Essays on Energy Economics and Industrial Organization

The dissertation consists of three chapters related to the low-price guarantee marketing strategy and energy efficiency analysis. The low-price guarantee is a marketing strategy in which firms promise to charge consumers the lowest price among their competitors. Chapter 1 addresses the research question "Does a Low-Price Guarantee Induce Lower Prices'' by looking into the retail gasoline industry in Quebec where there was a major branded firm which started a low-price guarantee back in 1996. Chapter 2 does a consumer welfare analysis of low-price guarantees to drive police indications and offers a new explanation of the firms' incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee. Chapter 3 develops the energy performance indicators (EPIs) to measure energy efficiency of the manufacturing plants in pulp, paper and paperboard industry.

Chapter 1 revisits the traditional view that a low-price guarantee results in higher prices by facilitating collusion. Using accurate market definitions and station-level data from the retail gasoline industry in Quebec, I conducted a descriptive analysis based on stations and price zones to compare the price and sales movement before and after the guarantee was adopted. I find that, contrary to the traditional view, the stores that offered the guarantee significantly decreased their prices and increased their sales. I also build a difference-in-difference model to quantify the decrease in posted price of the stores that offered the guarantee to be 0.7 cents per liter. While this change is significant, I do not find the response in comeptitors' prices to be significant. The sales of the stores that offered the guarantee increased significantly while the competitors' sales decreased significantly. However, the significance vanishes if I use the station clustered standard errors. Comparing my observations and the predictions of different theories of modeling low-price guarantees, I conclude the empirical evidence here supports that the low-price guarantee is a simple commitment device and induces lower prices.

Chapter 2 conducts a consumer welfare analysis of low-price guarantees to address the antitrust concerns and potential regulations from the government; explains the firms' potential incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee. Using station-level data from the retail gasoline industry in Quebec, I estimated consumers' demand of gasoline by a structural model with spatial competition incorporating the low-price guarantee as a commitment device, which allows firms to pre-commit to charge the lowest price among their competitors. The counterfactual analysis under the Bertrand competition setting shows that the stores that offered the guarantee attracted a lot more consumers and decreased their posted price by 0.6 cents per liter. Although the matching stores suffered a decrease in profits from gasoline sales, they are incentivized to adopt the low-price guarantee to attract more consumers to visit the store likely increasing profits at attached convenience stores. Firms have strong incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee on the product that their consumers are most price-sensitive about, while earning a profit from the products that are not covered in the guarantee. I estimate that consumers earn about 0.3% more surplus when the low-price guarantee is in place, which suggests that the authorities should not be concerned and regulate low-price guarantees. In Appendix B, I also propose an empirical model to look into how low-price guarantees would change consumer search behavior and whether consumer search plays an important role in estimating consumer surplus accurately.

Chapter 3, joint with Gale Boyd, describes work with the pulp, paper, and paperboard (PP&PB) industry to provide a plant-level indicator of energy efficiency for facilities that produce various types of paper products in the United States. Organizations that implement strategic energy management programs undertake a set of activities that, if carried out properly, have the potential to deliver sustained energy savings. Energy performance benchmarking is a key activity of strategic energy management and one way to enable companies to set energy efficiency targets for manufacturing facilities. The opportunity to assess plant energy performance through a comparison with similar plants in its industry is a highly desirable and strategic method of benchmarking for industrial energy managers. However, access to energy performance data for conducting industry benchmarking is usually unavailable to most industrial energy managers. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), through its ENERGY STAR program, seeks to overcome this barrier through the development of manufacturing sector-based plant energy performance indicators (EPIs) that encourage U.S. industries to use energy more efficiently. In the development of the energy performance indicator tools, consideration is given to the role that performance-based indicators play in motivating change; the steps necessary for indicator development, from interacting with an industry in securing adequate data for the indicator; and actual application and use of an indicator when complete. How indicators are employed in EPA’s efforts to encourage industries to voluntarily improve their use of energy is discussed as well. The chapter describes the data and statistical methods used to construct the EPI for plants within selected segments of the pulp, paper, and paperboard industry: specifically pulp mills and integrated paper & paperboard mills. The individual equations are presented, as are the instructions for using those equations as implemented in an associated Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet tool.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

