Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

The size and prevalence of the cavum septum pellucidum are normal in subjects with panic disorder

Panic disorder is thought to involve dysfunction in the septohippocampal system, and the presence of a cavum septum pellucidum might indicate the aberrant development of this system. We compared the prevalence and size of cavum septum pellucidum in 21 patients with panic disorder and in 21 healthy controls by magnetic resonance imaging. The length of the cavum septum pellucidum was measured by counting the number of consecutive 1-mm coronal slices in which it appeared. A cavum septum pellucidum of >6 mm in length was rated as large. There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients (16 of 21 or 76.2%) and controls (18 of 21 or 85.7%) with a cavum septum pellucidum (P = 0.35, Fisher's exact test, one-tailed), and no members of either group had a large cavum septum pellucidum. The mean cavum septum pellucidum rating in the patient and control groups was 1.81 (SD = 1.50) and 2.09 (SD = 1.51), respectively. There were also no significant differences between groups when we analyzed cavum septum pellucidum ratings as a continuous variable (U = 196.5; P = 0.54). Across all subjects there was a trend towards a higher prevalence of cavum septum pellucidum in males (100%, 10 of 10) than females (75%, 24 of 32; P = 0.09, Fisher's exact test, one-tailed). Thus, we conclude that, while panic disorder may involve septo-hippocampal dysfunction, it is not associated with an increased prevalence or size of the cavum septum pellucidum.

Effects of chronic heart disease on skeletal muscle fiber size

Size changes in muscle fibers of subjects with chronic heart disease (CHD) have been reported, although a consensus has not been achieved. The aims of the present study were to investigate a possible association between CHD and fiber size changes in the brachial biceps compared to subjects without heart disease. Forty-six muscle samples were obtained in autopsies of individuals (13 to 84 years) without neuromuscular disorders, 19 (10 males and 9 females) with, and 27 (14 males and 13 females) without CHD. In all cases muscle sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin and processed for the visualization of myofibrillar ATPase activity. The lesser diameter of type 1 and type 2 fibers was obtained tracing their outlines (at least 150 fibers of each type per sample) onto an image analyzer connected to a computer. The results were analyzed statistically comparing males and females with and without CHD. Type 1 fiber mean lesser diameters were 51.51 and 54.52 µm in males (normal range 34-71 µm) and 45.65 and 55.42 µm in females (normal range 34-65 µm) without and with CHD, respectively; type 2 fibers measured 54.31, 58.23, 41.15, and 49.57 µm, respectively (normal range 36-79 µm for males and 32-59 µm for females). No significant difference in fiber size was detected in 24 males with and without CHD, while in 22 females there was a significant increase in size in those with cardiomyopathy. We concluded that CHD does not determine significant changes in fiber size. However, in females, there is some hypertrophy which, despite within normal range, may reflect morphologic heterogeneity of the sample, or the daily life activities in the upper limbs as a compensatory mechanism to fatigability that affect predominantly the lower limbs in subjects with CHD.

A routine electrocardiogram cannot be used to determine the size of myocardial infarction in the rat

Nine lead electrocardiograms of non-infarcted (N = 61) and infarcted (N = 71) female Wistar rats (200-250 g) were analyzed in order to distinguish left ventricle myocardial infarction (MI) larger than 40% (LMI) from MI smaller than 40% (SMI). MI larger than 40% clearly caused a deviation of ÂQRS and ÂT from normal values of 270-360 degrees to 90-270 degrees. Infarcted rats showed Q wave in D1 larger than 1 mm with 94% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The sum of QRS positivity in V1, V2 and V6 lower than 10 mm identified MI with 82% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The data showed that MI can be easily and reliably diagnosed by electrocardiogram in the rat. However, contradicting what is frequently believed, when specificity and sensitivity were analyzed focusing on MI size, none of these current electrocardiographic indices of MI size adequately discriminates LMI from SMI.

Pressure-induced dissociation of casein micelles: size distribution and effect of temperature

Pressure-induced dissociation of a turbid solution of casein micelles was studied in situ in static and dynamic light scattering experiments. We show that at high pressure casein micelles decompose into small fragments comparable in size to casein monomers. At intermediate pressure we observe particles measuring 15 to 20 nm in diameter. The stability against pressure dissociation increased with temperature, suggesting enhanced hydrophobic contacts. The pressure transition curves are biphasic, compatible with a temperature (but not pressure)-dependent conformational equilibrium of two micelle species. Our thermodynamic model predicts an increase in structural entropy with temperature.

