Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

New insights into the long-term evolutionary history of the avian MHC

SummaryGene duplication and neofunctidnalization are important processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. They account for important evolutionary novelties that confer ecological adaptation, such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), a multigene family with a central role in vertebrates' adaptive immune system. Multigene families, which evolved in large part through duplication, represent promising systems to study the still strongly depbated relative roles of neutral and adaptive processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. Detailed knowledge on ecological function and a well-characterized evolutionary history place the mammals' MHC amongst ideal study systems. However mammalian MHCs usually encompass several million base pairs and hold a large number of functional and non-functional duplicate genes, which makes their study complex. Avian MHCs on the other hand are usually way more compact, but the reconstruction of. their evolutionary history has proven notoriously difficult. However, no focused attempt has been undertaken so far to study the avian MHC evolutionary history in a broad phylogenetic context and using adequate gene regions.In the present PhD, we were able to make important contributions to the understanding of the long-term evolution of the avian MHC class II Β (MHCI1B). First, we isolated and characterized MHCIIB genes in barn owl (Tyto alba?, Strigiformes, Tytonidae), a species from an avian lineage in which MHC has not been studied so far. Our results revealed that with only two functional MHCIIB genes the MHC organization of barn owl may be similar to the 'minimal essential' MHC of chicken (Gallus gallus), indicating that simple MHC organization may be ancestral to birds. Taking advantage of the sequence information from barn owl, we studied the evolution of MHCIIB genes in 13 additional species of 'typical' owls (Strigiformes, Strigidae). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that according to their function, in owls the peptide-binding region (PBR) encoding exon 2 and the non-PBR encoding exon 3 evolve by different patterns. Exon 2 exhibited an evolutionary history of positive selection and recombination, while exon 3 traced duplication history and revealed two paralogs evolving divergently from each other in owls, and in a shorebird, the great snipe {Gallinago media). The results from exon 3 were the first ever from birds to demonstrate gene orthology in species that diverged tens of millions of years ago, and strongly questioned whether the taxa studied before provided an adequate picture of avian MHC evolution. In a follow-up study, we aimed at explaining a striking pattern revealed by phylogenetic trees analyzing the owl sequences along with MHCIIB sequences from other birds: One owl paralog (termed DAB1) grouped with sequences of passerines and falcons, while the other (DAB2) grouped with wildfowl, penguins and birds of prey. This could be explained by either a duplication event preceding the evolution of these bird orders, or by convergent evolution of similar sequences in a number of orders. With extensive phylogenetic analyses we were able to show, that indeed a duplication event preceeded the major avian radiation -100 my ago, and that following this duplication, the paralogs evolved under positive selection. Furthermore, we showed that the divergently evolving amino acid residues in the MHCIIB-encoded β-chain potentially interact with the MHCI I α-chain, and that molecular coevolution of the interacting residues may have been involved in the divergent evolution of the MHCIIB paralogs.The findings of this PhD are of particular interest to the understanding of the evolutionary history of the avian MHC and, by providing essential information on long-term gene history in the avian MHC, open promising perspectives for advances in the understanding of the evolution of multigene families in general, and for avian MHC organization in particular. Amongst others I discuss the importance of including protein structure in the phylogenetic study of multigene families, and the roles of ecological versus molecular selection pressures. I conclude by providing a population genomic perspective on avian MHC, which may serve as a basis for future research to investigate the relative roles of neutral processes involving effective population size effects and of adaptation in the evolution of avian MHC diversity and organization.RésuméLa duplication de gènes et leur néo-fonctionnalisation sont des processus importants dans l'évolution de la complexité phénotypique. Ils sont impliqués dans l'apparition d'importantes nouveautés évolutives favorisant l'adaptation écologique, comme c'est le cas pour le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité information obtenue pour cette espèce, nous avons ensuite étudié l'évolution des gènes CMHIIB chez 13 espèces de chouettes "typiques" (Strigiformes, Strigidae). Les analyses phylogénétiques ont révélé que chez les chouettes, selon leur fonction, l'exon 2 codant pour la 'peptide-binding region' (PBR) et l'exon 3 ne codant pas pour la région PBR évoluent de manière distincte. L'exon 2 montre une histoire évolutive de sélection positive et recombinaison, tandis que l'exon 3 retrace l'histoire de duplication et révèle deux paralogues évoluant de façon divergente chez les chouettes, ainsi que chez un limicole, la bécassine double (Gallinago media). Les résultats découlant de l'analyse de l'exon 3 ont montré pour la première fois chez les oiseaux une orthologie de gènes chez des espèces ayant divergé il y a des dizaines de millions d'années. Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons voulu expliquer le pattern surprenant révélé par les arbres phylogénétiques lorsque les séquences CMHIIB des chouettes sont analysées avec les séquences d'autres oiseaux: un paralogue de chouette (appelé DABI) forme un groupe avec les séquences de passereaux et faucons, tandis que l'autre (DAB2) se regroupe avec les gallo-ansériformes, les manchots et les rapaces diurnes. Ceci pourrait être expliqué soit par une duplication qui a précédé l'évolution de ces ordres aviaires soit par évolution convergente dans un certain nombre d'ordres. Grâce à des analyses phylogénétiques approfondies, nous avons pu montrer qu'un événement de duplication a effectivement précédé la radiation aviaire principale d'il y a environ 100 millions d'années, et qu'après cette duplication les paralogues ont évolué sous sélection positive. De plus, les résidus d'acides aminés évoluant de façon divergente dans la chaîne β codée par le CMHIIB interagissent potentiellement avec la chaîne α codée par le CMHII, et que la coévolution moléculaire de ces résidus pourrait être à la base de l'évolution divergente des paralogues CMHIIB.Dans cette thèse sont discutés entre autres l'importance d'inclure la structure des protéines dans l'étude phylogénétique des familles multigéniques, ainsi que les rôles respectifs des pressions sélectives écologique et moléculaire. La conclusion comporte une perspective sur la génomique des populations du CMH aviaire, qui pourrait servir de base pour de futures recherches sur les rôles relatifs joués par Îes processus neutres comprenant les effets de la taille efficace des populations et l'adaptation dans l'évolution de la diversité et l'organisation du MHC aviaire.