Shooting for the Moon or Flying Too Near the Sun? Crossing the Value Rubicon in Precision Cancer Care

In his last two State of the Union addresses, President Barack Obama has focused on the need to deliver innovative solutions to improve human health, through the Precision Medicine Initiative in 2015 and the recently announced Cancer Moonshot in 2016. Precision cancer care has delivered clear patient benefit, but even for high-impact medicines such as imatinib mesylate (Glivec) in chronic myeloid leukaemia, the excitement at the success of this practice-changing clinical intervention has been somewhat tempered by the escalating price of this 'poster child' for precision cancer medicine (PCM). Recent studies on the costs of cancer drugs have revealed significant price differentials, which are a major causative factor behind disparities in the access to new generations of immunological and molecularly targeted agents. In this perspective, we will discuss the benefits of PCM to modern cancer control, but also emphasise how increasing costs are rendering the current approaches to integrating the paradigm of PCM unsustainable. Despite the ever increasing pressure on cancer and health care budgets, innovation will and must continue. Value-based frameworks offer one of the most rational approaches for policymakers committed to improving cancer outcomes through a public health approach.

Dispositifs optoélectroniques à base de semi-conducteurs organiques en couches minces

Les petites molécules de type p à bandes interdites étroites sont de plus en plus perçues comme des remplaçantes possibles aux polymères semi-conducteurs actuellement utilisés conjointement avec des dérivés de fullerènes de type n, dans les cellules photovoltaïques organiques (OPV). Par contre, ces petites molécules tendent à cristalliser facilement lors de leur application en couches minces et forment difficilement des films homogènes appropriés. Des dispositifs OPV de type hétérojonction de masse ont été réalisés en ajoutant différentes espèces de polymères semi-conducteurs ou isolants, agissant comme matrices permettant de rectifier les inhomogénéités des films actifs et d’augmenter les performances des cellules photovoltaïques. Des polymères aux masses molaires spécifiques ont été synthétisés par réaction de Wittig en contrôlant précisément les ratios molaires des monomères et de la base utilisée. L’effet de la variation des masses molaires en fonction des morphologies de films minces obtenus et des performances des diodes organiques électroluminescentes reliées, a également été étudié. La microscopie électronique en transmission (MET) ou à balayage (MEB) a été employée en complément de la microscopie à force atomique (AFM) pour suivre l’évolution de la morphologie des films organiques minces. Une nouvelle méthode rapide de préparation des films pour l’imagerie MET sur substrats de silicium est également présentée et comparée à d’autres méthodes d’extraction. Motivé par le prix élevé et la rareté des métaux utilisés dans les substrats d’oxyde d’indium dopé à l’étain (ITO), le développement d’une nouvelle méthode de recyclage eco-responsable des substrats utilisés dans ces études est également présenté.

Second Quarter 2016: Slowdown for Large Hotels Continues; Small Hotels Have Now Slowed as Well

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric continues to show a decline in the price of large hotels, and now also the price of small hotels has eased—even though hotel transaction volume has increased. Although debt and equity financing for hotels remain relatively inexpensive, we are concerned that the total volatility of hotel returns is greater relative to the return volatility for other commercial real estate. If this trend continues, lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards. Our early warning indicators all continue to suggest that the downward trend in hotel prices should continue into the next quarter. This is report number 19 of the index series.

Third Quarter 2016: Hotels Exhibit Positive Momentum

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric showed an uptick in the price of large hotels during the third quarter of 2016, with a continued decline in the price of small hotels. Although debt and equity financing for hotels were still relatively inexpensive during this quarter, we remain concerned that the increasing relative riskiness of hotels compared to other commercial real estate suggests that lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards if this trend continues. Our early warning indicators continue to suggest an eventual downward trend in large hotel prices. This is report number 20 of the index series.