Performance of two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography for the assessment of infarct size and left ventricular function in rats

Although echocardiography has been used in rats, few studies have determined its efficacy for estimating myocardial infarct size. Our objective was to estimate the myocardial infarct size, and to evaluate anatomic and functional variables of the left ventricle. Myocardial infarction was produced in 43 female Wistar rats by ligature of the left coronary artery. Echocardiography was performed 5 weeks later to measure left ventricular diameter and transverse area (mean of 3 transverse planes), infarct size (percentage of the arc with infarct on 3 transverse planes), systolic function by the change in fractional area, and diastolic function by mitral inflow parameters. The histologic measurement of myocardial infarction size was similar to the echocardiographic method. Myocardial infarct size ranged from 4.8 to 66.6% when determined by histology and from 5 to 69.8% when determined by echocardiography, with good correlation (r = 0.88; P < 0.05; Pearson correlation coefficient). Left ventricular diameter and mean diastolic transverse area correlated with myocardial infarct size by histology (r = 0.57 and r = 0.78; P < 0.0005). The fractional area change ranged from 28.5 ± 5.6 (large-size myocardial infarction) to 53.1 ± 1.5% (control) and correlated with myocardial infarct size by echocardiography (r = -0.87; P < 0.00001) and histology (r = -0.78; P < 00001). The E/A wave ratio of mitral inflow velocity for animals with large-size myocardial infarction (5.6 ± 2.7) was significantly higher than for all others (control: 1.9 ± 0.1; small-size myocardial infarction: 1.9 ± 0.4; moderate-size myocardial infarction: 2.8 ± 2.3). There was good agreement between echocardiographic and histologic estimates of myocardial infarct size in rats.

Accuracy in book papers' sales forecasting

The main objective of this thesis was to study if the quantitative sales forecasting methods will enhance the accuracy of the sales forecast in comparison to qualitative sales forecasting method. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general sales forecasting process, forecasting methods and techniques and forecasting accuracy measurement. In the empirical part of the study the accuracy of the forecasts provided by both qualitative and quantitative methods is being studied and compared in the case of short, medium and long term forecasts. The SAS® Forecast Server –tool was used in creating the quantitative forecasts.

Synaptic vesicle pool size, release probability and synaptic depression are sensitive to Ca2+ buffering capacity in the developing rat calyx of Held

The calyx of Held, a specialized synaptic terminal in the medial nucleus of the trapezoid body, undergoes a series of changes during postnatal development that prepares this synapse for reliable high frequency firing. These changes reduce short-term synaptic depression during tetanic stimulation and thereby prevent action potential failures during a stimulus train. We measured presynaptic membrane capacitance changes in calyces from young postnatal day 5-7 (p5-7) or older (p10-12) rat pups to examine the effect of calcium buffer capacity on vesicle pool size and the efficiency of exocytosis. Vesicle pool size was sensitive to the choice and concentration of exogenous Ca2+ buffer, and this sensitivity was much stronger in younger animals. Pool size and exocytosis efficiency in p5-7 calyces were depressed by 0.2 mM EGTA to a greater extent than with 0.05 mM BAPTA, even though BAPTA is a 100-fold faster Ca2+ buffer. However, this was not the case for p10-12 calyces. With 5 mM EGTA, exocytosis efficiency was reduced to a much larger extent in young calyces compared to older calyces. Depression of exocytosis using pairs of 10-ms depolarizations was reduced by 0.2 mM EGTA compared to 0.05 mM BAPTA to a similar extent in both age groups. These results indicate a developmentally regulated heterogeneity in the sensitivity of different vesicle pools to Ca2+ buffer capacity. We propose that, during development, a population of vesicles that are tightly coupled to Ca2+ channels expands at the expense of vesicles more distant from Ca2+ channels.

Sentinel node biopsy in breast cancer: results in a large series

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is an appropriate method for the evaluation of axillary status in cases of early breast cancer. We report our experience in treating cases evaluated using SLNB. We analyzed a total of 1192 cases assessed by means of SLNB from July 1999 to December 2007. SLNB processing was successfully completed in 1154 cases with the use of blue dye or radiolabeled 99mTc-Dextran-500, or both. Of these 1154 patients, 857 were N0(i-) (no regional lymph node metastasis, negative immunohistochemistry, IHC), 96 were N0(i+) (no regional lymph node metastasis histologically, positive IHC, no IHC cluster greater than 0.2 mm) and 201 were N1mi (greater than 0.2 mm, none greater than 2.0 mm). Most of the tumors (70%) were invasive ductal carcinomas and tumors were staged as T1 in 770 patients (65%). A total of 274 patients underwent SLNB and axillary dissections up to April 2003. The inclusion criteria were tumor size equal to or less than 3 cm in diameter, no clinically palpable axillary lymph nodes, no neoadjuvant therapy. In 19 cases, the SLN could not be identified intraoperatively. A false-negative rate of 11% and a negative predictive value of 88.2% were obtained for the 255 assessable patients. The overall concordance between SLNB and axillary lymph node status was 92%. SLNB sensitivity for nodes was 81% and specificity was 100%. The higher sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and lower false-negative rates of SLNB suggest that this method may be an appropriate alternative to total axillary dissection in early breast cancer patients.

