo proveniente dos familiares, nomeadamente os avós e outras pessoas significativas da rede social da mãe e da criança como os pais, os amigos, tios e vizinhos. A maioria das mães está interessada no tratamento dos seus filhos e usa estratégias que ajudam nesse tratamento. Os resultados deste estudo revela que na sua maioria as mães estão bem adaptadas, o que pode ser explicado pelo facto delas estarem a ser beneficiadas por um acompanhamento multifacetado intensivo, o que lhes permite enquadrar as angústias, tirar as dúvidas e encontrar o apoio e amparo necessários. O suporte social recebido tanto pela família como pelos amigos e profissionais de saúde pode ter sido fundamental para aliviar o stress psicológico e possibilitar uma maior tomada de consciência da situação. Quanto as estratégias de coping essas revelam mais centradas no problema.

State of Iowa Employee Handbook, Revised October 2003

I hope you will find a great deal of challenge and personal satisfaction in your employment with the State. You have an important role in accomplishing the goals of your department and of state government. The State has a proud tradition built on the excellence of its employees and their work. We challenge you to help maintain and improve upon this tradition. You soon will discover that our pride is contagious! As a state employee, it is very important that you always present the best possible image to the public. Remember to act promptly, be courteous, and treat people, our customers, respectfully. Your actions will make a lasting impression .... be sure it is a positive one. This is your employee handbook. This information is based on Iowa Department of Administrative Services – Human Resources Enterprise (DAS-HRE) rules and policies. Much of the information in this handbook is also covered in the State’s collective bargaining agreements. Where there are differences between a collective bargaining agreement and this handbook, the collective bargaining agreement prevails for employees covered by the agreement. Where there are differences between this handbook and DAS-HRE rules and policies, DAS-HRE rules and policies prevail. Some of the employee benefit plans described in this handbook are subject to legal requirements concerning reporting and disclosure. This handbook contains highlights of those plans. For complete details about benefit plans, consult the benefit handbooks and the official plan documents. In case of any discrepancy, the official plan documents prevail. Of course, changes in laws may affect the benefit programs described in this handbook. The State of Iowa reserves the right to amend the contents of this handbook at any time without prior notice. The provisions of this handbook and other policies do not establish contractual rights or conditions of employment between the State and its employees.

Prediction of functional outcome 18 months after a first psychotic episode: a proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.