Traktorin sähköistysanalyysi virtuaalisimulaatiomallilla

Tämä diplomityö on tehty Lappeenrannan teknilliselle yliopistolle osana yliopiston sähköisen liikkumisen tutkimusta. Työssä on jatkokehitetty ja dokumentoitu Drive!-projektin hybriditraktorin simulaatiomallia, joka toimii Mevea- ja Simulink-ohjelmistoissa. Mevean simulaatioalustalla on mallinnettu traktorin mekaniikkaa ja ympäristöä, kun taas Simulinkillä on simuloitu hybriditraktorin sähkötekniikkaa, dieselgeneraattoria, energiavarastoa ja apulait-teita. Työssä on tarkasteltu traktorin erilaisia maatalouden työtehtäviä ja tämän jälkeen tarkasteltu simulaatiomallin ja simulaatioiden avulla minkälaisella hybriditraktorilla näitä töitä olisi mahdollista suorittaa. Lopuksi tarkastellaan vielä simulaatiomallilla noin 75 kW:n hybriditraktorin toimintaa maatalon pihapiirin työtehtävissä ja lasketaan hybridisoinnin lisäinvestoinnille takaisinmaksuaika. Virtuaalimallilla tehtyjen simulaatioiden ja laskelmien perusteella saatiin tulokseksi, että tämän hetken komponentti- ja energiahinnoilla maataloustraktorin hybridisointi ei ole taloudellisesti kannattavaa. Kuitenkin on huomionarvoista, että ajettaessa pelkällä akkusähköllä käytetyn energian hinta on noin kolmannes verrattaessa perinteiseen dieseltraktoriin.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Arquitetura residencial em João Pessoa-PB a experiência moderna nos anos 1970

In the mid-1980s, the magazine Projeto published the Actual Brazilian Architecture catalogue presenting texts by Hugo Segawa and Ruth Verde Zein with a corpus of works and engaged architects of the 1960s and 1970s. To comprehend the Brazilian architectural production post-1964, in those years of the 1980s, became a significant mission to reactivate the Brazilian architectural debate weakened by the military dictatorship. In his doctoral thesis Spadoni (2003) deals with the different ways which characterizes the Brazilian architectural production of the 1970s. Marked by inventiveness, this production was in tune with the modern thinking and in the transition period between the 1970s and the 1980s it synchronized with the international debate about post-modern architecture. Considering Spadoni s doctoral thesis, this work deals with the modern experience observed in the one-family-houses built in the seventies in João Pessoa. Some modern experiences were not clear outside, to observe it, it was necessary to search for the type of experience into the spatial disposition and of the know-how constructive, because into the appearance some houses not make explicit the use of the modern language. Other observed experiences allude to the repertoire of the Brazilian period in the years 1940s-1960s, to the experience of the modern architecture in São Paulo of the 1960s, to the experiences in which the climate of the Northeastern region strongly influenced the architectural conception. We can also find in a reduced number of houses a particular experience: it refers to experiences that expose the constructive doing, which leave the material apparent and apply to the residential type the experience of the industrial pre-fabricated buildings

“He who plants a tree – Plants a hope.” Reforestation possibilities in Tingana, Peru

Tropical forests have decreased drastically especially in the Peruvian Amazon. In Peru deforestation is caused especially by migrant people; building of houses and infrastructure, clearing land for agricultural purposes and illegal logging and mining. Deforestation results in hindering ecosystem vitality, boosting climate change and decreasing livelihood possibilities. As a counterpoint to cutting down trees there is reforestation, which refers to re-establishment of forest cover. Deforestation and reforestation can be analysed in the light of Forest Transition theory. According to it, due to economic growth, the amount forest cover first diminishes but then starts to increase as the economy in general strengthens. Thus, the research framework is set to this theory. In this study the focus is on analysing socioeconomically sustainable reforestation possibilities in the community of Tingana, Peru. It is situated in a municipal conservation area around which deforestation has been heavy. Land cover change is analysed from LandsatTM satellite images covering a 15 year time period, 1995–2010, in the surroundings of the study area. Semi-structured interviews have been done with a sample size of 25 people and shed light on the perspectives on forests, reforestation and economical activities. The synthesis created from the two methods gives information about the possibilities to enforce reforestation in Tingana and the phase of forest transition in the area. The results show that forest cover has decreased around the surroundings of Tingana leaving the conservation area isolated from larger forest areas. Knowing that forest cover has also decreased inside the conservation area due to agricultural expansion it is certain that fragmentation harms biodiversity causing changes in local climate, which can have knock-on effects for farming and local livelihoods. Therefore reforestation is welcomed when it ensures both conservation and financial benefits and when carried out on locals’ terms. Regarding conservation and incomes the best option would be to plant native timber species together with fruit production species to create agroforestry systems. Economically the community should aim towards an economy that relies on ecotourism as it already practiced in the area. Reforestation could increase ecotourism, which then could in turn increase reforestation via revenues. Regarding forest transition it is likely that forest re-establishment will occur if reforestation along with ecotourism is implemented on long time scale.