Accuracy of dose planning for prostate radiotherapy in the presence of metallic implants evaluated by electron spin resonance dosimetry

Radiotherapy is one of the main approaches to cure prostate cancer, and its success depends on the accuracy of dose planning. A complicating factor is the presence of a metallic prosthesis in the femur and pelvis, which is becoming more common in elderly populations. The goal of this work was to perform dose measurements to check the accuracy of radiotherapy treatment planning under these complicated conditions. To accomplish this, a scale phantom of an adult pelvic region was used with alanine dosimeters inserted in the prostate region. This phantom was irradiated according to the planned treatment under the following three conditions: with two metallic prostheses in the region of the femur head, with only one prosthesis, and without any prostheses. The combined relative standard uncertainty of dose measurement by electron spin resonance (ESR)/alanine was 5.05%, whereas the combined relative standard uncertainty of the applied dose was 3.35%, resulting in a combined relative standard uncertainty of the whole process of 6.06%. The ESR dosimetry indicated that there was no difference (P>0.05, ANOVA) in dosage between the planned dose and treatments. The results are in the range of the planned dose, within the combined relative uncertainty, demonstrating that the treatment-planning system compensates for the effects caused by the presence of femur and hip metal prostheses.

Finite size effects in superconducting nanocomposites

The present Master’s thesis presents theoretical description of the extraodinary behavior of the confined Indium nanoparticles. Superconducting properties of nanoparticles and nanocomposites are extensively reviewed. Special attention has been paid to phase fluctuation, shell and disordered effects. The experimental data has been obtained and provided by Dmitry Shamshur from Ioffe Physical Technical Institute. The investigated material represents a highly ordered system of silicate spheres filled with indium metal, where the In nanoparticles are interconnected between each other. Bulk indium is a superconductor with crititcal superconducting temperature Tc0 = 3:41 K. But indium nanoparticles exhibit different behavior, the critical temperature rise by approximately 20% up to 4.15 K. As well as transition of the indium particles to type-II superconductivity with high critical magnetic fields. Such diversity is explained by finite size effects which originate from nanosize of the samples.

Determination of thermobacteriological parameters and size of Bacillus stearothermophilus ATCC 7953 spores

In order to determine thermobacteriological parameters for B. stearothermophilus spores, they were diluted in a saline solution medium and in ground corn-soybean mix, distributed in TDT tube, and submitted to heat for a specific period of time. The D value (time to reduce 1 log cycle of microbial count under a certain temperature) and z value (variation of temperature to cause 10-fold change in D value) were estimated. To estimate their dimensions, the spores were visualized by using a scanning electron microscope. D121.1 ºC and z values for these spores, as determined in the saline solution, were 8.8 minutes and 12.8 ºC, respectively. D121,1 ºC and z values determined in the corn-soy mix were 14.2 minutes and 23.7 ºC, respectively. The micrographs indicated that the spores have homogeneous shape and size, with length and diameter of 2 and 1 µm, respectively. These results confirm that the spore is highly thermal-resistant, and it is a good biological indicator to evaluate the extrusion process as a feed sterilizer.

Form, size and volumetric expansion of Adzuki beans (Vigna angularis) during soaking

This study analyzed the variation in shape and size of Adzuki beans during soaking at different temperatures. In addition, different mathematical models were fitted to the experimental values of volumetric expansion, selecting the best one. Grains of Adzuki beans (Vigna angularis) with moisture content of approximately 0.25 (decimal d.b.) were manually harvested; they were, then, dried to 0.128 (decimal d.b.). The beans were subjected to soaking in distilled water at the temperatures 18 ± 1, 27 ± 1, 36 ± 1, and 45 ± 1 °C, in five repetitions. Recipients containing 80 mL of distilled water and 20 g of beans for each sample were used. The samples were periodically weighed in order to determine the water absorption. After that, the samples were removed from the recipients and placed on filter papers for two minutes to drain the surface water. Water absorption continued until the beans reached the saturation moisture content. It was concluded that, the form of the Adzuki beans was altered regularly, the orthogonal axes expanded differentially in the radial and axial directions, and that the linear model appropriately described the volumetric expansion of the Adzuki beans, among the series of models analyzed for the temperatures 18, 27, 36 and 45 °C.