Oviposition activity and seasonal pattern of a population of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) in subtropical Argentina

Monthly oviposition activity and the seasonal density pattern of Aedes aegypti were studied using larvitraps and ovitraps during a research carried out by the Public Health Ministry of Salta Province, in Tartagal, Aguaray and Salvador Mazza cities, in subtropical Argentina. The A. aegypti population was active in both dry and wet seasons with a peak in March, accordant with the heaviest rainfall. From May to November, the immature population level remained low, but increased in December. Ae. aegypti oviposition activity increased during the fall and summer, when the relative humidity was 60% or higher. Eggs were found in large numbers of ovitraps during all seasons but few eggs were observed in each one during winter. The occurrence and the number of eggs laid were variable when both seasons and cities were compared. The reduction of the population during the winter months was related to the low in the relative humidity of the atmosphere. Significant differences were detected between oviposition occurrences in Tartagal and Aguaray and Salvador Mazza cities, but no differences in the number of eggs were observed. Two factors characterize the seasonal distribution pattern of Ae. aegypti in subtropical Argentina, the absence of a break during winter and an oviposition activity concomitant of the high relative humidity of the atmosphere.

Improving care for people with long term conditions: 'at a glance' information sheets for healthcare professionals

The Department has produced a series of information sheets for doctors,nurses, those delivering personal health budgets, allied health professionals, health trainers and anyone supporting individuals with long term conditions. The information sheets cover a range of topics including care planning, care co-ordination, managing need and assessment of risk, motivating people to self care, goal setting and action planning and end of life care.Download information sheet 1: Personalised care planning (PDF, 2514K)Download information sheet 2: Personalised care planning diagram (PDF, 2213K)Download information sheet 3: Care co-ordination (PDF, 1967K.

Intracellular pattern-recognition receptors

The last ten years of research in the field of innate immunity have been incredibly fertile: the transmembrane Toll-like receptors (TLRs) were discovered as guardians protecting the host against microbial attacks and the emerging pathways characterized in detail. More recently, cytoplasmic sensors were identified, which are capable of detecting not only microbial, but also self molecules. Importantly, while such receptors trigger crucial host responses to microbial insult, over-activity of some of them has been linked to autoinflammatory disorders, hence demonstrating the importance of tightly regulating their actions over time and space. Here, we provide an overview of recent findings covering this area of innate and inflammatory responses that originate from the cytoplasm

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Professional information factsheet: E. coli O157

This factsheet for health professionals contains information on E. coli O157, a strain of bacteria that can cause severe disease in humans. Information on prevention is included.

Beating cervical cancer: information for girls in Year 9, aged 12-13 (English and eight translations)

This leaflet is distributed to girls in Year 9 and explains about the HPV vaccine which can help protect against cervical cancer.

Northern Ireland cervical screening programme: information for primary care and smear takers

From January 2011, the Northern Ireland cervical screening programme no longer invited women aged under 25 to attend for screening. In addition, the screening interval for women aged 25-49 was reduced to every three years. Thisbooklet describes the rationale for the change in policy so that primary care staff and smear takers can provide appropriate and accurate advice to patients.

Healthy child, healthy future - Information on the child health programme (0-4 years)

This booklet provides parents with information on the first four years of the child health programme for all families in Northern Ireland.