Predicción de volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del mercado del azúcar y su aplicación en la razón de cobertura

Este trabajo predice la volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del precio del azúcar, en el período compren­dido entre 1 de junio de 2011 y el 24 de octubre de 2013. Los datos diarios utilizados fueron los precios del azúcar, del etanol y la tasa de cambio de la moneda de Brasil (Real) en dólares. Se usaron modelos multivariados de volatilidad autoregresiva condicional generalizada. A partir de la predicción de los precios del azúcar se calcula la razón de cobertura de mínima varianza. Los resultados muestran, que la razón de cobertura es 0.37, esto significa que, si un productor adverso al riesgo, que tiene la intención de eliminar un porcentaje de la volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del mercado mundial del azúcar, y espera vender 25 contratos de azúcar, cada uno de ellos de 50,84 toneladas (1.271 toneladas), el número de contratos optimo tomando cobertura a futuro será 9 y el número de contratos sin tomar cobertura (de contado) será 16.

Happy and Other Stories

The characters in “Happy,” “The Price of Independence,” “Itch,” and “Guillotine” all struggle with their loss of power and ability to successfully navigate their own lives. Though different genders, ages, and worlds are rendered each character must choose to either face their conflict head on or submit to the external pressure present. “The Price of Independence” and “Itch” highlight the precariousness of relationships and how one relationship, whether it be romantic or platonic, can change everything. “Happy” and “Guillotine” feature characters struggling from within, they are separated from the world around them and their failures force a spotlight on the misconceptions of mental health care.

Dispositifs optoélectroniques à base de semi-conducteurs organiques en couches minces

Les petites molécules de type p à bandes interdites étroites sont de plus en plus perçues comme des remplaçantes possibles aux polymères semi-conducteurs actuellement utilisés conjointement avec des dérivés de fullerènes de type n, dans les cellules photovoltaïques organiques (OPV). Par contre, ces petites molécules tendent à cristalliser facilement lors de leur application en couches minces et forment difficilement des films homogènes appropriés. Des dispositifs OPV de type hétérojonction de masse ont été réalisés en ajoutant différentes espèces de polymères semi-conducteurs ou isolants, agissant comme matrices permettant de rectifier les inhomogénéités des films actifs et d’augmenter les performances des cellules photovoltaïques. Des polymères aux masses molaires spécifiques ont été synthétisés par réaction de Wittig en contrôlant précisément les ratios molaires des monomères et de la base utilisée. L’effet de la variation des masses molaires en fonction des morphologies de films minces obtenus et des performances des diodes organiques électroluminescentes reliées, a également été étudié. La microscopie électronique en transmission (MET) ou à balayage (MEB) a été employée en complément de la microscopie à force atomique (AFM) pour suivre l’évolution de la morphologie des films organiques minces. Une nouvelle méthode rapide de préparation des films pour l’imagerie MET sur substrats de silicium est également présentée et comparée à d’autres méthodes d’extraction. Motivé par le prix élevé et la rareté des métaux utilisés dans les substrats d’oxyde d’indium dopé à l’étain (ITO), le développement d’une nouvelle méthode de recyclage eco-responsable des substrats utilisés dans ces études est également présenté.

Modelagem univariada e regressão múltipla na análise da oferta e do preço do boi gordo no mercado brasileiro

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agronegócios, 2016.