Fish pedicures: Information for the Public

Although the risk of catching an infection as a result of a fish spa pedicure is likely to be very low, it cannot be completely excluded. However, there are certain things you can do to further reduce your risk of catching or spreading an infection when having one of these treatments.Choosing a salonUse your personal judgment: as with all beauty salons, if it looks unsanitary, do not go there for your treatment. If you are very concerned about the cleanliness of a salon you visit, you can report this to your local Environmental Health department, who will be able to perform an inspection of the premises.When having a treatment, a trained member of staff should perform an inspection of your feet both beforehand, to check for any broken skin / infections, and afterwards, to check for signs of bleeding. They should also ask you to wash your feet with soap and water before putting them in the tank, to make sure that any products you have used that could be harmful to the fish are washed away, and to reduce the risk of spreading any infection.Ask your therapist what other procedures the salon has in place to minimise the risk of infection. The Health Protection Agency, England has produced a set of guidelines for salons which, if followed, will ensure any potential risk of infection is kept to an absolute minimum.Before having the treatment The HPA has identified a number of health conditions or prior treatments which may mean that you should not have a fish pedicure. These are:Leg waxing or shaving in last 24 hoursAny open cuts/wounds/abrasions/broken skin on the feet or lower legsInfection on the feet (including athlete's foot, verruca)Psoriasis, eczema or dermatitis affecting the feet or lower legsDiabetes (increased risk of infection)Infection with a blood borne virus such as Hepatitis B or Hepatitis C or HIVAny immune deficiency due to illness or medicationBleeding disorders or on anticoagulant medication (e.g. heparin or warfarinMore information and advice on fish spa pedicures and the full set of guidance can be found on the Health Protection website www.hpa.org.uk

Ku-deficient yeast strains exhibit alternative states of silencing competence.

In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, efficient silencer function requires telomere proximity, i.e. compartments of the nucleoplasm enriched in silencing factors. Accordingly, silencers located far from telomeres function inefficiently. We show here that cells lacking yKu balance between two mitotically stable states of silencing competence. In one, a partial delocalization of telomeres and silencing factors throughout the nucleoplasm correlates with enhanced silencing at a non-telomeric locus, while in the other, telomeres retain their focal pattern of distribution and there is no repression at the non-telomeric locus, as observed in wild-type cells. The two states also differ in their level of residual telomeric silencing. These findings indicate the existence of a yKu-independent pathway of telomere clustering and Sir localization. Interestingly, this pathway appears to be under epigenetic control.

Seasonal pattern of abundance of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Buenos Aires city, Argentina

In Buenos Aires, the most crowded city of Argentina, there is a potential risk of dengue virus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti during late summer. The temporal patterns of oviposition activity and abundance of breeding sites of this vector were studied in two cemeteries of the city. Between September 1998 and August 1999, we examined 142 ovitraps weekly and a total of 18,010 water-filled containers. Both study areas showed remarkable differences in the percentages of positive ovitraps (19% vs 8%) and breeding sites (18% vs 1%), but similar temporal abundance patterns. The percentage of breeding sites was higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter, and the percentage of positive ovitraps was higher in summer than in the other three seasons. Immatures were recorded from the first week of October to the second week of July, and oviposition activity from the third week of October until the end of April. In both cemeteries and with both methodologies the highest infestation levels were registered in March (ovitraps: 41.8% and 20.6%, breeding sites: 39.2% and 3.4%). These highest abundances took place after several months with mean temperatures above 20ºC and accumulated rainfalls above 150 mm. A sharp decline in oviposition activity was observed when monthly mean temperature decreased to 16.5ºC, and no eggs were found below 14.8ºC. Seasonal fluctuation of Ae. aegypti abundances in mid-latitudes like Buenos Aires would allow reduction of the egg mosquito population through the elimination of containers during the coldest months, which are free of adults.

A Step in the Right Direction: An Evaluation of the Fáiltiú Information and Advise Service

The Fáiltiú service provides information and advice on rights, entitlements and options to homeless people, or those at risk of homelessness. The objectives of this evaluation were to assess the information needs of users of the service, how effectively they were being met, and how they could be improved. Two focus groups of staff members and service users gave their views on the design and implementation of the research at the outset of the project. A screening questionnaire identified 78 people who used the Fáiltiú service in a specified time period, of whom 40 participated in the evaluation by giving their views on the service. The study reviewed the literature on homelessness, attempted to define the term, and examined the characteristics of homeless people and relevant Irish social policy. The conclusions reached were: users of the Fáiltiú service are marginalized in a number of ways and share characteristics related to poverty and social exclusion, such as poor educational qualifications, high levels of unemployment and experience of prison; their needs are multi-dimensional and include accommodation, financial, social and medical support, and access to employment and training services: the service needs to respond to these needs in a holistic way.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

2004 National report to the EMCDDA by the Reitox National Focal Point: Norway: New developments, trends and in-depth information on selected issues.

This is the fourth annual report to the EMCDDA from the Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research (SIRUS) on the drugs situation in Norway. The report has been drawn up in accordance with the new reporting guidelines introduced by the EMCDDA this year. We have endeavoured to follow these as consistently as possible, with the main focus on “new developments” and substantial changes in epidemiology, legislation and organisation. To allow readers to obtain more background information the report contains a number of references to the national report for 2003, and occasional references to the report for 2002.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.